This tool allows you to test different market timing and tactical asset allocation models based on moving averages, momentum, market valuation and target volatility. The supported models include:

- Shiller PE Ratio Market Valuation
- Moving Averages - Single Asset
- Moving Averages - Portfolio Assets
- Momentum - Relative Strength
- Momentum - Dual Momentum
- Momentum - Adaptive Allocation
- Target Volatility

You can find a summary of the selected model below, and a more detailed description in the FAQ section.

Shiller PE Ratio (PE10) market valuation based timing model uses shifts the allocation between stocks and bonds as follows:

- PE10 >= 22 - 40% stocks, 60% bonds
- 14 <= PE10 < 22 - 60% stocks, 40% bonds
- PE10 < 14 - 80% stocks, 20% bonds

The moving average timing model is either invested in a a specific stock, ETF or mutual fund, or is alternatively in cash or other risk-free asset based on the moving average signal.
The model is invested in the asset when the end-of-month adjusted close price is greater than the moving average
and the model moves to cash when the end-of-month adjusted close price is less than the moving average.
The model also supports using moving average cross-over as the signal.

The moving average model applies the moving average signal to each portfolio asset.
The model is invested in a portfolio asset when the end-of-month adjusted close price is greater than the moving average
and the allocation is moved to cash when the end-of-month adjusted close price is less than the moving average.
The model also supports using moving average cross-over as the signal.

The relative strength momentum model invests in the best performing assets in the model based on each asset's past return.
The momentum can be based on a single timing period, or multiple weighted timing periods. Additionally the model supports using
moving averages as a risk control to decide whether investments should be moved to cash.

The dual momentum model uses relative momentum to select the best performing model assets
and incorporates absolute momentum as a filter to invest in cash if the excess return of the selected asset over cash is negative.

The adaptive asset allocation model combines relative strength momentum model with different asset weighting. The relative strength model
uses an equal weight allocation for the model selected assets, whereas the adaptive asset allocation uses either inverse volatility based
risk parity allocation or minimum variance allocation for the model assets to minimize the expected volatility.

The target volatility model adjusts the market exposure of the portfolio based on the realized historic volatility and the given volatility target.
The cash allocation in the portfolio is increased or decreased as required to meet the targeted volatility level in order to improve the risk
adjusted performance.