Test Market Timing Models

This tool allows you to test different market timing and tactical asset allocation models based on moving averages, momentum, market valuation and target volatility. The supported models include:

Shiller PE Ratio Market Valuation
Seasonal Model
Moving Averages - Single Asset
Moving Averages - Portfolio Assets
Momentum - Relative Strength
Momentum - Dual Momentum
Momentum - Adaptive Allocation
Target Volatility

You can find a summary of the selected tactical asset allocation model below, and a more detailed description in the FAQ section.

Seasonal Model

Seasonal model moves the portfolio out of market based on specific calendar months. Sell in May and Go Away model is a well-known example that avoids historical underperformance of some stocks in the six-month period commencing in May and ending in October.

Shiller PE Ratio Market Valuation

Shiller PE Ratio (PE10) market valuation based timing model adjusts the allocation between stocks and bonds based on the start of year Shiller PE Ratio as follows:

PE10 >= 22 - 40% stocks, 60% bonds
14 <= PE10 < 22 - 60% stocks, 40% bonds
PE10 < 14 - 80% stocks, 20% bonds

The balanced 60% stock and 40% bond allocation is used as the benchmark portfolio.

Moving Averages - Single Asset

The moving average timing model is either invested in a specific stock, ETF or mutual fund, or is alternatively in cash or other risk-free asset based on the moving average signal. The model is invested in the asset when the adjusted close price is greater than the moving average and the model moves to cash when the adjusted close price is less than the moving average. The model also supports using moving average cross-over as the signal.

Moving Averages - Portfolio Assets

The moving average model applies the moving average signal to each portfolio asset. The model is invested in a portfolio asset when the adjusted close price is greater than the moving average and the allocation is moved to cash when the adjusted close price is less than the moving average. The model also supports using moving average cross-over as the signal.

Momentum - Relative Strength

The relative strength momentum model invests in the best performing assets in the model based on each asset's past return. The momentum can be based on a single timing period, or multiple weighted timing periods. Additionally the model supports using moving averages as a risk control to decide whether investments should be moved to cash.

Momentum - Dual Momentum

The dual momentum model uses relative momentum to select the best performing model assets and incorporates absolute momentum as a filter to invest in cash if the excess return of the selected asset over cash is negative.

Adaptive Allocation

The adaptive asset allocation model combines relative strength momentum model with different asset weighting. The relative strength model uses an equal weight allocation for the model selected assets, whereas the adaptive asset allocation uses either risk parity allocation or minimum variance allocation for the model assets to minimize the expected volatility.

Target Volatility

The target volatility model adjusts the market exposure of the portfolio based on the realized historic volatility and the given volatility target. The cash allocation in the portfolio is increased or decreased as required to meet the targeted volatility level in order to improve the risk adjusted performance.

Timing Model

Time Period

Start Year

First Month

End Year

Last Month

Calendar Aligned

Include YTD

Initial Amount

$ .00

Cashflows

Contribution Amount

$ .00

Inflation Adjusted

Withdrawal Percentage

Frequency

Ticker

Tickers

Single absolute momentum

Absolute momentum asset

Target Volatility

Use Downside Volatility

Out Of Market Start Month

Out Of Market End Month

Out of Market Asset

Specify out of market asset

Buy Signal

Type of Moving Average

Performance Periods

Period Weighting

Timing Period

Timing period in trading days

Type of Moving Average #2

Timing Period #2

Timing period #2 in trading days

Exclude Previous Month

Normalize Returns

Volatility Period

Volatility window in trading days

Assets to hold

Allocation Weights

Risk Control

Risk Window Period

Risk window in trading days

Specify signal asset

Trading Frequency

Signal Asset

Specify signal asset

Trade Execution

Compared Allocation

Benchmark

Benchmark Ticker

Timing Periods

Length

Unit

Weight

Time Period #1

Period 1 length

Period 1 time unit

Period 1 weight %

Time Period #2

Period 2 length

Period 2 time unit

Period 2 weight %

Time Period #3

Period 3 length

Period 3 time unit

Period 3 weight %

Time Period #4

Period 4 length

Period 4 time unit

Period 4 weight %

Time Period #5

Period 5 length

Period 5 time unit

Period 5 weight %

Volatility Period

Volatility period length

Volatility period time unit

Volatility period weight %

Asset 1

Select asset 1

Enter percentage allocation for asset 1 %

Asset 2

Select asset 2

Enter percentage allocation for asset 2 %

Asset 3

Select asset 3

Enter percentage allocation for asset 3 %

Asset 4

Select asset 4

Enter percentage allocation for asset 4 %

Asset 5

Select asset 5

Enter percentage allocation for asset 5 %

Asset 6

Select asset 6

Enter percentage allocation for asset 6 %

Asset 7

Select asset 7

Enter percentage allocation for asset 7 %

Asset 8

Select asset 8

Enter percentage allocation for asset 8 %

Asset 9

Select asset 9

Enter percentage allocation for asset 9 %

Asset 10

Select asset 10

Enter percentage allocation for asset 10 %

Total

Total allocation for portfolio %

Model Simulation Results (Jan 1998 - Dec 2020) Save

Tactical asset allocation model results from Jan 1998 to Dec 2020 are based on dual momentum model holding the best performing asset. Absolute momentum based trend following filter is used to switch any selected assets that have a negative excess return over the risk free rate to Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX). The model uses a single performance window of 12 calendar month(s). Tactical asset allocation model trades are executed using the end of month close price each month based on the end of month signals.

Performance statistics for the timing portfolio and benchmark portfolios
Portfolio	Initial Balance	Final Balance	CAGR	Stdev	Best Year	Worst Year	Max. Drawdown	Sharpe Ratio	Sortino Ratio	US Mkt Correlation
Dual Momentum Model	$10,000	$86,871	9.86%	12.51%	29.87%	-18.27%	-19.71%	0.67	1.00	0.72
Vanguard 500 Index Investor	$10,000	$58,383	7.97%	15.42%	32.18%	-37.02%	-50.97%	0.45	0.65	0.99

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
Name	Annualized Return						Annualized Volatility
Name	3 Month	1 year	3 year	5 year	10 year	Full	3 year	5 year
Dual Momentum Model	12.12%	2.30%	3.89%	7.69%	8.40%	9.86%	16.83%	13.64%
Vanguard 500 Index Investor	12.12%	18.25%	14.03%	15.07%	13.72%	7.97%	18.80%	15.26%
Trailing annualized return and volatility are for full months ending in December 2020 excluding portfolio cashflows.

Notes on results:

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
The backtested performance results are created by retroactively applying the specified investment strategy or methodology to historical data. Backtested models are developed with the benefit of hindsight but might not have foresight of the future.
The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
The selected portfolio allocation for comparison assumes monthly rebalancing
An equal-weight allocation is used for the assets held by the momentum model
The results for the tactical asset allocation model assume monthly rebalancing trades
The relative strength signal is based on total return including dividends
Additional trading costs and taxes for tactical asset allocation models are not reflected in the results
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over the risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
Drawdowns are calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
Refer to the FAQ section regarding the data sources and methodology descriptions

Annual returns for the timing portfolio and various benchmark portfolios
Year	Inflation	Return		Balance		Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX)	Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX)
Year	Inflation	Dual Momentum Model	Vanguard 500 Index Investor	Dual Momentum Model	Vanguard 500 Index Investor	Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX)	Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX)
1998	1.61%	28.62%	28.62%	$12,862	$12,862	28.62%	15.60%	8.58%
1999	2.68%	21.91%	21.07%	$15,680	$15,571	21.07%	29.92%	-0.76%
2000	3.39%	-18.27%	-9.06%	$12,814	$14,161	-9.06%	-15.61%	11.39%
2001	1.55%	8.43%	-12.02%	$13,894	$12,459	-12.02%	-20.15%	8.43%
2002	2.38%	8.26%	-22.15%	$15,042	$9,700	-22.15%	-15.08%	8.26%
2003	1.88%	18.75%	28.50%	$17,862	$12,464	28.50%	40.34%	3.97%
2004	3.26%	20.84%	10.74%	$21,584	$13,803	10.74%	20.84%	4.24%
2005	3.42%	15.57%	4.77%	$24,945	$14,462	4.77%	15.57%	2.40%
2006	2.54%	26.64%	15.64%	$31,589	$16,724	15.64%	26.64%	4.27%
2007	4.08%	15.52%	5.39%	$36,493	$17,625	5.39%	15.52%	6.92%
2008	0.09%	-6.34%	-37.02%	$34,179	$11,100	-37.02%	-44.10%	5.05%
2009	2.72%	9.21%	26.49%	$37,327	$14,040	26.49%	36.73%	5.93%
2010	1.50%	3.93%	14.91%	$38,792	$16,134	14.91%	11.12%	6.42%
2011	2.96%	0.89%	1.97%	$39,136	$16,451	1.97%	-14.56%	7.56%
2012	1.74%	11.29%	15.82%	$43,556	$19,054	15.82%	18.14%	4.05%
2013	1.50%	29.87%	32.18%	$56,564	$25,185	32.18%	15.04%	-2.26%
2014	0.76%	13.51%	13.51%	$64,205	$28,587	13.51%	-4.24%	5.76%
2015	0.73%	-6.60%	1.25%	$59,965	$28,944	1.25%	-4.37%	0.30%
2016	2.07%	6.56%	11.82%	$63,900	$32,365	11.82%	4.65%	2.50%
2017	2.11%	21.23%	21.67%	$77,464	$39,377	21.67%	27.40%	3.46%
2018	1.91%	-7.83%	-4.52%	$71,398	$37,596	-4.52%	-14.44%	-0.13%
2019	2.29%	18.94%	31.33%	$84,919	$49,373	31.33%	21.43%	8.61%
2020	1.36%	2.30%	18.25%	$86,871	$58,383	18.25%	11.16%	7.61%

Monthly returns for the timing portfolio and various benchmark portfolios
Year	Month	Return		Balance		Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX)	Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX)
Year	Month	Dual Momentum Model	Vanguard 500 Index Investor	Dual Momentum Model	Vanguard 500 Index Investor	Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX)	Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX)
1998	1	1.11%	1.11%	$10,111	$10,111	1.11%	3.04%	1.32%
1998	2	7.19%	7.19%	$10,838	$10,838	7.19%	6.88%	-0.10%
1998	3	5.10%	5.10%	$11,391	$11,391	5.10%	3.22%	0.33%
1998	4	1.01%	1.01%	$11,506	$11,506	1.01%	0.53%	0.51%
1998	5	-1.74%	-1.74%	$11,306	$11,306	-1.74%	-1.51%	1.02%
1998	6	4.07%	4.07%	$11,766	$11,766	4.07%	-0.27%	0.81%
1998	7	-1.05%	-1.05%	$11,642	$11,642	-1.05%	1.08%	0.23%
1998	8	-14.47%	-14.47%	$9,957	$9,957	-14.47%	-13.66%	1.90%
1998	9	6.41%	6.41%	$10,595	$10,595	6.41%	-2.07%	1.96%
1998	10	8.16%	8.16%	$11,460	$11,460	8.16%	10.77%	-0.55%
1998	11	6.07%	6.07%	$12,156	$12,156	6.07%	5.34%	0.49%
1998	12	5.81%	5.81%	$12,862	$12,862	5.81%	3.26%	0.38%
1999	1	4.20%	4.20%	$13,402	$13,402	4.20%	-0.63%	0.79%
1999	2	-3.12%	-3.12%	$12,984	$12,984	-3.12%	-2.16%	-1.77%
1999	3	4.00%	4.00%	$13,502	$13,502	4.00%	4.97%	0.56%
1999	4	3.85%	3.85%	$14,023	$14,023	3.85%	5.08%	0.40%
1999	5	-2.39%	-2.39%	$13,688	$13,688	-2.39%	-5.00%	-0.88%
1999	6	5.56%	5.56%	$14,448	$14,448	5.56%	4.39%	-0.50%
1999	7	-3.13%	-3.13%	$13,996	$13,996	-3.13%	2.27%	-0.39%
1999	8	-0.50%	-0.50%	$13,926	$13,926	-0.50%	0.33%	-0.08%
1999	9	-2.74%	-2.74%	$13,545	$13,545	-2.74%	0.82%	1.26%
1999	10	3.74%	6.33%	$14,051	$14,402	6.33%	3.74%	0.33%
1999	11	2.02%	2.02%	$14,336	$14,693	2.02%	4.08%	0.02%
1999	12	9.37%	5.98%	$15,680	$15,571	5.98%	9.37%	-0.48%
2000	1	-6.22%	-5.03%	$14,704	$14,788	-5.03%	-6.22%	-0.17%
2000	2	2.83%	-1.91%	$15,121	$14,506	-1.91%	2.83%	1.18%
2000	3	3.48%	9.75%	$15,647	$15,921	9.75%	3.48%	1.40%
2000	4	-5.41%	-3.00%	$14,800	$15,443	-3.00%	-5.41%	-0.49%
2000	5	-2.67%	-2.04%	$14,405	$15,128	-2.04%	-2.67%	-0.16%
2000	6	4.27%	2.49%	$15,020	$15,506	2.49%	4.27%	2.15%
2000	7	-4.46%	-1.50%	$14,350	$15,274	-1.50%	-4.46%	0.88%
2000	8	1.00%	6.19%	$14,493	$16,219	6.19%	1.00%	1.40%
2000	9	-5.29%	-5.29%	$13,726	$15,361	-5.29%	-5.00%	0.76%
2000	10	-0.43%	-0.43%	$13,667	$15,295	-0.43%	-3.03%	0.57%
2000	11	-7.89%	-7.89%	$12,590	$14,089	-7.89%	-4.44%	1.58%
2000	12	1.79%	0.51%	$12,814	$14,161	0.51%	3.72%	1.79%
2001	1	1.76%	3.55%	$13,040	$14,663	3.55%	1.10%	1.76%
2001	2	0.91%	-9.14%	$13,158	$13,323	-9.14%	-7.61%	0.91%
2001	3	0.54%	-6.36%	$13,229	$12,477	-6.36%	-7.15%	0.54%
2001	4	-0.46%	7.77%	$13,168	$13,446	7.77%	7.89%	-0.46%
2001	5	0.73%	0.65%	$13,264	$13,533	0.65%	-3.52%	0.73%
2001	6	0.52%	-2.45%	$13,334	$13,202	-2.45%	-3.84%	0.52%
2001	7	2.23%	-1.00%	$13,631	$13,070	-1.00%	-2.43%	2.23%
2001	8	1.11%	-6.27%	$13,782	$12,250	-6.27%	-2.30%	1.11%
2001	9	0.89%	-8.09%	$13,906	$11,259	-8.09%	-10.73%	0.89%
2001	10	1.86%	1.90%	$14,165	$11,473	1.90%	2.97%	1.86%
2001	11	-1.34%	7.65%	$13,975	$12,351	7.65%	3.56%	-1.34%
2001	12	-0.58%	0.87%	$13,894	$12,459	0.87%	1.35%	-0.58%
2002	1	0.69%	-1.47%	$13,990	$12,275	-1.47%	-4.63%	0.69%
2002	2	0.85%	-1.94%	$14,109	$12,037	-1.94%	0.90%	0.85%
2002	3	-1.46%	3.74%	$13,903	$12,488	3.74%	5.71%	-1.46%
2002	4	1.69%	-6.07%	$14,138	$11,729	-6.07%	0.42%	1.69%
2002	5	0.80%	-0.75%	$14,251	$11,641	-0.75%	1.16%	0.80%
2002	6	0.29%	-7.13%	$14,293	$10,810	-7.13%	-4.28%	0.29%
2002	7	0.48%	-7.72%	$14,362	$9,976	-7.72%	-9.80%	0.48%
2002	8	1.66%	0.65%	$14,600	$10,041	0.65%	-0.12%	1.66%
2002	9	1.53%	-10.87%	$14,824	$8,949	-10.87%	-10.88%	1.53%
2002	10	-0.61%	8.78%	$14,733	$9,735	8.78%	5.70%	-0.61%
2002	11	0.02%	5.88%	$14,737	$10,307	5.88%	4.75%	0.02%
2002	12	2.07%	-5.89%	$15,042	$9,700	-5.89%	-3.43%	2.07%
2003	1	0.05%	-2.62%	$15,049	$9,445	-2.62%	-3.76%	0.05%
2003	2	1.38%	-1.52%	$15,256	$9,302	-1.52%	-2.42%	1.38%
2003	3	-0.13%	0.96%	$15,237	$9,391	0.96%	-1.93%	-0.13%
2003	4	0.87%	8.25%	$15,369	$10,166	8.25%	9.70%	0.87%
2003	5	1.82%	5.26%	$15,650	$10,701	5.26%	6.15%	1.82%
2003	6	-0.13%	1.26%	$15,628	$10,836	1.26%	2.66%	-0.13%
2003	7	-3.34%	1.74%	$15,107	$11,025	1.74%	3.18%	-3.34%
2003	8	1.93%	1.93%	$15,399	$11,238	1.93%	2.51%	0.61%
2003	9	-1.07%	-1.07%	$15,234	$11,117	-1.07%	2.78%	2.71%
2003	10	6.49%	5.64%	$16,223	$11,744	5.64%	6.49%	-0.96%
2003	11	2.13%	0.86%	$16,569	$11,846	0.86%	2.13%	0.27%
2003	12	7.80%	5.22%	$17,862	$12,464	5.22%	7.80%	0.88%
2004	1	1.60%	1.82%	$18,147	$12,691	1.82%	1.60%	0.86%
2004	2	2.50%	1.38%	$18,601	$12,866	1.38%	2.50%	1.03%
2004	3	0.45%	-1.51%	$18,685	$12,671	-1.51%	0.45%	0.80%
2004	4	-3.14%	-1.58%	$18,097	$12,472	-1.58%	-3.14%	-2.61%
2004	5	0.46%	1.36%	$18,181	$12,641	1.36%	0.46%	-0.43%
2004	6	2.40%	1.93%	$18,617	$12,885	1.93%	2.40%	0.56%
2004	7	-3.34%	-3.31%	$17,996	$12,458	-3.31%	-3.34%	0.96%
2004	8	0.75%	0.38%	$18,131	$12,506	0.38%	0.75%	1.94%
2004	9	2.96%	1.07%	$18,668	$12,639	1.07%	2.96%	0.16%
2004	10	3.24%	1.51%	$19,272	$12,831	1.51%	3.24%	0.85%
2004	11	7.23%	4.05%	$20,666	$13,350	4.05%	7.23%	-0.81%
2004	12	4.44%	3.39%	$21,584	$13,803	3.39%	4.44%	0.92%
2005	1	-1.67%	-2.45%	$21,224	$13,464	-2.45%	-1.67%	0.65%
2005	2	4.68%	2.09%	$22,218	$13,746	2.09%	4.68%	-0.63%
2005	3	-2.93%	-1.76%	$21,567	$13,504	-1.76%	-2.93%	-0.49%
2005	4	-2.07%	-1.91%	$21,121	$13,246	-1.91%	-2.07%	1.35%
2005	5	0.08%	3.17%	$21,139	$13,666	3.17%	0.08%	1.05%
2005	6	1.30%	0.13%	$21,413	$13,683	0.13%	1.30%	0.55%
2005	7	3.68%	3.71%	$22,201	$14,190	3.71%	3.68%	-0.99%
2005	8	2.85%	-0.91%	$22,834	$14,060	-0.91%	2.85%	1.36%
2005	9	4.73%	0.79%	$23,914	$14,172	0.79%	4.73%	-1.10%
2005	10	-3.37%	-1.68%	$23,109	$13,934	-1.68%	-3.37%	-0.81%
2005	11	2.67%	3.76%	$23,725	$14,459	3.76%	2.67%	0.48%
2005	12	5.14%	0.02%	$24,945	$14,462	0.02%	5.14%	0.99%
2006	1	6.87%	2.65%	$26,658	$14,845	2.65%	6.87%	-0.11%
2006	2	-0.72%	0.26%	$26,466	$14,884	0.26%	-0.72%	0.37%
2006	3	3.17%	1.23%	$27,305	$15,067	1.23%	3.17%	-1.00%
2006	4	5.12%	1.33%	$28,703	$15,268	1.33%	5.12%	-0.21%
2006	5	-4.45%	-2.90%	$27,427	$14,825	-2.90%	-4.45%	-0.09%
2006	6	-0.38%	0.13%	$27,322	$14,844	0.13%	-0.38%	0.10%
2006	7	1.15%	0.61%	$27,637	$14,934	0.61%	1.15%	1.35%
2006	8	2.53%	2.36%	$28,336	$15,287	2.36%	2.53%	1.64%
2006	9	0.25%	2.56%	$28,406	$15,679	2.56%	0.25%	0.81%
2006	10	4.00%	3.25%	$29,542	$16,189	3.25%	4.00%	0.72%
2006	11	3.73%	1.89%	$30,643	$16,495	1.89%	3.73%	1.11%
2006	12	3.09%	1.39%	$31,589	$16,724	1.39%	3.09%	-0.48%
2007	1	0.96%	1.49%	$31,893	$16,974	1.49%	0.96%	-0.08%
2007	2	0.06%	-1.97%	$31,911	$16,640	-1.97%	0.06%	1.50%
2007	3	2.80%	1.11%	$32,805	$16,825	1.11%	2.80%	0.02%
2007	4	3.92%	4.42%	$34,092	$17,568	4.42%	3.92%	0.51%
2007	5	3.09%	3.48%	$35,147	$18,179	3.48%	3.09%	-0.78%
2007	6	0.61%	-1.68%	$35,361	$17,874	-1.68%	0.61%	-0.39%
2007	7	-1.06%	-3.08%	$34,986	$17,323	-3.08%	-1.06%	0.84%
2007	8	-0.72%	1.50%	$34,736	$17,582	1.50%	-0.72%	1.34%
2007	9	6.38%	3.72%	$36,953	$18,237	3.72%	6.38%	0.72%
2007	10	5.90%	1.58%	$39,134	$18,525	1.58%	5.90%	0.93%
2007	11	-4.57%	-4.19%	$37,346	$17,749	-4.19%	-4.57%	1.91%
2007	12	-2.28%	-0.70%	$36,493	$17,625	-0.70%	-2.28%	0.22%
2008	1	-8.55%	-6.02%	$33,374	$16,565	-6.02%	-8.55%	1.69%
2008	2	0.33%	-3.25%	$33,484	$16,026	-3.25%	0.33%	0.19%
2008	3	-0.71%	-0.44%	$33,245	$15,956	-0.44%	-0.71%	0.30%
2008	4	-0.30%	4.85%	$33,145	$16,730	4.85%	5.85%	-0.30%
2008	5	-0.79%	1.29%	$32,884	$16,946	1.29%	1.51%	-0.79%
2008	6	-0.01%	-8.44%	$32,882	$15,516	-8.44%	-8.99%	-0.01%
2008	7	0.00%	-0.83%	$32,883	$15,387	-0.83%	-3.67%	0.00%
2008	8	0.70%	1.45%	$33,113	$15,610	1.45%	-5.10%	0.70%
2008	9	-1.10%	-8.91%	$32,747	$14,220	-8.91%	-13.09%	-1.10%
2008	10	-2.53%	-16.79%	$31,917	$11,832	-16.79%	-22.09%	-2.53%
2008	11	3.64%	-7.17%	$33,079	$10,983	-7.17%	-6.29%	3.64%
2008	12	3.32%	1.07%	$34,179	$11,100	1.07%	8.16%	3.32%
2009	1	-0.70%	-8.41%	$33,940	$10,166	-8.41%	-11.96%	-0.70%
2009	2	-0.42%	-10.66%	$33,797	$9,083	-10.66%	-9.58%	-0.42%
2009	3	1.48%	8.76%	$34,297	$9,879	8.76%	9.31%	1.48%
2009	4	0.36%	9.56%	$34,420	$10,823	9.56%	12.78%	0.36%
2009	5	0.85%	5.62%	$34,712	$11,431	5.62%	14.35%	0.85%
2009	6	0.54%	0.22%	$34,899	$11,456	0.22%	-1.32%	0.54%
2009	7	1.43%	7.58%	$35,397	$12,324	7.58%	9.96%	1.43%
2009	8	1.01%	3.60%	$35,756	$12,768	3.60%	3.50%	1.01%
2009	9	1.19%	3.72%	$36,181	$13,242	3.72%	5.15%	1.19%
2009	10	-2.17%	-1.87%	$35,397	$12,995	-1.87%	-2.17%	0.41%
2009	11	3.86%	5.98%	$36,763	$13,772	5.98%	3.86%	1.36%
2009	12	1.53%	1.95%	$37,327	$14,040	1.95%	1.53%	-1.68%
2010	1	-5.07%	-3.60%	$35,436	$13,534	-3.60%	-5.07%	1.57%
2010	2	0.22%	3.09%	$35,513	$13,952	3.09%	0.22%	0.20%
2010	3	6.71%	6.01%	$37,897	$14,791	6.01%	6.71%	-0.08%
2010	4	-1.71%	1.58%	$37,249	$15,025	1.58%	-1.71%	1.06%
2010	5	-10.78%	-8.01%	$33,234	$13,822	-8.01%	-10.78%	0.87%
2010	6	-5.24%	-5.24%	$31,493	$13,098	-5.24%	-1.17%	1.61%
2010	7	7.00%	7.00%	$33,696	$14,014	7.00%	10.33%	0.94%
2010	8	-4.53%	-4.53%	$32,170	$13,379	-4.53%	-3.22%	1.48%
2010	9	8.92%	8.92%	$35,039	$14,573	8.92%	10.41%	-0.01%
2010	10	3.79%	3.79%	$36,366	$15,125	3.79%	3.55%	0.36%
2010	11	0.00%	0.00%	$36,366	$15,125	0.00%	-4.52%	-0.57%
2010	12	6.67%	6.67%	$38,792	$16,134	6.67%	8.34%	-1.15%
2011	1	2.36%	2.36%	$39,707	$16,514	2.36%	0.70%	0.08%
2011	2	3.42%	3.42%	$41,063	$17,078	3.42%	2.71%	0.16%
2011	3	0.03%	0.03%	$41,074	$17,083	0.03%	-0.43%	-0.01%
2011	4	2.95%	2.95%	$42,284	$17,586	2.95%	5.24%	1.32%
2011	5	-2.87%	-1.15%	$41,071	$17,385	-1.15%	-2.87%	1.30%
2011	6	-1.51%	-1.67%	$40,452	$17,094	-1.67%	-1.51%	-0.39%
2011	7	-1.53%	-2.05%	$39,834	$16,744	-2.05%	-1.53%	1.58%
2011	8	-5.45%	-5.45%	$37,664	$15,832	-5.45%	-8.45%	1.46%
2011	9	-7.04%	-7.04%	$35,012	$14,717	-7.04%	-12.29%	0.89%
2011	10	10.91%	10.91%	$38,833	$16,323	10.91%	10.22%	0.16%
2011	11	-0.23%	-0.23%	$38,742	$16,285	-0.23%	-2.88%	-0.30%
2011	12	1.02%	1.02%	$39,136	$16,451	1.02%	-2.64%	1.08%
2012	1	4.46%	4.46%	$40,883	$17,186	4.46%	7.27%	0.87%
2012	2	4.31%	4.31%	$42,644	$17,926	4.31%	5.14%	-0.05%
2012	3	3.28%	3.28%	$44,044	$18,514	3.28%	-0.75%	-0.58%
2012	4	-0.64%	-0.64%	$43,762	$18,396	-0.64%	-1.78%	1.14%
2012	5	-6.02%	-6.02%	$41,128	$17,288	-6.02%	-11.14%	0.95%
2012	6	0.04%	4.11%	$41,143	$17,999	4.11%	6.03%	0.04%
2012	7	1.37%	1.37%	$41,707	$18,245	1.37%	0.44%	1.39%
2012	8	2.24%	2.24%	$42,641	$18,654	2.24%	2.72%	0.03%
2012	9	2.58%	2.58%	$43,740	$19,135	2.58%	3.62%	0.11%
2012	10	-1.86%	-1.86%	$42,926	$18,779	-1.86%	0.56%	0.11%
2012	11	0.56%	0.56%	$43,167	$18,884	0.56%	1.82%	0.19%
2012	12	0.90%	0.90%	$43,556	$19,054	0.90%	4.17%	-0.20%
2013	1	3.34%	5.18%	$45,010	$20,041	5.18%	3.34%	-0.71%
2013	2	1.34%	1.34%	$45,613	$20,309	1.34%	-1.23%	0.54%
2013	3	3.74%	3.74%	$47,318	$21,068	3.74%	0.77%	0.08%
2013	4	1.91%	1.91%	$48,221	$21,470	1.91%	3.58%	0.91%
2013	5	2.33%	2.33%	$49,343	$21,970	2.33%	-2.95%	-1.71%
2013	6	-1.35%	-1.35%	$48,677	$21,673	-1.35%	-3.75%	-1.65%
2013	7	5.07%	5.07%	$51,146	$22,773	5.07%	4.56%	0.20%
2013	8	-2.91%	-2.91%	$49,657	$22,110	-2.91%	-1.63%	-0.64%
2013	9	3.12%	3.12%	$51,207	$22,800	3.12%	7.21%	0.96%
2013	10	4.59%	4.59%	$53,555	$23,846	4.59%	3.41%	0.78%
2013	11	3.03%	3.03%	$55,177	$24,568	3.03%	0.12%	-0.35%
2013	12	2.51%	2.51%	$56,564	$25,185	2.51%	1.25%	-0.65%
2014	1	-3.47%	-3.47%	$54,602	$24,312	-3.47%	-4.78%	1.54%
2014	2	4.56%	4.56%	$57,092	$25,420	4.56%	5.39%	0.48%
2014	3	0.82%	0.82%	$57,563	$25,630	0.82%	0.41%	-0.15%
2014	4	0.72%	0.72%	$57,979	$25,815	0.72%	1.31%	0.77%
2014	5	2.33%	2.33%	$59,333	$26,418	2.33%	1.88%	1.05%
2014	6	2.05%	2.05%	$60,551	$26,960	2.05%	1.74%	0.11%
2014	7	-1.39%	-1.39%	$59,710	$26,586	-1.39%	-1.61%	-0.26%
2014	8	3.98%	3.98%	$62,088	$27,644	3.98%	1.05%	1.13%
2014	9	-1.41%	-1.41%	$61,211	$27,254	-1.41%	-5.01%	-0.72%
2014	10	2.42%	2.42%	$62,694	$27,914	2.42%	-0.31%	0.94%
2014	11	2.68%	2.68%	$64,376	$28,663	2.68%	-0.25%	0.65%
2014	12	-0.26%	-0.26%	$64,205	$28,587	-0.26%	-3.65%	0.09%
2015	1	-3.02%	-3.02%	$62,268	$27,725	-3.02%	0.13%	2.31%
2015	2	5.74%	5.74%	$65,842	$29,316	5.74%	5.52%	-1.08%
2015	3	-1.59%	-1.59%	$64,793	$28,849	-1.59%	-1.54%	0.41%
2015	4	0.95%	0.95%	$65,408	$29,123	0.95%	5.08%	-0.36%
2015	5	1.27%	1.27%	$66,240	$29,493	1.27%	-0.94%	-0.45%
2015	6	-1.93%	-1.93%	$64,960	$28,923	-1.93%	-2.69%	-1.01%
2015	7	2.08%	2.08%	$66,311	$29,525	2.08%	-0.80%	0.76%
2015	8	-6.05%	-6.05%	$62,301	$27,740	-6.05%	-7.29%	-0.36%
2015	9	-2.48%	-2.48%	$60,753	$27,050	-2.48%	-3.90%	0.76%
2015	10	0.01%	8.42%	$60,761	$29,329	8.42%	6.26%	0.01%
2015	11	0.29%	0.29%	$60,935	$29,413	0.29%	-1.32%	-0.27%
2015	12	-1.59%	-1.59%	$59,965	$28,944	-1.59%	-2.07%	-0.38%
2016	1	-4.98%	-4.98%	$56,981	$27,504	-4.98%	-5.59%	1.43%
2016	2	0.66%	-0.15%	$57,357	$27,464	-0.15%	-2.27%	0.66%
2016	3	0.94%	6.78%	$57,898	$29,325	6.78%	8.19%	0.94%
2016	4	0.37%	0.37%	$58,114	$29,434	0.37%	2.22%	0.38%
2016	5	1.78%	1.78%	$59,151	$29,959	1.78%	-1.02%	0.01%
2016	6	0.25%	0.25%	$59,298	$30,034	0.25%	-0.94%	1.94%
2016	7	3.68%	3.68%	$61,478	$31,138	3.68%	4.41%	0.64%
2016	8	0.13%	0.13%	$61,558	$31,178	0.13%	0.74%	-0.17%
2016	9	0.01%	0.01%	$61,563	$31,181	0.01%	1.37%	-0.09%
2016	10	-1.83%	-1.83%	$60,435	$30,609	-1.83%	-1.72%	-0.81%
2016	11	3.70%	3.70%	$62,670	$31,742	3.70%	-2.15%	-2.64%
2016	12	1.96%	1.96%	$63,900	$32,365	1.96%	2.02%	0.24%
2017	1	1.88%	1.88%	$65,103	$32,974	1.88%	3.87%	0.29%
2017	2	3.96%	3.96%	$67,683	$34,281	3.96%	1.50%	0.66%
2017	3	0.10%	0.10%	$67,751	$34,315	0.10%	2.82%	-0.07%
2017	4	1.02%	1.02%	$68,441	$34,664	1.02%	2.20%	0.76%
2017	5	1.39%	1.39%	$69,395	$35,148	1.39%	3.01%	0.67%
2017	6	0.52%	0.61%	$69,759	$35,362	0.61%	0.52%	0.01%
2017	7	3.42%	2.04%	$72,144	$36,085	2.04%	3.42%	0.39%
2017	8	0.64%	0.29%	$72,604	$36,191	0.29%	0.64%	0.85%
2017	9	1.81%	2.06%	$73,917	$36,936	2.06%	1.81%	-0.54%
2017	10	1.94%	2.32%	$75,347	$37,792	2.32%	1.94%	0.11%
2017	11	0.78%	3.06%	$75,936	$38,948	3.06%	0.78%	-0.17%
2017	12	2.01%	1.10%	$77,464	$39,377	1.10%	2.01%	0.44%
2018	1	5.59%	5.71%	$81,796	$41,627	5.71%	5.59%	-1.09%
2018	2	-5.14%	-3.69%	$77,591	$40,089	-3.69%	-5.14%	-1.03%
2018	3	-0.64%	-2.56%	$77,098	$39,064	-2.56%	-0.64%	0.63%
2018	4	0.83%	0.37%	$77,737	$39,210	0.37%	0.83%	-0.83%
2018	5	-1.92%	2.39%	$76,247	$40,149	2.39%	-1.92%	0.61%
2018	6	0.61%	0.61%	$76,708	$40,392	0.61%	-2.08%	0.03%
2018	7	3.71%	3.71%	$79,553	$41,890	3.71%	2.48%	0.03%
2018	8	3.25%	3.25%	$82,136	$43,250	3.25%	-2.19%	0.52%
2018	9	0.55%	0.55%	$82,591	$43,490	0.55%	0.30%	-0.54%
2018	10	-6.85%	-6.85%	$76,935	$40,511	-6.85%	-8.35%	-0.73%
2018	11	2.03%	2.03%	$78,494	$41,332	2.03%	1.26%	0.53%
2018	12	-9.04%	-9.04%	$71,398	$37,596	-9.04%	-4.85%	1.80%
2019	1	1.01%	8.00%	$72,117	$40,604	8.00%	7.58%	1.01%
2019	2	-0.06%	3.20%	$72,072	$41,904	3.20%	1.72%	-0.06%
2019	3	1.94%	1.94%	$73,468	$42,715	1.94%	0.72%	1.96%
2019	4	4.04%	4.04%	$76,437	$44,441	4.04%	2.76%	0.04%
2019	5	-6.36%	-6.36%	$71,572	$41,613	-6.36%	-5.55%	1.83%
2019	6	7.03%	7.03%	$76,605	$44,540	7.03%	5.83%	1.15%
2019	7	1.43%	1.43%	$77,698	$45,175	1.43%	-1.89%	0.23%
2019	8	-1.59%	-1.59%	$76,461	$44,456	-1.59%	-2.35%	2.78%
2019	9	1.86%	1.86%	$77,883	$45,282	1.86%	2.72%	-0.60%
2019	10	2.15%	2.15%	$79,561	$46,258	2.15%	3.38%	0.21%
2019	11	3.62%	3.62%	$82,442	$47,933	3.62%	1.11%	-0.06%
2019	12	3.01%	3.01%	$84,919	$49,373	3.01%	4.27%	-0.15%
2020	1	-0.05%	-0.05%	$84,877	$49,349	-0.05%	-3.30%	2.11%
2020	2	-8.24%	-8.24%	$77,882	$45,282	-8.24%	-6.72%	1.71%
2020	3	-12.37%	-12.37%	$68,246	$39,679	-12.37%	-16.11%	-0.59%
2020	4	1.69%	12.81%	$69,402	$44,764	12.81%	8.09%	1.69%
2020	5	0.54%	4.76%	$69,774	$46,893	4.76%	4.80%	0.54%
2020	6	1.98%	1.98%	$71,154	$47,820	1.98%	4.24%	0.70%
2020	7	5.63%	5.63%	$75,157	$50,511	5.63%	4.10%	1.55%
2020	8	7.18%	7.18%	$80,551	$54,136	7.18%	4.31%	-1.02%
2020	9	-3.81%	-3.81%	$77,482	$52,073	-3.81%	-1.96%	0.08%
2020	10	-2.67%	-2.67%	$75,412	$50,682	-2.67%	-2.21%	-0.61%
2020	11	10.94%	10.94%	$83,659	$56,224	10.94%	12.93%	1.11%
2020	12	3.84%	3.84%	$86,871	$58,383	3.84%	5.82%	0.15%

Portfolio return and risk metrics
Metric	Dual Momentum Model	Vanguard 500 Index Investor
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)	0.85%	0.74%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)	10.72%	9.27%
Geometric Mean (monthly)	0.79%	0.64%
Geometric Mean (annualized)	9.86%	7.97%
Volatility (monthly)	3.61%	4.45%
Volatility (annualized)	12.51%	15.42%
Downside Deviation (monthly)	2.34%	3.03%
Max. Drawdown	-19.71%	-50.97%
US Market Correlation	0.72	0.99
Beta^(*)	0.58	1.00
Alpha (annualized)	5.10%	0.00%
R²	50.42%	100.00%
Sharpe Ratio	0.67	0.45
Sortino Ratio	1.00	0.65
Treynor Ratio (%)	14.50	7.03
Calmar Ratio	0.20	0.71
Active Return	1.88%	N/A
Tracking Error	10.97%	N/A
Information Ratio	0.17	N/A
Skewness	-0.62	-0.60
Excess Kurtosis	1.95	1.16
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)	-5.42%	-7.76%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)	-5.09%	-6.58%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)	-8.24%	-10.09%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)	76.81	100.00
Downside Capture Ratio (%)	61.31	100.00
Safe Withdrawal Rate	10.22%	6.11%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate	7.05%	5.44%
Positive Periods	187 out of 276 (67.75%)	178 out of 276 (64.49%)
Gain/Loss Ratio	0.89	0.84
^* Vanguard 500 Index Investor is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress Period	Start	End	Dual Momentum Model	Vanguard 500 Index Investor
Russian Debt Default	Jul 1998	Oct 1998	-15.38%	-15.38%
Dotcom Crash	Mar 2000	Oct 2002	-19.54%	-44.82%
Subprime Crisis	Nov 2007	Mar 2009	-18.44%	-50.97%

Drawdowns for Dual Momentum Model

Drawdowns for Dual Momentum Model (worst 10)
Rank	Start	End	Length	Recovery By	Recovery Time	Underwater Period	Drawdown
1	Jan 2000	Nov 2000	11 months	Oct 2003	2 years 11 months	3 years 10 months	-19.71%
2	Jan 2020	Mar 2020	3 months	Dec 2020	9 months	1 year	-19.63%
3	Nov 2007	Jun 2010	2 years 8 months	Jan 2011	7 months	3 years 3 months	-19.53%
4	May 2011	Sep 2011	5 months	Feb 2012	5 months	10 months	-17.20%
5	Jul 1998	Aug 1998	2 months	Nov 1998	3 months	5 months	-15.38%
6	Aug 2015	Jan 2016	6 months	Feb 2017	1 year 1 month	1 year 7 months	-14.07%
7	Oct 2018	Dec 2018	3 months	Dec 2019	1 year	1 year 3 months	-13.55%
8	Feb 2018	May 2018	4 months	Aug 2018	3 months	7 months	-6.78%
9	Apr 2012	May 2012	2 months	Jan 2013	8 months	10 months	-6.62%
10	Jul 1999	Sep 1999	3 months	Dec 1999	3 months	6 months	-6.25%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Vanguard 500 Index Investor

Drawdowns for Vanguard 500 Index Investor (worst 10)
Rank	Start	End	Length	Recovery By	Recovery Time	Underwater Period	Drawdown
1	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	1 year 4 months	Aug 2012	3 years 6 months	4 years 10 months	-50.97%
2	Sep 2000	Sep 2002	2 years 1 month	Nov 2006	4 years 2 months	6 years 3 months	-44.82%
3	Jan 2020	Mar 2020	3 months	Jul 2020	4 months	7 months	-19.63%
4	Jul 1998	Aug 1998	2 months	Nov 1998	3 months	5 months	-15.38%
5	Oct 2018	Dec 2018	3 months	Apr 2019	4 months	7 months	-13.55%
6	Aug 2015	Sep 2015	2 months	May 2016	8 months	10 months	-8.38%
7	Jan 2000	Feb 2000	2 months	Mar 2000	1 month	3 months	-6.84%
8	Sep 2020	Oct 2020	2 months	Nov 2020	1 month	3 months	-6.38%
9	May 2019	May 2019	1 month	Jun 2019	1 month	2 months	-6.36%
10	Jul 1999	Sep 1999	3 months	Nov 1999	2 months	5 months	-6.25%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Rolling returns summary
Roll Period	Dual Momentum Model			Vanguard 500 Index Investor
Roll Period	Average	High	Low	Average	High	Low
1 year	9.80%	39.87%	-18.44%	8.38%	53.61%	-43.32%
3 years	9.46%	26.63%	-3.79%	6.69%	25.43%	-16.14%
5 years	9.87%	21.58%	1.04%	6.71%	22.85%	-6.73%
7 years	10.31%	16.81%	5.01%	6.95%	17.12%	-3.94%
10 years	9.96%	13.82%	6.06%	6.45%	16.52%	-3.51%
15 years	10.30%	11.95%	7.98%	6.79%	10.39%	3.64%

Timing periods and related holdings for the timing portfolio
#	Start	End	Months	Assets	Asset Performance	Dual Momentum Model	Vanguard 500 Index Investor
1	Jan 1998	Sep 1999	21	100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	VFINX: 35.45%	35.45%	35.45%
2	Oct 1999	Oct 1999	1	100.00% Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX)	VGTSX: 3.74%	3.74%	6.33%
3	Nov 1999	Nov 1999	1	100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	VFINX: 2.02%	2.02%	2.02%
4	Dec 1999	Aug 2000	9	100.00% Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX)	VGTSX: 1.10%	1.10%	10.38%
5	Sep 2000	Nov 2000	3	100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	VFINX: -13.13%	-13.13%	-13.13%
6	Dec 2000	Jul 2003	32	100.00% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX)	VBMFX: 19.99%	19.99%	-21.75%
7	Aug 2003	Sep 2003	2	100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	VFINX: 0.84%	0.84%	0.84%
8	Oct 2003	Mar 2008	54	100.00% Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX)	VGTSX: 118.23%	118.23%	43.52%
9	Apr 2008	Sep 2009	18	100.00% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX)	VBMFX: 8.83%	8.83%	-17.01%
10	Oct 2009	May 2010	8	100.00% Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX)	VGTSX: -8.15%	-8.15%	4.38%
11	Jun 2010	Apr 2011	11	100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	VFINX: 27.23%	27.23%	27.23%
12	May 2011	Jul 2011	3	100.00% Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX)	VGTSX: -5.80%	-5.80%	-4.79%
13	Aug 2011	May 2012	10	100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	VFINX: 3.25%	3.25%	3.25%
14	Jun 2012	Jun 2012	1	100.00% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX)	VBMFX: 0.04%	0.04%	4.11%
15	Jul 2012	Dec 2012	6	100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	VFINX: 5.86%	5.86%	5.86%
16	Jan 2013	Jan 2013	1	100.00% Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX)	VGTSX: 3.34%	3.34%	5.18%
17	Feb 2013	Sep 2015	32	100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	VFINX: 34.98%	34.98%	34.98%
18	Oct 2015	Oct 2015	1	100.00% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX)	VBMFX: 0.01%	0.01%	8.42%
19	Nov 2015	Jan 2016	3	100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	VFINX: -6.22%	-6.22%	-6.22%
20	Feb 2016	Mar 2016	2	100.00% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX)	VBMFX: 1.61%	1.61%	6.62%
21	Apr 2016	May 2017	14	100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	VFINX: 19.86%	19.86%	19.86%
22	Jun 2017	May 2018	12	100.00% Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX)	VGTSX: 9.87%	9.87%	14.23%
23	Jun 2018	Dec 2018	7	100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	VFINX: -6.36%	-6.36%	-6.36%
24	Jan 2019	Feb 2019	2	100.00% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX)	VBMFX: 0.94%	0.94%	11.46%
25	Mar 2019	Mar 2020	13	100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	VFINX: -5.31%	-5.31%	-5.31%
26	Apr 2020	May 2020	2	100.00% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX)	VBMFX: 2.24%	2.24%	18.18%
27	Jun 2020	Dec 2020	7	100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)	VFINX: 24.50%	24.50%	24.50%
28	Jan 2021	Jan 2021	1	Please sign-in for forward signals	-	-	-