This tool allows you to test different market timing and tactical asset allocation models based on moving averages, momentum, market valuation and target volatility. The supported models include:
You can find a summary of the selected tactical asset allocation model below, and a more detailed description in the FAQ section.
Tactical asset allocation model results from Jan 1998 to Dec 2018 are based on dual momentum model holding the best performing asset. Absolute momentum based trend following filter is used to switch any selected assets that have a negative excess return over the risk free rate to Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX). The model uses a single performance window of 12 calendar month(s). Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX) is compared against the risk-free rate as the absolute momentum check in the model. Tactical asset allocation model trades are executed using the end of month close price each month based on the end of month signals.
Portfolio | Initial Balance | Final Balance | CAGR | Stdev | Best Year | Worst Year | Max. Drawdown | Sharpe Ratio | Sortino Ratio | US Mkt Correlation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dual Momentum Model | $10,000 | $73,922 | 9.99% | 11.94% | 29.87% | -18.27% | -19.71% | 0.70 | 1.05 | 0.70 |
Equal Weight Portfolio | $10,000 | $31,533 | 5.62% | 15.45% | 34.36% | -40.53% | -54.78% | 0.31 | 0.43 | 0.96 |
Vanguard 500 Index Investor | $10,000 | $37,596 | 6.51% | 14.88% | 32.18% | -37.02% | -50.97% | 0.37 | 0.52 | 0.99 |
Name | Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 Month | 1 year | 3 year | 5 year | 10 year | Full | 3 year | 5 year | |
Dual Momentum Model | -13.55% | -7.83% | 5.99% | 4.77% | 7.93% | 9.99% | 10.48% | 10.05% |
Equal Weight Portfolio | -12.61% | -9.52% | 6.85% | 4.61% | 9.68% | 5.62% | 10.48% | 10.70% |
Vanguard 500 Index Investor | -13.55% | -4.52% | 9.11% | 8.34% | 12.97% | 6.51% | 10.96% | 10.95% |
Trailing annualized return and volatility are for full months ending in December 2018 excluding portfolio cashflows. |
Year | Inflation | Dual Momentum Model | Equal Weight Portfolio | Vanguard 500 Index Investor | Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX) | Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX) | Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return | Balance | Return | Balance | Return | Balance | |||||
1998 | 1.61% | 28.62% | $12,862 | 22.11% | $12,211 | 28.62% | $12,862 | 28.62% | 15.60% | 8.58% |
1999 | 2.68% | 21.91% | $15,680 | 25.57% | $15,333 | 21.07% | $15,571 | 21.07% | 29.92% | -0.76% |
2000 | 3.39% | -18.27% | $12,814 | -12.25% | $13,454 | -9.06% | $14,161 | -9.06% | -15.61% | 11.39% |
2001 | 1.55% | 8.43% | $13,894 | -16.11% | $11,287 | -12.02% | $12,459 | -12.02% | -20.15% | 8.43% |
2002 | 2.38% | 8.26% | $15,042 | -18.59% | $9,189 | -22.15% | $9,700 | -22.15% | -15.08% | 8.26% |
2003 | 1.88% | 18.75% | $17,862 | 34.36% | $12,346 | 28.50% | $12,464 | 28.50% | 40.34% | 3.97% |
2004 | 3.26% | 20.84% | $21,584 | 15.71% | $14,286 | 10.74% | $13,803 | 10.74% | 20.84% | 4.24% |
2005 | 3.42% | 15.57% | $24,945 | 10.15% | $15,736 | 4.77% | $14,462 | 4.77% | 15.57% | 2.40% |
2006 | 2.54% | 26.64% | $31,589 | 21.09% | $19,054 | 15.64% | $16,724 | 15.64% | 26.64% | 4.27% |
2007 | 4.08% | 15.52% | $36,493 | 10.41% | $21,037 | 5.39% | $17,625 | 5.39% | 15.52% | 6.92% |
2008 | 0.09% | -5.52% | $34,478 | -40.53% | $12,511 | -37.02% | $11,100 | -37.02% | -44.10% | 5.05% |
2009 | 2.72% | 12.09% | $38,646 | 31.67% | $16,474 | 26.49% | $14,040 | 26.49% | 36.73% | 5.93% |
2010 | 1.50% | 3.93% | $40,163 | 13.12% | $18,636 | 14.91% | $16,134 | 14.91% | 11.12% | 6.42% |
2011 | 2.96% | 0.89% | $40,519 | -6.57% | $17,411 | 1.97% | $16,451 | 1.97% | -14.56% | 7.56% |
2012 | 1.74% | 11.29% | $45,096 | 17.09% | $20,387 | 15.82% | $19,054 | 15.82% | 18.14% | 4.05% |
2013 | 1.50% | 29.87% | $58,564 | 23.44% | $25,166 | 32.18% | $25,185 | 32.18% | 15.04% | -2.26% |
2014 | 0.76% | 13.51% | $66,475 | 4.33% | $26,255 | 13.51% | $28,587 | 13.51% | -4.24% | 5.76% |
2015 | 0.73% | -6.60% | $62,085 | -1.54% | $25,850 | 1.25% | $28,944 | 1.25% | -4.37% | 0.30% |
2016 | 2.07% | 6.56% | $66,159 | 8.25% | $27,983 | 11.82% | $32,365 | 11.82% | 4.65% | 2.50% |
2017 | 2.11% | 21.23% | $80,202 | 24.54% | $34,851 | 21.67% | $39,377 | 21.67% | 27.40% | 3.46% |
2018 | 1.91% | -7.83% | $73,922 | -9.52% | $31,533 | -4.52% | $37,596 | -4.52% | -14.44% | -0.13% |
Year | Month | Dual Momentum Model | Equal Weight Portfolio | Vanguard 500 Index Investor | Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX) | Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX) | Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return | Balance | Return | Balance | Return | Balance | |||||
1998 | 1 | 1.11% | $10,111 | 2.07% | $10,207 | 1.11% | $10,111 | 1.11% | 3.04% | 1.32% |
1998 | 2 | 7.19% | $10,838 | 7.04% | $10,926 | 7.19% | $10,838 | 7.19% | 6.88% | -0.10% |
1998 | 3 | 5.10% | $11,391 | 4.16% | $11,381 | 5.10% | $11,391 | 5.10% | 3.22% | 0.33% |
1998 | 4 | 1.01% | $11,506 | 0.77% | $11,468 | 1.01% | $11,506 | 1.01% | 0.53% | 0.51% |
1998 | 5 | -1.74% | $11,306 | -1.63% | $11,282 | -1.74% | $11,306 | -1.74% | -1.51% | 1.02% |
1998 | 6 | 4.07% | $11,766 | 1.90% | $11,496 | 4.07% | $11,766 | 4.07% | -0.27% | 0.81% |
1998 | 7 | -1.05% | $11,642 | 0.01% | $11,498 | -1.05% | $11,642 | -1.05% | 1.08% | 0.23% |
1998 | 8 | -14.47% | $9,957 | -14.07% | $9,881 | -14.47% | $9,957 | -14.47% | -13.66% | 1.90% |
1998 | 9 | 6.41% | $10,595 | 2.17% | $10,095 | 6.41% | $10,595 | 6.41% | -2.07% | 1.96% |
1998 | 10 | 8.16% | $11,460 | 9.47% | $11,051 | 8.16% | $11,460 | 8.16% | 10.77% | -0.55% |
1998 | 11 | 6.07% | $12,156 | 5.70% | $11,681 | 6.07% | $12,156 | 6.07% | 5.34% | 0.49% |
1998 | 12 | 5.81% | $12,862 | 4.53% | $12,211 | 5.81% | $12,862 | 5.81% | 3.26% | 0.38% |
1999 | 1 | 4.20% | $13,402 | 1.79% | $12,429 | 4.20% | $13,402 | 4.20% | -0.63% | 0.79% |
1999 | 2 | -3.12% | $12,984 | -2.64% | $12,101 | -3.12% | $12,984 | -3.12% | -2.16% | -1.77% |
1999 | 3 | 4.00% | $13,502 | 4.48% | $12,643 | 4.00% | $13,502 | 4.00% | 4.97% | 0.56% |
1999 | 4 | 3.85% | $14,023 | 4.47% | $13,208 | 3.85% | $14,023 | 3.85% | 5.08% | 0.40% |
1999 | 5 | -2.39% | $13,688 | -3.70% | $12,720 | -2.39% | $13,688 | -2.39% | -5.00% | -0.88% |
1999 | 6 | 5.56% | $14,448 | 4.97% | $13,352 | 5.56% | $14,448 | 5.56% | 4.39% | -0.50% |
1999 | 7 | -3.13% | $13,996 | -0.43% | $13,295 | -3.13% | $13,996 | -3.13% | 2.27% | -0.39% |
1999 | 8 | -0.50% | $13,926 | -0.08% | $13,284 | -0.50% | $13,926 | -0.50% | 0.33% | -0.08% |
1999 | 9 | -2.74% | $13,545 | -0.96% | $13,156 | -2.74% | $13,545 | -2.74% | 0.82% | 1.26% |
1999 | 10 | 3.74% | $14,051 | 5.03% | $13,818 | 6.33% | $14,402 | 6.33% | 3.74% | 0.33% |
1999 | 11 | 2.02% | $14,336 | 3.05% | $14,240 | 2.02% | $14,693 | 2.02% | 4.08% | 0.02% |
1999 | 12 | 9.37% | $15,680 | 7.68% | $15,333 | 5.98% | $15,571 | 5.98% | 9.37% | -0.48% |
2000 | 1 | -6.22% | $14,704 | -5.63% | $14,470 | -5.03% | $14,788 | -5.03% | -6.22% | -0.17% |
2000 | 2 | 2.83% | $15,121 | 0.46% | $14,537 | -1.91% | $14,506 | -1.91% | 2.83% | 1.18% |
2000 | 3 | 3.48% | $15,647 | 6.61% | $15,499 | 9.75% | $15,921 | 9.75% | 3.48% | 1.40% |
2000 | 4 | -5.41% | $14,800 | -4.20% | $14,847 | -3.00% | $15,443 | -3.00% | -5.41% | -0.49% |
2000 | 5 | -2.67% | $14,405 | -2.36% | $14,498 | -2.04% | $15,128 | -2.04% | -2.67% | -0.16% |
2000 | 6 | 4.27% | $15,020 | 3.38% | $14,988 | 2.49% | $15,506 | 2.49% | 4.27% | 2.15% |
2000 | 7 | -4.46% | $14,350 | -2.98% | $14,541 | -1.50% | $15,274 | -1.50% | -4.46% | 0.88% |
2000 | 8 | 1.00% | $14,493 | 3.59% | $15,064 | 6.19% | $16,219 | 6.19% | 1.00% | 1.40% |
2000 | 9 | -5.29% | $13,726 | -5.15% | $14,289 | -5.29% | $15,361 | -5.29% | -5.00% | 0.76% |
2000 | 10 | -0.43% | $13,667 | -1.73% | $14,041 | -0.43% | $15,295 | -0.43% | -3.03% | 0.57% |
2000 | 11 | -7.89% | $12,590 | -6.16% | $13,176 | -7.89% | $14,089 | -7.89% | -4.44% | 1.58% |
2000 | 12 | 1.79% | $12,814 | 2.12% | $13,454 | 0.51% | $14,161 | 0.51% | 3.72% | 1.79% |
2001 | 1 | 1.76% | $13,040 | 2.32% | $13,767 | 3.55% | $14,663 | 3.55% | 1.10% | 1.76% |
2001 | 2 | 0.91% | $13,158 | -8.37% | $12,614 | -9.14% | $13,323 | -9.14% | -7.61% | 0.91% |
2001 | 3 | 0.54% | $13,229 | -6.75% | $11,762 | -6.36% | $12,477 | -6.36% | -7.15% | 0.54% |
2001 | 4 | -0.46% | $13,168 | 7.83% | $12,684 | 7.77% | $13,446 | 7.77% | 7.89% | -0.46% |
2001 | 5 | 0.73% | $13,264 | -1.44% | $12,501 | 0.65% | $13,533 | 0.65% | -3.52% | 0.73% |
2001 | 6 | 0.52% | $13,334 | -3.14% | $12,109 | -2.45% | $13,202 | -2.45% | -3.84% | 0.52% |
2001 | 7 | 2.23% | $13,631 | -1.72% | $11,901 | -1.00% | $13,070 | -1.00% | -2.43% | 2.23% |
2001 | 8 | 1.11% | $13,782 | -4.28% | $11,391 | -6.27% | $12,250 | -6.27% | -2.30% | 1.11% |
2001 | 9 | 0.89% | $13,906 | -9.41% | $10,319 | -8.09% | $11,259 | -8.09% | -10.73% | 0.89% |
2001 | 10 | 1.86% | $14,165 | 2.43% | $10,570 | 1.90% | $11,473 | 1.90% | 2.97% | 1.86% |
2001 | 11 | -1.34% | $13,975 | 5.60% | $11,163 | 7.65% | $12,351 | 7.65% | 3.56% | -1.34% |
2001 | 12 | -0.58% | $13,894 | 1.11% | $11,287 | 0.87% | $12,459 | 0.87% | 1.35% | -0.58% |
2002 | 1 | 0.69% | $13,990 | -3.05% | $10,942 | -1.47% | $12,275 | -1.47% | -4.63% | 0.69% |
2002 | 2 | 0.85% | $14,109 | -0.52% | $10,886 | -1.94% | $12,037 | -1.94% | 0.90% | 0.85% |
2002 | 3 | -1.46% | $13,903 | 4.73% | $11,400 | 3.74% | $12,488 | 3.74% | 5.71% | -1.46% |
2002 | 4 | 1.69% | $14,138 | -2.83% | $11,078 | -6.07% | $11,729 | -6.07% | 0.42% | 1.69% |
2002 | 5 | 0.80% | $14,251 | 0.20% | $11,101 | -0.75% | $11,641 | -0.75% | 1.16% | 0.80% |
2002 | 6 | 0.29% | $14,293 | -5.70% | $10,468 | -7.13% | $10,810 | -7.13% | -4.28% | 0.29% |
2002 | 7 | 0.48% | $14,362 | -8.76% | $9,550 | -7.72% | $9,976 | -7.72% | -9.80% | 0.48% |
2002 | 8 | 1.66% | $14,600 | 0.27% | $9,576 | 0.65% | $10,041 | 0.65% | -0.12% | 1.66% |
2002 | 9 | 1.53% | $14,824 | -10.88% | $8,534 | -10.87% | $8,949 | -10.87% | -10.88% | 1.53% |
2002 | 10 | -0.61% | $14,733 | 7.24% | $9,152 | 8.78% | $9,735 | 8.78% | 5.70% | -0.61% |
2002 | 11 | 0.02% | $14,737 | 5.31% | $9,638 | 5.88% | $10,307 | 5.88% | 4.75% | 0.02% |
2002 | 12 | 2.07% | $15,042 | -4.66% | $9,189 | -5.89% | $9,700 | -5.89% | -3.43% | 2.07% |
2003 | 1 | 0.05% | $15,049 | -3.19% | $8,896 | -2.62% | $9,445 | -2.62% | -3.76% | 0.05% |
2003 | 2 | 1.38% | $15,256 | -1.97% | $8,721 | -1.52% | $9,302 | -1.52% | -2.42% | 1.38% |
2003 | 3 | -0.13% | $15,237 | -0.49% | $8,678 | 0.96% | $9,391 | 0.96% | -1.93% | -0.13% |
2003 | 4 | 0.87% | $15,369 | 8.98% | $9,457 | 8.25% | $10,166 | 8.25% | 9.70% | 0.87% |
2003 | 5 | 1.82% | $15,650 | 5.71% | $9,997 | 5.26% | $10,701 | 5.26% | 6.15% | 1.82% |
2003 | 6 | -0.13% | $15,628 | 1.96% | $10,193 | 1.26% | $10,836 | 1.26% | 2.66% | -0.13% |
2003 | 7 | -3.34% | $15,107 | 2.46% | $10,444 | 1.74% | $11,025 | 1.74% | 3.18% | -3.34% |
2003 | 8 | 1.93% | $15,399 | 2.22% | $10,676 | 1.93% | $11,238 | 1.93% | 2.51% | 0.61% |
2003 | 9 | -1.07% | $15,234 | 0.85% | $10,767 | -1.07% | $11,117 | -1.07% | 2.78% | 2.71% |
2003 | 10 | 6.49% | $16,223 | 6.07% | $11,420 | 5.64% | $11,744 | 5.64% | 6.49% | -0.96% |
2003 | 11 | 2.13% | $16,569 | 1.50% | $11,591 | 0.86% | $11,846 | 0.86% | 2.13% | 0.27% |
2003 | 12 | 7.80% | $17,862 | 6.51% | $12,346 | 5.22% | $12,464 | 5.22% | 7.80% | 0.88% |
2004 | 1 | 1.60% | $18,147 | 1.71% | $12,557 | 1.82% | $12,691 | 1.82% | 1.60% | 0.86% |
2004 | 2 | 2.50% | $18,601 | 1.94% | $12,801 | 1.38% | $12,866 | 1.38% | 2.50% | 1.03% |
2004 | 3 | 0.45% | $18,685 | -0.53% | $12,733 | -1.51% | $12,671 | -1.51% | 0.45% | 0.80% |
2004 | 4 | -3.14% | $18,097 | -2.36% | $12,432 | -1.58% | $12,472 | -1.58% | -3.14% | -2.61% |
2004 | 5 | 0.46% | $18,181 | 0.91% | $12,545 | 1.36% | $12,641 | 1.36% | 0.46% | -0.43% |
2004 | 6 | 2.40% | $18,617 | 2.17% | $12,817 | 1.93% | $12,885 | 1.93% | 2.40% | 0.56% |
2004 | 7 | -3.34% | $17,996 | -3.32% | $12,391 | -3.31% | $12,458 | -3.31% | -3.34% | 0.96% |
2004 | 8 | 0.75% | $18,131 | 0.56% | $12,461 | 0.38% | $12,506 | 0.38% | 0.75% | 1.94% |
2004 | 9 | 2.96% | $18,668 | 2.02% | $12,712 | 1.07% | $12,639 | 1.07% | 2.96% | 0.16% |
2004 | 10 | 3.24% | $19,272 | 2.38% | $13,014 | 1.51% | $12,831 | 1.51% | 3.24% | 0.85% |
2004 | 11 | 7.23% | $20,666 | 5.64% | $13,748 | 4.05% | $13,350 | 4.05% | 7.23% | -0.81% |
2004 | 12 | 4.44% | $21,584 | 3.92% | $14,286 | 3.39% | $13,803 | 3.39% | 4.44% | 0.92% |
2005 | 1 | -1.67% | $21,224 | -2.06% | $13,992 | -2.45% | $13,464 | -2.45% | -1.67% | 0.65% |
2005 | 2 | 4.68% | $22,218 | 3.39% | $14,466 | 2.09% | $13,746 | 2.09% | 4.68% | -0.63% |
2005 | 3 | -2.93% | $21,567 | -2.34% | $14,127 | -1.76% | $13,504 | -1.76% | -2.93% | -0.49% |
2005 | 4 | -2.07% | $21,121 | -1.99% | $13,846 | -1.91% | $13,246 | -1.91% | -2.07% | 1.35% |
2005 | 5 | 0.08% | $21,139 | 1.62% | $14,071 | 3.17% | $13,666 | 3.17% | 0.08% | 1.05% |
2005 | 6 | 1.30% | $21,413 | 0.71% | $14,171 | 0.13% | $13,683 | 0.13% | 1.30% | 0.55% |
2005 | 7 | 3.68% | $22,201 | 3.69% | $14,694 | 3.71% | $14,190 | 3.71% | 3.68% | -0.99% |
2005 | 8 | 2.85% | $22,834 | 0.97% | $14,837 | -0.91% | $14,060 | -0.91% | 2.85% | 1.36% |
2005 | 9 | 4.73% | $23,914 | 2.76% | $15,246 | 0.79% | $14,172 | 0.79% | 4.73% | -1.10% |
2005 | 10 | -3.37% | $23,109 | -2.52% | $14,862 | -1.68% | $13,934 | -1.68% | -3.37% | -0.81% |
2005 | 11 | 2.67% | $23,725 | 3.22% | $15,340 | 3.76% | $14,459 | 3.76% | 2.67% | 0.48% |
2005 | 12 | 5.14% | $24,945 | 2.58% | $15,736 | 0.02% | $14,462 | 0.02% | 5.14% | 0.99% |
2006 | 1 | 6.87% | $26,658 | 4.76% | $16,484 | 2.65% | $14,845 | 2.65% | 6.87% | -0.11% |
2006 | 2 | -0.72% | $26,466 | -0.23% | $16,447 | 0.26% | $14,884 | 0.26% | -0.72% | 0.37% |
2006 | 3 | 3.17% | $27,305 | 2.20% | $16,808 | 1.23% | $15,067 | 1.23% | 3.17% | -1.00% |
2006 | 4 | 5.12% | $28,703 | 3.23% | $17,351 | 1.33% | $15,268 | 1.33% | 5.12% | -0.21% |
2006 | 5 | -4.45% | $27,427 | -3.67% | $16,714 | -2.90% | $14,825 | -2.90% | -4.45% | -0.09% |
2006 | 6 | -0.38% | $27,322 | -0.13% | $16,693 | 0.13% | $14,844 | 0.13% | -0.38% | 0.10% |
2006 | 7 | 1.15% | $27,637 | 0.88% | $16,839 | 0.61% | $14,934 | 0.61% | 1.15% | 1.35% |
2006 | 8 | 2.53% | $28,336 | 2.45% | $17,251 | 2.36% | $15,287 | 2.36% | 2.53% | 1.64% |
2006 | 9 | 0.25% | $28,406 | 1.41% | $17,494 | 2.56% | $15,679 | 2.56% | 0.25% | 0.81% |
2006 | 10 | 4.00% | $29,542 | 3.63% | $18,128 | 3.25% | $16,189 | 3.25% | 4.00% | 0.72% |
2006 | 11 | 3.73% | $30,643 | 2.81% | $18,637 | 1.89% | $16,495 | 1.89% | 3.73% | 1.11% |
2006 | 12 | 3.09% | $31,589 | 2.24% | $19,054 | 1.39% | $16,724 | 1.39% | 3.09% | -0.48% |
2007 | 1 | 0.96% | $31,893 | 1.23% | $19,288 | 1.49% | $16,974 | 1.49% | 0.96% | -0.08% |
2007 | 2 | 0.06% | $31,911 | -0.96% | $19,104 | -1.97% | $16,640 | -1.97% | 0.06% | 1.50% |
2007 | 3 | 2.80% | $32,805 | 1.96% | $19,478 | 1.11% | $16,825 | 1.11% | 2.80% | 0.02% |
2007 | 4 | 3.92% | $34,092 | 4.17% | $20,290 | 4.42% | $17,568 | 4.42% | 3.92% | 0.51% |
2007 | 5 | 3.09% | $35,147 | 3.29% | $20,957 | 3.48% | $18,179 | 3.48% | 3.09% | -0.78% |
2007 | 6 | 0.61% | $35,361 | -0.53% | $20,845 | -1.68% | $17,874 | -1.68% | 0.61% | -0.39% |
2007 | 7 | -1.06% | $34,986 | -2.07% | $20,413 | -3.08% | $17,323 | -3.08% | -1.06% | 0.84% |
2007 | 8 | -0.72% | $34,736 | 0.39% | $20,493 | 1.50% | $17,582 | 1.50% | -0.72% | 1.34% |
2007 | 9 | 6.38% | $36,953 | 5.05% | $21,528 | 3.72% | $18,237 | 3.72% | 6.38% | 0.72% |
2007 | 10 | 5.90% | $39,134 | 3.74% | $22,333 | 1.58% | $18,525 | 1.58% | 5.90% | 0.93% |
2007 | 11 | -4.57% | $37,346 | -4.38% | $21,356 | -4.19% | $17,749 | -4.19% | -4.57% | 1.91% |
2007 | 12 | -2.28% | $36,493 | -1.49% | $21,037 | -0.70% | $17,625 | -0.70% | -2.28% | 0.22% |
2008 | 1 | -8.55% | $33,374 | -7.28% | $19,505 | -6.02% | $16,565 | -6.02% | -8.55% | 1.69% |
2008 | 2 | 0.19% | $33,437 | -1.46% | $19,220 | -3.25% | $16,026 | -3.25% | 0.33% | 0.19% |
2008 | 3 | 0.30% | $33,536 | -0.58% | $19,110 | -0.44% | $15,956 | -0.44% | -0.71% | 0.30% |
2008 | 4 | -0.30% | $33,435 | 5.35% | $20,132 | 4.85% | $16,730 | 4.85% | 5.85% | -0.30% |
2008 | 5 | -0.79% | $33,172 | 1.40% | $20,415 | 1.29% | $16,946 | 1.29% | 1.51% | -0.79% |
2008 | 6 | -0.01% | $33,170 | -8.71% | $18,636 | -8.44% | $15,516 | -8.44% | -8.99% | -0.01% |
2008 | 7 | 0.00% | $33,170 | -2.25% | $18,217 | -0.83% | $15,387 | -0.83% | -3.67% | 0.00% |
2008 | 8 | 0.70% | $33,402 | -1.83% | $17,884 | 1.45% | $15,610 | 1.45% | -5.10% | 0.70% |
2008 | 9 | -1.10% | $33,034 | -11.00% | $15,917 | -8.91% | $14,220 | -8.91% | -13.09% | -1.10% |
2008 | 10 | -2.53% | $32,197 | -19.44% | $12,823 | -16.79% | $11,832 | -16.79% | -22.09% | -2.53% |
2008 | 11 | 3.64% | $33,369 | -6.73% | $11,960 | -7.17% | $10,983 | -7.17% | -6.29% | 3.64% |
2008 | 12 | 3.32% | $34,478 | 4.61% | $12,511 | 1.07% | $11,100 | 1.07% | 8.16% | 3.32% |
2009 | 1 | -0.70% | $34,237 | -10.18% | $11,237 | -8.41% | $10,166 | -8.41% | -11.96% | -0.70% |
2009 | 2 | -0.42% | $34,093 | -10.12% | $10,100 | -10.66% | $9,083 | -10.66% | -9.58% | -0.42% |
2009 | 3 | 1.48% | $34,597 | 9.04% | $11,013 | 8.76% | $9,879 | 8.76% | 9.31% | 1.48% |
2009 | 4 | 0.36% | $34,721 | 11.17% | $12,243 | 9.56% | $10,823 | 9.56% | 12.78% | 0.36% |
2009 | 5 | 0.85% | $35,016 | 9.99% | $13,465 | 5.62% | $11,431 | 5.62% | 14.35% | 0.85% |
2009 | 6 | 0.54% | $35,204 | -0.55% | $13,391 | 0.22% | $11,456 | 0.22% | -1.32% | 0.54% |
2009 | 7 | 1.43% | $35,707 | 8.77% | $14,565 | 7.58% | $12,324 | 7.58% | 9.96% | 1.43% |
2009 | 8 | 1.01% | $36,069 | 3.55% | $15,082 | 3.60% | $12,768 | 3.60% | 3.50% | 1.01% |
2009 | 9 | 1.19% | $36,498 | 4.43% | $15,751 | 3.72% | $13,242 | 3.72% | 5.15% | 1.19% |
2009 | 10 | 0.41% | $36,648 | -2.02% | $15,433 | -1.87% | $12,995 | -1.87% | -2.17% | 0.41% |
2009 | 11 | 3.86% | $38,062 | 4.92% | $16,192 | 5.98% | $13,772 | 5.98% | 3.86% | 1.36% |
2009 | 12 | 1.53% | $38,646 | 1.74% | $16,474 | 1.95% | $14,040 | 1.95% | 1.53% | -1.68% |
2010 | 1 | -5.07% | $36,688 | -4.33% | $15,760 | -3.60% | $13,534 | -3.60% | -5.07% | 1.57% |
2010 | 2 | 0.22% | $36,769 | 1.66% | $16,021 | 3.09% | $13,952 | 3.09% | 0.22% | 0.20% |
2010 | 3 | 6.71% | $39,236 | 6.36% | $17,040 | 6.01% | $14,791 | 6.01% | 6.71% | -0.08% |
2010 | 4 | -1.71% | $38,566 | -0.07% | $17,029 | 1.58% | $15,025 | 1.58% | -1.71% | 1.06% |
2010 | 5 | -10.78% | $34,409 | -9.39% | $15,430 | -8.01% | $13,822 | -8.01% | -10.78% | 0.87% |
2010 | 6 | -5.24% | $32,606 | -3.20% | $14,935 | -5.24% | $13,098 | -5.24% | -1.17% | 1.61% |
2010 | 7 | 7.00% | $34,887 | 8.66% | $16,229 | 7.00% | $14,014 | 7.00% | 10.33% | 0.94% |
2010 | 8 | -4.53% | $33,307 | -3.87% | $15,601 | -4.53% | $13,379 | -4.53% | -3.22% | 1.48% |
2010 | 9 | 8.92% | $36,277 | 9.67% | $17,109 | 8.92% | $14,573 | 8.92% | 10.41% | -0.01% |
2010 | 10 | 3.79% | $37,652 | 3.67% | $17,736 | 3.79% | $15,125 | 3.79% | 3.55% | 0.36% |
2010 | 11 | 0.00% | $37,652 | -2.26% | $17,335 | 0.00% | $15,125 | 0.00% | -4.52% | -0.57% |
2010 | 12 | 6.67% | $40,163 | 7.51% | $18,636 | 6.67% | $16,134 | 6.67% | 8.34% | -1.15% |
2011 | 1 | 2.36% | $41,110 | 1.53% | $18,921 | 2.36% | $16,514 | 2.36% | 0.70% | 0.08% |
2011 | 2 | 3.42% | $42,515 | 3.06% | $19,500 | 3.42% | $17,078 | 3.42% | 2.71% | 0.16% |
2011 | 3 | 0.03% | $42,525 | -0.20% | $19,461 | 0.03% | $17,083 | 0.03% | -0.43% | -0.01% |
2011 | 4 | 2.95% | $43,779 | 4.09% | $20,257 | 2.95% | $17,586 | 2.95% | 5.24% | 1.32% |
2011 | 5 | -2.87% | $42,523 | -2.01% | $19,851 | -1.15% | $17,385 | -1.15% | -2.87% | 1.30% |
2011 | 6 | -1.51% | $41,882 | -1.59% | $19,535 | -1.67% | $17,094 | -1.67% | -1.51% | -0.39% |
2011 | 7 | -1.53% | $41,242 | -1.79% | $19,186 | -2.05% | $16,744 | -2.05% | -1.53% | 1.58% |
2011 | 8 | -5.45% | $38,995 | -6.95% | $17,852 | -5.45% | $15,832 | -5.45% | -8.45% | 1.46% |
2011 | 9 | -7.04% | $36,249 | -9.67% | $16,127 | -7.04% | $14,717 | -7.04% | -12.29% | 0.89% |
2011 | 10 | 10.91% | $40,205 | 10.57% | $17,831 | 10.91% | $16,323 | 10.91% | 10.22% | 0.16% |
2011 | 11 | -0.23% | $40,111 | -1.56% | $17,553 | -0.23% | $16,285 | -0.23% | -2.88% | -0.30% |
2011 | 12 | 1.02% | $40,519 | -0.81% | $17,411 | 1.02% | $16,451 | 1.02% | -2.64% | 1.08% |
2012 | 1 | 4.46% | $42,328 | 5.87% | $18,433 | 4.46% | $17,186 | 4.46% | 7.27% | 0.87% |
2012 | 2 | 4.31% | $44,151 | 4.72% | $19,303 | 4.31% | $17,926 | 4.31% | 5.14% | -0.05% |
2012 | 3 | 3.28% | $45,600 | 1.27% | $19,548 | 3.28% | $18,514 | 3.28% | -0.75% | -0.58% |
2012 | 4 | -0.64% | $45,309 | -1.21% | $19,311 | -0.64% | $18,396 | -0.64% | -1.78% | 1.14% |
2012 | 5 | -6.02% | $42,582 | -8.58% | $17,655 | -6.02% | $17,288 | -6.02% | -11.14% | 0.95% |
2012 | 6 | 0.04% | $42,598 | 5.07% | $18,550 | 4.11% | $17,999 | 4.11% | 6.03% | 0.04% |
2012 | 7 | 1.37% | $43,181 | 0.91% | $18,718 | 1.37% | $18,245 | 1.37% | 0.44% | 1.39% |
2012 | 8 | 2.24% | $44,148 | 2.48% | $19,183 | 2.24% | $18,654 | 2.24% | 2.72% | 0.03% |
2012 | 9 | 2.58% | $45,286 | 3.10% | $19,777 | 2.58% | $19,135 | 2.58% | 3.62% | 0.11% |
2012 | 10 | -1.86% | $44,444 | -0.65% | $19,649 | -1.86% | $18,779 | -1.86% | 0.56% | 0.11% |
2012 | 11 | 0.56% | $44,693 | 1.19% | $19,882 | 0.56% | $18,884 | 0.56% | 1.82% | 0.19% |
2012 | 12 | 0.90% | $45,096 | 2.54% | $20,387 | 0.90% | $19,054 | 0.90% | 4.17% | -0.20% |
2013 | 1 | 3.34% | $46,601 | 4.26% | $21,255 | 5.18% | $20,041 | 5.18% | 3.34% | -0.71% |
2013 | 2 | 1.34% | $47,225 | 0.06% | $21,267 | 1.34% | $20,309 | 1.34% | -1.23% | 0.54% |
2013 | 3 | 3.74% | $48,991 | 2.25% | $21,746 | 3.74% | $21,068 | 3.74% | 0.77% | 0.08% |
2013 | 4 | 1.91% | $49,926 | 2.74% | $22,342 | 1.91% | $21,470 | 1.91% | 3.58% | 0.91% |
2013 | 5 | 2.33% | $51,088 | -0.31% | $22,272 | 2.33% | $21,970 | 2.33% | -2.95% | -1.71% |
2013 | 6 | -1.35% | $50,398 | -2.55% | $21,705 | -1.35% | $21,673 | -1.35% | -3.75% | -1.65% |
2013 | 7 | 5.07% | $52,954 | 4.82% | $22,751 | 5.07% | $22,773 | 5.07% | 4.56% | 0.20% |
2013 | 8 | -2.91% | $51,412 | -2.27% | $22,234 | -2.91% | $22,110 | -2.91% | -1.63% | -0.64% |
2013 | 9 | 3.12% | $53,017 | 5.17% | $23,383 | 3.12% | $22,800 | 3.12% | 7.21% | 0.96% |
2013 | 10 | 4.59% | $55,448 | 4.00% | $24,318 | 4.59% | $23,846 | 4.59% | 3.41% | 0.78% |
2013 | 11 | 3.03% | $57,128 | 1.57% | $24,701 | 3.03% | $24,568 | 3.03% | 0.12% | -0.35% |
2013 | 12 | 2.51% | $58,564 | 1.88% | $25,166 | 2.51% | $25,185 | 2.51% | 1.25% | -0.65% |
2014 | 1 | -3.47% | $56,532 | -4.12% | $24,128 | -3.47% | $24,312 | -3.47% | -4.78% | 1.54% |
2014 | 2 | 4.56% | $59,110 | 4.98% | $25,329 | 4.56% | $25,420 | 4.56% | 5.39% | 0.48% |
2014 | 3 | 0.82% | $59,597 | 0.62% | $25,485 | 0.82% | $25,630 | 0.82% | 0.41% | -0.15% |
2014 | 4 | 0.72% | $60,029 | 1.02% | $25,744 | 0.72% | $25,815 | 0.72% | 1.31% | 0.77% |
2014 | 5 | 2.33% | $61,430 | 2.11% | $26,288 | 2.33% | $26,418 | 2.33% | 1.88% | 1.05% |
2014 | 6 | 2.05% | $62,691 | 1.90% | $26,786 | 2.05% | $26,960 | 2.05% | 1.74% | 0.11% |
2014 | 7 | -1.39% | $61,821 | -1.50% | $26,385 | -1.39% | $26,586 | -1.39% | -1.61% | -0.26% |
2014 | 8 | 3.98% | $64,282 | 2.52% | $27,049 | 3.98% | $27,644 | 3.98% | 1.05% | 1.13% |
2014 | 9 | -1.41% | $63,374 | -3.21% | $26,180 | -1.41% | $27,254 | -1.41% | -5.01% | -0.72% |
2014 | 10 | 2.42% | $64,910 | 1.06% | $26,457 | 2.42% | $27,914 | 2.42% | -0.31% | 0.94% |
2014 | 11 | 2.68% | $66,651 | 1.22% | $26,779 | 2.68% | $28,663 | 2.68% | -0.25% | 0.65% |
2014 | 12 | -0.26% | $66,475 | -1.96% | $26,255 | -0.26% | $28,587 | -0.26% | -3.65% | 0.09% |
2015 | 1 | -3.02% | $64,469 | -1.44% | $25,876 | -3.02% | $27,725 | -3.02% | 0.13% | 2.31% |
2015 | 2 | 5.74% | $68,169 | 5.63% | $27,333 | 5.74% | $29,316 | 5.74% | 5.52% | -1.08% |
2015 | 3 | -1.59% | $67,083 | -1.57% | $26,904 | -1.59% | $28,849 | -1.59% | -1.54% | 0.41% |
2015 | 4 | 0.95% | $67,719 | 3.02% | $27,716 | 0.95% | $29,123 | 0.95% | 5.08% | -0.36% |
2015 | 5 | 1.27% | $68,581 | 0.16% | $27,762 | 1.27% | $29,493 | 1.27% | -0.94% | -0.45% |
2015 | 6 | -1.93% | $67,256 | -2.31% | $27,120 | -1.93% | $28,923 | -1.93% | -2.69% | -1.01% |
2015 | 7 | 2.08% | $68,655 | 0.64% | $27,293 | 2.08% | $29,525 | 2.08% | -0.80% | 0.76% |
2015 | 8 | -6.05% | $64,503 | -6.67% | $25,472 | -6.05% | $27,740 | -6.05% | -7.29% | -0.36% |
2015 | 9 | -2.48% | $62,901 | -3.19% | $24,659 | -2.48% | $27,050 | -2.48% | -3.90% | 0.76% |
2015 | 10 | 0.01% | $62,909 | 7.34% | $26,470 | 8.42% | $29,329 | 8.42% | 6.26% | 0.01% |
2015 | 11 | 0.29% | $63,089 | -0.52% | $26,332 | 0.29% | $29,413 | 0.29% | -1.32% | -0.27% |
2015 | 12 | -1.59% | $62,085 | -1.83% | $25,850 | -1.59% | $28,944 | -1.59% | -2.07% | -0.38% |
2016 | 1 | -4.98% | $58,995 | -5.28% | $24,485 | -4.98% | $27,504 | -4.98% | -5.59% | 1.43% |
2016 | 2 | 0.66% | $59,384 | -1.21% | $24,189 | -0.15% | $27,464 | -0.15% | -2.27% | 0.66% |
2016 | 3 | 0.94% | $59,945 | 7.48% | $25,999 | 6.78% | $29,325 | 6.78% | 8.19% | 0.94% |
2016 | 4 | 0.37% | $60,169 | 1.30% | $26,336 | 0.37% | $29,434 | 0.37% | 2.22% | 0.38% |
2016 | 5 | 1.78% | $61,241 | 0.38% | $26,437 | 1.78% | $29,959 | 1.78% | -1.02% | 0.01% |
2016 | 6 | 0.25% | $61,394 | -0.35% | $26,345 | 0.25% | $30,034 | 0.25% | -0.94% | 1.94% |
2016 | 7 | 3.68% | $63,652 | 4.04% | $27,410 | 3.68% | $31,138 | 3.68% | 4.41% | 0.64% |
2016 | 8 | 0.13% | $63,734 | 0.43% | $27,529 | 0.13% | $31,178 | 0.13% | 0.74% | -0.17% |
2016 | 9 | 0.01% | $63,739 | 0.69% | $27,719 | 0.01% | $31,181 | 0.01% | 1.37% | -0.09% |
2016 | 10 | -1.83% | $62,571 | -1.78% | $27,226 | -1.83% | $30,609 | -1.83% | -1.72% | -0.81% |
2016 | 11 | 3.70% | $64,885 | 0.77% | $27,437 | 3.70% | $31,742 | 3.70% | -2.15% | -2.64% |
2016 | 12 | 1.96% | $66,159 | 1.99% | $27,983 | 1.96% | $32,365 | 1.96% | 2.02% | 0.24% |
2017 | 1 | 1.88% | $67,405 | 2.88% | $28,788 | 1.88% | $32,974 | 1.88% | 3.87% | 0.29% |
2017 | 2 | 3.96% | $70,076 | 2.73% | $29,575 | 3.96% | $34,281 | 3.96% | 1.50% | 0.66% |
2017 | 3 | 0.10% | $70,146 | 1.46% | $30,007 | 0.10% | $34,315 | 0.10% | 2.82% | -0.07% |
2017 | 4 | 1.02% | $70,860 | 1.61% | $30,490 | 1.02% | $34,664 | 1.02% | 2.20% | 0.76% |
2017 | 5 | 1.39% | $71,848 | 2.20% | $31,161 | 1.39% | $35,148 | 1.39% | 3.01% | 0.67% |
2017 | 6 | 0.52% | $72,225 | 0.57% | $31,338 | 0.61% | $35,362 | 0.61% | 0.52% | 0.01% |
2017 | 7 | 3.42% | $74,694 | 2.73% | $32,194 | 2.04% | $36,085 | 2.04% | 3.42% | 0.39% |
2017 | 8 | 0.64% | $75,171 | 0.47% | $32,344 | 0.29% | $36,191 | 0.29% | 0.64% | 0.85% |
2017 | 9 | 1.81% | $76,529 | 1.93% | $32,969 | 2.06% | $36,936 | 2.06% | 1.81% | -0.54% |
2017 | 10 | 1.94% | $78,010 | 2.13% | $33,670 | 2.32% | $37,792 | 2.32% | 1.94% | 0.11% |
2017 | 11 | 0.78% | $78,620 | 1.92% | $34,317 | 3.06% | $38,948 | 3.06% | 0.78% | -0.17% |
2017 | 12 | 2.01% | $80,202 | 1.56% | $34,851 | 1.10% | $39,377 | 1.10% | 2.01% | 0.44% |
2018 | 1 | 5.59% | $84,687 | 5.65% | $36,821 | 5.71% | $41,627 | 5.71% | 5.59% | -1.09% |
2018 | 2 | -5.14% | $80,334 | -4.42% | $35,195 | -3.69% | $40,089 | -3.69% | -5.14% | -1.03% |
2018 | 3 | -0.64% | $79,823 | -1.60% | $34,633 | -2.56% | $39,064 | -2.56% | -0.64% | 0.63% |
2018 | 4 | 0.83% | $80,485 | 0.60% | $34,841 | 0.37% | $39,210 | 0.37% | 0.83% | -0.83% |
2018 | 5 | -1.92% | $78,942 | 0.24% | $34,924 | 2.39% | $40,149 | 2.39% | -1.92% | 0.61% |
2018 | 6 | 0.61% | $79,420 | -0.74% | $34,667 | 0.61% | $40,392 | 0.61% | -2.08% | 0.03% |
2018 | 7 | 3.71% | $82,365 | 3.09% | $35,739 | 3.71% | $41,890 | 3.71% | 2.48% | 0.03% |
2018 | 8 | 3.25% | $85,039 | 0.53% | $35,927 | 3.25% | $43,250 | 3.25% | -2.19% | 0.52% |
2018 | 9 | 0.55% | $85,511 | 0.43% | $36,081 | 0.55% | $43,490 | 0.55% | 0.30% | -0.54% |
2018 | 10 | -6.85% | $79,654 | -7.60% | $33,339 | -6.85% | $40,511 | -6.85% | -8.35% | -0.73% |
2018 | 11 | 2.03% | $81,268 | 1.64% | $33,886 | 2.03% | $41,332 | 2.03% | 1.26% | 0.53% |
2018 | 12 | -9.04% | $73,922 | -6.94% | $31,533 | -9.04% | $37,596 | -9.04% | -4.85% | 1.80% |
Metric | Dual Momentum Model | Equal Weight Portfolio | Vanguard 500 Index Investor |
---|---|---|---|
Arithmetic Mean (monthly) | 0.86% | 0.56% | 0.62% |
Arithmetic Mean (annualized) | 10.78% | 6.90% | 7.70% |
Geometric Mean (monthly) | 0.80% | 0.46% | 0.53% |
Geometric Mean (annualized) | 9.99% | 5.62% | 6.51% |
Volatility (monthly) | 3.45% | 4.46% | 4.30% |
Volatility (annualized) | 11.94% | 15.45% | 14.88% |
Downside Deviation (monthly) | 2.21% | 3.14% | 2.98% |
Max. Drawdown | -19.71% | -54.78% | -50.97% |
US Market Correlation | 0.70 | 0.96 | 0.99 |
Beta(*) | 0.55 | 0.99 | 1.00 |
Alpha (annualized) | 6.21% | -0.71% | -0.00% |
R2 | 46.43% | 91.77% | 100.00% |
Sharpe Ratio | 0.70 | 0.31 | 0.37 |
Sortino Ratio | 1.05 | 0.43 | 0.52 |
Treynor Ratio (%) | 15.28 | 4.79 | 5.52 |
Calmar Ratio | 0.44 | 0.48 | 0.67 |
Active Return | 3.48% | -0.89% | N/A |
Tracking Error | 11.04% | 4.43% | N/A |
Information Ratio | 0.32 | -0.20 | N/A |
Skewness | -0.60 | -0.72 | -0.67 |
Excess Kurtosis | 1.96 | 1.73 | 1.25 |
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%) | -5.26% | -7.95% | -7.42% |
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%) | -4.81% | -6.78% | -6.45% |
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%) | -7.62% | -10.66% | -9.88% |
Upside Capture Ratio (%) | 78.56 | 98.08 | 100.00 |
Downside Capture Ratio (%) | 56.18 | 101.79 | 100.00 |
Safe Withdrawal Rate | 10.74% | 6.43% | 6.34% |
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate | 7.15% | 3.31% | 4.11% |
Positive Periods | 173 out of 252 (68.65%) | 153 out of 252 (60.71%) | 161 out of 252 (63.89%) |
Gain/Loss Ratio | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.81 |
* Vanguard 500 Index Investor is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values. |
Stress Period | Start | End | Dual Momentum Model | Equal Weight Portfolio | Vanguard 500 Index Investor |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Russian Debt Default | Jul 1998 | Oct 1998 | -15.38% | -14.07% | -15.38% |
Dotcom Crash | Mar 2000 | Oct 2002 | -19.54% | -44.94% | -44.82% |
Subprime Crisis | Nov 2007 | Mar 2009 | -17.73% | -54.78% | -50.97% |
Rank | Start | End | Length | Recovery By | Recovery Time | Underwater Period | Drawdown |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jan 2000 | Nov 2000 | 11 months | Oct 2003 | 2 years 11 months | 3 years 10 months | -19.71% |
2 | Nov 2007 | Oct 2008 | 1 year | Mar 2010 | 1 year 5 months | 2 years 5 months | -17.73% |
3 | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 months | Feb 2012 | 5 months | 10 months | -17.20% |
4 | Apr 2010 | Jun 2010 | 3 months | Dec 2010 | 6 months | 9 months | -16.90% |
5 | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 months | Nov 1998 | 3 months | 5 months | -15.38% |
6 | Aug 2015 | Jan 2016 | 6 months | Feb 2017 | 1 year 1 month | 1 year 7 months | -14.07% |
7 | Oct 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 months | -13.55% | |||
8 | Feb 2018 | May 2018 | 4 months | Aug 2018 | 3 months | 7 months | -6.78% |
9 | Apr 2012 | May 2012 | 2 months | Jan 2013 | 8 months | 10 months | -6.62% |
10 | Jul 1999 | Sep 1999 | 3 months | Dec 1999 | 3 months | 6 months | -6.25% |
Worst 10 drawdowns included above |
Rank | Start | End | Length | Recovery By | Recovery Time | Underwater Period | Drawdown |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 1 year 4 months | Apr 2013 | 4 years 2 months | 5 years 6 months | -54.78% |
2 | Apr 2000 | Sep 2002 | 2 years 6 months | Dec 2005 | 3 years 3 months | 5 years 9 months | -44.94% |
3 | Feb 2018 | Dec 2018 | 11 months | -14.36% | |||
4 | Aug 1998 | Aug 1998 | 1 month | Nov 1998 | 3 months | 4 months | -14.07% |
5 | Jun 2015 | Feb 2016 | 9 months | Dec 2016 | 10 months | 1 year 7 months | -12.87% |
6 | Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 month | Mar 2000 | 2 months | 3 months | -5.63% |
7 | Sep 2014 | Jan 2015 | 5 months | Feb 2015 | 1 month | 6 months | -4.34% |
8 | Jan 2014 | Jan 2014 | 1 month | Feb 2014 | 1 month | 2 months | -4.12% |
9 | May 2006 | Jun 2006 | 2 months | Sep 2006 | 3 months | 5 months | -3.79% |
10 | May 1999 | May 1999 | 1 month | Jun 1999 | 1 month | 2 months | -3.70% |
Worst 10 drawdowns included above |
Rank | Start | End | Length | Recovery By | Recovery Time | Underwater Period | Drawdown |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 1 year 4 months | Aug 2012 | 3 years 6 months | 4 years 10 months | -50.97% |
2 | Sep 2000 | Sep 2002 | 2 years 1 month | Nov 2006 | 4 years 2 months | 6 years 3 months | -44.82% |
3 | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 months | Nov 1998 | 3 months | 5 months | -15.38% |
4 | Oct 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 months | -13.55% | |||
5 | Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 2 months | May 2016 | 8 months | 10 months | -8.38% |
6 | Jan 2000 | Feb 2000 | 2 months | Mar 2000 | 1 month | 3 months | -6.84% |
7 | Jul 1999 | Sep 1999 | 3 months | Nov 1999 | 2 months | 5 months | -6.25% |
8 | Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 2 months | Jul 2018 | 4 months | 6 months | -6.16% |
9 | Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 2 months | Aug 2000 | 3 months | 5 months | -4.98% |
10 | Jun 2007 | Jul 2007 | 2 months | Sep 2007 | 2 months | 4 months | -4.71% |
Worst 10 drawdowns included above |
Roll Period | Dual Momentum Model | Equal Weight Portfolio | Vanguard 500 Index Investor | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average | High | Low | Average | High | Low | Average | High | Low | |
1 year | 11.04% | 39.87% | -18.27% | 7.63% | 58.62% | -47.45% | 8.17% | 53.61% | -43.32% |
3 years | 10.10% | 26.63% | -2.67% | 5.45% | 24.65% | -17.58% | 6.04% | 25.43% | -16.14% |
5 years | 10.78% | 21.58% | 2.58% | 5.77% | 20.33% | -5.28% | 6.17% | 22.85% | -6.73% |
7 years | 10.98% | 16.81% | 7.50% | 5.90% | 13.29% | -1.06% | 6.12% | 17.12% | -3.94% |
10 years | 10.62% | 13.82% | 7.14% | 5.05% | 10.98% | -1.79% | 5.14% | 14.17% | -3.51% |
15 years | 10.93% | 12.21% | 9.93% | 5.93% | 9.93% | 3.56% | 6.14% | 10.39% | 3.64% |
# | Start | End | Months | Assets | Asset Performance | Dual Momentum Model | Equal Weight Portfolio | Vanguard 500 Index Investor |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 | Jan 2019 | Jan 2019 | 1 | Please sign-in for forward signals | - | - | - | - |
23 | Jun 2018 | Dec 2018 | 7 | 100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX) | VFINX: -6.36% | -6.36% | -9.71% | -6.36% |
22 | Jun 2017 | May 2018 | 12 | 100.00% Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX) | VGTSX: 9.87% | 9.87% | 12.08% | 14.23% |
21 | Apr 2016 | May 2017 | 14 | 100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX) | VFINX: 19.86% | 19.86% | 19.86% | 19.86% |
20 | Feb 2016 | Mar 2016 | 2 | 100.00% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX) | VBMFX: 1.61% | 1.61% | 6.18% | 6.62% |
19 | Nov 2015 | Jan 2016 | 3 | 100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX) | VFINX: -6.22% | -6.22% | -7.50% | -6.22% |
18 | Oct 2015 | Oct 2015 | 1 | 100.00% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX) | VBMFX: 0.01% | 0.01% | 7.34% | 8.42% |
17 | Feb 2013 | Sep 2015 | 32 | 100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX) | VFINX: 34.98% | 34.98% | 16.02% | 34.98% |
16 | Jan 2013 | Jan 2013 | 1 | 100.00% Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX) | VGTSX: 3.34% | 3.34% | 4.26% | 5.18% |
15 | Jul 2012 | Dec 2012 | 6 | 100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX) | VFINX: 5.86% | 5.86% | 9.90% | 5.86% |
14 | Jun 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 100.00% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX) | VBMFX: 0.04% | 0.04% | 5.07% | 4.11% |
13 | Aug 2011 | May 2012 | 10 | 100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX) | VFINX: 3.25% | 3.25% | -7.98% | 3.25% |
12 | May 2011 | Jul 2011 | 3 | 100.00% Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX) | VGTSX: -5.80% | -5.80% | -5.29% | -4.79% |
11 | Jun 2010 | Apr 2011 | 11 | 100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX) | VFINX: 27.23% | 27.23% | 31.29% | 27.23% |
10 | Nov 2009 | May 2010 | 7 | 100.00% Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX) | VGTSX: -6.11% | -6.11% | -0.02% | 6.37% |
9 | Feb 2008 | Oct 2009 | 21 | 100.00% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX) | VBMFX: 9.81% | 9.81% | -20.88% | -21.55% |
8 | Oct 2003 | Jan 2008 | 52 | 100.00% Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX) | VGTSX: 119.08% | 119.08% | 81.16% | 49.00% |
7 | Aug 2003 | Sep 2003 | 2 | 100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX) | VFINX: 0.84% | 0.84% | 3.09% | 0.84% |
6 | Dec 2000 | Jul 2003 | 32 | 100.00% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX) | VBMFX: 19.99% | 19.99% | -20.73% | -21.75% |
5 | Sep 2000 | Nov 2000 | 3 | 100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX) | VFINX: -13.13% | -13.13% | -12.54% | -13.13% |
4 | Dec 1999 | Aug 2000 | 9 | 100.00% Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX) | VGTSX: 1.10% | 1.10% | 5.79% | 10.38% |
3 | Nov 1999 | Nov 1999 | 1 | 100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX) | VFINX: 2.02% | 2.02% | 3.05% | 2.02% |
2 | Oct 1999 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 100.00% Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX) | VGTSX: 3.74% | 3.74% | 5.03% | 6.33% |
1 | Jan 1998 | Sep 1999 | 21 | 100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX) | VFINX: 35.45% | 35.45% | 31.56% | 35.45% |