Test Market Timing Models

This tool allows you to test different market timing and tactical asset allocation models based on moving averages, momentum, market valuation and target volatility. The supported models include:

You can find a summary of the selected tactical asset allocation model below, and a more detailed description in the FAQ section.

Shiller PE Ratio Market Valuation

Shiller PE Ratio (PE10) market valuation based timing model adjusts the allocation between stocks and bonds as follows:
  • PE10 >= 22 - 40% stocks, 60% bonds
  • 14 <= PE10 < 22 - 60% stocks, 40% bonds
  • PE10 < 14 - 80% stocks, 20% bonds
The balanced 60% stock and 40% bond allocation is used as the benchmark portfolio.

Moving Averages - Single Asset

The moving average timing model is either invested in a a specific stock, ETF or mutual fund, or is alternatively in cash or other risk-free asset based on the moving average signal. The model is invested in the asset when the adjusted close price is greater than the moving average and the model moves to cash when the adjusted close price is less than the moving average. The model also supports using moving average cross-over as the signal.

Moving Averages - Portfolio Assets

The moving average model applies the moving average signal to each portfolio asset. The model is invested in a portfolio asset when the adjusted close price is greater than the moving average and the allocation is moved to cash when the adjusted close price is less than the moving average. The model also supports using moving average cross-over as the signal.

Momentum - Relative Strength

The relative strength momentum model invests in the best performing assets in the model based on each asset's past return. The momentum can be based on a single timing period, or multiple weighted timing periods. Additionally the model supports using moving averages as a risk control to decide whether investments should be moved to cash.

Momentum - Dual Momentum

The dual momentum model uses relative momentum to select the best performing model assets and incorporates absolute momentum as a filter to invest in cash if the excess return of the selected asset over cash is negative.

Adaptive Allocation

The adaptive asset allocation model combines relative strength momentum model with different asset weighting. The relative strength model uses an equal weight allocation for the model selected assets, whereas the adaptive asset allocation uses either risk parity allocation or minimum variance allocation for the model assets to minimize the expected volatility.

Target Volatility

The target volatility model adjusts the market exposure of the portfolio based on the realized historic volatility and the given volatility target. The cash allocation in the portfolio is increased or decreased as required to meet the targeted volatility level in order to improve the risk adjusted performance.
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Timing Periods
Length
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Weight
Time Period #1
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Time Period #2
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Time Period #3
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Time Period #4
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Time Period #5
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Volatility Period
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Portfolio Assets
Allocation
Asset 1
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Asset 2
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Asset 3
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Asset 4
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Asset 5
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Asset 6
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Asset 7
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Asset 8
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Asset 9
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Asset 10
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Total
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Market Timing Results (Jan 1998 - Dec 2018) Save

Market timing results from 1998 to 2018 are based on dual momentum model holding the best performing asset. Absolute momentum based trend following filter is used to switch any selected assets that have a negative excess return over the risk free rate to Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX). The model uses a single performance window of 6 calendar month(s). Timing model trades are executed using the end of month close price each month based on the end of month signals. The time period was constrained by the available data for Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX) [Dec 1996 - Jan 2020].

Performance statistics for the timing portfolio and benchmark portfolios
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Timing Portfolio$10,000$223,60415.95%14.64%70.21%-12.75%-20.63% 0.961.700.43
Vanguard 500 Index Investor$10,000$37,5966.51%14.88%32.18%-37.02%-50.97% 0.370.520.99
   
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • The backtested performance results are created by retroactively applying the specified investment strategy or methodology to historical data. Backtested models are developed with the benefit of hindsight but might not have foresight of the future.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • The selected portfolio allocation for comparison assumes monthly rebalancing
  • An equal-weight allocation is used for the assets held by the momentum model
  • The results for the timing portfolio assume monthly rebalancing trades
  • The relative strength signal is based on total return including dividends
  • Additional trading costs and taxes for timing models are not reflected in the results
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over the risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdowns are calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • Refer to the FAQ section regarding the data sources and methodology descriptions
Annual returns for the timing portfolio and various benchmark portfolios
YearInflationReturnBalanceVanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)
Timing PortfolioVanguard 500 Index InvestorTiming PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
19981.61%-0.02%28.62%$9,998$12,86228.62%25.98%13.05%
19992.68%70.21%21.07%$17,017$15,57121.07%90.29%-8.66%
20003.39%15.67%-9.06%$19,685$14,161-9.06%-2.68%19.72%
20011.55%4.31%-12.02%$20,532$12,459-12.02%-22.52%4.31%
20022.38%-3.22%-22.15%$19,871$9,700-22.15%-13.88%16.67%
20031.88%66.06%28.50%$32,997$12,46428.50%57.37%2.68%
20043.26%27.94%10.74%$42,217$13,80310.74%31.77%7.12%
20053.42%20.49%4.77%$50,870$14,4624.77%20.49%6.61%
20062.54%23.45%15.64%$62,799$16,72415.64%30.34%1.74%
20074.08%4.41%5.39%$65,565$17,6255.39%5.15%9.24%
20080.09%22.52%-37.02%$80,328$11,100-37.02%-46.62%22.52%
20092.72%28.46%26.49%$103,187$14,04026.49%47.12%-12.05%
20101.50%7.77%14.91%$111,206$16,13414.91%22.55%8.93%
20112.96%4.50%1.97%$116,208$16,4511.97%-19.74%29.28%
20121.74%13.95%15.82%$132,418$19,05415.82%17.93%3.47%
20131.50%22.85%32.18%$162,671$25,18532.18%30.24%-13.03%
20140.76%15.33%13.51%$187,613$28,58713.51%-2.88%25.28%
20150.73%-1.03%1.25%$185,685$28,9441.25%8.60%-1.54%
20162.07%7.93%11.82%$200,408$32,36511.82%-1.77%1.20%
20172.11%27.88%21.67%$256,275$39,37721.67%38.77%8.58%
20181.91%-12.75%-4.52%$223,604$37,596-4.52%-23.02%-1.90%
Monthly returns for the timing portfolio and various benchmark portfolios
YearMonthReturnBalanceVanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)
Timing PortfolioVanguard 500 Index InvestorTiming PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
199811.11%1.11%$10,111$10,1111.11%7.75%1.91%
199827.19%7.19%$10,838$10,8387.19%5.57%-0.75%
199835.10%5.10%$11,391$11,3915.10%5.71%0.14%
199841.01%1.01%$11,506$11,5061.01%5.09%0.40%
19985-1.74%-1.74%$11,306$11,306-1.74%5.04%1.83%
19986-0.38%4.07%$11,263$11,7664.07%-0.38%2.35%
199872.36%-1.05%$11,529$11,642-1.05%2.36%-0.51%
19988-12.74%-14.47%$10,060$9,957-14.47%-12.74%4.83%
19989-5.29%6.41%$9,528$10,5956.41%-5.29%3.29%
199810-1.69%8.16%$9,366$11,4608.16%4.47%-1.69%
1998110.88%6.07%$9,449$12,1566.07%3.42%0.88%
1998125.81%5.81%$9,998$12,8625.81%4.22%-0.16%
199914.20%4.20%$10,418$13,4024.20%1.82%0.98%
19992-3.12%-3.12%$10,092$12,984-3.12%5.06%-4.76%
199934.00%4.00%$10,496$13,5024.00%5.22%-0.34%
199943.85%3.85%$10,900$14,0233.85%8.29%0.19%
19995-0.88%-2.39%$10,804$13,688-2.39%-0.88%-1.68%
1999612.43%5.56%$12,147$14,4485.56%12.43%-1.05%
199979.00%-3.13%$13,241$13,996-3.13%9.00%-0.58%
199983.19%-0.50%$13,664$13,926-0.50%3.19%-0.49%
19999-1.40%-2.74%$13,472$13,545-2.74%-1.40%0.91%
1999101.85%6.33%$13,721$14,4026.33%1.85%0.12%
19991111.96%2.02%$15,362$14,6932.02%11.96%-0.59%
19991210.78%5.98%$17,017$15,5715.98%10.78%-1.60%
2000111.64%-5.03%$18,998$14,788-5.03%11.64%1.25%
2000217.38%-1.91%$22,300$14,506-1.91%17.38%2.96%
20003-3.93%9.76%$21,423$15,9229.76%-3.93%3.14%
20004-11.47%-3.01%$18,966$15,443-3.01%-11.47%-0.66%
20005-6.68%-2.04%$17,699$15,128-2.04%-6.68%-0.46%
200065.99%2.49%$18,760$15,5052.49%5.99%2.30%
20007-2.65%-1.49%$18,262$15,274-1.49%-2.65%1.49%
200086.19%6.19%$19,393$16,2196.19%3.50%2.08%
20009-5.29%-5.29%$18,367$15,361-5.29%-2.69%-0.85%
2000101.57%-0.43%$18,655$15,295-0.43%-8.77%1.57%
2000112.99%-7.88%$19,213$14,090-7.88%-4.32%2.99%
2000122.45%0.50%$19,685$14,1610.50%3.16%2.45%
200110.28%3.55%$19,740$14,6633.55%1.67%0.28%
200121.80%-9.14%$20,096$13,323-9.14%-4.78%1.80%
20013-0.60%-6.36%$19,975$12,477-6.36%-8.31%-0.60%
20014-2.56%7.77%$19,462$13,4467.77%5.83%-2.56%
200150.21%0.65%$19,502$13,5330.65%-2.21%0.21%
200160.76%-2.45%$19,651$13,202-2.45%-4.34%0.76%
200173.61%-1.00%$20,360$13,070-1.00%-4.62%3.61%
200182.02%-6.27%$20,773$12,250-6.27%-1.90%2.02%
200190.88%-8.09%$20,956$11,259-8.09%-14.83%0.88%
2001105.12%1.90%$22,029$11,4731.90%3.19%5.12%
200111-5.07%7.65%$20,913$12,3517.65%5.95%-5.07%
200112-1.82%0.87%$20,532$12,4590.87%1.19%-1.82%
200211.20%-1.47%$20,779$12,275-1.47%-1.57%1.20%
200221.24%-1.94%$21,037$12,037-1.94%-0.85%1.24%
20023-3.86%3.74%$20,226$12,4883.74%6.63%-3.86%
200242.91%-6.07%$20,814$11,729-6.07%2.91%3.73%
200251.27%-0.75%$21,078$11,641-0.75%1.27%0.39%
20026-4.52%-7.13%$20,124$10,810-7.13%-4.52%1.76%
20027-9.07%-7.72%$18,299$9,976-7.72%-9.07%2.93%
200284.28%0.65%$19,082$10,0410.65%-1.44%4.28%
200294.02%-10.87%$19,848$8,949-10.87%-10.69%4.02%
200210-2.84%8.78%$19,285$9,7358.78%2.14%-2.84%
200211-0.98%5.88%$19,097$10,3075.88%4.32%-0.98%
2002124.05%-5.89%$19,871$9,700-5.89%-2.47%4.05%
20031-0.45%-2.62%$19,782$9,445-2.62%-2.08%-0.45%
200323.03%-1.52%$20,381$9,302-1.52%-2.62%3.03%
20033-1.13%0.96%$20,150$9,3910.96%-1.41%-1.13%
200348.25%8.25%$21,813$10,1668.25%10.65%0.91%
2003511.15%5.26%$24,245$10,7015.26%11.15%5.67%
200363.80%1.26%$25,167$10,8361.26%3.80%-1.48%
200374.78%1.74%$26,370$11,0251.74%4.78%-8.57%
200384.08%1.93%$27,445$11,2381.93%4.08%1.43%
200395.41%-1.07%$28,930$11,117-1.07%5.41%5.07%
2003105.22%5.64%$30,440$11,7445.64%5.22%-2.58%
2003112.19%0.86%$31,106$11,8460.86%2.19%0.31%
2003126.08%5.22%$32,997$12,4645.22%6.08%1.23%
200414.21%1.82%$34,387$12,6911.82%4.21%1.74%
200423.52%1.38%$35,597$12,8661.38%3.52%1.96%
200432.31%-1.51%$36,420$12,671-1.51%2.31%1.45%
20044-1.98%-1.58%$35,700$12,472-1.58%-1.98%-5.52%
20045-1.15%1.36%$35,288$12,6411.36%-1.15%-0.56%
200463.21%1.93%$36,420$12,8851.93%3.21%0.87%
20047-2.76%-3.31%$35,416$12,458-3.31%-2.76%1.52%
200480.87%0.38%$35,725$12,5060.38%0.87%3.39%
200490.94%1.07%$36,060$12,6391.07%2.38%0.94%
2004101.46%1.51%$36,586$12,8311.51%3.03%1.46%
2004117.72%4.05%$39,410$13,3504.05%7.72%-2.25%
2004127.12%3.39%$42,217$13,8033.39%7.12%2.22%
200510.92%-2.45%$42,605$13,464-2.45%0.92%2.59%
200524.31%2.09%$44,439$13,7462.09%4.31%-1.24%
20053-2.21%-1.76%$43,458$13,504-1.76%-2.21%-0.76%
20054-2.02%-1.91%$42,579$13,246-1.91%-2.02%3.22%
200550.36%3.17%$42,734$13,6663.17%0.36%2.55%
200562.72%0.13%$43,897$13,6830.13%2.72%1.64%
200574.53%3.71%$45,886$14,1903.71%4.53%-2.58%
200582.03%-0.91%$46,816$14,060-0.91%2.03%2.87%
200593.53%0.79%$48,470$14,1720.79%3.53%-2.78%
200510-4.10%-1.68%$46,481$13,934-1.68%-4.10%-1.74%
2005112.67%3.76%$47,721$14,4593.76%2.67%0.57%
2005126.60%0.02%$50,870$14,4620.02%6.60%2.33%
200617.37%2.65%$54,617$14,8452.65%7.37%-0.90%
200620.62%0.26%$54,957$14,8840.26%0.62%0.81%
200635.27%1.23%$57,853$15,0671.23%5.27%-3.39%
200645.50%1.33%$61,032$15,2681.33%5.50%-1.96%
20065-4.93%-2.90%$58,023$14,825-2.90%-4.93%-0.03%
20066-2.15%0.13%$56,774$14,8440.13%-2.15%0.71%
20067-0.50%0.61%$56,490$14,9340.61%-0.50%1.84%
200682.36%2.36%$57,824$15,2872.36%2.36%2.74%
200691.82%2.56%$58,875$15,6792.56%1.82%1.58%
2006103.25%3.25%$60,789$16,1893.25%3.66%0.77%
2006111.89%1.89%$61,937$16,4951.89%4.51%1.91%
2006121.39%1.39%$62,799$16,7241.39%3.95%-2.14%
200712.94%1.49%$64,644$16,9741.49%2.94%-0.85%
200720.32%-1.97%$64,852$16,640-1.97%0.32%2.93%
200733.21%1.11%$66,936$16,8251.11%3.21%-1.13%
200743.87%4.42%$69,525$17,5684.42%3.87%0.86%
200752.44%3.48%$71,222$18,1793.48%2.44%-1.93%
20076-1.13%-1.68%$70,418$17,874-1.68%-1.13%-0.88%
20077-0.46%-3.08%$70,091$17,323-3.08%-0.46%2.39%
20078-2.97%1.50%$68,007$17,5821.50%-2.97%1.97%
200793.72%3.72%$70,540$18,2373.72%2.01%0.21%
2007101.58%1.58%$71,654$18,5251.58%5.96%1.40%
200711-8.06%-4.19%$65,881$17,749-4.19%-8.06%4.59%
200712-0.48%-0.70%$65,565$17,625-0.70%-2.30%-0.48%
200812.64%-6.02%$67,297$16,565-6.02%-9.13%2.64%
200820.35%-3.25%$67,533$16,026-3.25%2.26%0.35%
200831.02%-0.44%$68,223$15,956-0.44%-1.34%1.02%
20084-1.84%4.85%$66,968$16,7304.85%2.24%-1.84%
20085-2.13%1.29%$65,543$16,9461.29%2.07%-2.13%
200861.80%-8.44%$66,722$15,516-8.44%-7.91%1.80%
200870.30%-0.83%$66,919$15,387-0.83%-5.82%0.30%
200881.80%1.45%$68,127$15,6101.45%-3.39%1.80%
200890.28%-8.91%$68,320$14,220-8.91%-15.43%0.28%
200810-3.63%-16.79%$65,841$11,832-16.79%-24.14%-3.63%
20081112.07%-7.17%$73,786$10,983-7.17%-4.94%12.07%
2008128.87%1.07%$80,328$11,1001.07%9.18%8.87%
20091-8.47%-8.41%$73,524$10,166-8.41%-9.15%-8.47%
20092-1.01%-10.66%$72,782$9,083-10.66%-7.18%-1.01%
200935.27%8.76%$76,615$9,8798.76%7.98%5.27%
20094-4.99%9.56%$72,793$10,8239.56%13.97%-4.99%
2009513.98%5.62%$82,970$11,4315.62%13.98%-2.68%
200961.96%0.22%$84,593$11,4560.22%1.96%0.70%
200977.41%7.58%$90,862$12,3247.58%7.41%0.80%
200985.19%3.60%$95,582$12,7683.60%5.19%1.68%
200996.33%3.72%$101,629$13,2423.72%6.33%1.98%
200910-1.67%-1.87%$99,933$12,995-1.87%-1.67%-1.45%
2009111.70%5.98%$101,629$13,7725.98%1.70%1.91%
2009121.53%1.95%$103,187$14,0401.95%1.53%-5.66%
20101-3.60%-3.60%$99,469$13,534-3.60%-1.96%2.66%
20102-0.89%3.09%$98,586$13,9523.09%-0.89%-0.21%
201036.01%6.01%$104,514$14,7916.01%7.16%-1.51%
201041.58%1.58%$106,164$15,0251.58%1.04%2.76%
20105-8.01%-8.01%$97,665$13,822-8.01%-11.51%4.23%
20106-5.24%-5.24%$92,548$13,098-5.24%-0.16%4.67%
20107-0.17%7.00%$92,390$14,0147.00%9.52%-0.17%
20108-2.64%-4.53%$89,955$13,379-4.53%-2.64%7.08%
2010911.56%8.92%$100,352$14,5738.92%11.56%-1.82%
2010103.67%3.79%$104,037$15,1253.79%3.67%-3.29%
201011-3.16%0.00%$100,747$15,1250.00%-3.16%-1.60%
20101210.38%6.67%$111,206$16,1346.67%10.38%-3.58%
201110.72%2.36%$112,006$16,5142.36%0.72%-2.38%
201121.25%3.42%$113,407$17,0783.42%1.25%1.24%
201130.03%0.03%$113,436$17,0830.03%0.47%0.02%
201142.95%2.95%$116,780$17,5862.95%4.92%2.04%
20115-1.15%-1.15%$115,443$17,385-1.15%-2.46%3.29%
20116-2.80%-1.67%$112,207$17,094-1.67%-2.80%-2.00%
20117-2.05%-2.05%$109,910$16,744-2.05%-1.59%4.18%
20118-5.45%-5.45%$103,924$15,832-5.45%-9.69%8.68%
2011910.16%-7.04%$114,485$14,717-7.04%-11.79%10.16%
201110-3.34%10.91%$110,667$16,32310.91%8.18%-3.34%
2011111.82%-0.23%$112,677$16,285-0.23%-3.96%1.82%
2011123.13%1.02%$116,208$16,4511.02%-3.32%3.13%
201210.08%4.46%$116,299$17,1864.46%8.81%0.08%
201224.31%4.31%$121,308$17,9264.31%5.59%-2.11%
201233.28%3.28%$125,289$18,5143.28%0.41%-3.77%
20124-0.64%-0.64%$124,487$18,396-0.64%-0.68%4.37%
20125-6.02%-6.02%$116,996$17,288-6.02%-11.78%7.79%
201264.11%4.11%$121,803$17,9994.11%3.86%-1.44%
201271.37%1.37%$123,472$18,2451.37%-0.22%3.32%
201282.24%2.24%$126,237$18,6542.24%2.90%-1.06%
201292.58%2.58%$129,489$19,1352.58%3.69%-2.10%
201210-1.86%-1.86%$127,081$18,779-1.86%1.19%-0.43%
2012110.56%0.56%$127,793$18,8840.56%0.62%1.35%
2012123.62%0.90%$132,418$19,0540.90%3.62%-1.99%
201314.96%5.18%$138,990$20,0415.18%4.96%-3.27%
201320.19%1.34%$139,260$20,3091.34%0.19%1.26%
201331.29%3.74%$141,060$21,0683.74%1.29%0.03%
201343.70%1.91%$146,281$21,4701.91%3.70%3.87%
20135-0.49%2.33%$145,561$21,9702.33%-0.49%-6.23%
20136-1.35%-1.35%$143,595$21,673-1.35%-2.16%-3.26%
201375.07%5.07%$150,879$22,7735.07%5.50%-1.93%
20138-2.91%-2.91%$146,485$22,110-2.91%-0.66%-1.28%
201393.12%3.12%$151,058$22,8003.12%7.30%0.88%
2013103.99%4.59%$157,087$23,8464.59%3.99%1.32%
2013110.81%3.03%$158,360$24,5683.03%0.81%-2.49%
2013122.72%2.51%$162,671$25,1852.51%2.72%-2.37%
20141-2.23%-3.47%$159,050$24,312-3.47%-2.23%6.26%
201425.94%4.56%$168,499$25,4204.56%5.94%0.60%
201430.73%0.82%$169,736$25,6300.82%0.73%0.63%
201440.72%0.72%$170,965$25,8150.72%-0.62%1.82%
201452.33%2.33%$174,957$26,4182.33%1.94%2.73%
201461.13%2.05%$176,934$26,9602.05%1.13%-0.16%
20147-1.39%-1.39%$174,478$26,586-1.39%-2.08%0.59%
201483.98%3.98%$181,425$27,6443.98%0.62%4.23%
20149-1.41%-1.41%$178,862$27,254-1.41%-4.43%-1.99%
2014102.42%2.42%$183,196$27,9142.42%-1.51%2.61%
2014112.68%2.68%$188,110$28,6632.68%-1.42%2.86%
201412-0.26%-0.26%$187,613$28,587-0.26%-0.61%2.82%
20151-3.02%-3.02%$181,952$27,725-3.02%-0.12%8.97%
201525.74%5.74%$192,395$29,3165.74%6.81%-5.66%
20153-1.59%-1.59%$189,329$28,849-1.59%0.57%1.13%
201540.95%0.95%$191,126$29,1230.95%3.45%-3.07%
201550.88%1.27%$192,798$29,4931.27%0.88%-2.16%
20156-1.14%-1.93%$190,603$28,923-1.93%-1.14%-3.73%
201571.15%2.08%$192,798$29,5252.08%1.15%4.21%
20158-4.99%-6.04%$183,179$27,741-6.04%-4.99%-0.71%
201591.91%-2.49%$186,680$27,050-2.49%-3.08%1.91%
201510-0.48%8.42%$185,786$29,3298.42%4.59%-0.48%
2015110.29%0.29%$186,318$29,4130.29%0.11%-0.81%
201512-0.34%-1.59%$185,685$28,944-1.59%0.60%-0.34%
20161-4.98%-4.98%$176,444$27,504-4.98%-6.67%5.24%
201622.86%-0.15%$181,489$27,464-0.15%-2.40%2.86%
201630.05%6.78%$181,584$29,3256.78%7.58%0.05%
201640.37%0.37%$182,263$29,4340.37%0.66%-0.63%
201651.78%1.78%$185,512$29,9591.78%1.44%0.69%
201660.25%0.25%$185,976$30,0340.25%-5.54%6.57%
201673.68%3.68%$192,813$31,1383.68%5.62%2.01%
201680.13%0.13%$193,063$31,1780.13%-0.18%-1.00%
201690.01%0.01%$193,078$31,1810.01%2.84%-1.32%
201610-1.83%-1.83%$189,539$30,609-1.83%-3.17%-4.23%
2016113.70%3.70%$196,550$31,7423.70%-2.50%-7.86%
2016121.96%1.96%$200,408$32,3651.96%1.53%-0.35%
201711.88%1.88%$204,182$32,9741.88%4.41%0.65%
201723.96%3.96%$212,273$34,2813.96%1.82%1.57%
201730.10%0.10%$212,485$34,3150.10%3.74%-0.59%
201741.02%1.02%$214,649$34,6641.02%5.39%1.58%
201754.27%1.39%$223,809$35,1481.39%4.27%1.73%
201760.51%0.61%$224,940$35,3620.61%0.51%0.63%
201773.47%2.04%$232,743$36,0852.04%3.47%-0.59%
201780.39%0.29%$233,648$36,1910.29%0.39%3.27%
201793.97%2.06%$242,922$36,9362.06%3.97%-2.27%
2017101.82%2.32%$247,332$37,7922.32%1.82%-0.02%
2017110.46%3.06%$248,463$38,9483.06%0.46%0.63%
2017123.14%1.10%$256,275$39,3771.10%3.14%1.78%
201815.12%5.71%$269,395$41,6275.71%5.12%-3.40%
20182-4.02%-3.69%$258,562$40,089-3.69%-4.02%-2.89%
20183-2.56%-2.56%$251,954$39,064-2.56%-0.33%2.75%
201840.28%0.37%$252,660$39,2100.37%0.28%-2.04%
20185-0.84%2.39%$250,542$40,1492.39%-0.84%1.79%
20186-2.16%0.61%$245,129$40,3920.61%-2.16%0.66%
201873.71%3.71%$254,222$41,8903.71%0.10%-1.28%
201881.18%3.25%$257,233$43,2503.25%-1.77%1.18%
201890.55%0.55%$258,659$43,4900.55%-1.17%-2.74%
201810-6.85%-6.85%$240,944$40,511-6.85%-11.76%-2.82%
2018112.03%2.03%$245,827$41,3322.03%-0.39%1.78%
201812-9.04%-9.04%$223,604$37,596-9.04%-7.88%5.50%
Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricTiming PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)1.33%0.62%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)17.16%7.70%
Geometric Mean (monthly)1.24%0.53%
Geometric Mean (annualized)15.95%6.51%
Volatility (monthly)4.23%4.30%
Volatility (annualized)14.64%14.88%
Downside Deviation (monthly)2.29%2.98%
Max. Drawdown-20.63%-50.97%
US Market Correlation0.430.99
Beta(*)0.381.00
Alpha (annualized)13.08%0.00%
R215.26%100.00%
Sharpe Ratio0.960.37
Sortino Ratio1.700.52
Treynor Ratio (%)36.465.52
Calmar Ratio0.380.67
Active Return9.44%N/A
Tracking Error16.30%N/A
Information Ratio0.58N/A
Skewness0.19-0.67
Excess Kurtosis1.611.25
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-5.29%-7.77%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-5.63%-6.45%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-8.09%-10.06%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)79.45100.00
Downside Capture Ratio (%)24.66100.00
Safe Withdrawal Rate17.76%6.34%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate11.92%4.11%
Positive Periods171 out of 252 (67.86%)161 out of 252 (63.89%)
Gain/Loss Ratio1.110.81
* Vanguard 500 Index Investor is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEndTiming PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
Russian Debt DefaultJul 1998Oct 1998-18.76%-15.38%
Dotcom CrashMar 2000Oct 2002-20.63%-44.82%
Subprime CrisisNov 2007Mar 2009-9.39%-50.97%

Drawdowns for Timing Portfolio

Drawdowns for Timing Portfolio (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Mar 2000May 20003 monthsMay 20033 years3 years 3 months-20.63%
2Aug 1998Oct 19983 monthsJun 19998 months11 months-18.76%
3Feb 2018Dec 201811 months-17.00%
4May 2010Aug 20104 monthsDec 20104 months8 months-15.27%
5May 2011Aug 20114 monthsFeb 20126 months10 months-11.01%
6Jan 2009Feb 20092 monthsMay 20093 months5 months-9.39%
7Nov 2007May 20087 monthsNov 20086 months1 year 1 month-8.53%
8Aug 2015Jan 20166 monthsJul 20166 months1 year-8.48%
9May 2006Jul 20063 monthsNov 20064 months7 months-7.44%
10Apr 2012May 20122 monthsAug 20123 months5 months-6.62%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Vanguard 500 Index Investor

Drawdowns for Vanguard 500 Index Investor (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsAug 20123 years 6 months4 years 10 months-50.97%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 monthNov 20064 years 2 months6 years 3 months-44.82%
3Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-15.38%
4Oct 2018Dec 20183 months-13.55%
5Aug 2015Sep 20152 monthsMay 20168 months10 months-8.38%
6Jan 2000Feb 20002 monthsMar 20001 month3 months-6.84%
7Jul 1999Sep 19993 monthsNov 19992 months5 months-6.25%
8Feb 2018Mar 20182 monthsJul 20184 months6 months-6.16%
9Apr 2000May 20002 monthsAug 20003 months5 months-4.98%
10Jun 2007Jul 20072 monthsSep 20072 months4 months-4.71%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above
Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodTiming PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
AverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year17.46%70.21%-12.75%8.07%32.18%-37.02%
3 years17.00%36.80%5.30%6.16%20.22%-14.60%
5 years17.03%26.97%6.57%5.94%17.81%-2.38%
7 years17.43%26.53%9.80%6.09%14.67%-1.64%
10 years17.27%23.17%10.78%5.39%12.97%-1.46%
15 years17.33%20.44%13.61%6.00%9.79%4.13%
Result statistics are based on annualized rolling returns over full calendar year periods
Timing periods and related holdings for the timing portfolio
#StartEndMonthsAssetsAsset PerformanceTiming PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
1Jan 1998May 19985100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 13.06%13.06%13.06%
2Jun 1998Sep 19984100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -15.73%-15.73%-6.28%
3Oct 1998Nov 19982100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -0.82%-0.82%14.73%
4Dec 1998Apr 19995100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 15.36%15.36%15.36%
5May 1999Jul 200015100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 67.54%67.54%8.92%
6Aug 2000Sep 20002100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 0.57%0.57%0.57%
7Oct 2000Mar 200218100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 10.12%10.12%-18.70%
8Apr 2002Jul 20024100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -9.53%-9.53%-20.12%
9Aug 2002Mar 20038100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 10.12%10.12%-5.87%
10Apr 2003Apr 20031100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 8.25%8.25%8.25%
11May 2003Aug 200416100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 63.78%63.78%23.02%
12Sep 2004Oct 20042100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.41%2.41%2.60%
13Nov 2004Sep 200623100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 60.92%60.92%22.20%
14Oct 2006Dec 20063100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 6.67%6.67%6.67%
15Jan 2007Aug 20078100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 8.29%8.29%5.13%
16Sep 2007Oct 20072100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 5.36%5.36%5.36%
17Nov 2007Nov 20071100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -8.06%-8.06%-4.19%
18Dec 2007Apr 200917100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 10.49%10.49%-39.02%
19May 2009Dec 20098100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 41.76%41.76%29.73%
20Jan 2010Jan 20101100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -3.60%-3.60%-3.60%
21Feb 2010Feb 20101100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -0.89%-0.89%3.09%
22Mar 2010Jun 20104100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -6.12%-6.12%-6.12%
23Jul 2010Jul 20101100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -0.17%-0.17%7.00%
24Aug 2010Feb 20117100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 22.75%22.75%21.86%
25Mar 2011May 20113100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 1.79%1.79%1.79%
26Jun 2011Jun 20111100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -2.80%-2.80%-1.67%
27Jul 2011Aug 20112100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -7.38%-7.38%-7.38%
28Sep 2011Jan 20125100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 11.91%11.91%8.55%
29Feb 2012Nov 201210100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 9.88%9.88%9.88%
30Dec 2012May 20136100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 13.90%13.90%16.34%
31Jun 2013Sep 20134100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 3.78%3.78%3.78%
32Oct 2013Mar 20146100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 12.36%12.36%12.41%
33Apr 2014May 20142100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 3.08%3.08%3.08%
34Jun 2014Jun 20141100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 1.13%1.13%2.05%
35Jul 2014Apr 201510100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 8.02%8.02%8.02%
36May 2015Aug 20154100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -4.16%-4.16%-4.74%
37Sep 2015Oct 20152100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.42%1.42%5.72%
38Nov 2015Nov 20151100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 0.29%0.29%0.29%
39Dec 2015Dec 20151100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -0.34%-0.34%-1.59%
40Jan 2016Jan 20161100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -4.98%-4.98%-4.98%
41Feb 2016Mar 20162100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.91%2.91%6.62%
42Apr 2016Apr 201713100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 18.21%18.21%18.21%
43May 2017Feb 201810100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 20.46%20.46%15.65%
44Mar 2018Mar 20181100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -2.56%-2.56%-2.56%
45Apr 2018Jun 20183100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -2.71%-2.71%3.40%
46Jul 2018Jul 20181100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 3.71%3.71%3.71%
47Aug 2018Aug 20181100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.18%1.18%3.25%
48Sep 2018Dec 20184100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -13.07%-13.07%-13.07%
49Jan 2019Jan 20191Please sign-in for forward signals---