Test Market Timing Models

This tool allows you to test different market timing and tactical asset allocation models based on moving averages, momentum, market valuation and target volatility. The supported models include:

You can find a summary of the selected tactical asset allocation model below, and a more detailed description in the FAQ section.

Shiller PE Ratio Market Valuation

Shiller PE Ratio (PE10) market valuation based timing model adjusts the allocation between stocks and bonds as follows:
  • PE10 >= 22 - 40% stocks, 60% bonds
  • 14 <= PE10 < 22 - 60% stocks, 40% bonds
  • PE10 < 14 - 80% stocks, 20% bonds
The balanced 60% stock and 40% bond allocation is used as the benchmark portfolio.

Moving Averages - Single Asset

The moving average timing model is either invested in a a specific stock, ETF or mutual fund, or is alternatively in cash or other risk-free asset based on the moving average signal. The model is invested in the asset when the adjusted close price is greater than the moving average and the model moves to cash when the adjusted close price is less than the moving average. The model also supports using moving average cross-over as the signal.

Moving Averages - Portfolio Assets

The moving average model applies the moving average signal to each portfolio asset. The model is invested in a portfolio asset when the adjusted close price is greater than the moving average and the allocation is moved to cash when the adjusted close price is less than the moving average. The model also supports using moving average cross-over as the signal.

Momentum - Relative Strength

The relative strength momentum model invests in the best performing assets in the model based on each asset's past return. The momentum can be based on a single timing period, or multiple weighted timing periods. Additionally the model supports using moving averages as a risk control to decide whether investments should be moved to cash.

Momentum - Dual Momentum

The dual momentum model uses relative momentum to select the best performing model assets and incorporates absolute momentum as a filter to invest in cash if the excess return of the selected asset over cash is negative.

Adaptive Allocation

The adaptive asset allocation model combines relative strength momentum model with different asset weighting. The relative strength model uses an equal weight allocation for the model selected assets, whereas the adaptive asset allocation uses either risk parity allocation or minimum variance allocation for the model assets to minimize the expected volatility.

Target Volatility

The target volatility model adjusts the market exposure of the portfolio based on the realized historic volatility and the given volatility target. The cash allocation in the portfolio is increased or decreased as required to meet the targeted volatility level in order to improve the risk adjusted performance.
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Timing Periods
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Weight
Time Period #1
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Time Period #2
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Time Period #3
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Time Period #4
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Time Period #5
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Volatility Period
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Portfolio Assets
Allocation
Asset 1
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Asset 2
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Asset 3
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Asset 4
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Asset 5
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Asset 6
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Asset 7
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Asset 8
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Asset 9
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Asset 10
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Total
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Market Timing Results (Jan 1987 - Dec 2018) Save

Market timing results from 1987 to 2018 are based on dual momentum model holding the best performing asset. Absolute momentum based trend following filter is used to switch any selected assets that have a negative excess return over the risk free rate to Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX). The model uses multiple weighted performance windows to rank the assets by weighted average of asset performance. Timing model trades are executed using the end of month close price each month based on the end of month signals. The time period was constrained by the available data for Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX) [Jun 1986 - Jan 2020].

Performance statistics for the timing portfolio and benchmark portfolios
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Timing Portfolio$10,000$828,08314.80%14.94%45.74%-18.34%-31.15% 0.791.240.56
Vanguard 500 Index Investor$10,000$203,2759.87%14.79%37.45%-37.02%-50.97% 0.500.710.99
   
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • The backtested performance results are created by retroactively applying the specified investment strategy or methodology to historical data. Backtested models are developed with the benefit of hindsight but might not have foresight of the future.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • The selected portfolio allocation for comparison assumes monthly rebalancing
  • An equal-weight allocation is used for the assets held by the momentum model
  • The results for the timing portfolio assume monthly rebalancing trades
  • The relative strength signal is based on total return including dividends
  • Additional trading costs and taxes for timing models are not reflected in the results
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over the risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdowns are calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • Refer to the FAQ section regarding the data sources and methodology descriptions
Annual returns for the timing portfolio and various benchmark portfolios
YearInflationReturnBalanceVanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)
Timing PortfolioVanguard 500 Index InvestorTiming PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
19874.43%-18.34%4.71%$8,166$10,471-6.90%-6.07%-2.92%
19884.42%22.88%16.22%$10,034$12,16925.85%8.76%9.15%
19894.65%31.51%31.36%$13,196$15,9869.37%37.70%17.93%
19906.11%6.61%-3.32%$14,069$15,454-10.80%4.60%5.78%
19913.06%41.23%30.22%$19,870$20,12555.90%46.76%17.43%
19922.90%17.46%7.42%$23,339$21,61913.02%2.76%7.41%
19932.75%9.69%9.89%$25,601$23,75715.41%-1.45%16.79%
19942.67%-1.11%1.18%$25,317$24,0360.54%3.88%-7.04%
19952.54%37.69%37.45%$34,859$33,03726.60%38.44%30.09%
19963.32%15.44%22.88%$40,243$40,59514.04%26.05%-1.26%
19971.70%26.75%33.19%$51,009$54,06914.57%25.93%13.90%
19981.61%25.18%28.62%$63,855$69,5413.52%39.98%13.05%
19992.68%31.44%21.07%$83,930$84,19337.26%22.28%-8.66%
20003.39%7.96%-9.06%$90,613$76,5689.22%-20.17%19.72%
20011.55%-9.03%-12.02%$82,432$67,3620.56%-31.70%4.31%
20022.38%-9.79%-22.15%$74,363$52,445-24.58%-35.80%16.67%
20031.88%36.22%28.50%$101,297$67,39344.25%26.10%2.68%
20043.26%9.49%10.74%$110,911$74,63113.75%7.03%7.12%
20053.42%14.96%4.77%$127,505$78,1949.28%11.15%6.61%
20062.54%13.91%15.64%$145,236$90,4259.70%1.77%1.74%
20074.08%5.19%5.39%$152,773$95,2965.06%10.15%9.24%
20080.09%17.83%-37.02%$180,018$60,016-40.40%-37.82%22.52%
20092.72%31.23%26.49%$236,241$75,91236.21%34.95%-12.05%
20101.50%29.62%14.91%$306,205$87,23427.43%11.53%8.93%
20112.96%29.49%1.97%$396,510$88,949-1.89%-0.68%29.28%
20121.74%8.76%15.82%$431,231$103,02414.89%18.43%3.47%
20131.50%45.74%32.18%$628,497$136,17344.36%35.49%-13.03%
20140.76%9.35%13.51%$687,250$154,5683.91%13.06%25.28%
20150.73%-8.61%1.25%$628,091$156,498-4.34%8.47%-1.54%
20162.07%-5.88%11.82%$591,162$174,99112.33%-0.75%1.20%
20172.11%25.14%21.67%$739,805$212,90722.95%31.60%8.58%
20181.91%11.93%-4.52%$828,083$203,275-2.50%0.62%-1.90%
Monthly returns for the timing portfolio and various benchmark portfolios
YearMonthReturnBalanceVanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)
Timing PortfolioVanguard 500 Index InvestorTiming PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
198711.30%13.27%$10,130$11,32710.59%9.11%1.30%
198728.01%3.97%$10,941$11,7768.01%5.95%1.07%
19873-0.03%2.86%$10,938$12,113-0.03%2.68%-1.58%
19874-3.67%-0.99%$10,536$11,992-2.76%-3.67%-4.80%
19875-1.50%1.04%$10,378$12,1171.12%0.08%-1.50%
198761.44%5.02%$10,528$12,7251.60%3.13%1.44%
198773.45%4.91%$10,891$13,3511.39%3.45%-1.11%
198781.11%3.84%$11,012$13,8633.11%1.11%-1.56%
198791.01%-2.29%$11,124$13,5471.01%-2.12%-3.72%
198710-28.09%-21.73%$7,999$10,603-28.09%-21.60%5.84%
1987110.47%-8.19%$8,037$9,735-2.47%-8.69%0.47%
1987121.60%7.55%$8,166$10,4715.36%8.58%1.60%
198814.65%4.17%$8,545$10,9084.14%3.16%4.65%
198828.44%4.59%$9,267$11,4088.44%4.60%1.16%
198835.80%-3.04%$9,804$11,0615.80%-3.99%-2.24%
198842.02%1.01%$10,002$11,1732.02%-0.69%-1.14%
19885-1.18%0.81%$9,884$11,264-1.18%0.42%-1.59%
198863.19%4.56%$10,200$11,7773.19%5.70%4.09%
19887-2.50%-0.37%$9,945$11,7341.29%-2.50%-1.90%
19888-2.42%-3.40%$9,704$11,335-2.42%-3.24%0.40%
198893.86%4.26%$10,079$11,8171.93%6.00%3.86%
1988100.39%2.73%$10,119$12,1400.03%0.39%2.45%
198811-2.10%-1.47%$9,906$11,961-3.71%-2.10%-1.88%
1988121.29%1.74%$10,034$12,1694.33%1.33%1.29%
198913.02%7.32%$10,337$13,0603.02%7.06%2.05%
19892-1.87%-2.47%$10,144$12,737-1.67%-1.87%-1.71%
198933.04%2.26%$10,452$13,0252.91%3.04%0.86%
198945.66%5.18%$11,044$13,7014.27%5.66%2.59%
198955.24%4.04%$11,622$14,2532.48%5.24%3.11%
19896-1.88%-0.59%$11,404$14,170-1.55%-1.88%6.07%
1989710.82%9.01%$12,638$15,4462.82%10.82%2.06%
198981.83%1.86%$12,870$15,7331.31%1.83%-2.90%
198991.60%-0.40%$13,075$15,6700.19%1.60%0.15%
198910-0.98%-2.34%$12,947$15,303-3.48%-0.98%3.88%
1989110.83%2.04%$13,054$15,615-1.24%1.59%0.83%
1989121.09%2.38%$13,196$15,9860.27%1.09%-0.05%
19901-5.97%-6.72%$12,408$14,912-7.64%-5.97%-3.67%
19902-0.32%1.27%$12,368$15,1020.45%2.29%-0.32%
19903-0.26%2.61%$12,336$15,4953.67%4.58%-0.26%
19904-0.58%-2.50%$12,264$15,108-0.25%-0.58%-2.84%
1990510.87%9.69%$13,597$16,5727.93%10.87%4.49%
199062.30%-0.66%$13,910$16,4632.56%2.30%2.28%
19907-2.33%-0.35%$13,585$16,405-2.53%-2.33%0.70%
19908-8.22%-9.03%$12,468$14,923-14.66%-8.22%-4.25%
199091.15%-4.89%$12,612$14,194-8.53%-5.88%1.15%
1990102.15%-0.41%$12,883$14,135-3.66%-2.66%2.15%
1990114.60%6.44%$13,476$15,0467.60%7.57%4.60%
1990124.40%2.72%$14,069$15,4546.50%4.40%2.05%
199119.50%4.35%$15,405$16,1279.50%8.58%1.09%
199129.14%7.12%$16,813$17,2759.14%7.46%0.50%
199136.54%2.41%$17,913$17,6906.54%3.10%0.27%
199140.77%0.20%$18,051$17,7250.77%-1.11%1.28%
199154.17%4.27%$18,804$18,4824.17%4.97%-0.14%
19916-4.94%-4.56%$17,875$17,640-4.94%-4.96%-0.78%
199171.53%4.63%$18,148$18,4564.92%5.62%1.53%
199184.11%2.33%$18,893$18,8865.60%4.11%3.49%
19919-0.78%-1.67%$18,746$18,571-0.78%-1.68%2.95%
1991102.85%1.33%$19,282$18,8182.85%0.89%-0.08%
199111-3.02%-4.01%$18,699$18,063-3.02%-2.50%0.02%
1991126.26%11.41%$19,870$20,12511.89%16.27%6.26%
19921-2.30%-1.88%$19,413$19,7466.56%-2.30%-3.21%
199221.54%1.24%$19,712$19,9921.54%-1.35%0.64%
19923-5.58%-1.93%$18,612$19,607-5.58%-1.37%-1.10%
19924-0.07%2.91%$18,599$20,178-4.52%0.35%-0.07%
199252.70%0.48%$19,101$20,2761.01%0.62%2.70%
199261.12%-1.49%$19,314$19,973-4.15%-2.06%1.12%
199274.02%4.04%$20,090$20,7812.43%3.85%4.02%
19928-0.88%-2.07%$19,914$20,351-1.02%-0.88%0.71%
199291.50%1.17%$20,212$20,5892.21%1.50%1.36%
1992106.35%0.33%$21,495$20,6576.35%-0.07%-1.89%
1992117.15%3.40%$23,033$21,3607.15%4.76%0.50%
1992121.33%1.21%$23,339$21,6191.33%-0.07%2.63%
199311.62%0.81%$23,717$21,7931.62%-0.52%2.85%
19932-4.02%1.36%$22,764$22,088-4.02%-3.66%3.20%
199330.19%2.11%$22,808$22,5542.34%1.22%0.19%
199340.76%-2.42%$22,981$22,007-3.79%-4.43%0.76%
199350.38%2.65%$23,069$22,5914.58%1.76%0.38%
199360.66%0.27%$23,221$22,6510.66%0.48%4.17%
199370.95%-0.42%$23,441$22,5550.95%-1.03%1.39%
199384.63%3.79%$24,526$23,4094.63%2.08%3.99%
199393.63%-0.79%$25,416$23,2233.63%-0.41%0.33%
1993101.77%2.08%$25,867$23,7061.77%2.25%0.62%
199311-2.13%-1.00%$25,317$23,470-2.13%-0.07%-2.48%
1993121.12%1.22%$25,601$23,7574.71%1.12%0.42%
199412.39%3.38%$26,214$24,5592.39%3.08%2.23%
19942-0.95%-2.71%$25,964$23,893-0.95%-1.23%-3.99%
19943-4.46%-4.39%$24,806$22,844-4.46%-4.54%-3.82%
19944-1.29%1.29%$24,487$23,1390.69%1.52%-1.29%
19945-0.47%1.60%$24,372$23,510-0.39%1.97%-0.47%
19946-2.93%-2.45%$23,658$22,935-4.31%-2.93%-0.81%
199472.94%3.28%$24,353$23,6861.00%2.26%2.94%
199484.09%4.08%$25,349$24,6527.25%4.09%-0.67%
199490.90%-2.45%$25,578$24,0490.90%-1.74%-3.00%
1994100.33%2.25%$25,662$24,5890.33%2.49%-0.36%
199411-2.91%-3.65%$24,914$23,690-2.91%-2.11%0.62%
1994121.62%1.46%$25,317$24,0361.55%1.37%1.62%
199512.62%2.58%$25,980$24,657-0.30%2.80%2.62%
199523.81%3.88%$26,969$25,6143.28%3.81%2.73%
199532.38%2.95%$27,612$26,3702.45%2.38%0.72%
199543.70%2.94%$28,634$27,1460.80%3.70%1.65%
199553.51%3.95%$29,639$28,2191.18%3.51%7.52%
199562.95%2.31%$30,513$28,8724.58%2.95%1.13%
199572.11%3.30%$31,156$29,8265.02%2.11%-1.40%
199582.15%0.26%$31,827$29,9052.15%-0.37%2.05%
199592.65%4.21%$32,670$31,1642.65%5.63%1.81%
1995102.36%-0.36%$33,441$31,051-3.84%2.36%2.97%
1995113.93%4.38%$34,756$32,4113.94%3.93%2.31%
1995120.30%1.93%$34,859$33,0372.24%0.30%2.70%
199614.03%3.39%$36,264$34,156-0.64%4.03%-0.05%
199623.12%0.92%$37,395$34,4714.41%3.12%-4.93%
19963-0.37%0.98%$37,258$34,8082.28%-0.37%-1.98%
199646.51%1.46%$39,683$35,3156.51%1.84%-1.78%
199654.68%2.54%$41,539$36,2134.68%2.93%-0.46%
19966-5.21%0.38%$39,374$36,352-5.21%2.19%2.14%
19967-4.76%-4.42%$37,498$34,745-7.96%-4.76%-0.05%
19968-1.29%2.10%$37,013$35,4735.16%1.94%-1.29%
199692.79%5.61%$38,045$37,4624.52%7.21%2.79%
1996100.99%2.76%$38,422$38,494-2.15%0.99%3.88%
1996117.19%7.56%$41,183$41,4061.75%7.19%3.24%
199612-2.28%-1.96%$40,243$40,5950.98%-2.28%-2.38%
199715.60%6.22%$42,497$43,1191.08%5.60%-0.65%
199720.72%0.79%$42,802$43,459-3.14%0.72%-0.11%
19973-5.43%-4.14%$40,480$41,662-5.52%-5.43%-2.29%
199742.35%5.96%$41,431$44,143-1.08%6.70%2.35%
199756.51%6.09%$44,130$46,83010.64%6.51%0.98%
199762.69%4.45%$45,317$48,9164.40%2.69%1.78%
199775.01%7.97%$47,588$52,8125.01%7.00%5.34%
199781.44%-5.61%$48,273$49,8501.44%-6.98%-2.57%
199797.81%5.47%$52,040$52,5767.81%3.60%2.63%
199710-4.62%-3.35%$49,635$50,815-4.62%-1.91%2.99%
1997111.27%4.60%$50,266$53,152-1.78%4.51%1.27%
1997121.48%1.72%$51,009$54,0690.78%1.48%1.66%
199812.89%1.11%$52,484$54,669-2.68%2.89%1.91%
199827.82%7.19%$56,590$58,6018.55%7.82%-0.75%
199834.11%5.10%$58,918$61,5924.02%4.11%0.14%
199842.38%1.01%$60,322$62,212-0.28%2.38%0.40%
19985-1.53%-1.74%$59,398$61,128-6.19%-1.53%1.83%
199866.40%4.07%$63,202$63,6160.16%6.40%2.35%
19987-0.59%-1.05%$62,828$62,946-7.01%-0.59%-0.51%
19988-14.12%-14.47%$53,960$53,835-19.34%-14.12%4.83%
199893.29%6.41%$55,733$57,2878.71%6.09%3.29%
199810-1.69%8.16%$54,788$61,9646.83%7.02%-1.69%
1998117.25%6.07%$58,762$65,7266.27%7.25%0.88%
1998128.67%5.81%$63,855$69,5418.60%8.67%-0.16%
199915.41%4.20%$67,313$72,4650.53%5.41%0.98%
19992-4.93%-3.12%$63,992$70,201-8.89%-4.93%-4.76%
199933.59%4.00%$66,291$73,0061.56%3.59%-0.34%
19994-0.80%3.85%$65,763$75,8187.47%-0.80%0.19%
199954.22%-2.39%$68,536$74,0074.22%-3.37%-1.68%
199965.52%5.56%$72,317$78,1195.52%7.40%-1.05%
19997-0.32%-3.13%$72,085$75,674-0.32%-3.62%-0.58%
19998-4.41%-0.50%$68,907$75,298-4.41%0.78%-0.49%
199990.91%-2.74%$69,531$73,2350.81%-1.98%0.91%
1999100.12%6.33%$69,615$77,8692.67%8.65%0.12%
1999113.28%2.02%$71,899$79,4448.46%3.28%-0.59%
19991216.73%5.98%$83,930$84,19316.73%7.08%-1.60%
200010.13%-5.03%$84,040$79,9560.13%-5.56%1.25%
2000220.07%-1.91%$100,907$78,43220.07%2.14%2.96%
20003-3.54%9.76%$97,335$86,087-3.54%9.03%3.14%
20004-6.25%-3.01%$91,256$83,499-6.25%-3.12%-0.66%
20005-5.23%-2.04%$86,483$81,797-6.11%-5.23%-0.46%
200062.30%2.49%$88,470$83,83212.31%9.09%2.30%
20007-5.19%-1.49%$83,881$82,582-5.19%-2.33%1.49%
2000810.00%6.19%$92,273$87,69411.33%10.00%2.08%
20009-3.61%-5.29%$88,940$83,055-3.61%-5.97%-0.85%
200010-3.45%-0.43%$85,873$82,698-3.45%-5.20%1.57%
2000112.99%-7.88%$88,442$76,183-12.07%-18.67%2.99%
2000122.45%0.50%$90,613$76,56810.29%-2.68%2.45%
200110.28%3.55%$90,869$79,2835.09%3.87%0.28%
20012-8.12%-9.14%$83,488$72,038-8.12%-21.66%1.80%
20013-0.60%-6.36%$82,984$67,459-7.10%-15.24%-0.60%
20014-2.56%7.77%$80,856$72,70110.09%15.26%-2.56%
200150.66%0.65%$81,387$73,1730.66%-0.91%0.21%
200163.25%-2.45%$84,031$71,3843.25%-5.92%0.76%
20017-4.62%-1.00%$80,148$70,670-4.62%-3.47%3.61%
200182.02%-6.27%$81,770$66,236-3.84%-9.00%2.02%
200190.88%-8.09%$82,490$60,877-14.66%-12.39%0.88%
2001105.12%1.90%$86,714$62,0317.54%7.80%5.12%
200111-5.07%7.65%$82,321$66,7799.11%10.94%-5.07%
2001120.14%0.87%$82,432$67,3626.69%0.14%-1.82%
20021-2.30%-1.47%$80,532$66,370-2.30%-5.25%1.20%
20022-3.92%-1.94%$77,376$65,085-3.92%-7.22%1.24%
20023-3.86%3.74%$74,392$67,5217.95%4.89%-3.86%
20024-1.93%-6.07%$72,955$63,419-1.93%-10.18%3.73%
20025-4.77%-0.75%$69,474$62,941-4.77%-2.69%0.39%
200261.76%-7.13%$70,695$58,450-7.97%-9.28%1.76%
200272.93%-7.72%$72,765$53,939-12.85%-7.84%2.93%
200284.28%0.65%$75,880$54,2910.26%1.73%4.28%
200294.02%-10.87%$78,926$48,387-6.69%-10.99%4.02%
200210-2.84%8.78%$76,687$52,6364.13%9.74%-2.84%
2002113.57%5.88%$79,422$55,7298.95%3.57%-0.98%
200212-6.37%-5.89%$74,363$52,445-6.37%-7.41%4.05%
20031-2.86%-2.62%$72,238$51,068-2.86%-2.40%-0.45%
200323.03%-1.52%$74,423$50,293-2.85%-0.93%3.03%
20033-1.13%0.96%$73,580$50,7741.35%3.17%-1.13%
200346.82%8.25%$78,596$54,9658.73%6.82%0.91%
200352.88%5.26%$80,859$57,85810.72%2.88%5.67%
200361.66%1.26%$82,202$58,5871.66%0.68%-1.48%
200375.28%1.74%$86,539$59,6095.28%3.61%-8.57%
200385.21%1.93%$91,047$60,7615.21%1.52%1.43%
20039-1.59%-1.07%$89,596$60,109-1.59%-1.07%5.07%
2003108.84%5.64%$97,515$63,5008.84%5.56%-2.58%
2003112.77%0.86%$100,217$64,0492.77%0.75%0.31%
2003121.08%5.22%$101,297$67,3931.08%3.25%1.23%
200413.57%1.82%$104,909$68,6203.57%3.03%1.74%
20042-0.06%1.38%$104,842$69,5651.15%-0.06%1.96%
200430.25%-1.51%$105,102$68,5120.25%-1.02%1.45%
20044-4.93%-1.58%$99,916$67,432-4.93%-2.46%-5.52%
20045-0.56%1.36%$99,359$68,3482.27%2.52%-0.56%
200461.42%1.93%$100,774$69,6672.84%1.42%0.87%
20047-7.69%-3.31%$93,022$67,360-7.69%-7.47%1.52%
200483.39%0.38%$96,172$67,618-2.12%-0.76%3.39%
200490.94%1.07%$97,072$68,3394.95%2.50%0.94%
2004102.57%1.51%$99,568$69,3742.57%1.42%1.46%
2004116.82%4.05%$106,359$72,1816.82%4.68%-2.25%
2004124.28%3.39%$110,911$74,6314.28%3.61%2.22%
20051-2.96%-2.45%$107,624$72,799-2.96%-3.46%2.59%
200522.05%2.09%$109,825$74,3232.05%0.77%-1.24%
20053-2.21%-1.76%$107,401$73,015-2.21%-2.86%-0.76%
200543.22%-1.91%$110,864$71,619-5.21%-2.42%3.22%
200552.55%3.17%$113,690$73,8886.68%7.10%2.55%
200560.56%0.13%$114,331$73,9822.64%0.56%1.64%
200576.26%3.71%$121,485$76,7246.26%5.23%-2.58%
20058-1.49%-0.91%$119,670$76,023-1.49%-0.83%2.87%
200590.71%0.79%$120,524$76,6270.71%1.37%-2.78%
2005100.29%-1.68%$120,878$75,340-2.96%0.29%-1.74%
2005115.04%3.76%$126,975$78,1775.70%5.04%0.57%
2005120.42%0.02%$127,505$78,1940.55%0.42%2.33%
200613.34%2.65%$131,767$80,2627.64%3.34%-0.90%
20062-0.46%0.26%$131,164$80,473-0.46%-1.83%0.81%
200634.01%1.23%$136,428$81,4644.01%0.33%-3.39%
200640.13%1.33%$136,608$82,5500.13%-0.44%-1.96%
20065-6.20%-2.90%$128,132$80,159-6.20%-5.83%-0.03%
200660.71%0.13%$129,036$80,261-0.60%-1.58%0.71%
200671.84%0.61%$131,411$80,748-4.90%-2.37%1.84%
200682.74%2.36%$135,007$82,6561.83%3.65%2.74%
200692.87%2.56%$138,885$84,7741.57%2.87%1.58%
2006101.88%3.25%$141,497$87,5304.42%1.88%0.77%
2006112.75%1.89%$145,393$89,1842.75%1.96%1.91%
200612-0.11%1.39%$145,236$90,425-0.11%0.20%-2.14%
200713.19%1.49%$149,863$91,7753.19%2.20%-0.85%
20072-0.25%-1.97%$149,493$89,968-0.25%-1.72%2.93%
200730.79%1.11%$150,679$90,9680.79%0.93%-1.13%
200743.39%4.42%$155,792$94,9873.39%2.88%0.86%
200754.67%3.48%$163,063$98,2894.67%3.38%-1.93%
20076-1.41%-1.68%$160,769$96,642-1.41%-1.12%-0.88%
20077-4.84%-3.08%$152,993$93,661-4.84%-0.77%2.39%
200781.97%1.50%$156,013$95,0641.02%1.09%1.97%
200790.21%3.72%$156,343$98,6042.92%4.94%0.21%
2007102.16%1.58%$159,716$100,1612.58%2.16%1.40%
200711-3.89%-4.19%$153,508$95,967-5.96%-3.89%4.59%
200712-0.48%-0.70%$152,773$95,296-0.55%-0.02%-0.48%
200812.64%-6.02%$156,809$89,563-8.99%-10.40%2.64%
200820.35%-3.25%$157,358$86,651-2.50%-2.30%0.35%
200831.02%-0.44%$158,965$86,269-1.12%-0.06%1.02%
20084-1.84%4.85%$156,041$90,4575.22%6.31%-1.84%
200853.02%1.29%$160,759$91,6265.19%3.02%-2.13%
20086-6.99%-8.44%$149,527$83,895-6.99%-6.29%1.80%
200870.30%-0.83%$149,969$83,197-0.31%-0.39%0.30%
200881.80%1.45%$152,675$84,4001.93%0.45%1.80%
200890.28%-8.91%$153,108$76,883-12.06%-11.63%0.28%
200810-3.63%-16.79%$147,553$63,973-20.74%-15.43%-3.63%
20081112.07%-7.17%$165,358$59,383-10.58%-7.93%12.07%
2008128.87%1.07%$180,018$60,0164.20%0.57%8.87%
20091-8.47%-8.41%$164,770$54,968-6.53%-4.49%-8.47%
20092-1.01%-10.66%$163,109$49,110-8.63%-7.51%-1.01%
200935.27%8.76%$171,697$53,4128.22%8.49%5.27%
200948.94%9.56%$187,040$58,51713.43%8.94%-4.99%
200953.17%5.62%$192,967$61,8053.17%4.22%-2.68%
200962.37%0.22%$197,540$61,9402.37%1.12%0.70%
200978.36%7.58%$214,051$66,6348.36%7.86%0.80%
200982.16%3.60%$218,665$69,0322.16%1.92%1.68%
200996.25%3.72%$232,340$71,5986.25%4.92%1.98%
200910-5.67%-1.87%$219,173$70,261-5.67%-1.35%-1.45%
2009114.95%5.98%$230,025$74,4643.36%4.95%1.91%
2009122.70%1.95%$236,241$75,9127.26%2.70%-5.66%
20101-3.87%-3.60%$227,088$73,177-3.87%-6.32%2.66%
201024.34%3.09%$236,942$75,4394.34%3.70%-0.21%
201038.20%6.01%$256,361$79,9768.20%6.07%-1.51%
201043.91%1.58%$266,380$81,2383.91%0.59%2.76%
20105-7.03%-8.01%$247,662$74,734-7.03%-8.56%4.23%
201064.67%-5.24%$259,217$70,819-6.73%-5.83%4.67%
20107-0.17%7.00%$258,774$75,7736.76%6.26%-0.17%
201087.08%-4.53%$277,093$72,341-5.97%-5.51%7.08%
20109-1.82%8.92%$272,044$78,79312.94%10.10%-1.82%
2010103.92%3.79%$282,706$81,7783.92%5.73%-3.29%
2010111.05%0.00%$285,670$81,7783.18%1.05%-1.60%
2010127.19%6.67%$306,205$87,2347.19%5.81%-3.58%
201111.11%2.36%$309,606$89,2901.11%2.19%-2.38%
201125.43%3.42%$326,405$92,3405.43%3.91%1.24%
201132.53%0.03%$334,679$92,3642.53%-0.26%0.02%
201143.22%2.95%$345,472$95,0873.22%3.47%2.04%
20115-0.95%-1.15%$342,197$93,997-0.95%-1.25%3.29%
20116-1.90%-1.67%$335,687$92,426-1.90%-1.06%-2.00%
201174.18%-2.05%$349,718$90,534-4.20%-1.07%4.18%
201188.68%-5.45%$380,080$85,603-8.74%-6.26%8.68%
2011910.16%-7.04%$418,706$79,574-9.70%-8.77%10.16%
201110-3.34%10.91%$404,742$88,25915.72%12.22%-3.34%
201111-1.33%-0.23%$399,365$88,053-1.33%-1.29%1.82%
201112-0.71%1.02%$396,510$88,949-0.71%-1.00%3.13%
201217.07%4.46%$424,538$92,9207.07%6.81%0.08%
201224.61%4.31%$444,131$96,9224.61%7.37%-2.11%
201233.09%3.28%$457,862$100,1021.89%3.09%-3.77%
20124-0.47%-0.64%$455,717$99,462-0.97%-0.47%4.37%
20125-8.19%-6.02%$418,384$93,476-7.51%-8.19%7.79%
20126-1.44%4.11%$412,341$97,3172.41%2.62%-1.44%
201273.32%1.37%$426,040$98,651-1.63%0.40%3.32%
20128-1.06%2.24%$421,513$100,8603.83%3.48%-1.06%
201292.26%2.58%$431,042$103,4582.27%2.26%-2.10%
201210-2.92%-1.86%$418,472$101,535-2.32%-2.92%-0.43%
2012112.54%0.56%$429,090$102,1032.54%3.05%1.35%
2012120.50%0.90%$431,231$103,0242.58%0.50%-1.99%
201316.80%5.18%$460,533$108,3576.80%5.41%-3.27%
201320.68%1.34%$463,680$109,8080.68%0.62%1.26%
201334.70%3.74%$485,494$113,9134.70%3.37%0.03%
201340.56%1.91%$488,207$116,0870.56%0.47%3.87%
201354.88%2.33%$512,029$118,7894.88%2.18%-6.23%
20136-0.54%-1.35%$509,261$117,185-0.54%-1.50%-3.26%
201377.29%5.07%$546,377$123,1297.29%5.90%-1.93%
20138-1.75%-2.91%$536,827$119,544-1.75%-1.16%-1.28%
201395.96%3.12%$568,842$123,2755.96%5.19%0.88%
2013102.99%4.59%$585,827$128,9292.99%3.47%1.32%
2013113.72%3.03%$607,645$132,8342.88%3.72%-2.49%
2013123.43%2.51%$628,497$136,1733.29%3.43%-2.37%
20141-2.82%-3.47%$610,752$131,449-2.63%-2.82%6.26%
201426.78%4.56%$652,156$137,4444.83%6.78%0.60%
20143-2.99%0.82%$632,659$138,576-1.24%-2.99%0.63%
20144-3.66%0.72%$609,472$139,580-3.66%-0.97%1.82%
201452.73%2.33%$626,102$142,8390.61%3.32%2.73%
201462.57%2.05%$642,204$145,7704.73%2.57%-0.16%
20147-1.68%-1.39%$631,399$143,746-5.33%-1.68%0.59%
201484.13%3.98%$657,460$149,4705.09%4.13%4.23%
20149-1.51%-1.41%$647,501$147,358-4.18%-1.51%-1.99%
2014103.60%2.42%$670,808$150,9294.38%3.60%2.61%
2014113.32%2.68%$693,055$154,9780.88%3.32%2.86%
201412-0.84%-0.26%$687,250$154,5681.16%-0.84%2.82%
20151-3.00%-3.02%$666,630$149,904-3.00%-1.37%8.97%
20152-5.66%5.74%$628,915$158,5088.05%6.88%-5.66%
201531.42%-1.59%$637,820$155,9821.42%-0.89%1.13%
20154-1.64%0.95%$627,366$157,462-1.64%-0.03%-3.07%
201551.55%1.27%$637,110$159,4661.55%2.11%-2.16%
20156-0.63%-1.93%$633,116$156,3840.17%-0.63%-3.73%
201574.01%2.08%$658,481$159,637-0.63%4.01%4.21%
20158-6.31%-6.04%$616,939$149,992-6.71%-6.31%-0.71%
201591.91%-2.49%$628,729$146,257-6.04%-3.04%1.91%
201510-0.48%8.42%$625,719$158,5765.11%7.91%-0.48%
2015110.68%0.29%$629,978$159,0302.24%0.68%-0.81%
201512-0.30%-1.59%$628,091$156,498-3.92%-0.30%-0.34%
20161-6.71%-4.98%$585,923$148,709-9.16%-6.71%5.24%
201622.86%-0.15%$602,678$148,4930.74%-1.33%2.86%
201630.05%6.78%$602,992$158,5547.99%4.85%0.05%
201641.41%0.37%$611,488$159,1471.41%-0.70%-0.63%
201651.43%1.78%$620,212$161,9841.43%3.05%0.69%
20166-0.23%0.25%$618,771$162,389-0.23%-2.04%6.57%
201675.74%3.68%$654,272$168,3595.74%6.14%2.01%
201681.19%0.13%$662,086$168,5771.19%-0.88%-1.00%
201691.18%0.01%$669,899$168,5911.18%0.86%-1.32%
201610-4.98%-1.83%$636,522$165,501-4.98%-2.84%-4.23%
201611-7.86%3.70%$586,507$171,6236.84%-0.50%-7.86%
2016120.79%1.96%$591,162$174,9910.79%0.02%-0.35%
201712.94%1.88%$608,519$178,2862.94%3.67%0.65%
201722.58%3.96%$624,236$185,3512.58%3.61%1.57%
201731.41%0.10%$633,014$185,5370.54%1.41%-0.59%
201743.03%1.02%$652,166$187,4261.69%3.03%1.58%
201752.97%1.39%$671,518$190,0380.24%2.97%1.73%
201760.33%0.61%$673,712$191,2002.64%0.33%0.63%
201771.04%2.04%$680,724$195,1051.04%3.49%-0.59%
201781.92%0.29%$693,774$195,678-0.66%1.92%3.27%
201791.46%2.06%$703,902$199,7074.06%1.46%-2.27%
2017101.73%2.32%$716,106$204,3351.73%3.07%-0.02%
2017112.36%3.06%$733,023$210,5873.22%2.36%0.63%
2017120.93%1.10%$739,805$212,9070.93%0.54%1.78%
201814.78%5.71%$775,156$225,0704.78%8.38%-3.40%
20182-1.87%-3.69%$760,663$216,754-1.90%-1.87%-2.89%
20183-1.91%-2.56%$746,171$211,2161.31%-1.91%2.75%
201840.28%0.37%$748,282$212,0040.28%0.29%-2.04%
201855.94%2.39%$792,703$217,0805.94%4.48%1.79%
201860.86%0.61%$799,490$218,3940.86%1.25%0.66%
201872.12%3.71%$816,459$226,4952.12%2.18%-1.28%
201887.34%3.25%$876,415$233,8477.34%4.87%1.18%
20189-0.94%0.55%$868,194$235,144-0.94%0.21%-2.74%
201810-11.18%-6.85%$771,133$219,039-11.18%-9.26%-2.82%
2018111.78%2.03%$784,890$223,4781.89%2.67%1.78%
2018125.50%-9.04%$828,083$203,275-11.09%-9.11%5.50%
Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricTiming PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)1.25%0.88%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)16.09%11.09%
Geometric Mean (monthly)1.16%0.79%
Geometric Mean (annualized)14.80%9.87%
Volatility (monthly)4.31%4.27%
Volatility (annualized)14.94%14.79%
Downside Deviation (monthly)2.65%2.88%
Max. Drawdown-31.15%-50.97%
US Market Correlation0.560.99
Beta(*)0.531.00
Alpha (annualized)9.43%0.00%
R227.36%100.00%
Sharpe Ratio0.790.50
Sortino Ratio1.240.71
Treynor Ratio (%)22.477.42
Calmar Ratio0.780.67
Active Return4.93%N/A
Tracking Error14.52%N/A
Information Ratio0.34N/A
Skewness-0.71-0.84
Excess Kurtosis6.412.77
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-5.64%-6.99%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-5.84%-6.14%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-8.69%-9.93%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)80.37100.00
Downside Capture Ratio (%)44.70100.00
Safe Withdrawal Rate10.40%9.07%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate10.63%6.62%
Positive Periods258 out of 384 (67.19%)252 out of 384 (65.63%)
Gain/Loss Ratio1.070.89
* Vanguard 500 Index Investor is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEndTiming PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
Black Monday PeriodSep 1987Nov 1987-28.09%-29.78%
Asian CrisisJul 1997Jan 1998-4.62%-5.61%
Russian Debt DefaultJul 1998Oct 1998-14.62%-15.38%
Dotcom CrashMar 2000Oct 2002-31.15%-44.82%
Subprime CrisisNov 2007Mar 2009-9.39%-50.97%

Drawdowns for Timing Portfolio

Drawdowns for Timing Portfolio (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Mar 2000May 20022 years 3 monthsDec 20031 year 7 months3 years 10 months-31.15%
2Oct 1987Oct 19871 monthMay 19891 year 7 months1 year 8 months-28.09%
3Dec 2014Jan 20161 year 2 monthsAug 20171 year 7 months2 years 9 months-15.46%
4Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsDec 19984 months6 months-14.62%
5Sep 2018Oct 20182 months-12.01%
6Apr 2004Jul 20044 monthsNov 20044 months8 months-11.49%
7Jun 1996Aug 19963 monthsJan 19975 months8 months-10.90%
8Jul 1990Aug 19902 monthsDec 19904 months6 months-10.36%
9Apr 2012Jun 20123 monthsJan 20137 months10 months-9.94%
10Feb 1994Jun 19945 monthsFeb 19958 months1 year 1 month-9.75%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Vanguard 500 Index Investor

Drawdowns for Vanguard 500 Index Investor (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsAug 20123 years 6 months4 years 10 months-50.97%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 monthNov 20064 years 2 months6 years 3 months-44.82%
3Sep 1987Nov 19873 monthsMay 19891 year 6 months1 year 9 months-29.78%
4Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-15.38%
5Jun 1990Oct 19905 monthsFeb 19914 months9 months-14.70%
6Oct 2018Dec 20183 months-13.55%
7Aug 2015Sep 20152 monthsMay 20168 months10 months-8.38%
8Feb 1994Mar 19942 monthsAug 19945 months7 months-6.98%
9Jan 2000Feb 20002 monthsMar 20001 month3 months-6.84%
10Jan 1990Jan 19901 monthMay 19904 months5 months-6.72%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above
Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodTiming PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
AverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year15.94%45.74%-18.34%11.27%37.45%-37.02%
3 years15.88%30.11%-3.95%10.65%31.03%-14.60%
5 years16.14%28.41%5.67%10.27%28.49%-2.38%
7 years16.15%23.96%7.75%9.83%21.44%-1.64%
10 years16.11%20.47%10.90%9.32%19.04%-1.46%
15 years15.25%16.67%13.34%8.25%13.56%4.13%
Result statistics are based on annualized rolling returns over full calendar year periods
Timing periods and related holdings for the timing portfolio
#StartEndMonthsAssetsAsset PerformanceTiming PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
1Jan 1987Jan 19871100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.30%1.30%13.27%
2Feb 1987Mar 19872100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 7.98%7.98%6.94%
3Apr 1987Apr 19871100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: -3.67%-3.67%-0.99%
4May 1987Jun 19872100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -0.08%-0.08%6.11%
5Jul 1987Aug 19872100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 4.60%4.60%8.94%
6Sep 1987Oct 19872100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -27.36%-27.36%-23.52%
7Nov 1987Jan 19883100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 6.83%6.83%2.87%
8Feb 1988Jun 19885100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 19.36%19.36%7.97%
9Jul 1988Jul 19881100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: -2.50%-2.50%-0.37%
10Aug 1988Aug 19881100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -2.42%-2.42%-3.40%
11Sep 1988Sep 19881100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 3.86%3.86%4.26%
12Oct 1988Nov 19882100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: -1.71%-1.71%1.22%
13Dec 1988Dec 19881100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.29%1.29%1.74%
14Jan 1989Jan 19891100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 3.02%3.02%7.32%
15Feb 1989Oct 19899100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 25.25%25.25%17.18%
16Nov 1989Nov 19891100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 0.83%0.83%2.04%
17Dec 1989Jan 19902100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: -4.95%-4.95%-4.50%
18Feb 1990Mar 19902100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -0.58%-0.58%3.92%
19Apr 1990Aug 19905100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 1.07%1.07%-3.69%
20Sep 1990Nov 19903100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 8.08%8.08%0.82%
21Dec 1990Dec 19901100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 4.40%4.40%2.72%
22Jan 1991Jun 19916100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 27.05%27.05%14.14%
23Jul 1991Jul 19911100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.53%1.53%4.63%
24Aug 1991Aug 19911100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 4.11%4.11%2.33%
25Sep 1991Nov 19913100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -1.03%-1.03%-4.36%
26Dec 1991Dec 19911100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 6.26%6.26%11.41%
27Jan 1992Jan 19921100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: -2.30%-2.30%-1.88%
28Feb 1992Mar 19922100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -4.12%-4.12%-0.71%
29Apr 1992Jul 19924100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 7.94%7.94%5.99%
30Aug 1992Sep 19922100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 0.61%0.61%-0.92%
31Oct 1992Feb 19935100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 12.63%12.63%7.28%
32Mar 1993May 19933100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.34%1.34%2.28%
33Jun 1993Nov 19936100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 9.74%9.74%3.89%
34Dec 1993Dec 19931100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 1.12%1.12%1.22%
35Jan 1994Mar 19943100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -3.10%-3.10%-3.84%
36Apr 1994May 19942100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -1.75%-1.75%2.91%
37Jun 1994Jun 19941100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: -2.93%-2.93%-2.45%
38Jul 1994Jul 19941100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.94%2.94%3.28%
39Aug 1994Aug 19941100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 4.09%4.09%4.08%
40Sep 1994Nov 19943100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -1.72%-1.72%-3.90%
41Dec 1994Jan 19952100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 4.28%4.28%4.08%
42Feb 1995Jul 19956100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 19.92%19.92%20.96%
43Aug 1995Sep 19952100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 4.86%4.86%4.49%
44Oct 1995Mar 19966100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 14.04%14.04%11.69%
45Apr 1996Jun 19963100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 5.68%5.68%4.44%
46Jul 1996Jul 19961100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: -4.76%-4.76%-4.42%
47Aug 1996Sep 19962100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.46%1.46%7.82%
48Oct 1996Mar 19976100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 6.40%6.40%11.21%
49Apr 1997Apr 19971100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.35%2.35%5.96%
50May 1997Jun 19972100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 9.38%9.38%10.81%
51Jul 1997Oct 19974100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 9.53%9.53%3.88%
52Nov 1997Nov 19971100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.27%1.27%4.60%
53Dec 1997Aug 19989100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 7.35%7.35%1.29%
54Sep 1998Oct 19982100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.54%1.54%15.10%
55Nov 1998Apr 19996100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 20.03%20.03%22.36%
56May 1999Aug 19994100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 4.78%4.78%-0.69%
57Sep 1999Oct 19992100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.03%1.03%3.41%
58Nov 1999Nov 19991100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 3.28%3.28%2.02%
59Dec 1999Apr 20005100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 26.92%26.92%5.10%
60May 2000May 20001100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: -5.23%-5.23%-2.04%
61Jun 2000Jun 20001100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.30%2.30%2.49%
62Jul 2000Jul 20001100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -5.19%-5.19%-1.49%
63Aug 2000Aug 20001100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 10.00%10.00%6.19%
64Sep 2000Oct 20002100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -6.94%-6.94%-5.70%
65Nov 2000Jan 20013100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 5.82%5.82%-4.13%
66Feb 2001Feb 20011100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -8.12%-8.12%-9.14%
67Mar 2001Apr 20012100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -3.15%-3.15%0.92%
68May 2001Jul 20013100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -0.88%-0.88%-2.79%
69Aug 2001Nov 20014100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.71%2.71%-5.51%
70Dec 2001Dec 20011100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 0.14%0.14%0.87%
71Jan 2002Feb 20022100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -6.13%-6.13%-3.38%
72Mar 2002Mar 20021100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -3.86%-3.86%3.74%
73Apr 2002May 20022100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -6.61%-6.61%-6.78%
74Jun 2002Oct 20025100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 10.38%10.38%-16.37%
75Nov 2002Nov 20021100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 3.57%3.57%5.88%
76Dec 2002Jan 20032100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -9.05%-9.05%-8.36%
77Feb 2003Mar 20032100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.86%1.86%-0.58%
78Apr 2003May 20032100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 9.89%9.89%13.95%
79Jun 2003Jan 20048100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 29.74%29.74%18.60%
80Feb 2004Feb 20041100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: -0.06%-0.06%1.38%
81Mar 2004Apr 20042100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -4.70%-4.70%-3.07%
82May 2004May 20041100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -0.56%-0.56%1.36%
83Jun 2004Jun 20041100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 1.42%1.42%1.93%
84Jul 2004Jul 20041100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -7.69%-7.69%-3.31%
85Aug 2004Sep 20042100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 4.35%4.35%1.45%
86Oct 2004Mar 20056100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 10.64%10.64%6.84%
87Apr 2005May 20052100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 5.86%5.86%1.19%
88Jun 2005Jun 20051100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 0.56%0.56%0.13%
89Jul 2005Sep 20053100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 5.42%5.42%3.58%
90Oct 2005Jan 20064100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 9.33%9.33%4.74%
91Feb 2006May 20064100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -2.76%-2.76%-0.13%
92Jun 2006Aug 20063100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 5.37%5.37%3.11%
93Sep 2006Oct 20062100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 4.81%4.81%5.90%
94Nov 2006Jul 20079100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 8.12%8.12%7.00%
95Aug 2007Sep 20072100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.19%2.19%5.28%
96Oct 2007Nov 20072100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: -1.81%-1.81%-2.67%
97Dec 2007Apr 20085100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.65%1.65%-5.74%
98May 2008May 20081100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 3.02%3.02%1.29%
99Jun 2008Jun 20081100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -6.99%-6.99%-8.44%
100Jul 2008Mar 20099100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 14.83%14.83%-36.33%
101Apr 2009Apr 20091100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 8.94%8.94%9.56%
102May 2009Oct 20096100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 17.18%17.18%20.07%
103Nov 2009Dec 20092100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 7.79%7.79%8.04%
104Jan 2010May 20105100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 4.83%4.83%-1.55%
105Jun 2010Sep 20104100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 9.84%9.84%5.43%
106Oct 2010Oct 20101100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 3.92%3.92%3.79%
107Nov 2010Nov 20101100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 1.05%1.05%0.00%
108Dec 2010Jun 20117100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 17.51%17.51%13.02%
109Jul 2011Oct 20114100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 20.57%20.57%-4.51%
110Nov 2011Feb 20124100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 9.73%9.73%9.82%
111Mar 2012May 20123100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: -5.80%-5.80%-3.55%
112Jun 2012Aug 20123100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 0.75%0.75%7.90%
113Sep 2012Oct 20122100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: -0.72%-0.72%0.67%
114Nov 2012Nov 20121100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 2.54%2.54%0.56%
115Dec 2012Dec 20121100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 0.50%0.50%0.90%
116Jan 2013Oct 201310100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 35.85%35.85%25.14%
117Nov 2013Mar 20145100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 7.99%7.99%7.48%
118Apr 2014Apr 20141100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -3.66%-3.66%0.72%
119May 2014May 20141100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.73%2.73%2.33%
120Jun 2014Dec 20147100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 9.77%9.77%8.21%
121Jan 2015Jan 20151100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: -3.00%-3.00%-3.02%
122Feb 2015Feb 20151100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -5.66%-5.66%5.74%
123Mar 2015May 20153100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 1.30%1.30%0.60%
124Jun 2015Aug 20153100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: -3.17%-3.17%-5.94%
125Sep 2015Oct 20152100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.42%1.42%5.72%
126Nov 2015Jan 20163100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: -6.36%-6.36%-6.22%
127Feb 2016Mar 20162100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.91%2.91%6.62%
128Apr 2016Oct 20167100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 5.56%5.56%4.38%
129Nov 2016Nov 20161100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -7.86%-7.86%3.70%
130Dec 2016Feb 20173100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 6.43%6.43%8.00%
131Mar 2017Jun 20174100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 7.93%7.93%3.16%
132Jul 2017Jul 20171100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 1.04%1.04%2.04%
133Aug 2017Sep 20172100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 3.40%3.40%2.36%
134Oct 2017Oct 20171100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 1.73%1.73%2.32%
135Nov 2017Nov 20171100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: 2.36%2.36%3.06%
136Dec 2017Jan 20182100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 5.75%5.75%6.88%
137Feb 2018Mar 20182100.00% Vanguard US Growth Investor (VWUSX)VWUSX: -3.74%-3.74%-6.16%
138Apr 2018Oct 20187100.00% Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX)VEXPX: 3.35%3.35%3.70%
139Nov 2018Dec 20182100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 7.39%7.39%-7.20%
140Jan 2019Jan 20191Please sign-in for forward signals---