Test Market Timing Models

This tool allows you to test different market timing and tactical asset allocation models based on moving averages, momentum, market valuation and target volatility. The supported models include:

Shiller PE Ratio Market Valuation
Moving Averages - Single Asset
Moving Averages - Portfolio Assets
Momentum - Relative Strength
Momentum - Dual Momentum
Momentum - Adaptive Allocation
Target Volatility

You can find a summary of the selected tactical asset allocation model below, and a more detailed description in the FAQ section.

Shiller PE Ratio Market Valuation

Shiller PE Ratio (PE10) market valuation based timing model adjusts the allocation between stocks and bonds as follows:

PE10 >= 22 - 40% stocks, 60% bonds
14 <= PE10 < 22 - 60% stocks, 40% bonds
PE10 < 14 - 80% stocks, 20% bonds

The balanced 60% stock and 40% bond allocation is used as the benchmark portfolio.

Moving Averages - Single Asset

The moving average timing model is either invested in a a specific stock, ETF or mutual fund, or is alternatively in cash or other risk-free asset based on the moving average signal. The model is invested in the asset when the adjusted close price is greater than the moving average and the model moves to cash when the adjusted close price is less than the moving average. The model also supports using moving average cross-over as the signal.

Moving Averages - Portfolio Assets

The moving average model applies the moving average signal to each portfolio asset. The model is invested in a portfolio asset when the adjusted close price is greater than the moving average and the allocation is moved to cash when the adjusted close price is less than the moving average. The model also supports using moving average cross-over as the signal.

Momentum - Relative Strength

The relative strength momentum model invests in the best performing assets in the model based on each asset's past return. The momentum can be based on a single timing period, or multiple weighted timing periods. Additionally the model supports using moving averages as a risk control to decide whether investments should be moved to cash.

Momentum - Dual Momentum

The dual momentum model uses relative momentum to select the best performing model assets and incorporates absolute momentum as a filter to invest in cash if the excess return of the selected asset over cash is negative.

Adaptive Allocation

The adaptive asset allocation model combines relative strength momentum model with different asset weighting. The relative strength model uses an equal weight allocation for the model selected assets, whereas the adaptive asset allocation uses either risk parity allocation or minimum variance allocation for the model assets to minimize the expected volatility.

Target Volatility

The target volatility model adjusts the market exposure of the portfolio based on the realized historic volatility and the given volatility target. The cash allocation in the portfolio is increased or decreased as required to meet the targeted volatility level in order to improve the risk adjusted performance.

Timing Model

Start Year

End Year

Initial Amount

$ .00

Cashflows

Contribution Amount

$ .00

Inflation Adjusted

Withdrawal Percentage

Frequency

Ticker

Tickers

Single absolute momentum

Absolute momentum asset

Target Volatility

Use Downside Volatility

Out of Market Asset

Specify out of market asset

Buy Signal

Type of Moving Average

Performance Periods

Period Weighting

Timing Period

Timing period in trading days

Type of Moving Average #2

Timing Period #2

Timing period #2 in trading days

Exclude Previous Month

Normalize Returns

Volatility Period

Volatility window in trading days

Assets to hold

Allocation Weights

Risk Control

Risk Window Period

Risk window in trading days

Trading Frequency

Signal Asset

Specify signal asset

Trade Execution

Compared Allocation

Benchmark

Benchmark Ticker

Timing Periods

Length

Unit

Weight

Time Period #1

Period 1 length

Period 1 time unit

Period 1 weight %

Time Period #2

Period 2 length

Period 2 time unit

Period 2 weight %

Time Period #3

Period 3 length

Period 3 time unit

Period 3 weight %

Time Period #4

Period 4 length

Period 4 time unit

Period 4 weight %

Time Period #5

Period 5 length

Period 5 time unit

Period 5 weight %

Volatility Period

Volatility period length

Volatility period time unit

Volatility period weight %

Asset 1

Select asset 1

Enter percentage allocation for asset 1 %

Asset 2

Select asset 2

Enter percentage allocation for asset 2 %

Asset 3

Select asset 3

Enter percentage allocation for asset 3 %

Asset 4

Select asset 4

Enter percentage allocation for asset 4 %

Asset 5

Select asset 5

Enter percentage allocation for asset 5 %

Asset 6

Select asset 6

Enter percentage allocation for asset 6 %

Asset 7

Select asset 7

Enter percentage allocation for asset 7 %

Asset 8

Select asset 8

Enter percentage allocation for asset 8 %

Asset 9

Select asset 9

Enter percentage allocation for asset 9 %

Asset 10

Select asset 10

Enter percentage allocation for asset 10 %

Total

Total allocation for portfolio %

Market Timing Results (Jan 1998 - Dec 2018) Save

Market timing results from 1998 to 2018 are based on relative strength model holding the best performing asset. The model uses multiple weighted performance windows to rank the assets by weighted average of asset performance. Timing model trades are executed using the end of month close price each month based on the end of month signals. The time period was constrained by the available data for Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX) [Dec 1996 - Jan 2020].

Performance statistics for the timing portfolio and benchmark portfolios
Portfolio	Initial Balance	Final Balance	CAGR	Stdev	Best Year	Worst Year	Max. Drawdown	Sharpe Ratio	Sortino Ratio	US Mkt Correlation
Timing Portfolio	$10,000	$92,020	11.15%	20.84%	90.29%	-48.53%	-60.22%	0.52	0.78	0.75
Vanguard International Explorer Inv	$10,000	$70,015	9.71%	18.91%	90.29%	-46.62%	-59.56%	0.49	0.71	0.77

Notes on results:

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
The backtested performance results are created by retroactively applying the specified investment strategy or methodology to historical data. Backtested models are developed with the benefit of hindsight but might not have foresight of the future.
The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
The selected portfolio allocation for comparison assumes monthly rebalancing
An equal-weight allocation is used for the assets held by the momentum model
The results for the timing portfolio assume monthly rebalancing trades
The relative strength signal is based on total return including dividends
Additional trading costs and taxes for timing models are not reflected in the results
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over the risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
Drawdowns are calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
Refer to the FAQ section regarding the data sources and methodology descriptions

Annual returns for the timing portfolio and various benchmark portfolios
Year	Inflation	Return		Balance		Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)
Year	Inflation	Timing Portfolio	Vanguard International Explorer Inv	Timing Portfolio	Vanguard International Explorer Inv	Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)
1998	1.61%	25.98%	25.98%	$12,598	$12,598	-18.12%	25.98%
1999	2.68%	90.29%	90.29%	$23,973	$23,973	61.57%	90.29%
2000	3.39%	-2.68%	-2.68%	$23,331	$23,331	-27.56%	-2.68%
2001	1.55%	-14.85%	-22.52%	$19,866	$18,078	-2.88%	-22.52%
2002	2.38%	-8.01%	-13.88%	$18,275	$15,569	-7.43%	-13.88%
2003	1.88%	52.47%	57.37%	$27,865	$24,501	57.65%	57.37%
2004	3.26%	30.20%	31.77%	$36,280	$32,286	26.12%	31.77%
2005	3.42%	29.33%	20.49%	$46,922	$38,903	32.05%	20.49%
2006	2.54%	20.45%	30.34%	$56,519	$50,708	29.39%	30.34%
2007	4.08%	34.82%	5.15%	$76,199	$53,320	38.90%	5.15%
2008	0.09%	-48.53%	-46.62%	$39,216	$28,463	-52.81%	-46.62%
2009	2.72%	60.14%	47.12%	$62,801	$41,875	75.98%	47.12%
2010	1.50%	18.86%	22.55%	$74,646	$51,317	18.86%	22.55%
2011	2.96%	-22.33%	-19.74%	$57,980	$41,188	-18.78%	-19.74%
2012	1.74%	11.61%	17.93%	$64,714	$48,572	18.64%	17.93%
2013	1.50%	24.83%	30.24%	$80,783	$63,258	-5.19%	30.24%
2014	0.76%	-3.13%	-2.88%	$78,253	$61,438	0.42%	-2.88%
2015	0.73%	6.10%	8.60%	$83,030	$66,723	-15.47%	8.60%
2016	2.07%	-2.12%	-1.77%	$81,272	$65,545	11.50%	-1.77%
2017	2.11%	34.15%	38.77%	$109,031	$90,955	31.15%	38.77%
2018	1.91%	-15.60%	-23.02%	$92,020	$70,015	-14.71%	-23.02%

Monthly returns for the timing portfolio and various benchmark portfolios
Year	Month	Return		Balance		Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)
Year	Month	Timing Portfolio	Vanguard International Explorer Inv	Timing Portfolio	Vanguard International Explorer Inv	Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)
1998	1	7.75%	7.75%	$10,775	$10,775	-8.02%	7.75%
1998	2	5.57%	5.57%	$11,375	$11,375	11.87%	5.57%
1998	3	5.71%	5.71%	$12,025	$12,025	3.60%	5.71%
1998	4	5.09%	5.09%	$12,637	$12,637	-1.03%	5.09%
1998	5	5.04%	5.04%	$13,275	$13,275	-12.54%	5.04%
1998	6	-0.38%	-0.38%	$13,225	$13,225	-9.34%	-0.38%
1998	7	2.36%	2.36%	$13,537	$13,537	1.80%	2.36%
1998	8	-12.74%	-12.74%	$11,812	$11,812	-26.12%	-12.74%
1998	9	-5.29%	-5.29%	$11,187	$11,187	9.39%	-5.29%
1998	10	4.47%	4.47%	$11,687	$11,687	15.43%	4.47%
1998	11	3.42%	3.42%	$12,088	$12,088	6.31%	3.42%
1998	12	4.22%	4.22%	$12,598	$12,598	-3.07%	4.22%
1999	1	1.82%	1.82%	$12,828	$12,828	-2.91%	1.82%
1999	2	5.06%	5.06%	$13,476	$13,476	2.21%	5.06%
1999	3	5.22%	5.22%	$14,179	$14,179	11.72%	5.22%
1999	4	8.29%	8.29%	$15,355	$15,355	15.39%	8.29%
1999	5	-0.88%	-0.88%	$15,220	$15,220	-4.15%	-0.88%
1999	6	12.43%	12.43%	$17,113	$17,113	7.94%	12.43%
1999	7	9.00%	9.00%	$18,653	$18,653	-3.44%	9.00%
1999	8	3.19%	3.19%	$19,248	$19,248	-0.99%	3.19%
1999	9	-1.40%	-1.40%	$18,978	$18,978	-0.50%	-1.40%
1999	10	1.85%	1.85%	$19,329	$19,329	3.82%	1.85%
1999	11	11.96%	11.96%	$21,641	$21,641	8.12%	11.96%
1999	12	10.78%	10.78%	$23,973	$23,973	14.31%	10.78%
2000	1	11.64%	11.64%	$26,764	$26,764	-4.88%	11.64%
2000	2	17.38%	17.38%	$31,415	$31,415	3.53%	17.38%
2000	3	-3.93%	-3.93%	$30,180	$30,180	-0.90%	-3.93%
2000	4	-11.47%	-11.47%	$26,718	$26,718	-7.47%	-11.47%
2000	5	-6.68%	-6.68%	$24,934	$24,934	-5.32%	-6.68%
2000	6	5.99%	5.99%	$26,428	$26,428	6.27%	5.99%
2000	7	-2.65%	-2.65%	$25,727	$25,727	-5.20%	-2.65%
2000	8	3.50%	3.50%	$26,626	$26,626	1.49%	3.50%
2000	9	-2.69%	-2.69%	$25,910	$25,910	-6.14%	-2.69%
2000	10	-8.77%	-8.77%	$23,637	$23,637	-7.61%	-8.77%
2000	11	-4.32%	-4.32%	$22,616	$22,616	-9.82%	-4.32%
2000	12	3.16%	3.16%	$23,331	$23,331	5.95%	3.16%
2001	1	1.67%	1.67%	$23,721	$23,721	11.76%	1.67%
2001	2	-8.70%	-4.78%	$21,656	$22,587	-8.70%	-4.78%
2001	3	-10.42%	-8.31%	$19,399	$20,709	-10.42%	-8.31%
2001	4	9.29%	5.83%	$21,202	$21,918	9.29%	5.83%
2001	5	-2.21%	-2.21%	$20,734	$21,434	1.47%	-2.21%
2001	6	-2.12%	-4.34%	$20,294	$20,505	-2.12%	-4.34%
2001	7	-6.74%	-4.62%	$18,927	$19,557	-6.74%	-4.62%
2001	8	-0.98%	-1.90%	$18,742	$19,185	-0.98%	-1.90%
2001	9	-15.57%	-14.83%	$15,823	$16,341	-15.57%	-14.83%
2001	10	6.59%	3.19%	$16,866	$16,861	6.59%	3.19%
2001	11	9.34%	5.95%	$18,441	$17,865	9.34%	5.95%
2001	12	7.73%	1.19%	$19,866	$18,078	7.73%	1.19%
2002	1	2.87%	-1.57%	$20,436	$17,795	2.87%	-1.57%
2002	2	2.67%	-0.85%	$20,982	$17,644	2.67%	-0.85%
2002	3	4.52%	6.63%	$21,931	$18,814	4.52%	6.63%
2002	4	0.32%	2.91%	$22,002	$19,361	0.32%	2.91%
2002	5	-0.43%	1.27%	$21,907	$19,606	-0.43%	1.27%
2002	6	-8.23%	-4.52%	$20,103	$18,719	-8.23%	-4.52%
2002	7	-9.07%	-9.07%	$18,279	$17,021	-8.50%	-9.07%
2002	8	1.42%	-1.44%	$18,539	$16,776	1.42%	-1.44%
2002	9	-10.69%	-10.69%	$16,558	$14,983	-10.69%	-10.69%
2002	10	6.55%	2.14%	$17,643	$15,304	6.55%	2.14%
2002	11	7.09%	4.32%	$18,893	$15,964	7.09%	4.32%
2002	12	-3.27%	-2.47%	$18,275	$15,569	-3.27%	-2.47%
2003	1	0.13%	-2.08%	$18,299	$15,246	0.13%	-2.08%
2003	2	-3.80%	-2.62%	$17,604	$14,847	-3.80%	-2.62%
2003	3	-2.04%	-1.41%	$17,245	$14,638	-2.04%	-1.41%
2003	4	8.75%	10.65%	$18,754	$16,196	8.75%	10.65%
2003	5	11.15%	11.15%	$20,845	$18,002	6.39%	11.15%
2003	6	3.80%	3.80%	$21,638	$18,687	5.88%	3.80%
2003	7	4.78%	4.78%	$22,672	$19,580	7.03%	4.78%
2003	8	6.36%	4.08%	$24,113	$20,379	6.36%	4.08%
2003	9	0.80%	5.41%	$24,305	$21,481	0.80%	5.41%
2003	10	5.22%	5.22%	$25,574	$22,603	9.09%	5.22%
2003	11	1.09%	2.19%	$25,852	$23,097	1.09%	2.19%
2003	12	7.78%	6.08%	$27,865	$24,501	7.78%	6.08%
2004	1	3.12%	4.21%	$28,735	$25,533	3.12%	4.21%
2004	2	3.52%	3.52%	$29,746	$26,431	4.17%	3.52%
2004	3	2.31%	2.31%	$30,434	$27,043	0.39%	2.31%
2004	4	-1.98%	-1.98%	$29,832	$26,508	-7.90%	-1.98%
2004	5	-1.15%	-1.15%	$29,487	$26,202	-0.85%	-1.15%
2004	6	3.21%	3.21%	$30,434	$27,043	-0.09%	3.21%
2004	7	-2.76%	-2.76%	$29,595	$26,298	-1.80%	-2.76%
2004	8	0.87%	0.87%	$29,853	$26,527	4.10%	0.87%
2004	9	2.38%	2.38%	$30,563	$27,158	5.62%	2.38%
2004	10	2.30%	3.03%	$31,267	$27,979	2.30%	3.03%
2004	11	10.17%	7.72%	$34,447	$30,139	10.17%	7.72%
2004	12	5.32%	7.12%	$36,280	$32,286	5.32%	7.12%
2005	1	-0.14%	0.92%	$36,231	$32,582	-0.14%	0.92%
2005	2	8.87%	4.31%	$39,443	$33,985	8.87%	4.31%
2005	3	-6.70%	-2.21%	$36,799	$33,234	-6.70%	-2.21%
2005	4	-2.02%	-2.02%	$36,055	$32,562	-2.89%	-2.02%
2005	5	0.36%	0.36%	$36,186	$32,681	3.39%	0.36%
2005	6	3.28%	2.72%	$37,373	$33,570	3.28%	2.72%
2005	7	6.87%	4.53%	$39,938	$35,092	6.87%	4.53%
2005	8	0.97%	2.03%	$40,326	$35,803	0.97%	2.03%
2005	9	8.64%	3.53%	$43,811	$37,067	8.64%	3.53%
2005	10	-6.57%	-4.10%	$40,931	$35,546	-6.57%	-4.10%
2005	11	7.98%	2.67%	$44,198	$36,494	7.98%	2.67%
2005	12	6.16%	6.60%	$46,922	$38,903	6.16%	6.60%
2006	1	11.48%	7.37%	$52,310	$41,768	11.48%	7.37%
2006	2	-1.46%	0.62%	$51,548	$42,029	-1.46%	0.62%
2006	3	1.24%	5.27%	$52,187	$44,243	1.24%	5.27%
2006	4	7.12%	5.50%	$55,903	$46,674	7.12%	5.50%
2006	5	-10.74%	-4.93%	$49,899	$44,373	-10.74%	-4.93%
2006	6	-2.15%	-2.15%	$48,825	$43,418	-0.20%	-2.15%
2006	7	-0.50%	-0.50%	$48,581	$43,201	1.19%	-0.50%
2006	8	2.36%	2.36%	$49,728	$44,221	2.05%	2.36%
2006	9	0.72%	1.82%	$50,085	$45,025	0.72%	1.82%
2006	10	3.66%	3.66%	$51,920	$46,674	4.75%	3.66%
2006	11	4.51%	4.51%	$54,263	$48,780	7.44%	4.51%
2006	12	4.16%	3.95%	$56,519	$50,708	4.16%	3.95%
2007	1	-0.58%	2.94%	$56,193	$52,198	-0.58%	2.94%
2007	2	0.32%	0.32%	$56,374	$52,366	-1.28%	0.32%
2007	3	3.21%	3.21%	$58,185	$54,048	4.11%	3.21%
2007	4	3.87%	3.87%	$60,436	$56,139	4.23%	3.87%
2007	5	2.44%	2.44%	$61,911	$57,509	5.96%	2.44%
2007	6	4.49%	-1.13%	$64,691	$56,860	4.49%	-1.13%
2007	7	4.30%	-0.46%	$67,471	$56,595	4.30%	-0.46%
2007	8	-0.94%	-2.97%	$66,838	$54,913	-0.94%	-2.97%
2007	9	10.75%	2.01%	$74,026	$56,019	10.75%	2.01%
2007	10	12.31%	5.96%	$83,135	$59,359	12.31%	5.96%
2007	11	-7.99%	-8.06%	$76,490	$54,577	-7.99%	-8.06%
2007	12	-0.38%	-2.30%	$76,199	$53,320	-0.38%	-2.30%
2008	1	-11.08%	-9.13%	$67,756	$48,452	-11.08%	-9.13%
2008	2	4.65%	2.26%	$70,908	$49,546	4.65%	2.26%
2008	3	-3.80%	-1.34%	$68,216	$48,884	-3.80%	-1.34%
2008	4	8.09%	2.24%	$73,737	$49,979	8.09%	2.24%
2008	5	1.84%	2.07%	$75,095	$51,016	1.84%	2.07%
2008	6	-10.39%	-7.91%	$67,295	$46,983	-10.39%	-7.91%
2008	7	-4.14%	-5.82%	$64,512	$44,246	-4.14%	-5.82%
2008	8	-7.81%	-3.39%	$59,473	$42,748	-7.81%	-3.39%
2008	9	-16.25%	-15.43%	$49,810	$36,152	-16.25%	-15.43%
2008	10	-24.14%	-24.14%	$37,784	$27,423	-27.67%	-24.14%
2008	11	-4.94%	-4.94%	$35,919	$26,069	-7.85%	-4.94%
2008	12	9.18%	9.18%	$39,216	$28,463	8.30%	9.18%
2009	1	-9.15%	-9.15%	$35,629	$25,859	-8.19%	-9.15%
2009	2	-7.18%	-7.18%	$33,072	$24,003	-6.07%	-7.18%
2009	3	7.98%	7.98%	$35,711	$25,919	16.03%	7.98%
2009	4	16.03%	13.97%	$41,436	$29,540	16.03%	13.97%
2009	5	18.27%	13.98%	$49,004	$33,670	18.27%	13.98%
2009	6	-2.25%	1.96%	$47,902	$34,329	-2.25%	1.96%
2009	7	11.55%	7.41%	$53,435	$36,873	11.55%	7.41%
2009	8	-0.63%	5.19%	$53,100	$38,788	-0.63%	5.19%
2009	9	9.29%	6.33%	$58,034	$41,243	9.29%	6.33%
2009	10	-1.36%	-1.67%	$57,243	$40,554	-1.36%	-1.67%
2009	11	5.90%	1.70%	$60,620	$41,243	5.90%	1.70%
2009	12	3.60%	1.53%	$62,801	$41,875	3.60%	1.53%
2010	1	-6.25%	-1.96%	$58,873	$41,055	-6.25%	-1.96%
2010	2	1.07%	-0.89%	$59,504	$40,691	1.07%	-0.89%
2010	3	8.15%	7.16%	$64,353	$43,606	8.15%	7.16%
2010	4	0.26%	1.04%	$64,523	$44,061	0.26%	1.04%
2010	5	-9.32%	-11.51%	$58,509	$38,990	-9.32%	-11.51%
2010	6	-0.04%	-0.16%	$58,485	$38,929	-0.04%	-0.16%
2010	7	9.25%	9.52%	$63,892	$42,634	9.25%	9.52%
2010	8	-2.24%	-2.64%	$62,462	$41,510	-2.24%	-2.64%
2010	9	11.18%	11.56%	$69,445	$46,308	11.18%	11.56%
2010	10	2.97%	3.67%	$71,506	$48,009	2.97%	3.67%
2010	11	-2.71%	-3.16%	$69,566	$46,491	-2.71%	-3.16%
2010	12	7.30%	10.38%	$74,646	$51,317	7.30%	10.38%
2011	1	0.72%	0.72%	$75,183	$51,686	-2.77%	0.72%
2011	2	1.25%	1.25%	$76,123	$52,333	-0.85%	1.25%
2011	3	0.47%	0.47%	$76,481	$52,579	5.57%	0.47%
2011	4	4.92%	4.92%	$80,243	$55,165	3.47%	4.92%
2011	5	-2.46%	-2.46%	$78,273	$53,810	-2.82%	-2.46%
2011	6	-2.80%	-2.80%	$76,078	$52,302	-1.51%	-2.80%
2011	7	-1.59%	-1.59%	$74,869	$51,471	-0.82%	-1.59%
2011	8	-8.54%	-9.69%	$68,476	$46,484	-8.54%	-9.69%
2011	9	-16.19%	-11.79%	$57,392	$41,004	-16.19%	-11.79%
2011	10	8.18%	8.18%	$62,089	$44,360	13.51%	8.18%
2011	11	-3.41%	-3.96%	$59,972	$42,605	-3.41%	-3.96%
2011	12	-3.32%	-3.32%	$57,980	$41,188	-3.32%	-3.32%
2012	1	11.12%	8.81%	$64,425	$44,819	11.12%	8.81%
2012	2	5.56%	5.59%	$68,008	$47,325	5.56%	5.59%
2012	3	-2.86%	0.41%	$66,060	$47,518	-2.86%	0.41%
2012	4	-1.75%	-0.68%	$64,906	$47,196	-1.75%	-0.68%
2012	5	-11.78%	-11.78%	$57,262	$41,638	-11.08%	-11.78%
2012	6	3.86%	3.86%	$59,471	$43,245	4.83%	3.86%
2012	7	0.64%	-0.22%	$59,849	$43,148	0.64%	-0.22%
2012	8	0.43%	2.90%	$60,109	$44,401	0.43%	2.90%
2012	9	3.69%	3.69%	$62,327	$46,040	5.32%	3.69%
2012	10	-0.42%	1.19%	$62,068	$46,586	-0.42%	1.19%
2012	11	0.62%	0.62%	$62,454	$46,875	1.33%	0.62%
2012	12	3.62%	3.62%	$64,714	$48,572	5.84%	3.62%
2013	1	0.61%	4.96%	$65,107	$50,982	0.61%	4.96%
2013	2	0.19%	0.19%	$65,233	$51,081	-1.74%	0.19%
2013	3	1.29%	1.29%	$66,077	$51,742	-1.54%	1.29%
2013	4	3.70%	3.70%	$68,522	$53,657	1.32%	3.70%
2013	5	-0.49%	-0.49%	$68,185	$53,393	-3.73%	-0.49%
2013	6	-2.16%	-2.16%	$66,709	$52,237	-6.14%	-2.16%
2013	7	5.50%	5.50%	$70,378	$55,110	0.97%	5.50%
2013	8	-0.66%	-0.66%	$69,914	$54,746	-3.18%	-0.66%
2013	9	7.30%	7.30%	$75,016	$58,742	7.15%	7.30%
2013	10	3.99%	3.99%	$78,010	$61,086	4.65%	3.99%
2013	11	0.81%	0.81%	$78,643	$61,581	-2.02%	0.81%
2013	12	2.72%	2.72%	$80,783	$63,258	-0.96%	2.72%
2014	1	-2.23%	-2.23%	$78,985	$61,850	-7.27%	-2.23%
2014	2	5.94%	5.94%	$83,678	$65,524	3.42%	5.94%
2014	3	0.73%	0.73%	$84,292	$66,005	3.86%	0.73%
2014	4	-0.62%	-0.62%	$83,765	$65,593	0.51%	-0.62%
2014	5	1.94%	1.94%	$85,388	$66,864	3.72%	1.94%
2014	6	1.13%	1.13%	$86,353	$67,619	3.00%	1.13%
2014	7	-2.08%	-2.08%	$84,555	$66,211	1.46%	-2.08%
2014	8	3.57%	0.62%	$87,572	$66,623	3.57%	0.62%
2014	9	-7.16%	-4.43%	$81,303	$63,670	-7.16%	-4.43%
2014	10	2.31%	-1.51%	$83,181	$62,708	2.31%	-1.51%
2014	11	-1.00%	-1.42%	$82,350	$61,815	-1.00%	-1.42%
2014	12	-4.97%	-0.61%	$78,253	$61,438	-4.97%	-0.61%
2015	1	0.67%	-0.12%	$78,779	$61,364	0.67%	-0.12%
2015	2	3.53%	6.81%	$81,560	$65,542	3.53%	6.81%
2015	3	0.57%	0.57%	$82,024	$65,915	-2.08%	0.57%
2015	4	3.45%	3.45%	$84,856	$68,190	7.79%	3.45%
2015	5	0.88%	0.88%	$85,599	$68,787	-3.38%	0.88%
2015	6	-1.14%	-1.14%	$84,624	$68,004	-2.39%	-1.14%
2015	7	1.15%	1.15%	$85,599	$68,787	-6.81%	1.15%
2015	8	-4.99%	-4.99%	$81,328	$65,355	-9.32%	-4.99%
2015	9	-3.08%	-3.08%	$78,821	$63,341	-3.25%	-3.08%
2015	10	4.59%	4.59%	$82,442	$66,251	5.57%	4.59%
2015	11	0.11%	0.11%	$82,535	$66,325	-3.25%	0.11%
2015	12	0.60%	0.60%	$83,030	$66,723	-2.45%	0.60%
2016	1	-6.67%	-6.67%	$77,495	$62,275	-6.05%	-6.67%
2016	2	-2.40%	-2.40%	$75,633	$60,779	-0.87%	-2.40%
2016	3	7.58%	7.58%	$81,365	$65,385	13.04%	7.58%
2016	4	0.66%	0.66%	$81,904	$65,818	0.78%	0.66%
2016	5	1.44%	1.44%	$83,079	$66,763	-3.40%	1.44%
2016	6	-5.54%	-5.54%	$78,475	$63,062	5.04%	-5.54%
2016	7	4.67%	5.62%	$82,143	$66,605	4.67%	5.62%
2016	8	1.67%	-0.18%	$83,518	$66,487	1.67%	-0.18%
2016	9	1.27%	2.84%	$84,579	$68,377	1.27%	2.84%
2016	10	0.63%	-3.17%	$85,114	$66,212	0.63%	-3.17%
2016	11	-4.36%	-2.50%	$81,403	$64,558	-4.36%	-2.50%
2016	12	-0.16%	1.53%	$81,272	$65,545	-0.16%	1.53%
2017	1	4.94%	4.41%	$85,286	$68,435	4.94%	4.41%
2017	2	3.28%	1.82%	$88,081	$69,679	3.28%	1.82%
2017	3	2.25%	3.74%	$90,065	$72,288	2.25%	3.74%
2017	4	1.39%	5.39%	$91,321	$76,182	1.39%	5.39%
2017	5	4.27%	4.27%	$95,218	$79,433	1.22%	4.27%
2017	6	0.51%	0.51%	$95,699	$79,834	0.78%	0.51%
2017	7	3.47%	3.47%	$99,019	$82,604	5.35%	3.47%
2017	8	0.39%	0.39%	$99,404	$82,925	3.05%	0.39%
2017	9	3.97%	3.97%	$103,350	$86,216	-0.78%	3.97%
2017	10	1.82%	1.82%	$105,226	$87,782	2.44%	1.82%
2017	11	0.46%	0.46%	$105,707	$88,183	0.21%	0.46%
2017	12	3.14%	3.14%	$109,031	$90,955	3.49%	3.14%
2018	1	5.12%	5.12%	$114,613	$95,612	8.39%	5.12%
2018	2	-4.73%	-4.02%	$109,195	$91,767	-4.73%	-4.02%
2018	3	-0.33%	-0.33%	$108,839	$91,468	-1.22%	-0.33%
2018	4	0.28%	0.28%	$109,144	$91,724	-2.03%	0.28%
2018	5	-0.84%	-0.84%	$108,229	$90,955	-2.86%	-0.84%
2018	6	-2.16%	-2.16%	$105,890	$88,990	-4.50%	-2.16%
2018	7	0.10%	0.10%	$105,992	$89,076	3.18%	0.10%
2018	8	-1.77%	-1.77%	$104,111	$87,495	-3.55%	-1.77%
2018	9	-1.17%	-1.17%	$102,891	$86,470	-1.31%	-1.17%
2018	10	-11.76%	-11.76%	$90,792	$76,302	-7.58%	-11.76%
2018	11	4.45%	-0.39%	$94,837	$76,003	4.45%	-0.39%
2018	12	-2.97%	-7.88%	$92,020	$70,015	-2.97%	-7.88%

Portfolio return and risk metrics
Metric	Timing Portfolio	Vanguard International Explorer Inv
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)	1.07%	0.93%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)	13.59%	11.70%
Geometric Mean (monthly)	0.88%	0.78%
Geometric Mean (annualized)	11.15%	9.71%
Volatility (monthly)	6.02%	5.46%
Volatility (annualized)	20.84%	18.91%
Downside Deviation (monthly)	3.97%	3.67%
Max. Drawdown	-60.22%	-59.56%
US Market Correlation	0.75	0.77
Beta^(*)	1.03	1.00
Alpha (annualized)	1.31%	-0.00%
R²	88.09%	100.00%
Sharpe Ratio	0.52	0.49
Sortino Ratio	0.78	0.71
Treynor Ratio (%)	10.52	9.19
Calmar Ratio	0.17	0.06
Active Return	1.44%	N/A
Tracking Error	7.22%	N/A
Information Ratio	0.20	N/A
Skewness	-0.47	-0.60
Excess Kurtosis	1.39	2.03
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)	-10.40%	-9.14%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)	-8.83%	-8.05%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)	-13.57%	-12.91%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)	105.55	100.00
Downside Capture Ratio (%)	100.51	100.00
Safe Withdrawal Rate	15.43%	13.08%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate	8.11%	6.91%
Positive Periods	157 out of 252 (62.30%)	153 out of 252 (60.71%)
Gain/Loss Ratio	0.97	1.01
^* Vanguard International Explorer Inv is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress Period	Start	End	Timing Portfolio	Vanguard International Explorer Inv
Russian Debt Default	Jul 1998	Oct 1998	-17.36%	-17.36%
Dotcom Crash	Mar 2000	Oct 2002	-49.63%	-52.31%
Subprime Crisis	Nov 2007	Mar 2009	-60.22%	-59.56%

Drawdowns for Timing Portfolio

Drawdowns for Timing Portfolio (worst 10)
Rank	Start	End	Length	Recovery By	Recovery Time	Underwater Period	Drawdown
1	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	1 year 4 months	Feb 2014	5 years	6 years 4 months	-60.22%
2	Mar 2000	Sep 2001	1 year 7 months	Nov 2004	3 years 2 months	4 years 9 months	-49.63%
3	Feb 2018	Oct 2018	9 months				-20.78%
4	Aug 1998	Sep 1998	2 months	Mar 1999	6 months	8 months	-17.36%
5	Sep 2014	Feb 2016	1 year 6 months	Feb 2017	1 year	2 years 6 months	-13.63%
6	May 2006	Jul 2006	3 months	Dec 2006	5 months	8 months	-13.10%
7	Mar 2005	Apr 2005	2 months	Jul 2005	3 months	5 months	-8.59%
8	Oct 2005	Oct 2005	1 month	Nov 2005	1 month	2 months	-6.57%
9	Jul 2014	Jul 2014	1 month	Aug 2014	1 month	2 months	-2.08%
10	Feb 2006	Feb 2006	1 month	Apr 2006	2 months	3 months	-1.46%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Vanguard International Explorer Inv

Drawdowns for Vanguard International Explorer Inv (worst 10)
Rank	Start	End	Length	Recovery By	Recovery Time	Underwater Period	Drawdown
1	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	1 year 4 months	Oct 2013	4 years 8 months	6 years	-59.56%
2	Mar 2000	Mar 2003	3 years 1 month	Dec 2004	1 year 9 months	4 years 10 months	-53.41%
3	Feb 2018	Dec 2018	11 months				-26.77%
4	Aug 1998	Sep 1998	2 months	Mar 1999	6 months	8 months	-17.36%
5	Aug 2015	Feb 2016	7 months	Feb 2017	1 year	1 year 7 months	-11.64%
6	Jul 2014	Jan 2015	7 months	Apr 2015	3 months	10 months	-9.25%
7	May 2006	Jul 2006	3 months	Oct 2006	3 months	6 months	-7.44%
8	Jun 2007	Aug 2007	3 months	Oct 2007	2 months	5 months	-4.51%
9	Mar 2005	Apr 2005	2 months	Jul 2005	3 months	5 months	-4.19%
10	Oct 2005	Oct 2005	1 month	Dec 2005	2 months	3 months	-4.10%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Rolling returns summary
Roll Period	Timing Portfolio			Vanguard International Explorer Inv
Roll Period	Average	High	Low	Average	High	Low
1 year	15.33%	90.29%	-48.53%	13.98%	90.29%	-46.62%
3 years	11.03%	36.93%	-8.65%	9.82%	35.70%	-13.40%
5 years	10.50%	33.05%	-3.21%	9.13%	27.92%	-4.07%
7 years	10.78%	20.67%	0.38%	9.37%	18.23%	2.05%
10 years	10.26%	22.52%	3.65%	8.41%	18.22%	2.60%
15 years	10.61%	13.26%	8.21%	9.27%	12.49%	6.48%
Result statistics are based on annualized rolling returns over full calendar year periods

Timing periods and related holdings for the timing portfolio
#	Start	End	Months	Assets	Asset Performance	Timing Portfolio	Vanguard International Explorer Inv
1	Jan 1998	Jan 2001	37	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: 137.21%	137.21%	137.21%
2	Feb 2001	Apr 2001	3	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: -10.62%	-10.62%	-7.60%
3	May 2001	May 2001	1	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: -2.21%	-2.21%	-2.21%
4	Jun 2001	Jun 2002	13	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: -3.04%	-3.04%	-12.67%
5	Jul 2002	Jul 2002	1	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: -9.07%	-9.07%	-9.07%
6	Aug 2002	Apr 2003	9	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: 2.60%	2.60%	-4.84%
7	May 2003	Jul 2003	3	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: 20.89%	20.89%	20.89%
8	Aug 2003	Sep 2003	2	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: 7.20%	7.20%	9.71%
9	Oct 2003	Oct 2003	1	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: 5.22%	5.22%	5.22%
10	Nov 2003	Jan 2004	3	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: 12.36%	12.36%	12.96%
11	Feb 2004	Sep 2004	8	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: 6.36%	6.36%	6.36%
12	Oct 2004	Mar 2005	6	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: 20.40%	20.40%	22.38%
13	Apr 2005	May 2005	2	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: -1.66%	-1.66%	-1.66%
14	Jun 2005	May 2006	12	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: 37.89%	37.89%	35.78%
15	Jun 2006	Aug 2006	3	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: -0.34%	-0.34%	-0.34%
16	Sep 2006	Sep 2006	1	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: 0.72%	0.72%	1.82%
17	Oct 2006	Nov 2006	2	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: 8.34%	8.34%	8.34%
18	Dec 2006	Jan 2007	2	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: 3.56%	3.56%	7.01%
19	Feb 2007	May 2007	4	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: 10.17%	10.17%	10.17%
20	Jun 2007	Sep 2008	16	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: -19.54%	-19.54%	-37.14%
21	Oct 2008	Mar 2009	6	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: -28.31%	-28.31%	-28.31%
22	Apr 2009	Dec 2010	21	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: 109.03%	109.03%	97.99%
23	Jan 2011	Jul 2011	7	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: 0.30%	0.30%	0.30%
24	Aug 2011	Sep 2011	2	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: -23.34%	-23.34%	-20.33%
25	Oct 2011	Oct 2011	1	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: 8.18%	8.18%	8.18%
26	Nov 2011	Apr 2012	6	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: 4.54%	4.54%	6.40%
27	May 2012	Jun 2012	2	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: -8.37%	-8.37%	-8.37%
28	Jul 2012	Aug 2012	2	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: 1.07%	1.07%	2.67%
29	Sep 2012	Sep 2012	1	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: 3.69%	3.69%	3.69%
30	Oct 2012	Oct 2012	1	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: -0.42%	-0.42%	1.19%
31	Nov 2012	Dec 2012	2	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: 4.26%	4.26%	4.26%
32	Jan 2013	Jan 2013	1	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: 0.61%	0.61%	4.96%
33	Feb 2013	Jul 2014	18	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: 29.87%	29.87%	29.87%
34	Aug 2014	Feb 2015	7	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: -3.54%	-3.54%	-1.01%
35	Mar 2015	Jun 2016	16	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: -3.78%	-3.78%	-3.78%
36	Jul 2016	Apr 2017	10	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: 16.37%	16.37%	20.80%
37	May 2017	Jan 2018	9	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: 25.51%	25.51%	25.51%
38	Feb 2018	Feb 2018	1	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: -4.73%	-4.73%	-4.02%
39	Mar 2018	Oct 2018	8	100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)	VINEX: -16.85%	-16.85%	-16.85%
40	Nov 2018	Dec 2018	2	100.00% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv (VEIEX)	VEIEX: 1.35%	1.35%	-8.24%
41	Jan 2019	Jan 2019	1	Please sign-in for forward signals	-	-	-