Test Tactical Allocation Models

Model Configuration

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Model Simulation Results (Jan 1997 - Dec 2018) Save

Tactical asset allocation model results from Jan 1997 to Dec 2018 are based on dual momentum model holding the best performing asset. Absolute momentum based trend following filter is used to switch any selected assets that have a negative excess return over the risk free rate to Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX). The model uses a single performance window of 1 calendar month(s). Tactical asset allocation model trades are executed using the end of month close price each month based on the end of month signals. The time period was constrained by the available data for Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX) [Dec 1996 - Aug 2023].

Performance Summary

Performance statistics for the timing portfolio and benchmark portfolios
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioMarket Correlation
Dual Momentum Model$10,000$378,07117.95%14.45%63.91%-11.71%-23.67% 1.081.870.44
Equal Weight Portfolio$10,000$57,6788.29%15.51%52.57%-41.80%-55.28% 0.460.640.92
Vanguard 500 Index Investor$10,000$50,0747.60%14.96%33.19%-37.02%-50.97% 0.430.610.99

Portfolio Growth

   

Annual Returns

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
NameTotal ReturnAnnualized ReturnAnnualized Standard Deviation
3 MonthYear To Date1 year3 year5 year10 yearFull3 year5 year
Dual Momentum Model-13.76%-2.52%-2.52%5.35%6.12%14.28%17.95%12.25%11.68%
Equal Weight Portfolio-16.30%-14.16%-14.16%5.41%5.24%11.30%8.29%11.73%10.97%
Vanguard 500 Index Investor-13.55%-4.52%-4.52%9.11%8.34%12.97%7.60%10.96%10.95%
Trailing return and volatility are as of last calendar month ending December 2018
Notes and Disclosures
  • IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by Portfolio Visualizer regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
  • Asset allocation and diversification strategies do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
  • Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, commissions, or actual taxes due on investment returns.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • Refer to the related documentation sections for more details on terms and definitions, methodology, and data sources.
  • The simulated performance results are created by retroactively applying the specified investment strategy to historical data. Future results may vary.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • Compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) is the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio. It is calculated from the portfolio start and end balance and is thus impacted by any cashflows.
  • The time-weighted rate of return (TWRR) is a measure of the compound rate of growth in a portfolio. This is calculated from the holding period returns (e.g. monthly returns), and TWRR will thus not be impacted by cashflows. If there are no external cashflows, TWRR will equal CAGR.
  • The money-weighted rate of return (MWRR) is the internal rate of return (IRR) taking into account cashflows. This is the discount rate at which the present value of cash inflows equals the present value of cash outflows.
  • Total return is the combined return in income and capital appreciation from investment in an asset. Yield measures the current cash income received from investment in an asset. Bonds provide yield in the form of interest payments and stocks through dividends.
  • Standard deviation (Stdev) is used to measure the dispersion of returns around the mean and is often used as a measure of risk. A higher standard deviation implies greater the dispersion of data points around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio, and it is calculated by dividing the mean monthly excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the standard deviation of excess return, and the displayed value is annualized.
  • Sortino Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted return which is a modification of the Sharpe Ratio. While the latter is the ratio of average returns in excess of a risk-free rate divided by the standard deviation of those excess returns, the Sortino Ratio has the same denominator divided by the standard deviation of returns below the risk-free rate.
  • Treynor Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is similar to the Sharpe Ratio, but it uses portfolio beta (systematic risk) as the risk metric in the denominator.
  • Calmar Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is calculated as the annualized return over the past 36 months divided by the maximum drawdown over the past 36 months based on monthly returns.
  • Risk-free returns are calculated based on the Federal Reserve 3-Month Treasury Bill (secondary market) rates.
  • Downside deviation measures the downside volatility of the portfolio returns unlike standard deviation, which includes both upside and downside deviations. Downside deviation is calculated based on negative returns that hurt the portfolio performance.
  • Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution or returns from a normal Gaussian distribution shape about its mean. Negative skewness is associated with the left (typically negative returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the right tail; and positive skewness is associated with the right (typically positive returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the left tail.
  • Excess kurtosis is a measure of whether a data distribution is peaked or flat relative to a normal distribution. Distributions with high kurtosis tend to have a distinct peak near the mean, decline rather rapidly, and have heavy or fat tails.
  • A drawdown refers to the decline in value of a single investment or an investment portfolio from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown (Max Drawdown) is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. Drawdown values are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Value at Risk (VaR) measures the scale of loss at a given confidence level. For example, if the 95% confidence one-month VaR is 3%, there is 95% confidence that over the next month the portfolio will not lose more than 3%. Value at Risk can be calculated directly based on historical returns based on a given percentile or analytically based on the mean and standard deviation of the returns.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measures the scale of the expected loss once the specific Value at Risk (VaR) breakpoint has been breached, i.e., it calculates the average tail loss by taking a weighted average between the value at risk and losses exceeding the value at risk.
  • Beta is a measure of systematic risk and measures the volatility of a particular investment relative to the market or its benchmark. Alpha measures the active return of the investment compared to the market benchmark return. R-squared is the percentage of a portfolio's movements that can be explained by movements in the selected benchmark index.
  • Active return is the investment return minus the return of its benchmark. For periods longer than 12 months this is displayed as annualized value, i.e., annualized investment return minus annualized benchmark return.
  • Tracking error, also known as active risk, is the standard deviation of active return. This is displayed as annualized value based on the standard deviation of monthly active returns.
  • Information ratio is the active return divided by the tracking error. It measures whether the investment outperformed its benchmark consistently.
  • Gain/Loss ratio is a measure of downside risk, and it is calculated as the average positive return in up periods divided by the average negative return in down periods.
  • Upside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was up, and Downside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was down. An upside capture ratio greater than 100 would indicate that the fund outperformed its benchmark when the market was up, and a downside capture ratio below 100 would indicate that the fund lost less than its benchmark when the market was down. To calculate upside capture ratio a new series from the portfolio returns is constructed by dropping all time periods where the benchmark return is less than equal to zero. The up capture is then the quotient of the annualized return of the resulting manager series, divided by the annualized return of the resulting benchmark series. The downside capture ratio is calculated analogously.
  • All risk measures for the portfolio and portfolio assets are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • The selected portfolio allocation for comparison assumes monthly rebalancing.
  • An equal-weight allocation is used for the assets held by the momentum model.
  • The results for the tactical asset allocation model assume monthly rebalancing trades.
  • The relative strength signal is based on total return including dividends.

Active Returns Chart

Annualized Active Return

Rolling Active Return

Up vs. Down Market Performance

Up vs. Down Market Performance - Model vs. Vanguard 500 Index Investor
Market TypeOccurrencesAverage Active Return
Above BenchmarkBelow BenchmarkTotal% Above BenchmarkAbove BenchmarkBelow BenchmarkTotal
Up Market1125917165%1.15%-4.00%-0.63%
Down Market69249374%4.73%-0.70%3.33%
Total1818326469%2.51%-3.04%0.76%

Active Return Confidence

Annual Returns

Annual returns for the timing portfolio and various benchmark portfolios
YearInflationDual Momentum ModelEqual Weight PortfolioVanguard 500 Index InvestorVanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)
ReturnBalanceReturnBalanceReturnBalance
19971.70%16.03%$11,6037.55%$10,75533.19%$13,31933.19%-14.13%13.90%
19981.61%33.56%$15,49727.76%$13,74128.62%$17,13128.62%25.98%13.05%
19992.68%41.56%$21,93852.57%$20,96421.07%$20,74021.07%90.29%-8.66%
20003.39%25.42%$27,516-4.75%$19,969-9.06%$18,861-9.06%-2.68%19.72%
20011.55%5.26%$28,962-17.29%$16,516-12.02%$16,594-12.02%-22.52%4.31%
20022.38%-11.71%$25,570-17.95%$13,552-22.15%$12,919-22.15%-13.88%16.67%
20031.88%63.91%$41,91142.39%$19,29728.50%$16,60128.50%57.37%2.68%
20043.26%34.19%$56,24020.89%$23,32810.74%$18,38410.74%31.77%7.12%
20053.42%16.22%$65,35912.49%$26,2434.77%$19,2624.77%20.49%6.61%
20062.54%37.76%$90,04222.89%$32,25015.64%$22,27515.64%30.34%1.74%
20074.08%8.61%$97,7985.38%$33,9845.39%$23,4755.39%5.15%9.24%
20080.09%1.77%$99,524-41.80%$19,780-37.02%$14,784-37.02%-46.62%22.52%
20092.72%45.68%$144,99236.62%$27,02326.49%$18,70026.49%47.12%-12.05%
20101.50%-5.35%$137,23218.82%$32,10714.91%$21,48914.91%22.55%8.93%
20112.96%29.64%$177,907-9.42%$29,0841.97%$21,9111.97%-19.74%29.28%
20121.74%32.54%$235,79617.00%$34,02715.82%$25,37915.82%17.93%3.47%
20131.50%19.16%$280,96731.28%$44,66932.18%$33,54432.18%30.24%-13.03%
20140.76%10.98%$311,8215.08%$46,93613.51%$38,07613.51%-2.88%25.28%
20150.73%3.69%$323,3214.91%$49,2431.25%$38,5511.25%8.60%-1.54%
20162.07%-7.42%$299,3334.93%$51,67111.82%$43,10711.82%-1.77%1.20%
20172.11%29.57%$387,85530.04%$67,19521.67%$52,44721.67%38.77%8.58%
20181.91%-2.52%$378,071-14.16%$57,678-4.52%$50,074-4.52%-23.02%-1.90%

Monthly Returns

Monthly returns for the timing portfolio and various benchmark portfolios
YearMonthDual Momentum ModelEqual Weight PortfolioVanguard 500 Index InvestorVanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)
ReturnBalanceReturnBalanceReturnBalance
19971-0.65%$9,9351.14%$10,1146.22%$10,6226.22%-3.94%-0.65%
199720.79%$10,0131.18%$10,2340.79%$10,7060.79%1.58%-0.11%
19973-0.41%$9,972-2.27%$10,001-4.14%$10,263-4.14%-0.41%-2.29%
199742.35%$10,2061.52%$10,1535.96%$10,8745.96%-2.91%2.35%
199756.09%$10,8276.47%$10,8106.09%$11,5366.09%6.84%0.98%
199762.90%$11,1413.68%$11,2074.45%$12,0504.45%2.90%1.78%
199777.97%$12,0292.33%$11,4697.97%$13,0107.97%-3.31%5.34%
19978-5.61%$11,354-5.17%$10,876-5.61%$12,280-5.61%-4.73%-2.57%
199792.63%$11,6533.21%$11,2255.47%$12,9515.47%0.95%2.63%
199710-3.35%$11,263-3.45%$10,837-3.35%$12,518-3.35%-3.56%2.99%
1997111.27%$11,406-0.25%$10,8104.60%$13,0934.60%-5.10%1.27%
1997121.72%$11,603-0.51%$10,7551.72%$13,3191.72%-2.74%1.66%
199811.11%$11,7324.43%$11,2321.11%$13,4671.11%7.75%1.91%
199825.57%$12,3856.38%$11,9487.19%$14,4357.19%5.57%-0.75%
199835.10%$13,0175.41%$12,5955.10%$15,1725.10%5.71%0.14%
199845.09%$13,6803.05%$12,9791.01%$15,3251.01%5.09%0.40%
199855.04%$14,3701.65%$13,193-1.74%$15,058-1.74%5.04%1.83%
19986-0.38%$14,3161.85%$13,4374.07%$15,6714.07%-0.38%2.35%
19987-1.05%$14,1650.65%$13,525-1.05%$15,506-1.05%2.36%-0.51%
19988-12.74%$12,360-13.61%$11,684-14.47%$13,262-14.47%-12.74%4.83%
199893.29%$12,7660.56%$11,7506.41%$14,1126.41%-5.29%3.29%
1998108.16%$13,8096.32%$12,4928.16%$15,2648.16%4.47%-1.69%
1998116.07%$14,6474.75%$13,0856.07%$16,1916.07%3.42%0.88%
1998125.81%$15,4975.01%$13,7415.81%$17,1315.81%4.22%-0.16%
199914.20%$16,1493.01%$14,1554.20%$17,8514.20%1.82%0.98%
19992-3.12%$15,6440.97%$14,292-3.12%$17,293-3.12%5.06%-4.76%
199935.22%$16,4604.61%$14,9504.00%$17,9844.00%5.22%-0.34%
199948.29%$17,8256.07%$15,8583.85%$18,6773.85%8.29%0.19%
19995-0.88%$17,668-1.63%$15,599-2.39%$18,231-2.39%-0.88%-1.68%
19996-1.05%$17,4828.99%$17,0025.56%$19,2435.56%12.43%-1.05%
199979.00%$19,0562.94%$17,501-3.13%$18,641-3.13%9.00%-0.58%
199983.19%$19,6641.35%$17,737-0.50%$18,549-0.50%3.19%-0.49%
19999-1.40%$19,388-2.07%$17,369-2.74%$18,041-2.74%-1.40%0.91%
1999100.12%$19,4114.09%$18,0806.33%$19,1826.33%1.85%0.12%
1999112.02%$19,8046.99%$19,3442.02%$19,5702.02%11.96%-0.59%
19991210.78%$21,9388.38%$20,9645.98%$20,7405.98%10.78%-1.60%
2000111.64%$24,4923.30%$21,657-5.03%$19,696-5.03%11.64%1.25%
2000217.38%$28,7487.74%$23,332-1.91%$19,321-1.91%17.38%2.96%
20003-3.93%$27,6182.91%$24,0119.75%$21,2059.75%-3.93%3.14%
20004-3.00%$26,790-7.23%$22,274-3.00%$20,569-3.00%-11.47%-0.66%
20005-0.46%$26,667-4.36%$21,303-2.04%$20,150-2.04%-6.68%-0.46%
200062.30%$27,2804.24%$22,2072.49%$20,6522.49%5.99%2.30%
20007-2.65%$26,556-2.08%$21,746-1.50%$20,343-1.50%-2.65%1.49%
200082.08%$27,1084.84%$22,8006.19%$21,6026.19%3.50%2.08%
20009-5.29%$25,674-3.99%$21,890-5.29%$20,459-5.29%-2.69%-0.85%
2000101.57%$26,076-4.60%$20,883-0.43%$20,372-0.43%-8.77%1.57%
2000112.99%$26,857-6.10%$19,608-7.89%$18,765-7.89%-4.32%2.99%
2000122.45%$27,5161.84%$19,9690.51%$18,8610.51%3.16%2.45%
200111.67%$27,9762.61%$20,4903.55%$19,5303.55%1.67%0.28%
20012-9.14%$25,420-6.96%$19,064-9.14%$17,746-9.14%-4.78%1.80%
20013-0.60%$25,266-7.33%$17,665-6.36%$16,618-6.36%-8.31%-0.60%
20014-2.56%$24,6186.80%$18,8677.77%$17,9097.77%5.83%-2.56%
200150.65%$24,778-0.78%$18,7200.65%$18,0250.65%-2.21%0.21%
20016-2.45%$24,172-3.39%$18,086-2.45%$17,584-2.45%-4.34%0.76%
200173.61%$25,046-2.81%$17,577-1.00%$17,409-1.00%-4.62%3.61%
200182.02%$25,553-4.09%$16,859-6.27%$16,316-6.27%-1.90%2.02%
200190.88%$25,778-11.46%$14,927-8.09%$14,996-8.09%-14.83%0.88%
2001105.12%$27,0982.54%$15,3061.90%$15,2801.90%3.19%5.12%
2001115.95%$28,7116.80%$16,3477.65%$16,4507.65%5.95%-4.98%
2001120.87%$28,9621.03%$16,5160.87%$16,5940.87%1.19%-1.91%
20021-1.57%$28,509-1.52%$16,265-1.47%$16,349-1.47%-1.57%1.20%
200221.24%$28,863-1.39%$16,039-1.94%$16,033-1.94%-0.85%1.24%
20023-3.86%$27,7505.19%$16,8713.74%$16,6333.74%6.63%-3.86%
200242.91%$28,557-1.58%$16,604-6.07%$15,622-6.07%2.91%3.73%
200251.27%$28,9190.26%$16,646-0.75%$15,505-0.75%1.27%0.39%
20026-4.52%$27,610-5.83%$15,676-7.13%$14,398-7.13%-4.52%1.76%
200272.93%$28,419-8.40%$14,360-7.72%$13,287-7.72%-9.07%2.93%
200284.28%$29,635-0.39%$14,3030.65%$13,3740.65%-1.44%4.28%
20029-10.87%$26,412-10.78%$12,761-10.87%$11,919-10.87%-10.69%4.02%
200210-2.84%$25,6635.46%$13,4588.78%$12,9668.78%2.14%-2.84%
2002115.88%$27,1715.10%$14,1445.88%$13,7285.88%4.32%-0.98%
200212-5.89%$25,570-4.18%$13,552-5.89%$12,919-5.89%-2.47%4.05%
20031-0.45%$25,456-2.35%$13,234-2.62%$12,580-2.62%-2.08%-0.45%
200323.03%$26,226-2.07%$12,960-1.52%$12,389-1.52%-2.62%3.03%
20033-1.13%$25,929-0.23%$12,9310.96%$12,5070.96%-1.41%-1.13%
200348.25%$28,0699.45%$14,1538.25%$13,5408.25%10.65%0.91%
2003511.15%$31,1988.21%$15,3145.26%$14,2525.26%11.15%5.67%
200363.80%$32,3842.53%$15,7021.26%$14,4321.26%3.80%-1.48%
200374.78%$33,9333.26%$16,2141.74%$14,6841.74%4.78%-8.57%
200384.08%$35,3163.01%$16,7011.93%$14,9671.93%4.08%1.43%
200395.41%$37,2272.17%$17,064-1.07%$14,807-1.07%5.41%5.07%
2003105.22%$39,1715.43%$17,9915.64%$15,6425.64%5.22%-2.58%
2003110.86%$39,5101.53%$18,2650.86%$15,7780.86%2.19%0.31%
2003126.08%$41,9115.65%$19,2975.22%$16,6015.22%6.08%1.23%
200414.21%$43,6773.02%$19,8791.82%$16,9041.82%4.21%1.74%
200423.52%$45,2132.45%$20,3661.38%$17,1361.38%3.52%1.96%
200432.31%$46,2590.40%$20,447-1.51%$16,877-1.51%2.31%1.45%
20044-1.98%$45,344-1.78%$20,084-1.58%$16,611-1.58%-1.98%-5.52%
20045-0.56%$45,0910.10%$20,1041.36%$16,8361.36%-1.15%-0.56%
200461.93%$45,9612.57%$20,6211.93%$17,1611.93%3.21%0.87%
20047-2.76%$44,695-3.03%$19,995-3.31%$16,593-3.31%-2.76%1.52%
200483.39%$46,2080.63%$20,1210.38%$16,6570.38%0.87%3.39%
200492.38%$47,3071.72%$20,4671.07%$16,8341.07%2.38%0.94%
2004103.03%$48,7382.27%$20,9321.51%$17,0891.51%3.03%1.46%
2004117.72%$52,5005.88%$22,1634.05%$17,7814.05%7.72%-2.25%
2004127.12%$56,2405.26%$23,3283.39%$18,3843.39%7.12%2.22%
200510.92%$56,756-0.77%$23,149-2.45%$17,933-2.45%0.92%2.59%
200524.31%$59,2003.20%$23,8902.09%$18,3082.09%4.31%-1.24%
20053-2.21%$57,892-1.98%$23,416-1.76%$17,986-1.76%-2.21%-0.76%
200543.22%$59,759-1.97%$22,955-1.91%$17,642-1.91%-2.02%3.22%
200552.55%$61,2821.77%$23,3613.17%$18,2013.17%0.36%2.55%
200560.13%$61,3601.42%$23,6930.13%$18,2240.13%2.72%1.64%
200574.53%$64,1414.12%$24,6693.71%$18,9003.71%4.53%-2.58%
200582.03%$65,4410.56%$24,807-0.91%$18,727-0.91%2.03%2.87%
200593.53%$67,7532.16%$25,3430.79%$18,8760.79%3.53%-2.78%
200510-4.10%$64,972-2.89%$24,610-1.68%$18,559-1.68%-4.10%-1.74%
2005110.57%$65,3453.22%$25,4023.76%$19,2583.76%2.67%0.57%
2005120.02%$65,3593.31%$26,2430.02%$19,2620.02%6.60%2.33%
200617.37%$70,1745.01%$27,5562.65%$19,7712.65%7.37%-0.90%
200620.62%$70,6120.44%$27,6790.26%$19,8230.26%0.62%0.81%
200635.27%$74,3323.25%$28,5781.23%$20,0671.23%5.27%-3.39%
200645.50%$78,4173.41%$29,5541.33%$20,3351.33%5.50%-1.96%
20065-4.93%$74,551-3.91%$28,397-2.90%$19,746-2.90%-4.93%-0.03%
200660.71%$75,077-1.01%$28,1100.13%$19,7710.13%-2.15%0.71%
200671.84%$76,4580.05%$28,1250.61%$19,8910.61%-0.50%1.84%
200682.36%$78,2642.36%$28,7892.36%$20,3612.36%2.36%2.74%
200692.56%$80,2712.19%$29,4202.56%$20,8832.56%1.82%1.58%
2006103.25%$82,8803.46%$30,4373.25%$21,5623.25%3.66%0.77%
2006114.51%$86,6193.20%$31,4111.89%$21,9691.89%4.51%1.91%
2006123.95%$90,0422.67%$32,2501.39%$22,2751.39%3.95%-2.14%
200712.94%$92,6882.22%$32,9641.49%$22,6071.49%2.94%-0.85%
200720.32%$92,986-0.82%$32,693-1.97%$22,162-1.97%0.32%2.93%
20073-1.13%$91,9372.16%$33,4001.11%$22,4091.11%3.21%-1.13%
200743.87%$95,4944.14%$34,7844.42%$23,3994.42%3.87%0.86%
200753.48%$98,8142.96%$35,8133.48%$24,2123.48%2.44%-1.93%
20076-1.68%$97,158-1.40%$35,311-1.68%$23,806-1.68%-1.13%-0.88%
200772.39%$99,476-1.77%$34,684-3.08%$23,072-3.08%-0.46%2.39%
200781.97%$101,440-0.74%$34,4281.50%$23,4181.50%-2.97%1.97%
200793.72%$105,2182.87%$35,4163.72%$24,2903.72%2.01%0.21%
2007101.58%$106,8793.77%$36,7511.58%$24,6731.58%5.96%1.40%
200711-8.06%$98,268-6.12%$34,502-4.19%$23,640-4.19%-8.06%4.59%
200712-0.48%$97,798-1.50%$33,984-0.70%$23,475-0.70%-2.30%-0.48%
200812.64%$100,381-7.57%$31,410-6.02%$22,063-6.02%-9.13%2.64%
200820.35%$100,733-0.50%$31,254-3.25%$21,345-3.25%2.26%0.35%
20083-1.34%$99,386-0.89%$30,976-0.44%$21,251-0.44%-1.34%1.02%
20084-1.84%$97,5573.55%$32,0754.85%$22,2834.85%2.24%-1.84%
200851.29%$98,8181.68%$32,6151.29%$22,5711.29%2.07%-2.13%
20086-7.91%$91,006-8.17%$29,950-8.44%$20,666-8.44%-7.91%1.80%
200870.30%$91,275-3.33%$28,953-0.83%$20,494-0.83%-5.82%0.30%
200881.80%$92,922-0.97%$28,6721.45%$20,7911.45%-3.39%1.80%
20089-8.91%$84,647-12.17%$25,183-8.91%$18,939-8.91%-15.43%0.28%
200810-3.63%$81,576-20.47%$20,029-16.79%$15,759-16.79%-24.14%-3.63%
20081112.07%$91,420-6.06%$18,816-7.17%$14,628-7.17%-4.94%12.07%
2008128.87%$99,5245.12%$19,7801.07%$14,7841.07%9.18%8.87%
20091-9.15%$90,420-8.78%$18,043-8.41%$13,540-8.41%-9.15%-8.47%
20092-1.01%$89,508-8.92%$16,434-10.66%$12,097-10.66%-7.18%-1.01%
200935.27%$94,2218.37%$17,8108.76%$13,1578.76%7.98%5.27%
200949.56%$103,22711.77%$19,9059.56%$14,4159.56%13.97%-4.99%
2009513.98%$117,6609.80%$21,8565.62%$15,2255.62%13.98%-2.68%
200961.96%$119,9611.09%$22,0940.22%$15,2580.22%1.96%0.70%
200977.41%$128,8517.49%$23,7507.58%$16,4147.58%7.41%0.80%
200983.60%$133,4884.40%$24,7943.60%$17,0053.60%5.19%1.68%
200996.33%$141,9345.02%$26,0393.72%$17,6373.72%6.33%1.98%
200910-1.67%$139,565-1.77%$25,579-1.87%$17,308-1.87%-1.67%-1.45%
2009111.91%$142,2253.84%$26,5615.98%$18,3435.98%1.70%1.91%
2009121.95%$144,9921.74%$27,0231.95%$18,7001.95%1.53%-5.66%
20101-3.60%$139,766-2.78%$26,271-3.60%$18,026-3.60%-1.96%2.66%
20102-0.21%$139,4751.10%$26,5613.09%$18,5833.09%-0.89%-0.21%
201036.01%$147,8626.59%$28,3116.01%$19,7016.01%7.16%-1.51%
201041.04%$149,4071.31%$28,6821.58%$20,0121.58%1.04%2.76%
20105-8.01%$137,447-9.76%$25,883-8.01%$18,410-8.01%-11.51%4.23%
201064.67%$143,860-2.70%$25,185-5.24%$17,445-5.24%-0.16%4.67%
20107-0.17%$143,6148.26%$27,2647.00%$18,6667.00%9.52%-0.17%
20108-2.64%$139,829-3.58%$26,288-4.53%$17,820-4.53%-2.64%7.08%
20109-1.82%$137,28110.24%$28,9798.92%$19,4108.92%11.56%-1.82%
2010103.67%$142,3223.73%$30,0603.79%$20,1453.79%3.67%-3.29%
2010110.00%$142,322-1.58%$29,5850.00%$20,1450.00%-3.16%-1.60%
201012-3.58%$137,2328.53%$32,1076.67%$21,4896.67%10.38%-3.58%
201110.72%$138,2191.54%$32,6012.36%$21,9952.36%0.72%-2.38%
201123.42%$142,9412.33%$33,3623.42%$22,7473.42%1.25%1.24%
201130.03%$142,9780.25%$33,4450.03%$22,7530.03%0.47%0.02%
201144.92%$150,0103.93%$34,7602.95%$23,4232.95%4.92%2.04%
20115-2.46%$146,326-1.80%$34,134-1.15%$23,155-1.15%-2.46%3.29%
20116-2.00%$143,405-2.24%$33,371-1.67%$22,768-1.67%-2.80%-2.00%
201174.18%$149,399-1.82%$32,764-2.05%$22,302-2.05%-1.59%4.18%
201188.68%$162,370-7.57%$30,284-5.45%$21,087-5.45%-9.69%8.68%
2011910.16%$178,871-9.42%$27,433-7.04%$19,602-7.04%-11.79%10.16%
201110-3.34%$172,9059.55%$30,05210.91%$21,74110.91%8.18%-3.34%
201111-0.23%$172,501-2.09%$29,423-0.23%$21,691-0.23%-3.96%1.82%
2011123.13%$177,907-1.15%$29,0841.02%$21,9111.02%-3.32%3.13%
201214.46%$185,8506.64%$31,0154.46%$22,8894.46%8.81%0.08%
201225.59%$196,2424.95%$32,5494.31%$23,8754.31%5.59%-2.11%
201230.41%$197,0411.84%$33,1503.28%$24,6593.28%0.41%-3.77%
20124-0.64%$195,781-0.66%$32,932-0.64%$24,501-0.64%-0.68%4.37%
201257.79%$211,028-8.90%$30,002-6.02%$23,027-6.02%-11.78%7.79%
20126-1.44%$207,9803.98%$31,1974.11%$23,9734.11%3.86%-1.44%
201271.37%$210,8290.57%$31,3761.37%$24,3011.37%-0.22%3.32%
201282.24%$215,5502.57%$32,1832.24%$24,8452.24%2.90%-1.06%
201293.69%$223,5053.13%$33,1912.58%$25,4862.58%3.69%-2.10%
2012101.19%$226,156-0.34%$33,079-1.86%$25,012-1.86%1.19%-0.43%
2012110.62%$227,5600.59%$33,2750.56%$25,1520.56%0.62%1.35%
2012123.62%$235,7962.26%$34,0270.90%$25,3790.90%3.62%-1.99%
201314.96%$247,4985.07%$35,7525.18%$26,6925.18%4.96%-3.27%
201321.34%$250,8110.77%$36,0261.34%$27,0501.34%0.19%1.26%
201333.74%$260,1882.52%$36,9323.74%$28,0613.74%1.29%0.03%
201341.91%$265,1542.80%$37,9681.91%$28,5971.91%3.70%3.87%
20135-0.49%$263,8490.92%$38,3172.33%$29,2622.33%-0.49%-6.23%
20136-1.35%$260,285-1.76%$37,643-1.35%$28,867-1.35%-2.16%-3.26%
20137-1.93%$255,2655.29%$39,6335.07%$30,3315.07%5.50%-1.93%
20138-0.66%$253,582-1.79%$38,925-2.91%$29,448-2.91%-0.66%-1.28%
201390.88%$255,8125.21%$40,9533.12%$30,3673.12%7.30%0.88%
2013103.99%$266,0214.29%$42,7104.59%$31,7604.59%3.99%1.32%
2013113.03%$274,0771.92%$43,5293.03%$32,7223.03%0.81%-2.49%
2013122.51%$280,9672.62%$44,6692.51%$33,5442.51%2.72%-2.37%
20141-2.23%$274,713-2.85%$43,397-3.47%$32,381-3.47%-2.23%6.26%
201420.60%$276,3565.25%$45,6764.56%$33,8574.56%5.94%0.60%
201430.73%$278,3840.78%$46,0310.82%$34,1360.82%0.73%0.63%
201440.72%$280,4000.05%$46,0540.72%$34,3830.72%-0.62%1.82%
201452.33%$286,9472.14%$47,0382.33%$35,1862.33%1.94%2.73%
201462.05%$292,8351.59%$47,7872.05%$35,9082.05%1.13%-0.16%
20147-1.39%$288,770-1.74%$46,957-1.39%$35,410-1.39%-2.08%0.59%
201484.23%$300,9812.30%$48,0383.98%$36,8203.98%0.62%4.23%
20149-1.41%$296,729-2.92%$46,634-1.41%$36,300-1.41%-4.43%-1.99%
2014102.61%$304,4800.46%$46,8472.42%$37,1792.42%-1.51%2.61%
2014112.68%$312,6470.63%$47,1422.68%$38,1772.68%-1.42%2.86%
201412-0.26%$311,821-0.44%$46,936-0.26%$38,076-0.26%-0.61%2.82%
201518.97%$339,778-1.57%$46,199-3.02%$36,927-3.02%-0.12%8.97%
20152-5.66%$320,5556.27%$49,0985.74%$39,0465.74%6.81%-5.66%
201530.57%$322,380-0.51%$48,846-1.59%$38,424-1.59%0.57%1.13%
201543.45%$333,5092.20%$49,9210.95%$38,7890.95%3.45%-3.07%
201550.88%$336,4281.07%$50,4571.27%$39,2821.27%0.88%-2.16%
20156-1.93%$329,925-1.54%$49,682-1.93%$38,523-1.93%-1.14%-3.73%
201574.21%$343,8071.62%$50,4852.08%$39,3242.08%1.15%4.21%
20158-6.05%$323,018-5.52%$47,700-6.05%$36,946-6.05%-4.99%-0.71%
201591.91%$329,192-2.78%$46,372-2.48%$36,028-2.48%-3.08%1.91%
201510-0.48%$327,6166.51%$49,3908.42%$39,0638.42%4.59%-0.48%
2015110.29%$328,5540.20%$49,4880.29%$39,1750.29%0.11%-0.81%
201512-1.59%$323,321-0.50%$49,243-1.59%$38,551-1.59%0.60%-0.34%
20161-6.67%$301,766-5.82%$46,376-4.98%$36,632-4.98%-6.67%5.24%
201622.86%$310,395-1.27%$45,785-0.15%$36,579-0.15%-2.40%2.86%
201630.05%$310,5587.18%$49,0716.78%$39,0586.78%7.58%0.05%
201640.66%$312,6140.52%$49,3250.37%$39,2040.37%0.66%-0.63%
201651.44%$317,1021.61%$50,1191.78%$39,9031.78%1.44%0.69%
201660.25%$317,894-2.65%$48,7930.25%$40,0020.25%-5.54%6.57%
201673.68%$329,5814.65%$51,0603.68%$41,4733.68%5.62%2.01%
20168-0.18%$328,997-0.02%$51,0480.13%$41,5270.13%-0.18%-1.00%
201690.01%$329,0241.43%$51,7760.01%$41,5300.01%2.84%-1.32%
201610-3.17%$318,606-2.50%$50,481-1.83%$40,769-1.83%-3.17%-4.23%
201611-7.86%$293,5710.60%$50,7853.70%$42,2773.70%-2.50%-7.86%
2016121.96%$299,3331.75%$51,6711.96%$43,1071.96%1.53%-0.35%
201711.88%$304,9703.15%$53,2971.88%$43,9181.88%4.41%0.65%
201721.82%$310,5152.89%$54,8383.96%$45,6593.96%1.82%1.57%
201730.10%$310,8251.92%$55,8920.10%$45,7040.10%3.74%-0.59%
201745.39%$327,5663.20%$57,6811.02%$46,1701.02%5.39%1.58%
201754.27%$341,5462.83%$59,3141.39%$46,8131.39%4.27%1.73%
201760.51%$343,2710.56%$59,6450.61%$47,0990.61%0.51%0.63%
201772.04%$350,2832.76%$61,2892.04%$48,0612.04%3.47%-0.59%
201780.39%$351,6440.34%$61,4980.29%$48,2020.29%0.39%3.27%
201793.97%$365,6013.01%$63,3522.06%$49,1952.06%3.97%-2.27%
2017101.82%$372,2392.07%$64,6612.32%$50,3352.32%1.82%-0.02%
2017113.06%$383,6271.76%$65,7983.06%$51,8753.06%0.46%0.63%
2017121.10%$387,8552.12%$67,1951.10%$52,4471.10%3.14%1.78%
201815.12%$407,7125.42%$70,8345.71%$55,4435.71%5.12%-3.40%
20182-3.69%$392,649-3.86%$68,101-3.69%$53,394-3.69%-4.02%-2.89%
201832.75%$403,463-1.44%$67,120-2.56%$52,030-2.56%-0.33%2.75%
20184-2.04%$395,2450.33%$67,3390.37%$52,2240.37%0.28%-2.04%
201852.39%$404,7100.78%$67,8632.39%$53,4752.39%-0.84%1.79%
201860.61%$407,158-0.78%$67,3360.61%$53,7980.61%-2.16%0.66%
201873.71%$422,2611.90%$68,6173.71%$55,7943.71%0.10%-1.28%
201883.25%$435,9690.74%$69,1223.25%$57,6053.25%-1.77%1.18%
201890.55%$438,386-0.31%$68,9080.55%$57,9240.55%-1.17%-2.74%
201810-6.85%$408,361-9.30%$62,497-6.85%$53,957-6.85%-11.76%-2.82%
2018111.78%$415,6450.82%$63,0082.03%$55,0512.03%-0.39%1.78%
201812-9.04%$378,071-8.46%$57,678-9.04%$50,074-9.04%-7.88%5.50%

Risk and Return Metrics

Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricDual Momentum ModelEqual Weight PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)1.47%0.77%0.71%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)19.16%9.62%8.81%
Geometric Mean (monthly)1.39%0.67%0.61%
Geometric Mean (annualized)17.95%8.29%7.60%
Standard Deviation (monthly)4.17%4.48%4.32%
Standard Deviation (annualized)14.45%15.51%14.96%
Downside Deviation (monthly)2.33%3.12%2.95%
Maximum Drawdown-23.67%-55.28%-50.97%
Stock Market Correlation0.440.920.99
Beta(*)0.400.931.00
Alpha (annualized)14.24%1.30%0.00%
R217.38%81.13%100.00%
Sharpe Ratio1.080.460.43
Sortino Ratio1.870.640.61
Treynor Ratio (%)38.727.656.41
Calmar Ratio0.390.290.67
Active Return10.36%0.69%N/A
Tracking Error15.89%6.81%N/A
Information Ratio0.650.10N/A
Skewness-0.10-0.86-0.65
Excess Kurtosis1.542.081.11
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)5.86%8.08%7.17%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)5.39%6.60%6.40%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)8.37%10.61%9.69%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)77.7497.24100.00
Downside Capture Ratio (%)17.1492.79100.00
Safe Withdrawal Rate20.16%9.16%7.80%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate13.43%5.70%5.10%
Positive Periods183 out of 264 (69.32%)168 out of 264 (63.64%)170 out of 264 (64.39%)
Gain/Loss Ratio1.120.890.83
* Vanguard 500 Index Investor is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are monthly values.

Drawdowns

Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEndDual Momentum ModelEqual Weight PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
Asian CrisisJul 1997Jan 1998-6.37%-6.22%-5.61%
Russian Debt DefaultJul 1998Oct 1998-13.66%-13.61%-15.38%
Dotcom CrashMar 2000Oct 2002-15.92%-46.85%-44.82%
Subprime CrisisNov 2007Mar 2009-23.67%-55.28%-50.97%

Drawdowns for Dual Momentum Model

Drawdowns for Dual Momentum Model (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Oct 20081 yearMay 20097 months1 year 7 months-23.67%
2Mar 2000Jun 20011 year 4 monthsDec 20016 months1 year 10 months-15.92%
3Aug 2015Nov 20161 year 4 monthsJul 20178 months2 years-14.61%
4Sep 2002Jan 20035 monthsMay 20034 months9 months-14.10%
5Jun 1998Aug 19983 monthsNov 19983 months6 months-13.99%
6Oct 2018Dec 20183 months-13.76%
7May 2010Dec 20108 monthsApr 20114 months1 year-8.15%
8Aug 1997Oct 19973 monthsFeb 19984 months7 months-6.37%
9Feb 2015Feb 20151 monthJul 20155 months6 months-5.66%
10May 2006May 20061 monthSep 20064 months5 months-4.93%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Equal Weight Portfolio

Drawdowns for Equal Weight Portfolio (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsMar 20134 years 1 month5 years 5 months-55.28%
2Apr 2000Sep 20022 years 6 monthsJul 20052 years 10 months5 years 4 months-46.85%
3Feb 2018Dec 201811 months-18.57%
4Aug 1998Aug 19981 monthDec 19984 months5 months-13.61%
5Aug 2015Feb 20167 monthsJul 20165 months1 year-9.31%
6Aug 1997Dec 19975 monthsFeb 19982 months7 months-6.22%
7May 2006Jun 20062 monthsOct 20064 months6 months-4.89%
8Jun 2007Aug 20073 monthsOct 20072 months5 months-3.87%
9Sep 2014Jan 20155 monthsFeb 20151 month6 months-3.83%
10Oct 2005Oct 20051 monthNov 20051 month2 months-2.89%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Vanguard 500 Index Investor

Drawdowns for Vanguard 500 Index Investor (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsAug 20123 years 6 months4 years 10 months-50.97%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 monthNov 20064 years 2 months6 years 3 months-44.82%
3Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-15.38%
4Oct 2018Dec 20183 months-13.55%
5Aug 2015Sep 20152 monthsMay 20168 months10 months-8.38%
6Jan 2000Feb 20002 monthsMar 20001 month3 months-6.84%
7Jul 1999Sep 19993 monthsNov 19992 months5 months-6.25%
8Feb 2018Mar 20182 monthsJul 20184 months6 months-6.16%
9Aug 1997Aug 19971 monthNov 19973 months4 months-5.61%
10Apr 2000May 20002 monthsAug 20003 months5 months-4.98%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Rolling Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodDual Momentum ModelEqual Weight PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
AverageHighLowAverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year20.36%83.76%-23.67%11.24%63.25%-47.42%9.07%53.61%-43.32%
3 years18.99%42.13%-3.01%8.81%33.90%-18.64%6.80%27.53%-16.14%
5 years18.92%33.02%6.12%7.84%22.68%-4.20%6.09%22.85%-6.73%
7 years19.62%28.24%10.91%7.92%15.76%0.35%6.08%17.12%-3.94%
10 years19.38%25.94%12.65%7.18%13.10%1.27%5.31%14.17%-3.51%
15 years19.57%22.54%15.79%7.87%11.83%4.85%5.98%10.39%3.64%

Annualized Rolling Return - 3 Years

Annualized Rolling Return - 5 Years

Allocation Changes

Model Selections

Timing periods and related holdings for the timing portfolio
#StartEndMonthsAssetsAsset PerformanceDual Momentum ModelEqual Weight PortfolioVanguard 500 Index Investor
152Jan 2019Jan 20191Please sign-in for forward signals----
151Dec 2018Dec 20181100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -9.04%-9.04%-8.46%-9.04%
150Nov 2018Nov 20181100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.78%1.78%0.82%2.03%
149May 2018Oct 20186100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 3.32%3.32%-7.19%3.32%
148Mar 2018Apr 20182100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 0.66%0.66%-1.12%-2.19%
147Feb 2018Feb 20181100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -3.69%-3.69%-3.86%-3.69%
146Jan 2018Jan 20181100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 5.12%5.12%5.42%5.71%
145Nov 2017Dec 20172100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 4.20%4.20%3.92%4.20%
144Aug 2017Oct 20173100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 6.27%6.27%5.50%4.73%
143Jul 2017Jul 20171100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 2.04%2.04%2.76%2.04%
142Apr 2017Jun 20173100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 10.44%10.44%6.72%3.05%
141Mar 2017Mar 20171100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 0.10%0.10%1.92%0.10%
140Feb 2017Feb 20171100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 1.82%1.82%2.89%3.96%
139Dec 2016Jan 20172100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 3.88%3.88%4.95%3.88%
138Nov 2016Nov 20161100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -7.86%-7.86%0.60%3.70%
137Oct 2016Oct 20161100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -3.17%-3.17%-2.50%-1.83%
136Sep 2016Sep 20161100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 0.01%0.01%1.43%0.01%
135Aug 2016Aug 20161100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -0.18%-0.18%-0.02%0.13%
134Jun 2016Jul 20162100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 3.94%3.94%1.88%3.94%
133Apr 2016May 20162100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 2.11%2.11%2.14%2.16%
132Feb 2016Mar 20162100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.91%2.91%5.81%6.62%
131Jan 2016Jan 20161100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -6.67%-6.67%-5.82%-4.98%
130Nov 2015Dec 20152100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -1.31%-1.31%-0.30%-1.31%
129Sep 2015Oct 20152100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.42%1.42%3.54%5.73%
128Aug 2015Aug 20151100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -6.05%-6.05%-5.52%-6.05%
127Jul 2015Jul 20151100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 4.21%4.21%1.62%2.08%
126Jun 2015Jun 20151100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -1.93%-1.93%-1.54%-1.93%
125Mar 2015May 20153100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 4.95%4.95%2.77%0.60%
124Jan 2015Feb 20152100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.80%2.80%4.61%2.55%
123Nov 2014Dec 20142100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 2.41%2.41%0.19%2.41%
122Oct 2014Oct 20141100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.61%2.61%0.46%2.42%
121Sep 2014Sep 20141100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -1.41%-1.41%-2.92%-1.41%
120Aug 2014Aug 20141100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 4.23%4.23%2.30%3.98%
119Apr 2014Jul 20144100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 3.73%3.73%2.01%3.73%
118Mar 2014Mar 20141100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 0.73%0.73%0.78%0.82%
117Feb 2014Feb 20141100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 0.60%0.60%5.25%4.56%
116Jan 2014Jan 20141100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -2.23%-2.23%-2.85%-3.47%
115Nov 2013Dec 20132100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 5.62%5.62%4.59%5.62%
114Oct 2013Oct 20131100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 3.99%3.99%4.29%4.59%
113Sep 2013Sep 20131100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 0.88%0.88%5.21%3.12%
112Aug 2013Aug 20131100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -0.66%-0.66%-1.79%-2.91%
111Jul 2013Jul 20131100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -1.93%-1.93%5.29%5.07%
110Jun 2013Jun 20131100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -1.35%-1.35%-1.76%-1.35%
109May 2013May 20131100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -0.49%-0.49%0.92%2.33%
108Feb 2013Apr 20133100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 7.13%7.13%6.20%7.13%
107Sep 2012Jan 20135100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 14.82%14.82%11.09%7.43%
106Jul 2012Aug 20122100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 3.64%3.64%3.16%3.64%
105May 2012Jun 20122100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 6.23%6.23%-5.27%-2.16%
104Apr 2012Apr 20121100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -0.64%-0.64%-0.66%-0.64%
103Feb 2012Mar 20122100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 6.02%6.02%6.88%7.73%
102Jan 2012Jan 20121100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 4.46%4.46%6.64%4.46%
101Dec 2011Dec 20111100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 3.13%3.13%-1.15%1.02%
100Nov 2011Nov 20111100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -0.23%-0.23%-2.09%-0.23%
99Jun 2011Oct 20115100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 18.16%18.16%-11.96%-6.11%
98Apr 2011May 20112100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 2.34%2.34%2.06%1.77%
97Feb 2011Mar 20112100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 3.44%3.44%2.59%3.44%
96Jan 2011Jan 20111100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 0.72%0.72%1.54%2.36%
95Dec 2010Dec 20101100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -3.58%-3.58%8.53%6.67%
94Nov 2010Nov 20101100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 0.00%0.00%-1.58%0.00%
93Oct 2010Oct 20101100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 3.67%3.67%3.73%3.79%
92Sep 2010Sep 20101100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -1.82%-1.82%10.24%8.92%
91Aug 2010Aug 20101100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -2.64%-2.64%-3.58%-4.53%
90Jun 2010Jul 20102100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 4.49%4.49%5.34%1.39%
89May 2010May 20101100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -8.01%-8.01%-9.76%-8.01%
88Apr 2010Apr 20101100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 1.04%1.04%1.31%1.58%
87Mar 2010Mar 20101100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 6.01%6.01%6.59%6.01%
86Feb 2010Feb 20101100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -0.21%-0.21%1.10%3.09%
85Dec 2009Jan 20102100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -1.73%-1.73%-1.09%-1.73%
84Nov 2009Nov 20091100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.91%1.91%3.84%5.98%
83Sep 2009Oct 20092100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 4.55%4.55%3.16%1.78%
82Aug 2009Aug 20091100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 3.60%3.60%4.40%3.60%
81May 2009Jul 20093100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 24.82%24.82%19.31%13.87%
80Apr 2009Apr 20091100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 9.56%9.56%11.77%9.56%
79Feb 2009Mar 20092100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 4.20%4.20%-1.29%-2.83%
78Jan 2009Jan 20091100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -9.15%-9.15%-8.78%-8.41%
77Oct 2008Dec 20083100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 17.58%17.58%-21.46%-21.94%
76Sep 2008Sep 20081100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -8.91%-8.91%-12.17%-8.91%
75Jul 2008Aug 20082100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.11%2.11%-4.27%0.60%
74Jun 2008Jun 20081100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -7.91%-7.91%-8.17%-8.44%
73May 2008May 20081100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 1.29%1.29%1.68%1.29%
72Apr 2008Apr 20081100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -1.84%-1.84%3.55%4.85%
71Mar 2008Mar 20081100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -1.34%-1.34%-0.89%-0.44%
70Dec 2007Feb 20083100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.51%2.51%-9.41%-9.71%
69Nov 2007Nov 20071100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -8.06%-8.06%-6.12%-4.19%
68Sep 2007Oct 20072100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 5.36%5.36%6.75%5.36%
67Jul 2007Aug 20072100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 4.41%4.41%-2.50%-1.63%
66May 2007Jun 20072100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 1.74%1.74%1.51%1.74%
65Apr 2007Apr 20071100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 3.87%3.87%4.14%4.42%
64Mar 2007Mar 20071100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -1.13%-1.13%2.16%1.11%
63Nov 2006Feb 20074100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 12.19%12.19%7.41%2.78%
62Aug 2006Oct 20063100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 8.40%8.40%8.22%8.40%
61Jun 2006Jul 20062100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.56%2.56%-0.96%0.74%
60Jan 2006May 20065100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 14.06%14.06%8.21%2.51%
59Dec 2005Dec 20051100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 0.02%0.02%3.31%0.02%
58Nov 2005Nov 20051100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 0.57%0.57%3.22%3.76%
57Jul 2005Oct 20054100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 5.89%5.89%3.87%1.84%
56Jun 2005Jun 20051100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 0.13%0.13%1.42%0.13%
55Apr 2005May 20052100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 5.86%5.86%-0.24%1.19%
54Sep 2004Mar 20057100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 25.29%25.29%16.38%7.98%
53Aug 2004Aug 20041100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 3.39%3.39%0.63%0.38%
52Jul 2004Jul 20041100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -2.76%-2.76%-3.03%-3.31%
51Jun 2004Jun 20041100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 1.93%1.93%2.57%1.93%
50May 2004May 20041100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -0.56%-0.56%0.10%1.36%
49Dec 2003Apr 20045100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 14.77%14.77%9.96%5.28%
48Nov 2003Nov 20031100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 0.86%0.86%1.53%0.86%
47May 2003Oct 20036100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 39.55%39.55%27.12%15.53%
46Apr 2003Apr 20031100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 8.25%8.25%9.45%8.25%
45Jan 2003Mar 20033100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.40%1.40%-4.59%-3.19%
44Nov 2002Dec 20022100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -0.36%-0.36%0.70%-0.36%
43Oct 2002Oct 20021100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -2.84%-2.84%5.46%8.78%
42Sep 2002Sep 20021100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -10.87%-10.87%-10.78%-10.87%
41Jul 2002Aug 20022100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 7.33%7.33%-8.76%-7.12%
40Apr 2002Jun 20023100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -0.50%-0.50%-7.08%-13.43%
39Feb 2002Mar 20022100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -2.66%-2.66%3.72%1.73%
38Jan 2002Jan 20021100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -1.57%-1.57%-1.52%-1.47%
37Dec 2001Dec 20011100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 0.87%0.87%1.03%0.87%
36Nov 2001Nov 20011100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 5.95%5.95%6.80%7.65%
35Jul 2001Oct 20014100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 12.10%12.10%-15.37%-13.10%
34May 2001Jun 20012100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -1.81%-1.81%-4.14%-1.81%
33Mar 2001Apr 20012100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -3.15%-3.15%-1.03%0.92%
32Feb 2001Feb 20011100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -9.14%-9.14%-6.96%-9.14%
31Jan 2001Jan 20011100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 1.67%1.67%2.61%3.55%
30Oct 2000Dec 20003100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 7.17%7.17%-8.78%-7.81%
29Sep 2000Sep 20001100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -5.29%-5.29%-3.99%-5.29%
28Aug 2000Aug 20001100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.08%2.08%4.84%6.19%
27Jul 2000Jul 20001100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -2.65%-2.65%-2.08%-1.50%
26May 2000Jun 20002100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.83%1.83%-0.30%0.41%
25Apr 2000Apr 20001100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -3.00%-3.00%-7.23%-3.00%
24Dec 1999Mar 20004100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 39.46%39.46%24.13%8.35%
23Nov 1999Nov 19991100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 2.02%2.02%6.99%2.02%
22Oct 1999Oct 19991100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 0.12%0.12%4.09%6.33%
21Jul 1999Sep 19993100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 10.90%10.90%2.16%-6.25%
20Jun 1999Jun 19991100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -1.05%-1.05%8.99%5.56%
19Mar 1999May 19993100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 12.94%12.94%9.14%5.42%
18Oct 1998Feb 19995100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 22.54%22.54%21.64%22.54%
17Sep 1998Sep 19981100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 3.29%3.29%0.56%6.41%
16Aug 1998Aug 19981100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -12.74%-12.74%-13.61%-14.47%
15Jul 1998Jul 19981100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -1.05%-1.05%0.65%-1.05%
14Apr 1998Jun 19983100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 9.98%9.98%6.69%3.29%
13Mar 1998Mar 19981100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 5.10%5.10%5.41%5.10%
12Feb 1998Feb 19981100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 5.57%5.57%6.38%7.19%
11Dec 1997Jan 19982100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 2.85%2.85%3.90%2.85%
10Nov 1997Nov 19971100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 1.27%1.27%-0.25%4.60%
9Oct 1997Oct 19971100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: -3.35%-3.35%-3.45%-3.35%
8Sep 1997Sep 19971100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.63%2.63%3.21%5.47%
7Jul 1997Aug 19972100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 1.91%1.91%-2.96%1.91%
6Jun 1997Jun 19971100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: 2.90%2.90%3.68%4.45%
5May 1997May 19971100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 6.09%6.09%6.47%6.09%
4Apr 1997Apr 19971100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: 2.35%2.35%1.52%5.96%
3Mar 1997Mar 19971100.00% Vanguard International Explorer Inv (VINEX)VINEX: -0.41%-0.41%-2.27%-4.14%
2Feb 1997Feb 19971100.00% Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)VFINX: 0.79%0.79%1.18%0.79%
1Jan 1997Jan 19971100.00% Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Inv (VUSTX)VUSTX: -0.65%-0.65%1.14%6.22%