Portfolio Optimization

Portfolio Optimization Configuration

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Asset Groups
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Portfolio Optimization Results (Jan 2020 - May 2023) Save

Portfolio optimization results with the goal to maximize return subject to 12.00% targeted annual volatility. The possible range of expected annual portfolio returns for the given period taking into account the specified constraints is 5.50% to 9.07%. Refer to the efficient frontier section for additional details.

Maximum Return at 12.00% Volatility

Ticker Name Allocation
GPANX Grant Park Multi Alternative Strats N 6.60%
REMIX Standpoint Multi-Asset Investor 23.89%
PQTAX PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat A 18.38%
VGYAX Vanguard Global Wellesley Income Admiral 0.20%
VWIAX Vanguard Wellesley Income Admiral 0.07%
VGWAX Vanguard Global Wellington Admiral 6.93%
COTZX Columbia Thermostat Inst 18.30%
VTMFX Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Adm 5.87%
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 19.76%
Save portfolio »

Maximum Sharpe Ratio Weights

Ticker Name Allocation
GPANX Grant Park Multi Alternative Strats N 14.11%
REMIX Standpoint Multi-Asset Investor 20.74%
PQTAX PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat A 24.20%
VGYAX Vanguard Global Wellesley Income Admiral 2.17%
VWIAX Vanguard Wellesley Income Admiral 1.77%
VGWAX Vanguard Global Wellington Admiral 2.08%
COTZX Columbia Thermostat Inst 22.55%
VTMFX Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Adm 8.06%
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 4.33%
Save portfolio »

Portfolio Performance Summary

Performance Summary

Portfolio performance statistics
MetricMaximum Return at 12.00% VolatilityMaximum Sharpe Ratio WeightsVanguard Balanced Index Adm
Start Balance$10,000$10,000$10,000
End Balance$13,454$13,068$11,745
Annualized Return (CAGR)9.07%8.15%4.82%
Expected Return9.08%8.06%5.65%
Standard Deviation8.64%6.42%13.84%
Best Year16.78%15.75%16.40%
Worst Year-4.35%-1.99%-16.90%
Maximum Drawdown -6.48% -3.60% -20.78%
Sharpe Ratio (ex-ante)0.911.060.32
Sharpe Ratio (ex-post)0.891.040.32
Sortino Ratio1.722.120.46
Active Return4.25%3.33%N/A
Tracking Error7.54%10.34%N/A
Information Ratio0.560.32N/A
Stock Market Correlation0.900.740.99
Results based on historical returns. Expected return is the annualized monthly arithmetic mean return.

Portfolio Growth

   

Annual Returns

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
NameTotal ReturnAnnualized ReturnAnnualized Standard Deviation
3 MonthYear To Date1 year3 yearFull3 year
Maximum Return at 12.00% Volatility1.83%3.63%-0.27%9.35%9.07%8.30%
Maximum Sharpe Ratio Weights0.97%2.21%-1.47%7.61%8.15%6.43%
Vanguard Balanced Index Adm3.33%6.30%0.47%5.75%4.82%12.58%
Trailing return and volatility are as of last full calendar month ending May 2023
Notes and Disclosures
  • IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by Portfolio Visualizer regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
  • Asset allocation and diversification strategies do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
  • Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, commissions, or actual taxes due on investment returns.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • Refer to the related documentation sections for more details on terms and definitions, methodology, and data sources.
  • Portfolio optimization is a process of choosing the proportions of various assets to be held in a portfolio in such a way as to make the portfolio better than any other combination according to the selected objective function such as maximizing risk-adjusted return. Portfolio optimization determines target weights for portfolio assets based on mathematical models that can use either historical or forecasted data as inputs. Optimization results are not guarantees of future performance.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • Compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) is the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio. It is calculated from the portfolio start and end balance and is thus impacted by any cashflows.
  • The time-weighted rate of return (TWRR) is a measure of the compound rate of growth in a portfolio. This is calculated from the holding period returns (e.g. monthly returns), and TWRR will thus not be impacted by cashflows. If there are no external cashflows, TWRR will equal CAGR.
  • The money-weighted rate of return (MWRR) is the internal rate of return (IRR) taking into account cashflows. This is the discount rate at which the present value of cash inflows equals the present value of cash outflows.
  • Standard deviation (Stdev) is used to measure the dispersion of returns around the mean and is often used as a measure of risk. A higher standard deviation implies greater the dispersion of data points around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio, and it is calculated by dividing the mean monthly excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the standard deviation of excess return, and the displayed value is annualized.
  • Sortino Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted return which is a modification of the Sharpe Ratio. While the latter is the ratio of average returns in excess of a risk-free rate divided by the standard deviation of those excess returns, the Sortino Ratio has the same denominator divided by the standard deviation of returns below the risk-free rate.
  • Treynor Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is similar to the Sharpe Ratio, but it uses portfolio beta (systematic risk) as the risk metric in the denominator.
  • Calmar Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is calculated as the annualized return over the past 36 months divided by the maximum drawdown over the past 36 months based on monthly returns.
  • Risk-free returns are calculated based on the Federal Reserve 3-Month Treasury Bill (secondary market) rates.
  • Downside deviation measures the downside volatility of the portfolio returns unlike standard deviation, which includes both upside and downside deviations. Downside deviation is calculated based on negative returns that hurt the portfolio performance.
  • Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other. Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much. Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution or returns from a normal Gaussian distribution shape about its mean. Negative skewness is associated with the left (typically negative returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the right tail; and positive skewness is associated with the right (typically positive returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the left tail.
  • Excess kurtosis is a measure of whether a data distribution is peaked or flat relative to a normal distribution. Distributions with high kurtosis tend to have a distinct peak near the mean, decline rather rapidly, and have heavy or fat tails.
  • A drawdown refers to the decline in value of a single investment or an investment portfolio from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown (Max Drawdown) is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. Drawdown values are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Value at Risk (VaR) measures the scale of loss at a given confidence level. For example, if the 95% confidence one-month VaR is 3%, there is 95% confidence that over the next month the portfolio will not lose more than 3%. Value at Risk can be calculated directly based on historical returns based on a given percentile or analytically based on the mean and standard deviation of the returns.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measures the scale of the expected loss once the specific Value at Risk (VaR) breakpoint has been breached, i.e., it calculates the average tail loss by taking a weighted average between the value at risk and losses exceeding the value at risk.
  • Beta is a measure of systematic risk and measures the volatility of a particular investment relative to the market or its benchmark. Alpha measures the active return of the investment compared to the market benchmark return. R-squared is the percentage of a portfolio's movements that can be explained by movements in the selected benchmark index.
  • Active return is the investment return minus the return of its benchmark. For periods longer than 12 months this is displayed as annualized value, i.e., annualized investment return minus annualized benchmark return.
  • Tracking error, also known as active risk, is the standard deviation of active return. This is displayed as annualized value based on the standard deviation of monthly active returns.
  • Information ratio is the active return divided by the tracking error. It measures whether the investment outperformed its benchmark consistently.
  • Gain/Loss ratio is a measure of downside risk, and it is calculated as the average positive return in up periods divided by the average negative return in down periods.
  • Upside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was up, and Downside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was down. An upside capture ratio greater than 100 would indicate that the fund outperformed its benchmark when the market was up, and a downside capture ratio below 100 would indicate that the fund lost less than its benchmark when the market was down. To calculate upside capture ratio a new series from the portfolio returns is constructed by dropping all time periods where the benchmark return is less than equal to zero. The up capture is then the quotient of the annualized return of the resulting manager series, divided by the annualized return of the resulting benchmark series. The downside capture ratio is calculated analogously.
  • All risk measures for the portfolio and portfolio assets are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Monte Carlo method was used to resample the efficient frontier inputs to mitigate the impact of input estimation errors.
  • The annual results for 2023 are based on full calendar months from January to May.
  • The optimization results assume monthly rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation.

Efficient Frontier Assets

Efficient Frontier Assets
#AssetExpected ReturnStandard DeviationSharpe RatioMin. WeightMax. Weight
1Grant Park Multi Alternative Strats N (GPANX)3.51%5.46%0.4150.00%25.00%
2Standpoint Multi-Asset Investor (REMIX)11.90%9.92%1.0740.00%25.00%
3PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat A (PQTAX)9.79%11.75%0.7270.00%25.00%
4Vanguard Global Wellesley Income Admiral (VGYAX)2.07%10.26%0.0810.00%25.00%
5Vanguard Wellesley Income Admiral (VWIAX)2.53%9.85%0.1310.00%25.00%
6Vanguard Global Wellington Admiral (VGWAX)5.30%13.78%0.2940.00%25.00%
7Columbia Thermostat Inst (COTZX)7.10%9.49%0.6170.00%25.00%
8Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Adm (VTMFX)5.46%11.69%0.3610.00%25.00%
9SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)11.19%20.13%0.4940.00%25.00%
Results based on historical returns. Expected return is the annualized monthly arithmetic mean return. Ex-ante Sharpe Ratio calculated using 3-month treasury bill returns as the risk-free rate.

Asset Correlations

Efficient Frontier Asset Correlations
NameTickerGPANXREMIXPQTAXVGYAXVWIAXVGWAXCOTZXVTMFXSPY
Grant Park Multi Alternative Strats NGPANX1.000.750.310.410.420.450.440.430.47
Standpoint Multi-Asset InvestorREMIX0.751.000.320.450.480.560.470.500.60
PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat APQTAX0.310.321.00-0.49-0.49-0.42-0.43-0.47-0.37
Vanguard Global Wellesley Income AdmiralVGYAX0.410.45-0.491.000.980.970.810.930.89
Vanguard Wellesley Income AdmiralVWIAX0.420.48-0.490.981.000.960.860.940.91
Vanguard Global Wellington AdmiralVGWAX0.450.56-0.420.970.961.000.780.930.93
Columbia Thermostat InstCOTZX0.440.47-0.430.810.860.781.000.850.81
Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced AdmVTMFX0.430.50-0.470.930.940.930.851.000.97
SPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustSPY0.470.60-0.370.890.910.930.810.971.00
Based on monthly returns from Jan 2020 to May 2023

Efficient Frontiers

Efficient Frontier Portfolios

Efficient Frontier Assets
#GPANXREMIXPQTAXVGYAXVWIAXVGWAXCOTZXVTMFXSPYExpected Return *Standard Deviation *Sharpe Ratio *
125.00%0.66%24.98%15.44%13.83%0.00%20.01%0.09%0.00%5.50%5.23%0.813
224.98%0.87%24.97%14.84%13.59%0.00%20.53%0.23%0.00%5.54%5.23%0.822
324.96%1.11%24.96%14.44%13.23%0.00%20.88%0.42%0.00%5.59%5.24%0.830
424.93%1.36%24.95%14.01%12.91%0.00%21.19%0.65%0.00%5.63%5.24%0.838
524.89%1.62%24.95%13.69%12.50%0.00%21.46%0.89%0.00%5.68%5.25%0.845
624.85%1.90%24.94%13.34%12.13%0.00%21.69%1.15%0.00%5.73%5.26%0.853
724.81%2.20%24.93%13.01%11.75%0.00%21.85%1.44%0.00%5.77%5.27%0.860
824.76%2.51%24.93%12.64%11.43%0.01%21.98%1.75%0.00%5.81%5.28%0.866
924.71%2.83%24.92%12.29%11.08%0.01%22.10%2.06%0.00%5.86%5.29%0.873
1024.65%3.15%24.91%11.93%10.76%0.01%22.18%2.40%0.00%5.90%5.30%0.880
1124.58%3.47%24.90%11.59%10.42%0.02%22.28%2.74%0.00%5.95%5.31%0.887
1224.50%3.80%24.90%11.29%10.07%0.02%22.36%3.07%0.00%5.99%5.32%0.893
1324.40%4.13%24.90%10.99%9.72%0.02%22.45%3.39%0.00%6.04%5.33%0.899
1424.30%4.46%24.89%10.71%9.39%0.02%22.54%3.70%0.00%6.08%5.34%0.906
1524.18%4.81%24.88%10.43%9.09%0.02%22.60%3.99%0.00%6.13%5.36%0.912
1624.05%5.16%24.88%10.15%8.81%0.02%22.66%4.26%0.00%6.17%5.37%0.918
1723.91%5.53%24.87%9.89%8.54%0.02%22.73%4.50%0.01%6.21%5.38%0.924
1823.75%5.91%24.86%9.65%8.27%0.03%22.79%4.74%0.01%6.26%5.40%0.929
1923.58%6.29%24.85%9.40%8.03%0.03%22.83%4.97%0.02%6.30%5.41%0.935
2023.41%6.69%24.83%9.14%7.83%0.03%22.87%5.18%0.02%6.35%5.43%0.940
2123.23%7.08%24.82%8.89%7.62%0.03%22.90%5.40%0.03%6.39%5.44%0.946
2223.04%7.48%24.80%8.66%7.41%0.04%22.93%5.61%0.03%6.43%5.46%0.951
2322.83%7.88%24.79%8.44%7.20%0.04%22.96%5.82%0.03%6.48%5.47%0.956
2422.62%8.28%24.78%8.24%6.99%0.04%23.00%6.02%0.04%6.52%5.49%0.961
2522.41%8.69%24.76%8.03%6.78%0.04%23.03%6.21%0.04%6.56%5.51%0.966
2622.19%9.12%24.74%7.83%6.60%0.04%23.07%6.37%0.04%6.61%5.52%0.971
2721.97%9.55%24.73%7.61%6.42%0.04%23.09%6.54%0.05%6.65%5.54%0.976
2821.74%9.98%24.71%7.40%6.26%0.05%23.12%6.69%0.06%6.70%5.56%0.981
2921.52%10.41%24.69%7.19%6.10%0.07%23.13%6.83%0.07%6.74%5.58%0.986
3021.29%10.83%24.67%6.98%5.94%0.10%23.15%6.95%0.08%6.78%5.59%0.990
3121.06%11.27%24.66%6.80%5.76%0.13%23.14%7.08%0.10%6.83%5.61%0.995
3220.82%11.72%24.65%6.64%5.59%0.15%23.14%7.17%0.12%6.87%5.63%1.000
3320.55%12.16%24.64%6.50%5.43%0.17%23.16%7.26%0.14%6.92%5.65%1.004
3420.27%12.59%24.63%6.36%5.26%0.21%23.17%7.35%0.16%6.96%5.67%1.008
3520.00%13.03%24.61%6.21%5.09%0.24%23.19%7.45%0.18%7.00%5.69%1.012
3619.72%13.45%24.59%6.06%4.94%0.28%23.21%7.54%0.20%7.05%5.71%1.016
3719.45%13.86%24.57%5.91%4.79%0.33%23.23%7.62%0.23%7.09%5.73%1.020
3819.20%14.27%24.55%5.75%4.65%0.38%23.23%7.70%0.27%7.13%5.76%1.023
3918.93%14.66%24.54%5.60%4.49%0.44%23.23%7.79%0.31%7.17%5.78%1.027
4018.68%15.04%24.52%5.42%4.35%0.51%23.24%7.88%0.36%7.21%5.80%1.030
4118.43%15.43%24.51%5.24%4.19%0.58%23.23%7.99%0.41%7.26%5.82%1.033
4218.18%15.81%24.50%5.06%4.03%0.65%23.23%8.07%0.47%7.30%5.84%1.037
4317.95%16.18%24.49%4.87%3.89%0.74%23.20%8.14%0.55%7.34%5.87%1.040
4417.70%16.52%24.48%4.68%3.77%0.83%23.18%8.21%0.63%7.38%5.89%1.042
4517.45%16.84%24.47%4.49%3.67%0.91%23.16%8.27%0.73%7.42%5.92%1.045
4617.22%17.14%24.45%4.33%3.57%0.98%23.13%8.32%0.84%7.46%5.94%1.047
4716.98%17.45%24.44%4.17%3.46%1.06%23.10%8.39%0.96%7.50%5.97%1.049
4816.74%17.74%24.43%4.01%3.31%1.15%23.05%8.48%1.08%7.54%5.99%1.051
4916.52%18.02%24.42%3.84%3.19%1.24%23.00%8.55%1.22%7.57%6.02%1.052
5016.31%18.28%24.40%3.67%3.08%1.30%22.96%8.61%1.38%7.61%6.05%1.054
5116.14%18.55%24.38%3.52%2.93%1.38%22.92%8.64%1.55%7.65%6.07%1.055
5215.96%18.80%24.36%3.36%2.78%1.48%22.88%8.67%1.72%7.69%6.10%1.056
5315.76%19.04%24.34%3.23%2.62%1.57%22.86%8.69%1.90%7.73%6.13%1.058
5415.58%19.25%24.32%3.10%2.47%1.63%22.82%8.72%2.10%7.76%6.16%1.059
5515.40%19.44%24.30%2.96%2.34%1.70%22.76%8.76%2.33%7.80%6.19%1.059
5615.21%19.63%24.27%2.83%2.24%1.77%22.73%8.75%2.56%7.83%6.22%1.059
5715.01%19.84%24.26%2.71%2.16%1.82%22.72%8.66%2.83%7.87%6.25%1.060
5814.81%20.05%24.24%2.60%2.07%1.87%22.69%8.57%3.10%7.91%6.29%1.061
5914.61%20.23%24.23%2.49%1.99%1.93%22.66%8.48%3.38%7.94%6.32%1.061
6014.45%20.40%24.23%2.38%1.91%2.00%22.61%8.36%3.68%7.98%6.35%1.061
6114.28%20.57%24.22%2.27%1.84%2.05%22.58%8.21%3.99%8.02%6.39%1.061
6214.11%20.74%24.20%2.17%1.77%2.08%22.55%8.06%4.33%8.06%6.42%1.061
6313.94%20.91%24.18%2.06%1.71%2.12%22.53%7.88%4.66%8.09%6.46%1.061
6413.76%21.08%24.16%1.98%1.66%2.15%22.50%7.71%5.01%8.13%6.49%1.061
6513.59%21.24%24.14%1.89%1.60%2.19%22.46%7.54%5.35%8.17%6.53%1.061
6613.40%21.40%24.11%1.81%1.54%2.23%22.40%7.41%5.71%8.20%6.57%1.060
6713.21%21.55%24.08%1.72%1.49%2.27%22.31%7.29%6.07%8.24%6.61%1.059
6813.02%21.68%24.06%1.64%1.45%2.33%22.23%7.15%6.45%8.27%6.65%1.058
6912.85%21.80%24.03%1.55%1.41%2.38%22.15%7.00%6.85%8.31%6.69%1.057
7012.67%21.92%24.01%1.47%1.36%2.42%22.09%6.81%7.26%8.35%6.73%1.055
7112.50%22.03%23.98%1.39%1.29%2.45%22.02%6.64%7.69%8.38%6.78%1.054
7212.32%22.13%23.96%1.32%1.23%2.52%21.94%6.46%8.12%8.42%6.82%1.053
7312.11%22.22%23.93%1.25%1.17%2.59%21.85%6.33%8.55%8.46%6.87%1.051
7411.92%22.31%23.89%1.19%1.12%2.64%21.75%6.20%8.99%8.49%6.92%1.048
7511.77%22.39%23.84%1.13%1.07%2.70%21.64%6.02%9.44%8.52%6.96%1.046
7611.63%22.46%23.77%1.08%1.01%2.80%21.51%5.85%9.89%8.56%7.01%1.043
7711.43%22.58%23.69%1.03%0.95%2.85%21.37%5.74%10.35%8.59%7.06%1.041
7811.25%22.69%23.60%0.98%0.89%2.89%21.27%5.60%10.83%8.63%7.12%1.038
7911.09%22.80%23.49%0.94%0.82%2.94%21.17%5.43%11.32%8.66%7.17%1.035
8010.90%22.91%23.35%0.90%0.77%2.98%21.07%5.32%11.80%8.70%7.23%1.031
8110.70%23.04%23.19%0.86%0.72%3.03%20.95%5.24%12.28%8.73%7.29%1.027
8210.51%23.14%23.02%0.83%0.68%3.04%20.85%5.16%12.78%8.76%7.35%1.023
8310.29%23.23%22.85%0.77%0.64%3.06%20.75%5.14%13.27%8.79%7.42%1.018
8410.07%23.31%22.67%0.70%0.60%3.13%20.68%5.09%13.75%8.82%7.48%1.014
859.86%23.38%22.48%0.64%0.57%3.21%20.58%5.04%14.24%8.85%7.55%1.009
869.64%23.43%22.29%0.59%0.54%3.29%20.47%5.01%14.73%8.88%7.61%1.004
879.42%23.47%22.11%0.55%0.50%3.39%20.35%4.98%15.22%8.91%7.68%0.999
889.21%23.49%21.92%0.52%0.46%3.59%20.22%4.87%15.72%8.94%7.75%0.993
898.99%23.53%21.71%0.49%0.41%3.84%20.03%4.81%16.20%8.96%7.83%0.986
908.76%23.59%21.45%0.46%0.35%4.03%19.84%4.84%16.67%8.98%7.90%0.980
918.51%23.66%21.16%0.43%0.30%4.24%19.64%4.92%17.14%9.01%7.99%0.972
928.28%23.72%20.83%0.40%0.25%4.46%19.40%5.05%17.61%9.03%8.08%0.964
938.05%23.78%20.44%0.36%0.21%4.72%19.17%5.21%18.07%9.04%8.17%0.955
947.78%23.85%19.98%0.33%0.17%5.08%18.93%5.37%18.51%9.05%8.27%0.945
957.49%23.92%19.48%0.29%0.13%5.56%18.70%5.50%18.94%9.07%8.38%0.933
967.10%23.96%18.96%0.25%0.10%6.17%18.45%5.65%19.36%9.07%8.50%0.921
976.60%23.89%18.38%0.20%0.07%6.93%18.30%5.87%19.76%9.08%8.64%0.907
986.08%23.76%17.69%0.19%0.04%7.67%17.98%6.36%20.22%9.07%8.80%0.889
995.51%23.53%16.94%0.22%0.02%8.72%17.19%7.15%20.71%9.05%9.00%0.867
1004.50%23.00%15.75%0.25%0.00%10.75%15.63%8.37%21.75%9.01%9.37%0.829
*Annualized ex-ante values shown for portfolio return and volatility. Ex-ante Sharpe Ratio calculated using historical 3-month treasury bill returns as the risk-free rate.

Annual Returns

Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationMaximum Return at 12.00% VolatilityMaximum Sharpe Ratio WeightsVanguard Balanced Index AdmGrant Park Multi Alternative Strats N (GPANX)Standpoint Multi-Asset Investor (REMIX)PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat A (PQTAX)Vanguard Global Wellesley Income Admiral (VGYAX)Vanguard Wellesley Income Admiral (VWIAX)Vanguard Global Wellington Admiral (VGWAX)Columbia Thermostat Inst (COTZX)Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Adm (VTMFX)SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
ReturnBalanceReturnBalanceReturnBalance
20201.36%16.78%$11,67815.75%$11,57516.40%$11,6408.85%16.07%8.50%5.52%8.54%7.51%29.63%13.30%18.37%
20217.04%16.24%$13,57412.69%$13,04414.22%$13,2945.78%19.71%14.51%6.59%8.57%13.53%6.42%13.10%28.74%
20226.45%-4.35%$12,983-1.99%$12,785-16.90%$11,048-2.21%3.43%11.05%-8.06%-9.01%-7.04%-12.92%-12.68%-18.17%
20232.21%3.63%$13,4542.21%$13,0686.30%$11,745-0.39%2.60%-1.18%1.96%0.04%2.29%4.47%5.22%9.68%
Annual return for 2023 is from 01/01/2023 to 05/31/2023

Monthly Returns

Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
YearMonthMaximum Return at 12.00% VolatilityMaximum Sharpe Ratio WeightsVanguard Balanced Index AdmGrant Park Multi Alternative Strats N (GPANX)Standpoint Multi-Asset Investor (REMIX)PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat A (PQTAX)Vanguard Global Wellesley Income Admiral (VGYAX)Vanguard Wellesley Income Admiral (VWIAX)Vanguard Global Wellington Admiral (VGWAX)Columbia Thermostat Inst (COTZX)Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Adm (VTMFX)SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
ReturnBalanceReturnBalanceReturnBalance
20201-0.36%$9,964-0.27%$9,9730.84%$10,0840.00%-1.10%-1.63%0.23%1.28%-0.96%1.21%0.91%-0.04%
20202-2.48%$9,717-0.84%$9,889-4.22%$9,6580.95%-4.04%2.38%-2.13%-2.45%-4.61%0.40%-3.36%-7.92%
20203-1.91%$9,5310.42%$9,931-8.47%$8,8400.56%2.42%6.27%-8.57%-6.29%-10.62%0.07%-7.96%-12.46%
202046.04%$10,1074.30%$10,3588.55%$9,5961.03%5.14%-0.86%4.75%5.71%6.61%8.66%5.63%12.70%
202051.80%$10,2891.25%$10,4883.48%$9,9300.65%-0.39%-0.29%1.87%2.13%2.92%2.80%4.18%4.76%
202060.27%$10,316-0.11%$10,4761.73%$10,1020.09%0.10%-3.00%1.26%0.47%1.25%1.43%1.45%1.78%
202073.45%$10,6722.94%$10,7843.99%$10,5041.38%2.45%3.14%2.89%2.81%2.82%3.36%3.65%5.89%
202082.76%$10,9671.63%$10,9603.88%$10,9120.54%2.49%-1.08%0.83%0.21%3.30%2.80%3.47%6.98%
20209-2.52%$10,691-2.22%$10,717-2.11%$10,682-1.98%-2.62%-2.94%-1.69%-0.68%-1.96%-1.28%-1.81%-3.74%
202010-1.41%$10,540-1.04%$10,605-1.46%$10,526-1.01%-1.82%0.21%-1.20%-1.28%-2.31%-1.18%-1.21%-2.49%
2020116.83%$11,2605.33%$11,1717.64%$11,3302.70%8.41%1.76%6.38%5.73%9.77%6.09%6.14%10.88%
2020123.71%$11,6783.62%$11,5752.73%$11,6403.72%4.66%4.70%1.58%1.19%2.62%2.32%2.40%3.71%
20211-0.38%$11,634-0.27%$11,543-0.50%$11,5820.00%0.26%-0.49%-1.05%-1.28%-0.91%-0.39%-0.16%-1.02%
202122.76%$11,9552.45%$11,8261.29%$11,7322.93%5.47%1.58%0.49%0.65%2.27%1.23%0.68%2.78%
202132.45%$12,2481.73%$12,0301.57%$11,916-0.95%2.88%1.94%1.79%1.69%2.91%1.32%2.08%4.54%
202143.25%$12,6462.71%$12,3563.46%$12,3282.26%3.76%1.62%1.76%2.03%2.52%2.72%3.06%5.29%
202151.19%$12,7961.22%$12,5070.36%$12,3730.94%1.31%2.35%1.32%1.42%2.17%0.42%0.37%0.66%
202160.83%$12,9030.48%$12,5671.88%$12,605-1.52%0.61%0.89%-0.13%0.50%-0.29%0.64%1.33%2.25%
202171.16%$13,0520.88%$12,6781.50%$12,794-0.17%0.83%1.10%1.02%1.31%0.75%0.85%1.38%2.44%
202181.31%$13,2230.94%$12,7971.66%$13,0060.00%0.90%1.81%0.40%0.93%0.93%0.16%1.34%2.98%
20219-0.89%$13,106-0.03%$12,793-3.11%$12,6010.26%-0.22%3.21%-1.57%-1.93%-1.95%-1.26%-2.57%-4.66%
2021103.84%$13,6093.05%$13,1834.04%$13,1103.93%5.00%2.85%1.40%1.94%3.13%0.37%3.18%7.02%
202111-2.68%$13,245-2.75%$12,821-0.75%$13,011-2.14%-5.33%-4.87%-1.24%-1.16%-2.67%-0.05%-0.22%-0.80%
2021122.49%$13,5741.74%$13,0442.18%$13,2940.26%3.10%1.90%2.30%2.26%4.16%0.28%2.03%4.63%
20221-2.44%$13,242-1.73%$12,818-4.51%$12,695-0.37%-2.86%0.18%-0.87%-1.48%-1.01%-2.28%-4.03%-5.27%
202220.20%$13,2690.80%$12,920-1.97%$12,4461.31%2.46%3.06%-1.50%-1.39%-1.79%-1.29%-1.55%-2.95%
202233.00%$13,6672.62%$13,2580.84%$12,5512.58%6.21%5.58%-0.55%-0.76%0.12%-2.42%0.26%3.76%
20224-1.62%$13,445-0.14%$13,240-6.99%$11,673-0.09%1.24%6.56%-3.89%-4.23%-4.73%-3.95%-5.54%-8.78%
202250.34%$13,4910.17%$13,2630.14%$11,689-0.63%1.08%-1.29%1.64%1.83%1.82%0.80%0.69%0.23%
20226-2.90%$13,099-1.53%$13,060-5.66%$11,027-1.09%-2.57%4.22%-4.01%-4.29%-5.56%-3.76%-4.74%-8.25%
202272.46%$13,4211.07%$13,2006.50%$11,7441.10%0.22%-4.50%2.73%3.41%3.84%4.00%5.70%9.21%
20228-1.93%$13,162-1.53%$12,998-3.30%$11,357-2.53%-0.95%0.78%-3.32%-2.66%-3.40%-2.52%-2.83%-4.08%
20229-2.89%$12,781-1.36%$12,822-7.26%$10,532-0.93%-1.48%6.84%-5.72%-5.85%-6.79%-5.85%-6.03%-9.24%
2022103.13%$13,1821.78%$13,0494.27%$10,9820.28%2.70%-0.07%2.40%2.80%5.54%1.52%3.52%8.13%
2022110.83%$13,291-0.46%$12,9894.62%$11,490-0.47%-0.44%-9.02%6.41%5.47%7.61%3.84%4.71%5.56%
202212-2.32%$12,983-1.58%$12,785-3.84%$11,048-1.29%-1.87%-0.60%-1.04%-1.60%-1.84%-1.33%-2.75%-5.76%
202313.41%$13,4262.78%$13,1415.42%$11,6472.05%2.52%0.63%3.96%3.27%3.78%4.26%4.51%6.29%
20232-1.59%$13,213-1.51%$12,942-2.42%$11,366-2.58%-0.67%-0.09%-2.50%-3.29%-2.52%-2.38%-2.18%-2.51%
202330.13%$13,230-0.74%$12,8462.64%$11,666-0.39%-0.15%-7.01%1.63%1.47%1.76%2.58%2.52%3.71%
202341.26%$13,3971.19%$12,9990.87%$11,7671.38%1.13%1.84%1.29%1.19%1.61%0.54%0.53%1.60%
202350.43%$13,4540.53%$13,068-0.19%$11,745-0.78%-0.22%3.80%-2.28%-2.46%-2.21%-0.47%-0.13%0.46%

Risk and Return Metrics

Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricMaximum Return at 12.00% VolatilityMaximum Sharpe Ratio WeightsVanguard Balanced Index Adm
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)0.76%0.67%0.47%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)9.46%8.36%5.80%
Geometric Mean (monthly)0.73%0.65%0.39%
Geometric Mean (annualized)9.07%8.15%4.82%
Standard Deviation (monthly)2.49%1.85%3.99%
Standard Deviation (annualized)8.64%6.42%13.84%
Downside Deviation (monthly)1.24%0.85%2.69%
Maximum Drawdown-6.48%-3.60%-20.78%
Stock Market Correlation0.900.740.99
Beta(*)0.550.331.00
Alpha (annualized)5.99%6.20%-0.00%
R276.57%50.16%100.00%
Sharpe Ratio0.891.040.32
Sortino Ratio1.722.120.46
Treynor Ratio (%)14.3420.734.41
Calmar Ratio1.442.110.28
Active Return4.25%3.33%N/A
Tracking Error7.54%10.34%N/A
Information Ratio0.560.32N/A
Skewness0.310.37-0.30
Excess Kurtosis-0.49-0.24-0.22
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)2.68%1.73%6.99%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)3.30%2.34%6.10%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)2.90%2.49%7.87%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)75.0853.36100.00
Downside Capture Ratio (%)49.5427.27100.00
Safe Withdrawal Rate39.11%38.30%36.60%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate4.26%3.33%0.00%
Positive Periods26 out of 41 (63.41%)24 out of 41 (58.54%)25 out of 41 (60.98%)
Gain/Loss Ratio1.211.780.86
* Vanguard Balanced Index Adm is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are monthly values.

Drawdowns

Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEndMaximum Return at 12.00% VolatilityMaximum Sharpe Ratio WeightsVanguard Balanced Index Adm
COVID-19 StartJan 2020Mar 2020-4.69%-1.11%-12.34%

Drawdowns for Maximum Return at 12.00% Volatility

Drawdowns for Maximum Return at 12.00% Volatility
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Apr 2022Sep 20226 months-6.48%
2Jan 2020Mar 20203 monthsApr 20201 month4 months-4.69%
3Sep 2020Oct 20202 monthsNov 20201 month3 months-3.89%
4Nov 2021Jan 20223 monthsMar 20222 months5 months-2.69%
5Sep 2021Sep 20211 monthOct 20211 month2 months-0.89%
6Jan 2021Jan 20211 monthFeb 20211 month2 months-0.38%

Drawdowns for Maximum Sharpe Ratio Weights

Drawdowns for Maximum Sharpe Ratio Weights
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jun 2022Dec 20227 months-3.60%
2Sep 2020Oct 20202 monthsNov 20201 month3 months-3.24%
3Nov 2021Jan 20223 monthsMar 20222 months5 months-2.77%
4Jan 2020Feb 20202 monthsApr 20202 months4 months-1.11%
5Jan 2021Jan 20211 monthFeb 20211 month2 months-0.27%
6Apr 2022Apr 20221 monthMay 20221 month2 months-0.14%
7Jun 2020Jun 20201 monthJul 20201 month2 months-0.11%
8Sep 2021Sep 20211 monthOct 20211 month2 months-0.03%

Drawdowns for Vanguard Balanced Index Adm

Drawdowns for Vanguard Balanced Index Adm
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 2022Sep 20229 months-20.78%
2Feb 2020Mar 20202 monthsJun 20203 months5 months-12.34%
3Sep 2020Oct 20202 monthsNov 20201 month3 months-3.54%
4Sep 2021Sep 20211 monthOct 20211 month2 months-3.11%
5Nov 2021Nov 20211 monthDec 20211 month2 months-0.75%
6Jan 2021Jan 20211 monthFeb 20211 month2 months-0.50%

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
TickerNameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioMarket Correlation
GPANXGrant Park Multi Alternative Strats N3.41%5.46%8.85%-2.21%-6.47%0.400.680.47
REMIXStandpoint Multi-Asset Investor12.04%9.92%19.71%2.60%-5.33%1.062.140.61
PQTAXPIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat A9.50%11.75%14.51%-1.18%-15.51%0.721.08-0.36
VGYAXVanguard Global Wellesley Income Admiral1.56%10.26%6.59%-8.06%-14.74%0.080.110.89
VWIAXVanguard Wellesley Income Admiral2.08%9.85%8.57%-9.01%-14.71%0.130.180.91
VGWAXVanguard Global Wellington Admiral4.46%13.78%13.53%-7.04%-16.63%0.290.430.93
COTZXColumbia Thermostat Inst6.87%9.49%29.63%-12.92%-16.84%0.611.060.81
VTMFXVanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Adm4.89%11.69%13.30%-12.68%-17.17%0.360.520.98
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust9.60%20.13%28.74%-18.17%-23.93%0.490.751.00

Portfolio Asset Performance

Performance of portfolio assets
NameTotal ReturnAnnualized ReturnExpense Ratio
3 MonthYear To Date1 year3 yearNetGross
Grant Park Multi Alternative Strats N0.20%-0.39%-5.23%2.80%1.71%1.71%
Standpoint Multi-Asset Investor0.75%2.60%-1.90%13.15%1.55%1.77%
PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat A-1.71%-1.18%-4.29%8.82%1.87%2.11%
Vanguard Global Wellesley Income Admiral0.60%1.96%-1.17%3.29%0.29%0.29%
Vanguard Wellesley Income Admiral0.15%0.04%-3.20%2.38%0.16%0.16%
Vanguard Global Wellington Admiral1.11%2.29%0.71%7.80%0.32%0.32%
Columbia Thermostat Inst2.65%4.47%-0.18%3.38%0.60%0.65%
Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Adm2.93%5.22%1.97%6.02%0.09%0.09%
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust5.86%9.68%2.92%12.87%0.09%0.09%
Trailing returns as of last calendar month ending May 2023

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
TickerNameGPANXREMIXPQTAXVGYAXVWIAXVGWAXCOTZXVTMFXSPYMaximum Return at 12.00% VolatilityMaximum Sharpe Ratio WeightsVanguard Balanced Index Adm
GPANXGrant Park Multi Alternative Strats N1.000.750.310.410.420.450.440.430.470.710.820.47
REMIXStandpoint Multi-Asset Investor0.751.000.320.450.480.560.470.500.600.860.920.55
PQTAXPIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat A0.310.321.00-0.49-0.49-0.42-0.43-0.47-0.370.010.27-0.43
VGYAXVanguard Global Wellesley Income Admiral0.410.45-0.491.000.980.970.810.930.890.780.610.92
VWIAXVanguard Wellesley Income Admiral0.420.48-0.490.981.000.960.860.940.910.800.640.94
VGWAXVanguard Global Wellington Admiral0.450.56-0.420.970.961.000.780.930.930.840.680.93
COTZXColumbia Thermostat Inst0.440.47-0.430.810.860.781.000.850.810.770.670.87
VTMFXVanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Adm0.430.50-0.470.930.940.930.851.000.970.840.660.99
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust0.470.60-0.370.890.910.930.810.971.000.900.730.99

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
TickerNameMaximum Return at 12.00% VolatilityMaximum Sharpe Ratio Weights
GPANXGrant Park Multi Alternative Strats N$82.62$177
REMIXStandpoint Multi-Asset Investor$1,122$971
PQTAXPIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat A$756$971
VGYAXVanguard Global Wellesley Income Admiral$1.38$15.63
VWIAXVanguard Wellesley Income Admiral$0.53$14.65
VGWAXVanguard Global Wellington Admiral$138$42.63
COTZXColumbia Thermostat Inst$412$530
VTMFXVanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Adm$113$161
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust$828$185
Return attribution decomposes portfolio gains into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to returns by each of the assets.

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
TickerNameMaximum Return at 12.00% VolatilityMaximum Sharpe Ratio Weights
GPANXGrant Park Multi Alternative Strats N2.97%9.78%
REMIXStandpoint Multi-Asset Investor23.64%29.44%
PQTAXPIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat A0.23%12.00%
VGYAXVanguard Global Wellesley Income Admiral0.19%2.10%
VWIAXVanguard Wellesley Income Admiral0.06%1.74%
VGWAXVanguard Global Wellington Admiral9.28%3.01%
COTZXColumbia Thermostat Inst15.50%22.23%
VTMFXVanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Adm6.69%9.76%
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust41.43%9.95%
Risk attribution decomposes portfolio risk into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to overall volatility by each of the assets.

Annual Asset Returns