This Monte Carlo simulation tool provides a means to test long term expected portfolio growth and portfolio survival based on withdrawals, e.g., testing whether the portfolio can sustain the planned withdrawals required for retirement or by an endowment fund. The following simulation models are supported for portfolio returns:
You can choose from multiple withdrawal models including:
To simulate multiple stages such as career and retirement with detailed cashflow goals use the Financial Goals planning tool.
Asset Class | Allocation |
---|---|
US Stock Market | 50.00% |
Total US Bond Market | 50.00% |
Save portfolio » |
10th Percentile | 25th Percentile | 50th Percentile | 75th Percentile | 90th Percentile | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Time Weighted Rate of Return (nominal) | 5.55% | 6.73% | 7.98% | 9.20% | 10.26% |
Time Weighted Rate of Return (real) | 2.63% | 3.82% | 5.03% | 6.24% | 7.33% |
Portfolio End Balance (nominal) | $620,959 | $1,861,851 | $3,744,230 | $6,366,692 | $9,639,657 |
Portfolio End Balance (real) | $269,114 | $812,242 | $1,648,317 | $2,816,576 | $4,331,160 |
Maximum Drawdown | -57.70% | -36.62% | -26.76% | -21.30% | -17.14% |
Maximum Drawdown Excluding Cashflows | -31.68% | -25.28% | -20.91% | -18.92% | -16.23% |
Safe Withdrawal Rate | 4.51% | 5.41% | 6.47% | 7.64% | 8.78% |
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate | 2.58% | 3.69% | 4.80% | 5.88% | 6.83% |
9544 portfolios out of 10000 simulated portfolios (95.44%) survived all withdrawals. |
Name | US Stock Market | Total US Bond Market | Inflation | CAGR | Expected Annual Return | Annualized Volatility |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US Stock Market | 1.00 | 0.13 | -0.02 | 10.05% | 11.41% | 15.60% |
Total US Bond Market | 0.13 | 1.00 | -0.16 | 5.11% | 5.19% | 4.07% |
Inflation | -0.02 | -0.16 | 1.00 | 2.78% | 2.79% | 1.16% |
Asset correlations and return vs. risk statistics are based on monthly returns from Jan 1987 to Dec 2022 |
Percentile | 1 Year | 3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years | 15 Years | 20 Years | 25 Years | 30 Years |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10th Percentile | -2.69% | 0.45% | 2.21% | 3.86% | 4.62% | 5.06% | 5.37% | 5.55% |
25th Percentile | 1.29% | 4.46% | 5.06% | 5.85% | 6.24% | 6.46% | 6.61% | 6.73% |
50th Percentile | 9.89% | 8.54% | 8.21% | 8.07% | 7.98% | 7.98% | 7.97% | 7.98% |
75th Percentile | 14.24% | 12.14% | 11.10% | 10.18% | 9.73% | 9.48% | 9.30% | 9.20% |
90th Percentile | 20.22% | 15.09% | 13.58% | 11.96% | 11.21% | 10.78% | 10.44% | 10.26% |
Return | 1 Year | 3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years | 15 Years | 20 Years | 25 Years | 30 Years |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
>= 0.00% | 83.12% | 91.12% | 95.76% | 99.18% | 99.81% | 99.96% | 99.99% | 100.00% |
>= 2.50% | 71.80% | 83.06% | 89.04% | 95.28% | 97.97% | 99.14% | 99.63% | 99.82% |
>= 5.00% | 66.55% | 72.17% | 75.44% | 82.89% | 87.47% | 90.40% | 92.50% | 94.19% |
>= 7.50% | 63.87% | 56.80% | 56.08% | 57.17% | 57.50% | 58.03% | 59.33% | 60.15% |
>= 10.00% | 49.85% | 39.52% | 34.47% | 27.04% | 21.58% | 17.75% | 14.93% | 12.96% |
>= 12.50% | 27.60% | 22.84% | 15.81% | 6.92% | 3.41% | 1.87% | 0.90% | 0.45% |
Loss | Loss Probability Excluding Cashflows | Loss Probability Including Cashflows | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Within Time Period | End of Time Period | Within Time Period | End of Time Period | |
>= 2.50% | 36.28% | 0.00% | 56.29% | 13.54% |
>= 5.00% | 28.35% | 0.00% | 49.36% | 13.23% |
>= 7.50% | 23.89% | 0.00% | 42.44% | 12.92% |
>= 10.00% | 15.76% | 0.00% | 34.25% | 12.73% |
>= 12.50% | 11.22% | 0.00% | 29.68% | 12.49% |
>= 15.00% | 9.66% | 0.00% | 26.55% | 12.35% |
>= 17.50% | 8.56% | 0.00% | 24.32% | 12.08% |
>= 20.00% | 3.48% | 0.00% | 21.31% | 11.77% |
>= 22.50% | 2.31% | 0.00% | 18.56% | 11.53% |
>= 25.00% | 1.36% | 0.00% | 16.76% | 11.32% |
>= 27.50% | 0.86% | 0.00% | 15.18% | 11.12% |
>= 30.00% | 0.63% | 0.00% | 13.89% | 10.89% |
>= 32.50% | 0.37% | 0.00% | 12.75% | 10.60% |
>= 35.00% | 0.18% | 0.00% | 11.86% | 10.31% |
>= 37.50% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 11.17% | 10.08% |
>= 40.00% | 0.09% | 0.00% | 10.65% | 9.76% |
Loss is measured against the original portfolio balance. |