Monte Carlo Simulation

This Monte Carlo simulation tool provides a means to test long term expected portfolio growth and portfolio survival based on withdrawals, e.g., testing whether the portfolio can sustain the planned withdrawals required for retirement or by an endowment fund. The following simulation models are supported for portfolio returns:

You can choose from several different withdrawal models including:

To simulate multiple stages such as career and retirement with detailed cashflow goals use the Financial Goals planning tool.

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Monte Carlo Simulation Results

Monte Carlo simulation results for 5000 portfolios based on entered mean and historical asset correlations and volatility. Returns were modeled as correlated random samples from a multivariate normal distribution. The configured portfolio model had 4.31% annual mean return with 10.62% standard deviation. The simulation results are based on generated nominal returns and specified inflation adjusted withdrawals ($45,000 per year). The simulated inflation model used normal distribution with 2.50% mean and 1.00% standard deviation based on the parameters. The generated inflation samples were correlated with simulated asset returns based on historical correlations. The available historical data for the simulation inputs was constrained by REIT [Jan 1994 - Nov 2019].
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Portfolio Allocation

Asset Class Allocation
US Stock Market 40.00%
Global ex-US Stock Market 20.00%
Total US Bond Market 30.00%
REIT 10.00%
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Summary Statistics

Summary Statistics
10th Percentile25th Percentile50th Percentile75th Percentile90th Percentile
Time Weighted Rate of Return (nominal)0.70%2.15%3.69%5.38%6.84%
Time Weighted Rate of Return (real)-1.77%-0.36%1.19%2.83%4.23%
Portfolio End Balance (nominal)$0.00$55,704$403,375$911,421$1,513,415
Portfolio End Balance (real)$0.00$33,866$248,115$555,087$927,454
Maximum Drawdown-100.00%-95.07%-67.45%-42.11%-29.85%
Maximum Drawdown Excluding Cashflows-38.83%-31.96%-25.87%-20.98%-17.64%
Safe Withdrawal Rate3.93%4.67%5.61%6.69%7.79%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate0.00%0.00%1.18%2.76%4.06%
3930 portfolios out of 5000 simulated portfolios (78.60%) survived all withdrawals.
   
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • The projections and other information generated by the Monte Carlo simulation tool regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time, and hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • A Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical technique designed to provide a range of possible outcomes to determine the probability of a particular result or set of results. The simulation provides a distribution of possible results, which are used to derive the probability of different outcomes.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • The probability of success is based on the number of simulations the portfolio survives with a positive end balance.
  • Maximum drawdown statistics are calculated from simulated monthly balances.
  • Safe withdrawal rate is the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment without the portfolio running out of money.
  • Perpetual withdrawal rate is the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance.
  • The results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets at the end of each year.
  • Contributions and withdrawals are done at the end of each specified time period

Simulated Assets - Correlations and Returns

Simulated Assets - Correlations and Returns
NameUS Stock MarketGlobal ex-US Stock MarketTotal US Bond MarketREITInflationCAGRExpected Annual ReturnAnnualized Volatility
US Stock Market1.000.83-0.000.570.044.36%5.50%14.79%
Global ex-US Stock Market0.831.000.010.540.054.28%5.70%16.56%
Total US Bond Market-0.000.011.000.18-0.141.54%1.60%3.56%
REIT0.570.540.181.000.043.11%5.00%19.17%
Inflation0.040.05-0.140.041.000.21%2.50%1.00%
Asset correlations are based on monthly returns from Jan 1994 to Dec 2018. Historical volatility is used with specified expected annual returns. CAGR is estimated from the expected mean return and volatility.

Expected Annual Return

Expected Annual Return
Percentile1 Year3 Years5 Years10 Years15 Years20 Years
10th Percentile-8.86%-3.72%-2.10%-0.57%0.26%0.70%
25th Percentile-3.23%-0.21%0.63%1.53%1.89%2.15%
50th Percentile3.73%3.88%3.78%3.76%3.73%3.69%
75th Percentile11.02%7.93%6.83%6.01%5.61%5.38%
90th Percentile18.30%12.07%9.96%8.09%7.35%6.84%

Annual Return Probabilities

Annual Return Probabilities
Return1 Year3 Years5 Years10 Years15 Years20 Years
>= 0.00%63.72%74.08%78.68%86.72%91.76%94.68%
>= 2.50%54.64%58.74%60.74%64.34%67.62%70.14%
>= 5.00%45.50%42.02%39.24%35.70%32.26%30.36%
>= 7.50%36.54%27.38%20.90%13.46%9.02%6.00%
>= 10.00%28.22%16.08%9.88%3.70%1.34%0.52%
>= 12.50%21.06%8.98%3.68%0.72%0.02%0.02%

Loss Probabilities

Loss Probabilities
LossLoss Probability Excluding CashflowsLoss Probability Including Cashflows
Within Time PeriodEnd of Time PeriodWithin Time PeriodEnd of Time Period
>= 2.50%72.32%4.78%93.88%77.88%
>= 5.00%59.74%4.42%91.14%77.02%
>= 7.50%49.04%3.94%88.70%75.70%
>= 10.00%40.46%3.52%85.86%74.66%
>= 12.50%33.18%2.90%83.52%73.58%
>= 15.00%26.52%2.62%81.32%72.58%
>= 17.50%21.04%2.30%79.22%71.48%
>= 20.00%16.82%1.82%77.04%70.48%
>= 22.50%13.34%1.56%75.22%69.54%
>= 25.00%10.36%1.38%73.38%68.58%
>= 27.50%8.00%1.18%71.52%67.50%
>= 30.00%5.90%0.94%69.58%66.26%
>= 32.50%4.66%0.70%67.90%65.16%
>= 35.00%3.56%0.60%66.20%63.76%
>= 37.50%2.32%0.48%64.74%62.52%
>= 40.00%1.68%0.36%62.98%61.18%
Loss is measured against the original portfolio balance.