This factor regression tool supports factor regression analysis of individual assets or a portfolio of assets using the given risk factor model. The multiple linear regression indicates how well the returns of the given assets or a portfolio are explained by the risk factor exposures. The supported equity risk factor models include:

- The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) with market factor (MKT)
- The Fama-French three factor model with market, size, and value factors (MKT, SMB, HML)
- The Carhart four-factor model with market, size, value, and momentum factors (MKT, SMB, HML, MOM)
- The Fama-French five factor model with market, size, value, profitability, and investment factors (MKT, SMB, HML, RMW, CMA)
- The q-factor model with market, size, investment, return on equity, and expected growth factors (MKT, ME, I/A, ROE, EG)

Additional supported equity factors include the short and long-term reversal factors (STREV, LTREV) based on Fama-French factor data, quality (QMJ) factor based on both AQR and Alpha Architect factor data, and bet against beta (BAB) factor based on AQR factor data.

For fixed income funds and balanced funds you can include the fixed income factor model to explain returns based on term risk (interest rate risk) and credit risk exposures. The fixed income factors can be further adjusted to account for the yield curve and to add high yield credit risk as an additional factor.

Ticker | VNQ | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Time Period | Feb 2010 - Sep 2016 | ||||

Regression Basis | 80 monthly samples | ||||

Coefficient of Determination (R^{2}) |
63.2% | ||||

Adjusted R^{2} |
60.7% | ||||

Regression F statistic | 25.40 (p-value = 0.000) | ||||

Autocorrelation | No autocorrelation confirmed (Durbin-Watson test value is 2.360 with p-value 0.953) | ||||

Heteroscedasticity | No heteroscedasticity confirmed (Breusch-Pagan test value is 1.872 with p-value 0.867) | ||||

Factor | Loading | Standard Error | t-stat | p-value | 95% Confidence Interval |

Market (Rm-Rf) | 0.96 | 0.137 | 7.047 | 0.000 | 0.690...1.234 |

Size (SMB) | 0.13 | 0.170 | 0.788 | 0.433 | -0.205...0.474 |

Value (HML) | 0.09 | 0.189 | 0.494 | 0.623 | -0.283...0.470 |

Term Risk (TRM) | 0.66 | 0.143 | 4.641 | 0.000 | 0.378...0.947 |

Credit Risk (CDT) | 0.55 | 0.244 | 2.258 | 0.027 | 0.065...1.039 |

Alpha (α) | -46.19bps | 0.004 | -1.203 | 0.233 | -1.23%...0.30% |

Annualized Alpha (α) | -5.54% |

Notes on results:

- Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
- Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
- The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
- The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
- The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
- Refer to the FAQ section regarding the list of factor data sources and methodology descriptions
- Results are based on multiple linear regression against monthly factor returns.
- 3-factor model: R
_{a}= R_{rf}+ B_{mkt}× ( R_{mkt}- R_{rf}) + B_{smb}× SMB + B_{hml}× HML + α - Symbols:
- R
_{a} - Asset return
- R
_{rf} - Risk free return
- B
_{mkt} - Market loading factor (exposure to market risk, different from CAPM beta)
- R
_{mkt} - Market return
- B
_{smb} - Size loading factor (the level of exposure to size risk)
- SMB
- Small Minus Big: The size premium
- B
_{hml} - Value loading factor (the level of exposure to value risk)
- HML
- High Minus Low: The value premium
- B
_{t} - Term risk loading factor
- B
_{c} - Credit risk loading factor
- Alpha
- Excess return over the benchmark
- t-stat
- t-statistic is a ratio of the departure of an estimated parameter from its notional value and its standard error
- p-value
- p-value measures the statistical significance of the estimated parameter
- R
^{2} - Coefficient of determination

- R

Monthly Factor Premiums (BPS) | 112.95 | 8.87 | -12.05 | 76.26 | 36.25 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Name | Ticker | Start Date | End Date | Annual Alpha | Rm-Rf | SMB | HML | TRM | CDT | Total | R^{2} |

Vanguard Real Estate ETF | VNQ | Feb 2010 | Sep 2016 | -5.54% | 108.67 | 1.19 | -1.13 | 50.54 | 20.01 | 133.10 | 63.2% |

Month | VNQ |
---|---|

Feb 2010 | 2.54% |

Mar 2010 | 4.63% |

Apr 2010 | 1.89% |

May 2010 | 1.94% |

Jun 2010 | -2.90% |

Jul 2010 | 2.26% |

Aug 2010 | -0.95% |

Sep 2010 | -3.36% |

Oct 2010 | 3.67% |

Nov 2010 | -1.28% |

Dec 2010 | -0.31% |

Jan 2011 | 3.87% |

Feb 2011 | 0.02% |

Mar 2011 | -1.57% |

Apr 2011 | 1.36% |

May 2011 | 0.73% |

Jun 2011 | 0.90% |

Jul 2011 | 0.40% |

Aug 2011 | -2.65% |

Sep 2011 | -8.62% |

Oct 2011 | 2.74% |

Nov 2011 | -1.47% |

Dec 2011 | 0.94% |

Jan 2012 | 0.41% |

Feb 2012 | -4.29% |

Mar 2012 | 5.74% |

Apr 2012 | 1.16% |

May 2012 | -2.55% |

Jun 2012 | 2.56% |

Jul 2012 | -2.45% |

Aug 2012 | -1.62% |

Sep 2012 | -3.44% |

Oct 2012 | -0.09% |

Nov 2012 | -0.47% |

Dec 2012 | 3.51% |

Jan 2013 | 1.05% |

Feb 2013 | -0.49% |

Mar 2013 | -0.49% |

Apr 2013 | 2.36% |

May 2013 | -3.61% |

Jun 2013 | 3.43% |

Jul 2013 | -4.15% |

Aug 2013 | -2.44% |

Sep 2013 | -0.52% |

Oct 2013 | -0.72% |

Nov 2013 | -6.45% |

Dec 2013 | -1.13% |

Jan 2014 | 3.16% |

Feb 2014 | -0.15% |

Mar 2014 | -0.26% |

Apr 2014 | 2.45% |

May 2014 | -1.20% |

Jun 2014 | -1.34% |

Jul 2014 | 2.70% |

Aug 2014 | -3.98% |

Sep 2014 | -0.76% |

Oct 2014 | 5.67% |

Nov 2014 | -1.32% |

Dec 2014 | 0.18% |

Jan 2015 | 3.91% |

Feb 2015 | -5.32% |

Mar 2015 | 2.37% |

Apr 2015 | -3.26% |

May 2015 | 0.94% |

Jun 2015 | 0.29% |

Jul 2015 | 2.92% |

Aug 2015 | 1.02% |

Sep 2015 | 5.36% |

Oct 2015 | -1.23% |

Nov 2015 | -0.61% |

Dec 2015 | 5.96% |

Jan 2016 | 0.59% |

Feb 2016 | -1.75% |

Mar 2016 | 1.07% |

Apr 2016 | -4.38% |

May 2016 | 1.03% |

Jun 2016 | 2.54% |

Jul 2016 | -1.83% |

Aug 2016 | -4.07% |

Sep 2016 | -0.80% |