Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

Portfolio Backtesting Overview

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks. You can analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, style exposures, and drawdowns. The results cover both returns and fund fundamentals based portfolio style analysis along with risk and return decomposition by each portfolio asset. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

The related asset class level portfolio modeling tool allows you to analyze and compare asset class level portfolios with a longer time horizon starting from 1972.

Portfolio Model Configuration

Time Period

Start Year

First Month

End Year

Last Month

Calendar Aligned

Include YTD

Start Date

End Date

Initial Amount

$ .00

Cashflows

Contribution Amount

$ .00

Inflation Adjusted

Withdrawal Percentage

Frequency

Rebalancing

Absolute Deviation

Relative Deviation

Leverage Type

Leverage Ratio

Debt Amount

$ .00

Debt Interest

Maintenance Margin

Leveraged Benchmark

Reinvest Dividends

Display Income

Factor Regression

Equity Factor Model

Benchmark

Benchmark Ticker

Portfolio Names

Portfolio Name #1

Portfolio Name #2

Portfolio Name #3

Portfolio Assets

Portfolio #1

Portfolio #2

Portfolio #3

Asset 1

Asset 2

Asset 3

Asset 4

Asset 5

Asset 6

Asset 7

Asset 8

Asset 9

Asset 10

Total

Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2012 - Dec 2021)

Apple Inc.

Ticker	Name	Allocation
AAPL	Apple Inc.	100.00%
Save portfolio »

Performance Summary

Portfolio performance statistics
Portfolio	Initial Balance	Final Balance	CAGR	Stdev	Best Year	Worst Year	Max. Drawdown	Sharpe Ratio	Sortino Ratio	Market Correlation
Apple Inc.	$10,000	$143,205	30.50%	27.74%	88.97%	-5.39%	-39.54%	1.09	1.93	0.57

Portfolio Growth

Annual Returns

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
Name	Total Return			Annualized Return				Annualized Standard Deviation
Name	3 Month	Year To Date	1 year	3 year	5 year	10 year	Full	3 year	5 year
Apple Inc.	25.67%	34.65%	34.65%	66.78%	45.48%	30.50%	30.50%	29.28%	29.45%
Trailing return and volatility are as of last full calendar month ending December 2021

Notes and Disclosures

IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by Portfolio Visualizer regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time.
The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities. All use is subject to terms of service.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Asset allocation and diversification strategies do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, commissions, or actual taxes due on investment returns.
The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
Refer to the related documentation sections for more details on terms and definitions, methodology, and data sources.
Portfolio model information represents a blended portfolio consisting of the model's underlying positions and assigned weights provided by the user and rebalanced at the specified schedule. The results were constructed using net of fee mutual fund performance. Portfolio Visualizer does not provide preferential treatment to any specific security or investment.
The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
Market capitalization refers to the total value of all a company's shares of stock. It is calculated by multiplying the price of a stock by its total number of outstanding shares. Large cap refers to a company with a market capitalization value of more than $10 billion, mid cap refers to a company with a market capitalization value between $2 and $10 billion, and small cap refers to a company with a market capitalization value below $2 billion. For funds and portfolios the equity market capitalization is calculated based on the long position of the equity holdings.
Credit quality measures the ability of a bond issuer to repay a bond's interest and principal in a timely manner. Ratings agencies research the financial health of each bond issuer and assign ratings to the bonds being offered. Lower-rated bonds generally offer higher yields to compensate investors for the additional risk. AAA is the highest possible rating that may be assigned to an issuer's bonds by any of the major credit rating agencies. Bonds rated AAA to AA are known as high-grade bonds, bonds rated A to BBB are known as medium-grade bonds, and bonds rated BB to C are known as non-investment grade bonds. An issuer will receive a rating of D if it is already in default on some of its debt. For funds and portfolios the fixed income credit quality break-down is calculated based on the long position of the fixed income holdings.
A fixed income maturity date refers to the specific date on which the investor's principal will be repaid. Duration measures a bond's or fixed income portfolio's price sensitivity to interest rate changes. If a bond has a duration of 5 years, and interest rates increase by 1%, the bond's price will decline by approximately 5%. Conversely, if a bond has a duration of 5 years and interest rates fall by 1%, the bond's price will increase by approximately 5%. A fixed income portfolio's duration is computed as the weighted average of individual bond durations held in the portfolio.
Compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) is the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio. It is calculated from the portfolio start and end balance and is thus impacted by any cashflows.
The time-weighted rate of return (TWRR) is a measure of the compound rate of growth in a portfolio. This is calculated from the holding period returns (e.g. monthly returns), and TWRR will thus not be impacted by cashflows. If there are no external cashflows, TWRR will equal CAGR.
The money-weighted rate of return (MWRR) is the internal rate of return (IRR) taking into account cashflows. This is the discount rate at which the present value of cash inflows equals the present value of cash outflows.
Total return is the combined return in income and capital appreciation from investment in an asset. Yield measures the current cash income received from investment in an asset. Bonds provide yield in the form of interest payments and stocks through dividends.
Standard deviation (Stdev) is used to measure the dispersion of returns around the mean and is often used as a measure of risk. A higher standard deviation implies greater the dispersion of data points around the mean.
Sharpe Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio, and it is calculated by dividing the mean monthly excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the standard deviation of excess return, and the displayed value is annualized.
Sortino Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted return which is a modification of the Sharpe Ratio. While the latter is the ratio of average returns in excess of a risk-free rate divided by the standard deviation of those excess returns, the Sortino Ratio has the same denominator divided by the standard deviation of returns below the risk-free rate.
Treynor Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is similar to the Sharpe Ratio, but it uses portfolio beta (systematic risk) as the risk metric in the denominator.
Calmar Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is calculated as the annualized return over the past 36 months divided by the maximum drawdown over the past 36 months based on monthly returns.
Risk-free returns are calculated based on the Federal Reserve 3-Month Treasury Bill (secondary market) rates.
Downside deviation measures the downside volatility of the portfolio returns unlike standard deviation, which includes both upside and downside deviations. Downside deviation is calculated based on negative returns that hurt the portfolio performance.
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other. Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much. Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution or returns from a normal Gaussian distribution shape about its mean. Negative skewness is associated with the left (typically negative returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the right tail; and positive skewness is associated with the right (typically positive returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the left tail.
Excess kurtosis is a measure of whether a data distribution is peaked or flat relative to a normal distribution. Distributions with high kurtosis tend to have a distinct peak near the mean, decline rather rapidly, and have heavy or fat tails.
A drawdown refers to the decline in value of a single investment or an investment portfolio from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown (Max Drawdown) is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. Drawdown values are calculated based on monthly returns.
Value at Risk (VaR) measures the scale of loss at a given confidence level. If the 5% VaR is -3% the portfolio return is expected to be greater than -3% 95% of the time and less than -3% 5% of the time. Value at Risk can be calculated directly based on historical returns based on a given percentile or analytically based on the mean and standard deviation of the returns.
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measures the scale of the expected loss once the specific Value at Risk (VaR) breakpoint has been breached, i.e., it calculates the average tail loss by taking a weighted average between the value at risk and losses exceeding the value at risk.
Beta is a measure of systematic risk and measures the volatility of a particular investment relative to the market or its benchmark. Alpha measures the active return of the investment compared to the market benchmark return. R-squared is the percentage of a portfolio's movements that can be explained by movements in the selected benchmark index.
Active return is the investment return minus the return of its benchmark. For periods longer than 12 months this is displayed as annualized value, i.e., annualized investment return minus annualized benchmark return.
Tracking error, also known as active risk, is the standard deviation of active return. This is displayed as annualized value based on the standard deviation of monthly active returns.
Information ratio is the active return divided by the tracking error. It measures whether the investment outperformed its benchmark consistently.
Gain/Loss ratio is a measure of downside risk, and it is calculated as the average positive return in up periods divided by the average negative return in down periods.
Upside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was up, and Downside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was down. An upside capture ratio greater than 100 would indicate that the fund outperformed its benchmark when the market was up, and a downside capture ratio below 100 would indicate that the fund lost less than its benchmark when the market was down. To calculate upside capture ratio a new series from the portfolio returns is constructed by dropping all time periods where the benchmark return is less than equal to zero. The up capture is then the quotient of the annualized return of the resulting manager series, divided by the annualized return of the resulting benchmark series. The downside capture ratio is calculated analogously.
All risk measures for the portfolio and portfolio assets are calculated based on monthly returns.
Gross expense ratio reflects the total annual operating expenses paid by each fund. Net expense ratio reflects what investors were charged after waivers, reductions, and reimbursements.
Price to earnings (P/E) ratio of a stock is calculated by dividing the current price of the stock by its trailing 12 months' earnings per share. For funds the price to earnings ratio is computed as the weighted average of fund holdings.
The results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation.

Annual Returns

Annual returns for the configured portfolios
Year	Inflation	Apple Inc. Return	Apple Inc. Balance	Apple Inc. (AAPL)
2012	1.74%	32.59%	$13,259	32.59%
2013	1.50%	8.06%	$14,328	8.06%
2014	0.76%	40.62%	$20,147	40.62%
2015	0.73%	-3.02%	$19,539	-3.02%
2016	2.07%	12.48%	$21,978	12.48%
2017	2.11%	48.48%	$32,631	48.48%
2018	1.91%	-5.39%	$30,872	-5.39%
2019	2.29%	88.97%	$58,338	88.97%
2020	1.36%	82.31%	$106,355	82.31%
2021	7.04%	34.65%	$143,205	34.65%

Monthly Returns

Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
Year	Month	Apple Inc. Return	Apple Inc. Balance	Apple Inc. (AAPL)
2012	1	12.71%	$11,271	12.71%
2012	2	18.83%	$13,394	18.83%
2012	3	10.53%	$14,804	10.53%
2012	4	-2.60%	$14,419	-2.60%
2012	5	-1.07%	$14,265	-1.07%
2012	6	1.09%	$14,420	1.09%
2012	7	4.58%	$15,080	4.58%
2012	8	9.39%	$16,496	9.39%
2012	9	0.28%	$16,542	0.28%
2012	10	-10.76%	$14,762	-10.76%
2012	11	-1.22%	$14,582	-1.22%
2012	12	-9.07%	$13,259	-9.07%
2013	1	-14.41%	$11,348	-14.41%
2013	2	-2.54%	$11,060	-2.54%
2013	3	0.29%	$11,091	0.29%
2013	4	0.03%	$11,094	0.03%
2013	5	2.25%	$11,343	2.25%
2013	6	-11.83%	$10,002	-11.83%
2013	7	14.12%	$11,414	14.12%
2013	8	8.38%	$12,370	8.38%
2013	9	-2.15%	$12,105	-2.15%
2013	10	9.64%	$13,271	9.64%
2013	11	7.01%	$14,201	7.01%
2013	12	0.89%	$14,328	0.89%
2014	1	-10.77%	$12,785	-10.77%
2014	2	5.75%	$13,519	5.75%
2014	3	2.00%	$13,789	2.00%
2014	4	9.94%	$15,160	9.94%
2014	5	7.87%	$16,353	7.87%
2014	6	2.77%	$16,805	2.77%
2014	7	2.87%	$17,288	2.87%
2014	8	7.75%	$18,628	7.75%
2014	9	-1.71%	$18,310	-1.71%
2014	10	7.20%	$19,628	7.20%
2014	11	10.60%	$21,708	10.60%
2014	12	-7.19%	$20,147	-7.19%
2015	1	6.14%	$21,385	6.14%
2015	2	10.07%	$23,539	10.07%
2015	3	-3.14%	$22,800	-3.14%
2015	4	0.58%	$22,932	0.58%
2015	5	4.53%	$23,972	4.53%
2015	6	-3.72%	$23,079	-3.72%
2015	7	-3.29%	$22,319	-3.29%
2015	8	-6.62%	$20,842	-6.62%
2015	9	-2.18%	$20,387	-2.18%
2015	10	8.34%	$22,087	8.34%
2015	11	-0.58%	$21,960	-0.58%
2015	12	-11.02%	$19,539	-11.02%
2016	1	-7.52%	$18,069	-7.52%
2016	2	-0.13%	$18,045	-0.13%
2016	3	12.72%	$20,340	12.72%
2016	4	-13.99%	$17,494	-13.99%
2016	5	7.18%	$18,750	7.18%
2016	6	-4.27%	$17,950	-4.27%
2016	7	9.01%	$19,567	9.01%
2016	8	2.36%	$20,029	2.36%
2016	9	6.55%	$21,341	6.55%
2016	10	0.43%	$21,434	0.43%
2016	11	-2.15%	$20,972	-2.15%
2016	12	4.80%	$21,978	4.80%
2017	1	4.77%	$23,027	4.77%
2017	2	13.37%	$26,107	13.37%
2017	3	4.87%	$27,378	4.87%
2017	4	-0.01%	$27,376	-0.01%
2017	5	6.78%	$29,231	6.78%
2017	6	-5.72%	$27,559	-5.72%
2017	7	3.27%	$28,460	3.27%
2017	8	10.71%	$31,509	10.71%
2017	9	-6.02%	$29,611	-6.02%
2017	10	9.68%	$32,478	9.68%
2017	11	2.03%	$33,137	2.03%
2017	12	-1.52%	$32,631	-1.52%
2018	1	-1.06%	$32,284	-1.06%
2018	2	6.81%	$34,484	6.81%
2018	3	-5.81%	$32,482	-5.81%
2018	4	-1.50%	$31,994	-1.50%
2018	5	13.51%	$36,318	13.51%
2018	6	-0.94%	$35,976	-0.94%
2018	7	2.80%	$36,983	2.80%
2018	8	20.04%	$44,395	20.04%
2018	9	-0.83%	$44,027	-0.83%
2018	10	-3.05%	$42,685	-3.05%
2018	11	-18.12%	$34,951	-18.12%
2018	12	-11.67%	$30,872	-11.67%
2019	1	5.52%	$32,575	5.52%
2019	2	4.48%	$34,033	4.48%
2019	3	9.70%	$37,335	9.70%
2019	4	5.64%	$39,442	5.64%
2019	5	-12.42%	$34,545	-12.42%
2019	6	13.05%	$39,054	13.05%
2019	7	7.64%	$42,037	7.64%
2019	8	-1.64%	$41,347	-1.64%
2019	9	7.30%	$44,363	7.30%
2019	10	11.07%	$49,274	11.07%
2019	11	7.75%	$53,093	7.75%
2019	12	9.88%	$58,338	9.88%
2020	1	5.40%	$61,489	5.40%
2020	2	-11.47%	$54,438	-11.47%
2020	3	-6.98%	$50,640	-6.98%
2020	4	15.54%	$58,508	15.54%
2020	5	8.50%	$63,483	8.50%
2020	6	14.74%	$72,839	14.74%
2020	7	16.51%	$84,867	16.51%
2020	8	21.66%	$103,252	21.66%
2020	9	-10.25%	$92,666	-10.25%
2020	10	-6.00%	$87,104	-6.00%
2020	11	9.55%	$95,423	9.55%
2020	12	11.46%	$106,355	11.46%
2021	1	-0.55%	$105,770	-0.55%
2021	2	-7.97%	$97,340	-7.97%
2021	3	0.73%	$98,054	0.73%
2021	4	7.62%	$105,528	7.62%
2021	5	-5.05%	$100,198	-5.05%
2021	6	9.91%	$110,128	9.91%
2021	7	6.50%	$117,285	6.50%
2021	8	4.25%	$122,269	4.25%
2021	9	-6.80%	$113,950	-6.80%
2021	10	5.87%	$120,634	5.87%
2021	11	10.51%	$133,310	10.51%
2021	12	7.42%	$143,205	7.42%

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Apple Inc.

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Apple Inc.
Ticker	Name	Category	Weight	TTM Yield	Contribution
Ticker	Name	Category	Weight	TTM Yield	Return	Risk
AAPL	Apple Inc.	Technology / Consumer Electronics	100.00%	0.62%	$133,205	100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Risk and Return Metrics

Portfolio return and risk metrics
Metric	Apple Inc.
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)	2.56%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)	35.41%
Geometric Mean (monthly)	2.24%
Geometric Mean (annualized)	30.50%
Standard Deviation (monthly)	8.01%
Standard Deviation (annualized)	27.74%
Downside Deviation (monthly)	4.49%
Maximum Drawdown	-39.54%
Stock Market Correlation	0.57
Beta^(*)	1.17
Alpha (annualized)	12.01%
R²	32.39%
Sharpe Ratio	1.09
Sortino Ratio	1.93
Treynor Ratio (%)	25.76
Calmar Ratio	3.78
Active Return	14.33%
Tracking Error	22.92%
Information Ratio	0.63
Skewness	-0.20
Excess Kurtosis	-0.33
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)	-11.48%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)	-10.61%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)	-13.74%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)	159.42
Downside Capture Ratio (%)	110.24
Safe Withdrawal Rate	24.31%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate	21.73%
Positive Periods	74 out of 120 (61.67%)
Gain/Loss Ratio	1.36
^* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns

Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress Period	Start	End	Apple Inc.
COVID-19 Start	Jan 2020	Mar 2020	-17.64%

Drawdowns for Apple Inc.

Drawdowns for Apple Inc. (worst 10)
Rank	Start	End	Length	Recovery By	Recovery Time	Underwater Period	Drawdown
1	Oct 2012	Jun 2013	9 months	Jun 2014	1 year	1 year 9 months	-39.54%
2	Sep 2018	Dec 2018	4 months	Oct 2019	10 months	1 year 2 months	-30.46%
3	Jun 2015	Apr 2016	11 months	Feb 2017	10 months	1 year 9 months	-27.02%
4	Feb 2020	Mar 2020	2 months	May 2020	2 months	4 months	-17.64%
5	Sep 2020	Oct 2020	2 months	Dec 2020	2 months	4 months	-15.64%
6	Jan 2021	Feb 2021	2 months	Jun 2021	4 months	6 months	-8.48%
7	Mar 2018	Apr 2018	2 months	May 2018	1 month	3 months	-7.22%
8	Dec 2014	Dec 2014	1 month	Feb 2015	2 months	3 months	-7.19%
9	Sep 2021	Sep 2021	1 month	Nov 2021	2 months	3 months	-6.80%
10	Sep 2017	Sep 2017	1 month	Oct 2017	1 month	2 months	-6.02%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
Ticker	Name	CAGR	Stdev	Best Year	Worst Year	Max Drawdown	Sharpe Ratio	Sortino Ratio	Market Correlation
AAPL	Apple Inc.	30.50%	27.74%	88.97%	-5.39%	-39.54%	1.09	1.93	0.57

Portfolio Asset Performance

Performance of portfolio assets
Name	Total Return			Annualized Return
Name	3 Month	Year To Date	1 year	3 year	5 year	10 year
Apple Inc.	25.67%	34.65%	34.65%	66.78%	45.48%	30.50%
Trailing returns as of last calendar month ending December 2021

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll Period	Average	High	Low
1 year	30.64%	149.72%	-30.64%
3 years	26.32%	66.78%	7.21%
5 years	25.83%	45.48%	12.35%
7 years	25.74%	35.41%	13.47%

Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

Portfolio Backtesting Overview

Portfolio Model Configuration

Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2012 - Dec 2021)

Apple Inc.

Performance Summary

Portfolio Growth

Annual Returns

Trailing Returns

Annual Returns

Monthly Returns

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Apple Inc.

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Risk and Return Metrics

Drawdowns

Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Apple Inc.

Portfolio Assets

Portfolio Asset Performance

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling Returns

Annualized Rolling Return - 3 Years

Annualized Rolling Return - 5 Years