Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks. You can analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, style exposures, and drawdowns. The results cover both returns and fund fundamentals based portfolio style analysis along with risk and return decomposition by each portfolio asset. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

The related asset class level portfolio modeling tool allows you to analyze and compare asset class level portfolios with a longer time horizon starting from 1972.

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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2016 - Dec 2019)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Ticker Name Allocation
WHIYX Ivy High Income Y 3.90%
PRPFX Permanent Portfolio Permanent I 2.60%
SGENX First Eagle Global A 2.60%
ACSTX Invesco Comstock A 7.90%
PRBLX Parnassus Core Equity Investor 6.60%
HSCSX Homestead Small Company Stock 4.40%
OAKIX Oakmark International Investor 1.30%
FXNAX Fidelity US Bond Index 9.90%
ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. 0.20%
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) 21.20%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF 18.70%
TQQQ ProShares UltraPro QQQ 17.40%
CASH Meta Financial Group, Inc. 3.30%
Save portfolio »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$10,000$48,925 48.72% 38.49%199.70%-29.72%-29.72% 1.173.700.21
Vanguard 500 Index Investor$10,000$17,058 14.28% 11.58%31.33%-4.52%-13.55% 1.101.681.00
   
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdown analysis is calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The backtested results assume monthly rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationReturnBalanceIvy High Income Y (WHIYX)Permanent Portfolio Permanent I (PRPFX)First Eagle Global A (SGENX)Invesco Comstock A (ACSTX)Parnassus Core Equity Investor (PRBLX)Homestead Small Company Stock (HSCSX)Oakmark International Investor (OAKIX)Fidelity US Bond Index (FXNAX)Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (GBTC)Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (TMF)ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ)Meta Financial Group, Inc. (CASH)
Portfolio 1Vanguard 500 Index InvestorPortfolio 1Vanguard 500 Index Investor
20162.07%35.72%11.82%$13,572$11,18216.74%10.34%10.65%17.83%10.41%18.85%7.91%2.51%-71.23%93.10%-2.52%11.38%126.10%
20172.11%199.70%21.67%$40,675$13,6058.00%11.43%13.48%17.77%16.58%11.99%29.75%3.49%138.61%1,557.21%22.73%118.06%-9.38%
20181.91%-29.72%-4.52%$28,587$12,989-2.71%-6.23%-8.51%-12.24%-0.18%-26.18%-23.43%0.03%96.27%-82.10%-11.01%-19.80%-36.81%
20192.29%71.15%31.33%$48,925$17,05811.25%16.91%20.17%25.34%30.69%22.16%24.21%8.48%452.43%106.56%34.74%133.83%89.68%
Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
YearMonthReturnBalanceIvy High Income Y (WHIYX)Permanent Portfolio Permanent I (PRPFX)First Eagle Global A (SGENX)Invesco Comstock A (ACSTX)Parnassus Core Equity Investor (PRBLX)Homestead Small Company Stock (HSCSX)Oakmark International Investor (OAKIX)Fidelity US Bond Index (FXNAX)Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (GBTC)Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (TMF)ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ)Meta Financial Group, Inc. (CASH)
Portfolio 1Vanguard 500 Index InvestorPortfolio 1Vanguard 500 Index Investor
20161-8.68%-4.98%$9,132$9,502-2.78%-0.52%-3.41%-7.61%-4.33%-6.01%-8.99%1.35%-30.77%-31.75%17.74%-21.13%-5.60%
201627.01%-0.15%$9,772$9,489-0.17%3.70%1.94%-1.10%1.32%-0.33%-1.90%0.81%-4.12%30.23%8.71%-6.04%-4.54%
201635.18%6.78%$10,278$10,1314.55%4.26%5.10%7.37%5.84%7.20%8.70%0.90%0.00%-2.86%-0.64%20.97%10.51%
201645.60%0.37%$10,853$10,1693.74%3.15%3.41%3.26%-1.15%2.19%2.12%0.37%7.73%31.80%-2.39%-9.56%8.82%
201654.58%1.78%$11,351$10,3511.27%-2.66%-0.95%0.18%2.30%1.18%-3.16%-0.04%-16.73%8.93%1.86%12.84%0.46%
2016614.00%0.25%$12,940$10,3760.48%3.94%0.75%-1.55%-0.39%-0.54%-6.73%1.90%-4.78%53.07%21.23%-7.83%2.49%
201672.03%3.68%$13,202$10,7582.46%2.86%3.56%4.10%2.85%3.77%8.11%0.62%-9.55%-20.54%6.07%22.52%7.32%
20168-2.37%0.13%$12,890$10,7721.78%-2.08%-0.05%2.64%1.81%-2.21%3.53%-0.22%1.11%-13.68%-3.58%2.99%12.54%
201692.12%0.01%$13,163$10,7730.90%0.97%0.41%0.09%-0.16%-0.92%1.21%0.02%-35.16%9.76%-4.78%5.80%-1.32%
2016101.11%-1.83%$13,308$10,5750.49%-2.03%-1.11%-0.83%-2.91%-2.31%2.12%-0.81%-15.25%19.89%-13.32%-4.61%20.85%
201611-4.07%3.70%$12,766$10,9661.09%-0.80%0.12%9.18%3.24%11.51%0.81%-2.52%12.00%-8.71%-23.91%1.10%24.16%
2016126.31%1.96%$13,572$11,1821.97%-0.54%0.69%1.84%1.97%5.07%3.37%0.17%-9.82%23.50%-0.99%2.60%13.30%
201710.79%1.88%$13,679$11,3921.58%3.36%2.71%0.63%1.99%-0.63%4.14%0.22%47.52%-10.81%1.49%15.76%-14.63%
201724.98%3.96%$14,360$11,8441.42%0.77%1.51%2.85%1.92%1.15%0.76%0.72%20.13%6.00%4.41%13.39%-2.56%
201730.76%0.10%$14,469$11,856-0.11%-0.08%1.11%-1.52%0.42%-0.97%4.28%-0.04%-23.46%0.97%-2.35%5.64%3.55%
201746.40%1.02%$15,395$11,9760.94%0.38%0.19%0.00%0.86%3.32%4.39%0.73%-13.14%18.59%4.43%8.07%-4.07%
2017556.24%1.39%$24,053$12,1431.31%-0.13%1.31%-0.83%0.80%-3.36%1.27%0.73%-36.13%251.53%5.17%11.43%0.82%
20176-4.68%0.61%$22,926$12,217-0.09%0.03%0.03%2.31%0.75%1.86%0.42%-0.14%14.47%-19.43%1.98%-8.07%4.13%
201773.20%2.04%$23,659$12,4671.20%2.38%1.21%1.85%1.44%-0.41%4.97%0.46%8.05%7.69%-2.43%12.56%-19.89%
2017832.23%0.29%$31,283$12,504-0.24%1.81%0.15%-1.05%0.07%-1.52%-0.51%0.89%-2.13%139.29%10.13%5.04%-1.40%
20179-6.48%2.06%$29,255$12,7610.71%-0.34%1.34%5.16%1.81%7.88%4.47%-0.48%65.22%-30.15%-7.29%-1.06%11.75%
2017106.88%2.32%$31,267$13,0570.51%-0.34%1.36%1.99%1.90%1.13%0.97%0.01%0.66%18.00%-0.53%13.74%11.29%
20171120.08%3.06%$37,546$13,456-0.64%0.83%1.17%2.95%3.41%4.04%-0.52%-0.14%89.54%83.62%1.73%5.50%7.68%
2017128.33%1.10%$40,675$13,6051.16%2.27%0.65%2.34%0.13%-0.64%1.92%0.49%-16.90%32.54%5.04%1.18%-1.24%
20181-1.45%5.71%$40,086$14,3821.35%2.02%3.74%4.99%4.85%2.24%6.83%-1.15%-8.71%-29.63%-9.77%27.70%26.28%
20182-1.28%-3.69%$39,571$13,850-0.53%-3.21%-4.15%-5.04%-4.20%-5.52%-5.77%-0.93%50.91%14.37%-9.57%-6.16%-8.21%
20183-9.54%-2.56%$35,795$13,496-0.29%-0.17%-0.60%-2.23%-0.71%1.10%-3.41%0.58%37.65%-41.17%8.44%-13.42%1.79%
201849.71%0.37%$39,270$13,5470.60%0.05%0.50%2.18%1.01%-1.39%2.27%-0.84%-9.19%51.10%-6.71%-0.42%1.79%
20185-0.45%2.39%$39,094$13,8710.54%1.92%0.34%0.75%0.56%1.46%-4.44%0.67%38.07%-22.52%5.27%17.00%1.80%
20186-6.26%0.61%$36,646$13,955-0.01%-0.94%-0.99%-0.36%1.04%0.57%-2.84%-0.04%17.45%-30.54%1.49%2.18%-13.82%
201875.65%3.71%$38,715$14,4730.83%-0.29%1.61%4.16%5.02%0.58%2.92%0.14%-11.59%22.16%-4.70%7.56%-8.16%
201882.02%3.25%$39,495$14,9430.81%0.10%-0.66%0.79%2.63%1.87%-4.90%0.50%-17.82%-8.83%3.36%17.69%-3.19%
20189-5.70%0.55%$37,245$15,0250.29%-0.27%0.36%-0.00%0.09%-2.93%1.24%-0.57%-0.82%-16.42%-8.77%-1.60%-4.40%
201810-11.86%-6.85%$32,828$13,996-2.51%-3.95%-4.56%-7.74%-5.35%-12.45%-9.72%-0.75%-6.39%-15.11%-9.11%-26.61%-8.38%
201811-4.98%2.03%$31,192$14,280-1.19%0.66%0.69%1.48%4.15%-0.24%-1.40%0.60%18.94%-25.96%4.76%-2.91%-9.43%
201812-8.35%-9.04%$28,587$12,989-2.54%-2.14%-4.78%-10.70%-8.31%-13.52%-5.98%1.87%-12.41%-20.54%17.93%-26.84%-14.98%
201918.07%8.00%$30,893$14,0284.01%6.10%7.19%9.29%6.36%11.07%8.70%1.04%52.85%0.63%0.41%26.92%21.45%
201924.04%3.20%$32,140$14,4771.47%1.34%2.07%2.59%4.15%5.07%2.70%-0.13%25.45%11.78%-4.52%8.57%-0.85%
201936.32%1.94%$34,171$14,7580.78%0.47%0.43%-0.22%2.30%-3.42%-2.32%2.01%1.76%7.17%17.00%11.05%-15.50%
2019411.96%4.04%$38,257$15,3542.14%0.75%2.04%5.00%3.92%5.38%6.99%-0.02%8.78%38.28%-6.56%16.64%30.89%
2019512.73%-6.36%$43,127$14,377-1.37%-2.84%-4.49%-8.22%-4.47%-7.34%-10.31%1.80%51.10%67.32%21.11%-24.01%1.59%
2019614.37%7.03%$49,325$15,3881.09%4.77%6.33%6.71%6.85%9.08%7.71%1.17%20.17%36.80%1.90%23.00%7.38%
20197-0.32%1.43%$49,169$15,6070.42%0.65%-0.12%1.34%1.88%-1.62%-2.25%0.31%54.42%-9.85%0.32%6.20%10.05%
201981.78%-1.59%$50,046$15,3590.15%0.57%-0.86%-5.31%-0.08%-5.64%-3.02%2.60%5.40%-14.08%35.11%-7.79%0.13%
20199-2.75%1.86%$48,669$15,645-0.09%-0.65%1.90%4.04%0.50%3.26%4.67%-0.62%-25.08%-9.64%-9.07%1.88%5.67%
2019102.67%2.15%$49,967$15,982-0.62%1.33%1.16%1.35%0.31%1.50%5.46%0.30%-12.60%5.00%-4.11%12.43%-2.91%
201911-0.03%3.62%$49,955$16,5600.61%0.96%0.54%3.60%3.81%3.07%1.62%-0.04%12.56%-13.94%-2.01%12.20%12.35%
201912-2.06%3.01%$48,925$17,0582.23%2.56%2.83%3.92%2.04%1.47%3.64%-0.19%19.48%-14.42%-10.05%11.37%2.79%

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1
TickerNameCategoryWeightERP/EDurationReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
WHIYXIvy High Income YHigh Yield Bond3.90%0.95%46.192.80$2550.12%
PRPFXPermanent Portfolio Permanent I30% to 50% Equity2.60%0.84%18.20$1930.12%
SGENXFirst Eagle Global AWorld Allocation2.60%1.11%13.30$2120.15%
ACSTXInvesco Comstock ALarge Value7.90%0.81%9.74$9970.31%
PRBLXParnassus Core Equity InvestorLarge Blend6.60%0.86%25.25$1,0650.36%
HSCSXHomestead Small Company StockSmall Blend4.40%1.05%22.81$1740.18%
OAKIXOakmark International InvestorForeign Large Blend1.30%0.98%9.21$91.200.08%
FXNAXFidelity US Bond IndexIntermediate Core Bond9.90%0.03%5.51$3850.21%
ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc.Technology / Solar0.20%$307-0.05%
GBTCGrayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)Miscellaneous21.20%2.00%$21,42188.99%
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETFLeveraged Debt18.70%1.05%$2,8203.42%
TQQQProShares UltraPro QQQLeveraged Equity17.40%0.95%$9,9965.80%
CASHMeta Financial Group, Inc.Financial Services / Banks - Regional3.30%$1,0080.31%
100.00%1.09%21.094.74$38,925100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Fixed Income Credit Quality

Fixed Income Maturity

Fund fundamentals data as of 05/29/2020. (c) 2020 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The fund fundamentals information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1Vanguard 500 Index Investor
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)3.87%1.17%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)57.73%15.03%
Geometric Mean (monthly)3.36%1.12%
Geometric Mean (annualized)48.72%14.28%
Volatility (monthly)11.11%3.34%
Volatility (annualized)38.49%11.58%
Downside Deviation (monthly)3.46%2.14%
Max. Drawdown-29.72%-13.55%
US Market Correlation0.211.00
Beta(*)0.781.00
Alpha (annualized)35.51%0.00%
R25.45%100.00%
Sharpe Ratio1.171.10
Sortino Ratio3.701.68
Treynor Ratio (%)58.1512.80
Calmar Ratio1.791.12
Active Return34.44%N/A
Tracking Error37.52%N/A
Information Ratio0.92N/A
Skewness2.56-0.91
Excess Kurtosis10.231.78
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-9.15%-6.63%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-14.21%-4.32%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-10.70%-7.94%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)219.13100.00
Downside Capture Ratio (%)53.86100.00
Safe Withdrawal Rate62.42%31.91%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate31.35%10.67%
Positive Periods30 out of 48 (62.50%)39 out of 48 (81.25%)
Gain/Loss Ratio1.970.58
* Vanguard 500 Index Investor is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 2018Dec 20181 yearMay 20195 months1 year 5 months-29.72%
2Jan 2016Jan 20161 monthMar 20162 months3 months-8.68%
3Sep 2017Sep 20171 monthNov 20172 months3 months-6.48%
4Jun 2017Jun 20171 monthAug 20172 months3 months-4.68%
5Nov 2016Nov 20161 monthDec 20161 month2 months-4.07%
6Sep 2019Sep 20191 month-2.75%
7Aug 2016Aug 20161 monthOct 20162 months3 months-2.37%
8Jul 2019Jul 20191 monthAug 20191 month2 months-0.32%

Drawdowns for Vanguard 500 Index Investor

Drawdowns for Vanguard 500 Index Investor
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Oct 2018Dec 20183 monthsApr 20194 months7 months-13.55%
2May 2019May 20191 monthJun 20191 month2 months-6.36%
3Feb 2018Mar 20182 monthsJul 20184 months6 months-6.16%
4Jan 2016Feb 20162 monthsMar 20161 month3 months-5.11%
5Oct 2016Oct 20161 monthNov 20161 month2 months-1.83%
6Aug 2019Aug 20191 monthSep 20191 month2 months-1.59%

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
TickerNameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
WHIYXIvy High Income Y8.08%5.07%16.74%-2.71%-6.13%1.292.460.75
PRPFXPermanent Portfolio Permanent I7.75%7.34%16.91%-6.23%-8.08%0.881.630.65
SGENXFirst Eagle Global A8.40%8.45%20.17%-8.51%-11.81%0.841.390.88
ACSTXInvesco Comstock A11.15%14.48%25.34%-12.24%-16.41%0.711.060.93
PRBLXParnassus Core Equity Investor13.83%10.40%30.69%-0.18%-9.61%1.181.860.95
HSCSXHomestead Small Company Stock4.67%17.15%22.16%-26.18%-27.80%0.280.400.88
OAKIXOakmark International Investor7.43%16.56%29.75%-23.43%-28.32%0.440.640.75
FXNAXFidelity US Bond Index3.58%3.16%8.48%0.03%-3.50%0.731.23-0.19
ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc.65.18%95.55%452.43%-71.23%-78.35%0.932.130.16
GBTCGrayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)85.46%168.20%1,557.21%-82.10%-82.10%0.852.920.00
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF9.44%35.64%34.74%-11.01%-46.99%0.380.69-0.35
TQQQProShares UltraPro QQQ46.09%45.41%133.83%-19.80%-48.71%1.051.720.89
CASHMeta Financial Group, Inc.25.18%38.50%126.10%-36.81%-49.96%0.741.370.44

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
TickerNameWHIYXPRPFXSGENXACSTXPRBLXHSCSXOAKIXFXNAXENPHGBTCTMFTQQQCASHPortfolio 1Vanguard 500 Index Investor
WHIYXIvy High Income Y1.000.590.770.750.650.670.71-0.080.040.07-0.280.690.450.230.74
PRPFXPermanent Portfolio Permanent I0.591.000.830.550.580.540.540.300.120.060.120.560.140.250.65
SGENXFirst Eagle Global A0.770.831.000.840.820.770.83-0.020.090.06-0.240.760.400.260.88
ACSTXInvesco Comstock A0.750.550.841.000.870.900.79-0.400.16-0.05-0.550.740.560.100.92
PRBLXParnassus Core Equity Investor0.650.580.820.871.000.810.68-0.140.17-0.01-0.270.820.380.200.95
HSCSXHomestead Small Company Stock0.670.540.770.900.811.000.69-0.290.24-0.07-0.410.660.570.090.86
OAKIXOakmark International Investor0.710.540.830.790.680.691.00-0.26-0.060.00-0.460.720.440.150.75
FXNAXFidelity US Bond Index-0.080.30-0.02-0.40-0.14-0.29-0.261.00-0.030.150.92-0.12-0.370.25-0.18
ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc.0.040.120.090.160.170.24-0.06-0.031.00-0.13-0.020.030.10-0.100.13
GBTCGrayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)0.070.060.06-0.05-0.01-0.070.000.15-0.131.000.130.060.030.960.02
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF-0.280.12-0.24-0.55-0.27-0.41-0.460.92-0.020.131.00-0.29-0.380.20-0.34
TQQQProShares UltraPro QQQ0.690.560.760.740.820.660.72-0.120.030.06-0.291.000.310.280.90
CASHMeta Financial Group, Inc.0.450.140.400.560.380.570.44-0.370.100.03-0.380.311.000.090.43

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1
WHIYXIvy High Income Y$255
PRPFXPermanent Portfolio Permanent I$193
SGENXFirst Eagle Global A$212
ACSTXInvesco Comstock A$997
PRBLXParnassus Core Equity Investor$1,065
HSCSXHomestead Small Company Stock$174
OAKIXOakmark International Investor$91.20
FXNAXFidelity US Bond Index$385
ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc.$307
GBTCGrayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)$21,421
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF$2,820
TQQQProShares UltraPro QQQ$9,996
CASHMeta Financial Group, Inc.$1,008

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1
WHIYXIvy High Income Y0.12%
PRPFXPermanent Portfolio Permanent I0.12%
SGENXFirst Eagle Global A0.15%
ACSTXInvesco Comstock A0.31%
PRBLXParnassus Core Equity Investor0.36%
HSCSXHomestead Small Company Stock0.18%
OAKIXOakmark International Investor0.08%
FXNAXFidelity US Bond Index0.21%
ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc.-0.05%
GBTCGrayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)88.99%
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF3.42%
TQQQProShares UltraPro QQQ5.80%
CASHMeta Financial Group, Inc.0.31%

Annual Asset Returns