Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected mutual funds, ETFs and stocks to analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, standard deviation, annual returns and rolling returns. The results include a visualization of the portfolio growth chart and rolling returns, CAGR, standard deviation, Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, annual returns and inflation adjusted returns. A periodic contribution or withdrawal can also be specified together with the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy. You can also analyze and compare asset class based lazy portfolios with a longer time horizon starting from 1972.

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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2016 - Oct 2019)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Ticker Name Allocation
WHIYX Ivy High Income Y 3.90%
PRPFX Permanent Portfolio Permanent I 2.60%
SGENX First Eagle Global A 2.60%
ACSTX Invesco Comstock A 7.90%
PRBLX Parnassus Core Equity Investor 6.60%
HSCSX Homestead Small Company Stock 4.40%
OAKIX Oakmark International Investor 1.30%
FXNAX Fidelity US Bond Index 9.90%
ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. 0.20%
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) 21.20%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF 18.70%
TQQQ ProShares UltraPro QQQ 17.40%
CASH Meta Financial Group, Inc. 3.30%
Save portfolio »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$10,000$49,967 52.15% 39.16%199.70%-29.72%-29.72% 1.223.850.23
Vanguard 500 Index Investor$10,000$15,982 13.01% 11.72%23.04%-4.52%-13.55% 1.001.511.00
   
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. See Disclaimer and Terms of Use
  • The entered time period is automatically adjusted based on the available return data for the specified assets
  • The annual results for 2019 are based on full calendar months from January to October
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (1-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdowns are calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • Monthly return series of the selected benchmark is used for results comparisons
  • The backtested results include monthly rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
  • The results use total return and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested. Taxes and transaction fees are not included
  • Portfolio cashflows and rebalancing for quarterly and annual periods are aligned with calendar periods.
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationReturnBalanceIvy High Income Y (WHIYX)Permanent Portfolio Permanent I (PRPFX)First Eagle Global A (SGENX)Invesco Comstock A (ACSTX)Parnassus Core Equity Investor (PRBLX)Homestead Small Company Stock (HSCSX)Oakmark International Investor (OAKIX)Fidelity US Bond Index (FXNAX)Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (GBTC)Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (TMF)ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ)Meta Financial Group, Inc. (CASH)
Portfolio 1Vanguard 500 Index InvestorPortfolio 1Vanguard 500 Index Investor
20162.07%35.72%11.82%$13,572$11,18216.74%10.34%10.65%17.83%10.41%18.85%7.91%2.51%-71.23%93.10%-2.52%11.38%126.10%
20172.11%199.70%21.67%$40,675$13,6058.00%11.43%13.48%17.77%16.58%11.99%29.75%3.49%138.61%1,557.21%22.73%118.06%-9.38%
20181.91%-29.72%-4.52%$28,587$12,989-2.71%-6.23%-8.51%-12.24%-0.18%-26.18%-23.43%0.03%96.27%-82.10%-11.01%-19.80%-36.81%
20192.20%74.79%23.04%$49,967$15,9828.16%12.90%16.23%16.42%23.37%16.80%17.94%8.74%310.78%180.45%52.86%87.13%64.25%
Annual returns for 2019 are based on partial year data
Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
YearMonthReturnBalanceIvy High Income Y (WHIYX)Permanent Portfolio Permanent I (PRPFX)First Eagle Global A (SGENX)Invesco Comstock A (ACSTX)Parnassus Core Equity Investor (PRBLX)Homestead Small Company Stock (HSCSX)Oakmark International Investor (OAKIX)Fidelity US Bond Index (FXNAX)Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (GBTC)Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (TMF)ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ)Meta Financial Group, Inc. (CASH)
Portfolio 1Vanguard 500 Index InvestorPortfolio 1Vanguard 500 Index Investor
20161-8.68%-4.98%$9,132$9,502-2.78%-0.52%-3.41%-7.61%-4.33%-6.01%-8.99%1.35%-30.77%-31.75%17.74%-21.13%-5.60%
201627.01%-0.15%$9,772$9,489-0.17%3.70%1.94%-1.10%1.32%-0.33%-1.90%0.81%-4.12%30.23%8.71%-6.04%-4.54%
201635.18%6.78%$10,278$10,1314.55%4.26%5.10%7.37%5.84%7.20%8.70%0.90%0.00%-2.86%-0.64%20.97%10.51%
201645.60%0.37%$10,853$10,1693.74%3.15%3.41%3.26%-1.15%2.19%2.12%0.37%7.73%31.80%-2.39%-9.56%8.82%
201654.58%1.78%$11,351$10,3511.27%-2.66%-0.95%0.18%2.30%1.18%-3.16%-0.04%-16.73%8.93%1.86%12.84%0.46%
2016614.00%0.25%$12,940$10,3760.48%3.94%0.75%-1.55%-0.39%-0.54%-6.73%1.90%-4.78%53.07%21.23%-7.83%2.49%
201672.03%3.68%$13,202$10,7582.46%2.86%3.56%4.10%2.85%3.77%8.11%0.62%-9.55%-20.54%6.07%22.52%7.32%
20168-2.37%0.13%$12,890$10,7721.78%-2.08%-0.05%2.64%1.81%-2.21%3.53%-0.22%1.11%-13.68%-3.58%2.99%12.54%
201692.12%0.01%$13,163$10,7730.90%0.97%0.41%0.09%-0.16%-0.92%1.21%0.02%-35.16%9.76%-4.78%5.80%-1.32%
2016101.11%-1.83%$13,308$10,5750.49%-2.03%-1.11%-0.83%-2.91%-2.31%2.12%-0.81%-15.25%19.89%-13.32%-4.61%20.85%
201611-4.07%3.70%$12,766$10,9661.09%-0.80%0.12%9.18%3.24%11.51%0.81%-2.52%12.00%-8.71%-23.91%1.10%24.16%
2016126.31%1.96%$13,572$11,1821.97%-0.54%0.69%1.84%1.97%5.07%3.37%0.17%-9.82%23.50%-0.99%2.60%13.30%
201710.79%1.88%$13,679$11,3921.58%3.36%2.71%0.63%1.99%-0.63%4.14%0.22%47.52%-10.81%1.49%15.76%-14.63%
201724.98%3.96%$14,360$11,8441.42%0.77%1.51%2.85%1.92%1.15%0.76%0.72%20.13%6.00%4.41%13.39%-2.56%
201730.76%0.10%$14,469$11,856-0.11%-0.08%1.11%-1.52%0.42%-0.97%4.28%-0.04%-23.46%0.97%-2.35%5.64%3.55%
201746.40%1.02%$15,395$11,9760.94%0.38%0.19%0.00%0.86%3.32%4.39%0.73%-13.14%18.59%4.43%8.07%-4.07%
2017556.24%1.39%$24,053$12,1431.31%-0.13%1.31%-0.83%0.80%-3.36%1.27%0.73%-36.13%251.53%5.17%11.43%0.82%
20176-4.68%0.61%$22,926$12,217-0.09%0.03%0.03%2.31%0.75%1.86%0.42%-0.14%14.47%-19.43%1.98%-8.07%4.13%
201773.20%2.04%$23,659$12,4671.20%2.38%1.21%1.85%1.44%-0.41%4.97%0.46%8.05%7.69%-2.43%12.56%-19.89%
2017832.23%0.29%$31,283$12,504-0.24%1.81%0.15%-1.05%0.07%-1.52%-0.51%0.89%-2.13%139.29%10.13%5.04%-1.40%
20179-6.48%2.06%$29,255$12,7610.71%-0.34%1.34%5.16%1.81%7.88%4.47%-0.48%65.22%-30.15%-7.29%-1.06%11.75%
2017106.88%2.32%$31,267$13,0570.51%-0.34%1.36%1.99%1.90%1.13%0.97%0.01%0.66%18.00%-0.53%13.74%11.29%
20171120.08%3.06%$37,546$13,456-0.64%0.83%1.17%2.95%3.41%4.04%-0.52%-0.14%89.54%83.62%1.73%5.50%7.68%
2017128.33%1.10%$40,675$13,6051.16%2.27%0.65%2.34%0.13%-0.64%1.92%0.49%-16.90%32.54%5.04%1.18%-1.24%
20181-1.45%5.71%$40,086$14,3821.35%2.02%3.74%4.99%4.85%2.24%6.83%-1.15%-8.71%-29.63%-9.77%27.70%26.28%
20182-1.28%-3.69%$39,571$13,850-0.53%-3.21%-4.15%-5.04%-4.20%-5.52%-5.77%-0.93%50.91%14.37%-9.57%-6.16%-8.21%
20183-9.54%-2.56%$35,795$13,496-0.29%-0.17%-0.60%-2.23%-0.71%1.10%-3.41%0.58%37.65%-41.17%8.44%-13.42%1.79%
201849.71%0.37%$39,270$13,5470.60%0.05%0.50%2.18%1.01%-1.39%2.27%-0.84%-9.19%51.10%-6.71%-0.42%1.79%
20185-0.45%2.39%$39,094$13,8710.54%1.92%0.34%0.75%0.56%1.46%-4.44%0.67%38.07%-22.52%5.27%17.00%1.80%
20186-6.26%0.61%$36,646$13,955-0.01%-0.94%-0.99%-0.36%1.04%0.57%-2.84%-0.04%17.45%-30.54%1.49%2.18%-13.82%
201875.65%3.71%$38,715$14,4730.83%-0.29%1.61%4.16%5.02%0.58%2.92%0.14%-11.59%22.16%-4.70%7.56%-8.16%
201882.02%3.25%$39,495$14,9430.81%0.10%-0.66%0.79%2.63%1.87%-4.90%0.50%-17.82%-8.83%3.36%17.69%-3.19%
20189-5.70%0.55%$37,245$15,0250.29%-0.27%0.36%-0.00%0.09%-2.93%1.24%-0.57%-0.82%-16.42%-8.77%-1.60%-4.40%
201810-11.86%-6.85%$32,828$13,996-2.51%-3.95%-4.56%-7.74%-5.35%-12.45%-9.72%-0.75%-6.39%-15.11%-9.11%-26.61%-8.38%
201811-4.98%2.03%$31,192$14,280-1.19%0.66%0.69%1.48%4.15%-0.24%-1.40%0.60%18.94%-25.96%4.76%-2.91%-9.43%
201812-8.35%-9.04%$28,587$12,989-2.54%-2.14%-4.78%-10.70%-8.31%-13.52%-5.98%1.87%-12.41%-20.54%17.93%-26.84%-14.98%
201918.07%8.00%$30,893$14,0284.01%6.10%7.19%9.29%6.36%11.07%8.70%1.04%52.85%0.63%0.41%26.92%21.45%
201924.04%3.20%$32,140$14,4771.47%1.34%2.07%2.59%4.15%5.07%2.70%-0.13%25.45%11.78%-4.52%8.57%-0.85%
201936.32%1.94%$34,171$14,7580.78%0.47%0.43%-0.22%2.30%-3.42%-2.32%2.01%1.76%7.17%17.00%11.05%-15.50%
2019411.96%4.04%$38,257$15,3542.14%0.75%2.04%5.00%3.92%5.38%6.99%-0.02%8.78%38.28%-6.56%16.64%30.89%
2019512.73%-6.36%$43,127$14,377-1.37%-2.84%-4.49%-8.22%-4.47%-7.34%-10.31%1.80%51.10%67.32%21.11%-24.01%1.59%
2019614.37%7.03%$49,325$15,3881.09%4.77%6.33%6.71%6.85%9.08%7.71%1.17%20.17%36.80%1.90%23.00%7.38%
20197-0.32%1.43%$49,169$15,6070.42%0.65%-0.12%1.34%1.88%-1.62%-2.25%0.31%54.42%-9.85%0.32%6.20%10.05%
201981.78%-1.59%$50,046$15,3590.15%0.57%-0.86%-5.31%-0.08%-5.64%-3.02%2.60%5.40%-14.08%35.11%-7.79%0.13%
20199-2.75%1.86%$48,669$15,645-0.09%-0.65%1.90%4.04%0.50%3.26%4.67%-0.62%-25.08%-9.64%-9.07%1.88%5.67%
2019102.67%2.15%$49,967$15,982-0.62%1.33%1.16%1.35%0.31%1.50%5.46%0.30%-12.60%5.00%-4.11%12.43%-2.91%

Returns Based Style Analysis

Returns Based Style Analysis
Style CategoryVanguard 500 Index Investor
Large-cap Value45.86%
Large-cap Growth53.14%
Mid-cap Value0.00%
Mid-cap Growth1.01%
Small-cap Value0.00%
Small-cap Growth0.00%
Global ex-US Developed Markets0.00%
Emerging Markets0.00%
REITs0.00%
Corporate Bonds0.00%
Long-Term Treasuries0.00%
Intermediate-Term Treasuries0.00%
Short-Term Treasuries0.00%
R Squared99.97%
Style analysis is based on monthly returns from Jan 2016 to Oct 2019 and uses total portfolio return with monthly rebalancing. Returns based style analysis aims to explain the portfolio returns based on asset class exposures, it does not identify the actual portfolio holdings.

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1
TickerNameCategoryDurationERWeightReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
WHIYXIvy High Income YHigh Yield Bond2.600.95%3.90%$1990.13%
PRPFXPermanent Portfolio Permanent I30% to 50% Equity0.84%2.60%$1470.13%
SGENXFirst Eagle Global AWorld Allocation1.11%2.60%$1690.15%
ACSTXInvesco Comstock ALarge Value0.81%7.90%$7010.35%
PRBLXParnassus Core Equity InvestorLarge Blend0.87%6.60%$8720.38%
HSCSXHomestead Small Company StockSmall Blend0.99%4.40%$73.830.20%
OAKIXOakmark International InvestorForeign Large Blend0.96%1.30%$57.050.09%
FXNAXFidelity US Bond IndexIntermediate Core Bond5.640.03%9.90%$3970.20%
ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc.Technology / Semiconductors0.20%$275-0.05%
GBTCGrayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)Miscellaneous2.00%21.20%$24,42588.80%
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETFLeveraged Debt1.09%18.70%$3,9463.19%
TQQQProShares UltraPro QQQLeveraged Equity0.95%17.40%$7,9476.09%
CASHMeta Financial Group, Inc.Finance / Savings Institutions3.30%$7590.34%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Fixed Income Credit Quality

Fixed Income Maturity

Fund fundamentals data as of 11/05/2019. © 2019 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The fund fundamentals information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1Vanguard 500 Index Investor
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)4.08%1.08%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)61.67%13.77%
Geometric Mean (monthly)3.56%1.02%
Geometric Mean (annualized)52.15%13.01%
Volatility (monthly)11.30%3.38%
Volatility (annualized)39.16%11.72%
Downside Deviation (monthly)3.52%2.19%
Max. Drawdown-29.72%-13.55%
US Market Correlation0.231.00
Beta(*)0.831.00
Alpha (annualized)38.21%0.00%
R26.21%100.00%
Sharpe Ratio1.221.00
Sortino Ratio3.851.51
Treynor Ratio (%)57.4011.75
Calmar Ratio1.861.09
Active Return39.14%N/A
Tracking Error37.97%N/A
Information Ratio1.03N/A
Skewness2.49-0.85
Excess Kurtosis9.751.65
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-9.24%-6.68%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-14.31%-4.48%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-10.70%-7.94%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)242.81100.00
Downside Capture Ratio (%)53.91100.00
Safe Withdrawal Rate72.47%40.05%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate39.88%12.09%
Positive Periods30 out of 46 (65.22%)37 out of 46 (80.43%)
Gain/Loss Ratio1.800.57
* Vanguard 500 Index Investor is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 2018Dec 20181 yearMay 20195 months1 year 5 months-29.72%
2Jan 2016Jan 20161 monthMar 20162 months3 months-8.68%
3Sep 2017Sep 20171 monthNov 20172 months3 months-6.48%
4Jun 2017Jun 20171 monthAug 20172 months3 months-4.68%
5Nov 2016Nov 20161 monthDec 20161 month2 months-4.07%
6Sep 2019Sep 20191 month-2.75%
7Aug 2016Aug 20161 monthOct 20162 months3 months-2.37%
8Jul 2019Jul 20191 monthAug 20191 month2 months-0.32%

Drawdowns for Vanguard 500 Index Investor

Drawdowns for Vanguard 500 Index Investor
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Oct 2018Dec 20183 monthsApr 20194 months7 months-13.55%
2May 2019May 20191 monthJun 20191 month2 months-6.36%
3Feb 2018Mar 20182 monthsJul 20184 months6 months-6.16%
4Jan 2016Feb 20162 monthsMar 20161 month3 months-5.11%
5Oct 2016Oct 20161 monthNov 20161 month2 months-1.83%
6Aug 2019Aug 20191 monthSep 20191 month2 months-1.59%

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
TickerNameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
WHIYXIvy High Income Y7.65%5.12%16.74%-2.71%-6.13%1.212.290.75
PRPFXPermanent Portfolio Permanent I7.12%7.43%12.90%-6.23%-8.08%0.801.470.65
SGENXFirst Eagle Global A7.84%8.56%16.23%-8.51%-11.81%0.781.280.88
ACSTXInvesco Comstock A9.54%14.66%17.83%-12.24%-16.41%0.610.900.93
PRBLXParnassus Core Equity Investor12.77%10.52%23.37%-0.18%-9.61%1.081.700.95
HSCSXHomestead Small Company Stock3.66%17.47%18.85%-26.18%-27.80%0.220.320.88
OAKIXOakmark International Investor6.31%16.85%29.75%-23.43%-28.32%0.370.540.75
FXNAXFidelity US Bond Index3.81%3.22%8.74%0.03%-3.50%0.811.37-0.18
ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc.56.27%97.41%310.78%-71.23%-78.35%0.861.980.15
GBTCGrayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)106.33%170.78%1,557.21%-82.10%-82.10%0.923.200.02
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF13.55%35.90%52.86%-11.01%-46.99%0.490.90-0.34
TQQQProShares UltraPro QQQ40.13%46.05%118.06%-19.80%-48.71%0.951.540.89
CASHMeta Financial Group, Inc.21.75%39.01%126.10%-36.81%-49.96%0.661.220.43

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
TickerNameWHIYXPRPFXSGENXACSTXPRBLXHSCSXOAKIXFXNAXENPHGBTCTMFTQQQCASHPortfolio 1Vanguard 500 Index Investor
WHIYXIvy High Income Y-0.580.770.750.660.670.71-0.070.040.08-0.260.690.460.250.74
PRPFXPermanent Portfolio Permanent I0.58-0.830.540.580.540.530.320.120.070.150.560.140.260.65
SGENXFirst Eagle Global A0.770.83-0.840.830.770.83-0.020.080.07-0.220.770.410.270.89
ACSTXInvesco Comstock A0.750.540.84-0.870.910.79-0.390.16-0.04-0.540.740.550.120.92
PRBLXParnassus Core Equity Investor0.660.580.830.87-0.810.69-0.130.170.01-0.260.820.370.220.95
HSCSXHomestead Small Company Stock0.670.540.770.910.81-0.69-0.290.24-0.06-0.410.660.560.100.86
OAKIXOakmark International Investor0.710.530.830.790.690.69--0.26-0.060.01-0.460.720.440.160.75
FXNAXFidelity US Bond Index-0.070.32-0.02-0.39-0.13-0.29-0.26--0.020.140.93-0.11-0.370.25-0.17
ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc.0.040.120.080.160.170.24-0.06-0.02--0.13-0.000.020.10-0.090.12
GBTCGrayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)0.080.070.07-0.040.01-0.060.010.14-0.13-0.120.070.040.960.03
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF-0.260.15-0.22-0.54-0.26-0.41-0.460.93-0.000.12--0.28-0.390.19-0.33
TQQQProShares UltraPro QQQ0.690.560.770.740.820.660.72-0.110.020.07-0.28-0.300.300.90
CASHMeta Financial Group, Inc.0.460.140.410.550.370.560.44-0.370.100.04-0.390.30-0.100.42

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1
WHIYXIvy High Income Y$199
PRPFXPermanent Portfolio Permanent I$147
SGENXFirst Eagle Global A$169
ACSTXInvesco Comstock A$701
PRBLXParnassus Core Equity Investor$872
HSCSXHomestead Small Company Stock$73.83
OAKIXOakmark International Investor$57.05
FXNAXFidelity US Bond Index$397
ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc.$275
GBTCGrayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)$24,425
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF$3,946
TQQQProShares UltraPro QQQ$7,947
CASHMeta Financial Group, Inc.$759

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1
WHIYXIvy High Income Y0.13%
PRPFXPermanent Portfolio Permanent I0.13%
SGENXFirst Eagle Global A0.15%
ACSTXInvesco Comstock A0.35%
PRBLXParnassus Core Equity Investor0.38%
HSCSXHomestead Small Company Stock0.20%
OAKIXOakmark International Investor0.09%
FXNAXFidelity US Bond Index0.20%
ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc.-0.05%
GBTCGrayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)88.80%
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF3.19%
TQQQProShares UltraPro QQQ6.09%
CASHMeta Financial Group, Inc.0.34%

Annual Asset Returns