Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks. You can analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, style exposures, and drawdowns. The results cover both returns and fund fundamentals based portfolio style analysis along with risk and return decomposition by each portfolio asset. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

The related asset class level portfolio modeling tool allows you to analyze and compare asset class level portfolios with a longer time horizon starting from 1972.

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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2012 - Aug 2020)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Ticker Name Allocation
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 100.00%
Save portfolio »
Portfolio 2
Ticker Name Allocation
VYM Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF 100.00%
Save portfolio »
Portfolio 3
Ticker Name Allocation
HDV iShares Core High Dividend ETF 100.00%
Save portfolio »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$10,000$33,010 14.77% 12.89%32.31%-4.56%-19.43% 1.091.711.00
Portfolio 2$10,000$24,150 10.71% 12.13%30.08%-9.02%-23.98% 0.851.240.94
Portfolio 3$10,000$20,639 8.72% 12.46%23.59%-11.50%-26.06% 0.681.020.84
   

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
Name3 MonthYTD1 year3 year5 yearFull
Portfolio 115.29%9.68%21.86%14.37%14.33%14.77%
Portfolio 25.55%-9.02%0.67%5.21%8.90%10.71%
Portfolio 32.06%-11.50%-4.73%4.00%7.42%8.72%
Trailing returns are for full months ending in August 2020 excluding portfolio cashflows.
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • The annual results for 2020 are based on monthly returns from January to August
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdown analysis is calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationReturnBalanceSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM)iShares Core High Dividend ETF (HDV)
Portfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3Portfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
20121.74%15.99%12.69%9.67%$11,599$11,269$10,96715.99%12.69%9.67%
20131.50%32.31%30.08%23.59%$15,346$14,659$13,55332.31%30.08%23.59%
20140.76%13.46%13.52%12.56%$17,412$16,641$15,25613.46%13.52%12.56%
20150.73%1.25%0.28%-0.26%$17,630$16,687$15,2161.25%0.28%-0.26%
20162.07%12.00%17.05%15.86%$19,746$19,532$17,62912.00%17.05%15.86%
20172.11%21.70%16.42%13.41%$24,031$22,738$19,99321.70%16.42%13.41%
20181.91%-4.56%-5.91%-2.98%$22,936$21,393$19,398-4.56%-5.91%-2.98%
20192.29%31.22%24.07%20.23%$30,097$26,543$23,32231.22%24.07%20.23%
20200.83%9.68%-9.02%-11.50%$33,010$24,150$20,6399.68%-9.02%-11.50%
Annual returns for 2020 are based on partial year data
Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
YearMonthReturnBalanceSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM)iShares Core High Dividend ETF (HDV)
Portfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3Portfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
201214.64%1.77%-1.71%$10,464$10,177$9,8294.64%1.77%-1.71%
201224.34%3.15%3.06%$10,918$10,497$10,1304.34%3.15%3.06%
201233.22%2.71%2.59%$11,269$10,782$10,3923.22%2.71%2.59%
20124-0.67%-0.02%1.42%$11,194$10,779$10,539-0.67%-0.02%1.42%
20125-6.01%-4.66%-1.57%$10,522$10,277$10,374-6.01%-4.66%-1.57%
201264.05%4.98%4.98%$10,948$10,789$10,8914.05%4.98%4.98%
201271.18%2.14%3.34%$11,077$11,020$11,2541.18%2.14%3.34%
201282.51%0.77%-1.73%$11,355$11,105$11,0602.51%0.77%-1.73%
201292.54%2.56%1.95%$11,643$11,390$11,2752.54%2.56%1.95%
201210-1.82%-0.99%-0.87%$11,431$11,277$11,177-1.82%-0.99%-0.87%
2012110.57%-0.34%-0.73%$11,496$11,238$11,0960.57%-0.34%-0.73%
2012120.90%0.27%-1.16%$11,599$11,269$10,9670.90%0.27%-1.16%
201315.12%5.65%5.57%$12,193$11,906$11,5775.12%5.65%5.57%
201321.28%2.07%2.05%$12,348$12,152$11,8141.28%2.07%2.05%
201333.80%3.61%4.12%$12,817$12,591$12,3013.80%3.61%4.12%
201341.92%3.01%4.93%$13,064$12,970$12,9071.92%3.01%4.93%
201352.36%0.73%-2.25%$13,372$13,064$12,6172.36%0.73%-2.25%
20136-1.34%-0.13%-0.22%$13,193$13,047$12,589-1.34%-0.13%-0.22%
201375.17%4.47%3.39%$13,875$13,631$13,0165.17%4.47%3.39%
20138-3.00%-3.91%-3.67%$13,459$13,098$12,538-3.00%-3.91%-3.67%
201393.17%2.35%1.15%$13,885$13,406$12,6823.17%2.35%1.15%
2013104.63%4.75%5.19%$14,528$14,043$13,3404.63%4.75%5.19%
2013112.96%2.31%0.96%$14,959$14,367$13,4682.96%2.31%0.96%
2013122.59%2.03%0.63%$15,346$14,659$13,5532.59%2.03%0.63%
20141-3.52%-4.00%-3.81%$14,805$14,073$13,036-3.52%-4.00%-3.81%
201424.55%3.61%3.27%$15,479$14,581$13,4634.55%3.61%3.27%
201430.83%2.48%3.20%$15,608$14,943$13,8940.83%2.48%3.20%
201440.70%2.11%3.29%$15,717$15,258$14,3510.70%2.11%3.29%
201452.32%1.58%0.57%$16,081$15,499$14,4332.32%1.58%0.57%
201462.06%2.02%2.39%$16,413$15,813$14,7772.06%2.02%2.39%
20147-1.34%-1.67%-2.18%$16,193$15,548$14,456-1.34%-1.67%-2.18%
201483.95%3.76%3.36%$16,832$16,132$14,9423.95%3.76%3.36%
20149-1.38%-1.16%-0.48%$16,599$15,944$14,870-1.38%-1.16%-0.48%
2014102.36%2.47%1.85%$16,990$16,338$15,1442.36%2.47%1.85%
2014112.75%3.03%1.94%$17,457$16,833$15,4392.75%3.03%1.94%
201412-0.26%-1.14%-1.18%$17,412$16,641$15,256-0.26%-1.14%-1.18%
20151-2.96%-2.88%-1.91%$16,897$16,162$14,965-2.96%-2.88%-1.91%
201525.62%4.90%3.41%$17,846$16,953$15,4755.62%4.90%3.41%
20153-1.57%-1.83%-2.49%$17,565$16,643$15,090-1.57%-1.83%-2.49%
201540.98%1.70%2.91%$17,738$16,925$15,5290.98%1.70%2.91%
201551.29%0.37%-0.75%$17,966$16,989$15,4121.29%0.37%-0.75%
20156-2.03%-2.65%-3.01%$17,601$16,538$14,948-2.03%-2.65%-3.01%
201572.26%1.05%1.45%$17,999$16,712$15,1652.26%1.05%1.45%
20158-6.10%-5.66%-4.86%$16,902$15,766$14,427-6.10%-5.66%-4.86%
20159-2.54%-1.56%-0.99%$16,472$15,521$14,284-2.54%-1.56%-0.99%
2015108.51%8.41%8.11%$17,873$16,826$15,4428.51%8.41%8.11%
2015110.37%0.22%-1.13%$17,939$16,863$15,2670.37%0.22%-1.13%
201512-1.72%-1.05%-0.34%$17,630$16,687$15,216-1.72%-1.05%-0.34%
20161-4.98%-2.82%0.11%$16,753$16,217$15,232-4.98%-2.82%0.11%
20162-0.08%0.51%0.97%$16,739$16,299$15,380-0.08%0.51%0.97%
201636.72%6.64%6.05%$17,864$17,381$16,3106.72%6.64%6.05%
201640.39%0.72%1.08%$17,935$17,507$16,4860.39%0.72%1.08%
201651.70%1.39%1.60%$18,240$17,751$16,7501.70%1.39%1.60%
201660.35%2.18%3.41%$18,304$18,138$17,3210.35%2.18%3.41%
201673.65%2.35%0.73%$18,971$18,564$17,4473.65%2.35%0.73%
201680.12%-0.30%-1.08%$18,994$18,508$17,2590.12%-0.30%-1.08%
201690.01%-0.40%0.14%$18,995$18,435$17,2840.01%-0.40%0.14%
201610-1.73%-1.28%-2.46%$18,666$18,200$16,858-1.73%-1.28%-2.46%
2016113.68%4.23%1.30%$19,354$18,969$17,0773.68%4.23%1.30%
2016122.03%2.97%3.23%$19,746$19,532$17,6292.03%2.97%3.23%
201711.79%-0.04%-0.73%$20,100$19,524$17,5001.79%-0.04%-0.73%
201723.93%3.58%3.74%$20,889$20,222$18,1543.93%3.58%3.74%
201730.13%-0.30%-0.14%$20,916$20,161$18,1290.13%-0.30%-0.14%
201740.99%-0.08%-0.72%$21,123$20,145$17,9990.99%-0.08%-0.72%
201751.41%0.36%1.37%$21,421$20,218$18,2461.41%0.36%1.37%
201760.64%1.13%-0.66%$21,558$20,447$18,1250.64%1.13%-0.66%
201772.06%1.61%1.66%$22,001$20,777$18,4262.06%1.61%1.66%
201780.29%-0.18%-0.44%$22,065$20,740$18,3460.29%-0.18%-0.44%
201792.01%3.02%3.02%$22,510$21,366$18,9002.01%3.02%3.02%
2017102.36%1.74%-0.31%$23,040$21,738$18,8412.36%1.74%-0.31%
2017113.06%3.07%3.72%$23,744$22,405$19,5423.06%3.07%3.72%
2017121.21%1.49%2.31%$24,031$22,738$19,9931.21%1.49%2.31%
201815.64%4.11%2.32%$25,386$23,672$20,4575.64%4.11%2.32%
20182-3.64%-4.72%-6.61%$24,463$22,554$19,104-3.64%-4.72%-6.61%
20183-2.74%-2.17%-0.98%$23,792$22,066$18,917-2.74%-2.17%-0.98%
201840.52%0.13%-0.02%$23,915$22,095$18,9120.52%0.13%-0.02%
201852.43%1.60%0.31%$24,496$22,448$18,9702.43%1.60%0.31%
201860.58%-0.29%1.26%$24,637$22,382$19,2100.58%-0.29%1.26%
201873.70%4.09%3.93%$25,550$23,299$19,9653.70%4.09%3.93%
201883.19%1.11%1.23%$26,366$23,557$20,2113.19%1.11%1.23%
201890.59%0.40%2.14%$26,523$23,652$20,6440.59%0.40%2.14%
201810-6.91%-4.40%-2.21%$24,690$22,612$20,188-6.91%-4.40%-2.21%
2018111.85%3.56%4.26%$25,148$23,416$21,0471.85%3.56%4.26%
201812-8.79%-8.64%-7.84%$22,936$21,393$19,398-8.79%-8.64%-7.84%
201918.01%6.10%4.82%$24,773$22,699$20,3348.01%6.10%4.82%
201923.24%3.77%4.32%$25,576$23,555$21,2123.24%3.77%4.32%
201931.81%0.53%2.00%$26,038$23,678$21,6361.81%0.53%2.00%
201944.09%2.84%2.26%$27,102$24,350$22,1264.09%2.84%2.26%
20195-6.38%-6.31%-6.17%$25,373$22,813$20,760-6.38%-6.31%-6.17%
201966.96%6.65%6.42%$27,139$24,329$22,0936.96%6.65%6.42%
201971.51%0.72%-0.21%$27,550$24,505$22,0461.51%0.72%-0.21%
20198-1.67%-2.10%-1.74%$27,088$23,990$21,663-1.67%-2.10%-1.74%
201991.95%3.90%2.54%$27,616$24,925$22,2141.95%3.90%2.54%
2019102.21%1.05%0.62%$28,227$25,187$22,3512.21%1.05%0.62%
2019113.62%2.34%1.42%$29,248$25,777$22,6693.62%2.34%1.42%
2019122.90%2.97%2.88%$30,097$26,543$23,3222.90%2.97%2.88%
20201-0.04%-2.51%-4.13%$30,085$25,878$22,358-0.04%-2.51%-4.13%
20202-7.92%-9.70%-9.91%$27,704$23,368$20,142-7.92%-9.70%-9.91%
20203-12.46%-13.64%-14.39%$24,251$20,180$17,244-12.46%-13.64%-14.39%
2020412.70%10.26%14.27%$27,330$22,250$19,70512.70%10.26%14.27%
202054.76%2.83%2.63%$28,632$22,881$20,2234.76%2.83%2.63%
202061.78%-0.76%-2.25%$29,141$22,706$19,7671.78%-0.76%-2.25%
202075.89%3.07%2.56%$30,857$23,404$20,2745.89%3.07%2.56%
202086.98%3.19%1.80%$33,010$24,150$20,6396.98%3.19%1.80%

Returns Based Style Analysis

Returns Based Style Analysis
Style CategoryPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
Large-cap Value45.35%82.68%84.52%
Large-cap Growth54.47%8.90%0.00%
Mid-cap Value0.00%0.00%0.00%
Mid-cap Growth0.00%0.00%0.00%
Small-cap Value0.18%0.00%0.00%
Small-cap Growth0.00%0.00%0.00%
Global ex-US Developed Markets0.00%0.00%0.00%
Emerging Markets0.00%0.00%0.00%
Corporate Bonds0.00%0.00%0.00%
Long-Term Treasuries0.00%5.10%15.48%
Intermediate-Term Treasuries0.00%3.10%0.00%
Short-Term Treasuries0.00%0.22%0.00%
R Squared99.95%95.28%79.47%
Style analysis is based on monthly returns from Jan 2012 to Aug 2020 and uses total portfolio return with monthly rebalancing. Returns based style analysis aims to explain the portfolio returns based on asset class exposures, it does not identify the actual portfolio holdings.

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1
TickerNameCategoryWeightERP/EReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustLarge Blend100.00%0.09%26.67$23,010100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 2

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 2
TickerNameCategoryWeightERP/EReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
VYMVanguard High Dividend Yield ETFLarge Value100.00%0.06%18.43$14,150100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Fixed Income Maturity

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 3

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 3
TickerNameCategoryWeightERP/EReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
HDViShares Core High Dividend ETFLarge Value100.00%0.08%20.24$10,639100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Fund fundamentals data as of 09/28/2020. (c) 2020 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The fund fundamentals information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)1.22%0.91%0.76%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)15.72%11.53%9.56%
Geometric Mean (monthly)1.15%0.85%0.70%
Geometric Mean (annualized)14.77%10.71%8.72%
Volatility (monthly)3.72%3.50%3.60%
Volatility (annualized)12.89%12.13%12.46%
Downside Deviation (monthly)2.33%2.35%2.37%
Max. Drawdown-19.43%-23.98%-26.06%
US Market Correlation1.000.940.84
Beta(*)0.960.860.78
Alpha (annualized)0.80%-1.44%-2.10%
R299.26%89.26%69.90%
Sharpe Ratio1.090.850.68
Sortino Ratio1.711.241.02
Treynor Ratio (%)14.6112.0110.92
Calmar Ratio0.740.220.15
Active Return0.32%-3.75%-5.74%
Tracking Error1.23%4.41%7.45%
Information Ratio0.26-0.85-0.77
Skewness-0.67-1.02-0.61
Excess Kurtosis2.173.174.35
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-6.31%-5.43%-5.85%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-4.90%-4.85%-5.15%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-8.49%-8.79%-8.98%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)99.1382.0069.57
Downside Capture Ratio (%)96.1793.8784.78
Safe Withdrawal Rate21.73%20.67%18.95%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate12.37%8.88%7.07%
Positive Periods77 out of 104 (74.04%)69 out of 104 (66.35%)63 out of 104 (60.58%)
Gain/Loss Ratio0.831.021.17
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 2020Mar 20203 monthsJul 20204 months7 months-19.43%
2Oct 2018Dec 20183 monthsApr 20194 months7 months-13.52%
3Aug 2015Sep 20152 monthsMay 20168 months10 months-8.48%
4Apr 2012May 20122 monthsAug 20123 months5 months-6.63%
5May 2019May 20191 monthJun 20191 month2 months-6.38%
6Feb 2018Mar 20182 monthsJul 20184 months6 months-6.28%
7Jan 2014Jan 20141 monthFeb 20141 month2 months-3.52%
8Dec 2014Jan 20152 monthsFeb 20151 month3 months-3.21%
9Aug 2013Aug 20131 monthSep 20131 month2 months-3.00%
10Jun 2015Jun 20151 monthJul 20151 month2 months-2.03%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 2020Mar 20203 months-23.98%
2Feb 2018Dec 201811 monthsMar 20193 months1 year 2 months-9.63%
3Jun 2015Sep 20154 monthsMar 20166 months10 months-8.64%
4May 2019May 20191 monthJul 20192 months3 months-6.31%
5Apr 2012May 20122 monthsJun 20121 month3 months-4.68%
6Jan 2014Jan 20141 monthMar 20142 months3 months-4.00%
7Dec 2014Jan 20152 monthsFeb 20151 month3 months-3.99%
8Aug 2013Aug 20131 monthOct 20132 months3 months-3.91%
9Aug 2019Aug 20191 monthSep 20191 month2 months-2.10%
10Aug 2016Oct 20163 monthsNov 20161 month4 months-1.96%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Portfolio 3

Drawdowns for Portfolio 3 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 2020Mar 20203 months-26.06%
2May 2015Sep 20155 monthsMar 20166 months11 months-8.02%
3Dec 2018Dec 20181 monthFeb 20192 months3 months-7.84%
4Feb 2018Apr 20183 monthsSep 20185 months8 months-7.55%
5May 2019May 20191 monthSep 20194 months5 months-6.17%
6Jan 2014Jan 20141 monthMar 20142 months3 months-3.81%
7Aug 2013Aug 20131 monthOct 20132 months3 months-3.67%
8Aug 2016Oct 20163 monthsDec 20162 months5 months-3.37%
9Dec 2014Jan 20152 monthsFeb 20151 month3 months-3.07%
10Oct 2012Dec 20123 monthsJan 20131 month4 months-2.74%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
TickerNameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust14.77%12.89%32.31%-4.56%-19.43%1.091.711.00
VYMVanguard High Dividend Yield ETF10.71%12.13%30.08%-9.02%-23.98%0.851.240.94
HDViShares Core High Dividend ETF8.72%12.46%23.59%-11.50%-26.06%0.681.020.84

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
TickerNameSPYVYMHDVPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust1.000.950.851.000.950.85
VYMVanguard High Dividend Yield ETF0.951.000.940.951.000.94
HDViShares Core High Dividend ETF0.850.941.000.850.941.00

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust$23,010
VYMVanguard High Dividend Yield ETF$14,150
HDViShares Core High Dividend ETF$10,639

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust100.00%
VYMVanguard High Dividend Yield ETF100.00%
HDViShares Core High Dividend ETF100.00%

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
AverageHighLowAverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year15.42%32.31%-4.56%13.52%30.08%-5.91%11.51%23.59%-2.98%
3 years13.27%20.31%8.77%12.15%18.50%8.63%10.58%15.12%8.43%
5 years12.55%15.68%8.37%11.76%15.07%7.85%10.27%12.76%7.43%
7 years13.59%14.59%12.59%12.25%13.02%11.48%10.65%11.38%9.93%
Result statistics are based on annualized rolling returns over full calendar year periods