Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks. You can analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, style exposures, and drawdowns. The results cover both returns and fund fundamentals based portfolio style analysis along with risk and return decomposition by each portfolio asset. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

The related asset class level portfolio modeling tool allows you to analyze and compare asset class level portfolios with a longer time horizon starting from 1972.

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Portfolio Assets 
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Asset 3
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Asset 6
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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2010 - Dec 2019)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Ticker Name Allocation
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P500 33.00%
EDV Vanguard Extended Duration Trs ETF 67.00%
Save portfolio »
Portfolio 2
Ticker Name Allocation
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P500 33.00%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF 18.00%
ILTB iShares Core 10+ Year USD Bond ETF 49.00%
Save portfolio »
Portfolio 3
Ticker Name Allocation
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P500 35.00%
EDV Vanguard Extended Duration Trs ETF 65.00%
Save portfolio »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$10,000$67,628 21.06% 13.05%44.60%-7.71%-13.26% 1.502.860.40
Portfolio 2$10,000$66,449 20.85% 13.12%48.60%-9.91%-13.51% 1.482.730.56
Portfolio 3$10,000$71,002 21.65% 13.21%46.22%-8.06%-13.20% 1.522.890.47
   

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
NameAnnualized ReturnAnnualized Volatility
3 Month1 year3 year5 year10 yearFull3 year5 year
Portfolio 14.49%44.60%20.51%13.64%21.06%21.06%12.72%13.77%
Portfolio 25.73%48.60%20.72%14.18%20.85%20.85%13.41%14.14%
Portfolio 35.15%46.22%21.14%14.13%21.65%21.65%13.10%14.03%
Trailing annualized return and volatility are for full months ending in December 2019 excluding portfolio cashflows.
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdown analysis is calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The results assume quarterly rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3ProShares UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO)Vanguard Extended Duration Trs ETF (EDV)Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (TMF)iShares Core 10+ Year USD Bond ETF (ILTB)
ReturnBalanceReturnBalanceReturnBalance
20101.50%27.07%$12,70728.29%$12,82927.91%$12,79136.34%9.87%16.20%9.12%
20112.96%42.92%$18,16034.29%$17,22841.84%$18,143-11.88%56.08%109.14%21.50%
20121.74%19.60%$21,71922.94%$21,18020.57%$21,87646.80%2.37%0.60%8.72%
20131.50%15.17%$25,01516.60%$24,69617.60%$25,726118.49%-19.86%-39.01%-9.32%
20140.76%42.63%$35,67938.62%$34,23342.50%$36,66038.00%44.66%97.34%20.62%
20150.73%-3.17%$34,547-4.27%$32,772-3.13%$35,514-5.24%-4.84%-13.73%-4.22%
20162.07%11.86%$38,64415.26%$37,77412.46%$39,94030.79%1.65%-2.52%7.82%
20172.11%31.14%$50,67931.40%$49,63532.24%$52,81571.37%13.96%22.73%11.24%
20181.91%-7.71%$46,771-9.91%$44,716-8.06%$48,557-25.15%-3.39%-11.01%-5.09%
20192.29%44.60%$67,62848.60%$66,44946.22%$71,002102.31%18.68%34.74%19.61%
Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
YearMonthPortfolio 1 ReturnPortfolio 2 ReturnPortfolio 3 ReturnProShares UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO)Vanguard Extended Duration Trs ETF (EDV)Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (TMF)iShares Core 10+ Year USD Bond ETF (ILTB)
20101-1.80%-1.82%-2.08%-11.19%2.83%7.34%1.12%
201022.15%1.64%2.33%8.94%-0.74%-1.82%-1.32%
201033.17%4.92%3.63%18.90%-4.17%-6.73%0.30%
201045.40%4.45%5.36%4.08%6.05%9.96%2.67%
20105-2.20%-3.41%-2.85%-24.15%8.41%16.54%2.90%
201062.02%1.42%1.59%-16.58%8.31%16.73%3.66%
201075.49%6.94%5.95%21.17%-2.24%-3.90%1.34%
201082.89%1.52%2.34%-13.46%12.88%25.94%5.09%
201095.94%6.83%6.57%27.94%-4.37%-9.02%-0.55%
201010-2.35%-0.12%-1.93%11.44%-9.14%-13.57%-2.96%
201011-1.47%-1.86%-1.45%-0.82%-1.87%-6.03%-1.29%
2010125.52%5.33%6.07%21.36%-4.15%-11.63%-1.86%
20111-1.99%-0.01%-1.73%6.56%-6.20%-9.40%-0.99%
201125.46%4.86%5.62%10.39%2.70%4.49%0.97%
20113-0.37%-0.38%-0.39%-0.80%-0.12%-0.55%0.02%
201144.97%4.94%5.08%8.73%3.12%6.57%1.79%
201152.43%1.99%2.23%-3.93%5.73%10.36%3.03%
20116-4.83%-4.34%-4.86%-5.87%-4.33%-7.39%-2.05%
201171.91%2.17%1.66%-6.39%5.99%13.28%3.85%
201185.02%1.33%4.30%-21.09%16.37%27.34%4.52%
2011913.66%9.16%12.95%-20.69%23.80%41.35%7.12%
2011106.29%8.38%7.07%32.61%-6.68%-12.87%-0.12%
2011110.65%-1.20%0.50%-3.35%3.46%4.89%-1.22%
2011124.22%3.77%4.15%2.30%5.48%9.46%3.13%
201213.56%5.04%3.87%13.90%-1.53%-1.50%1.47%
201222.71%2.92%3.06%13.24%-3.28%-7.95%-1.01%
20123-0.26%0.41%0.09%9.29%-6.63%-13.02%-2.81%
201243.71%3.45%3.53%-2.38%6.72%14.37%3.36%
201254.32%2.96%3.71%-17.35%14.08%28.90%5.33%
201261.13%1.43%1.37%11.47%-2.24%-5.78%-0.00%
201275.06%5.27%5.01%3.52%5.81%11.43%4.18%
201280.41%0.80%0.59%6.53%-2.54%-4.61%-0.91%
20129-0.05%0.88%0.18%7.52%-4.04%-7.87%-0.59%
201210-2.23%-2.29%-2.34%-5.96%-0.39%-2.13%0.12%
2012111.54%1.46%1.52%1.01%1.78%3.90%0.86%
201212-1.58%-1.19%-1.45%2.82%-3.61%-7.80%-1.29%
201311.71%1.40%2.12%15.39%-5.03%-9.58%-3.98%
201322.31%2.73%2.35%3.56%1.55%3.39%1.82%
201333.75%3.85%3.99%11.03%-0.70%-1.77%-0.10%
201346.71%6.59%6.67%5.45%7.32%14.25%4.53%
20135-4.37%-4.36%-4.04%6.80%-9.77%-19.65%-5.81%
20136-4.81%-6.19%-4.82%-5.23%-4.57%-10.33%-5.51%
201373.00%4.57%3.40%16.41%-3.61%-7.41%1.01%
20138-4.15%-5.14%-4.32%-9.21%-1.14%-4.47%-2.19%
201393.12%4.19%3.33%9.60%-0.41%1.53%1.17%
2013105.81%6.38%6.04%13.76%1.89%4.12%2.23%
2013110.33%0.86%0.60%8.87%-4.37%-8.19%-1.76%
2013121.63%1.64%1.83%7.54%-2.07%-6.01%-0.59%
201412.97%1.96%2.56%-10.72%9.71%19.47%4.07%
201424.16%5.47%4.40%13.65%0.35%1.63%2.36%
201431.99%1.61%1.99%2.15%1.91%1.76%1.21%
201442.52%2.59%2.49%1.65%2.94%5.96%1.99%
201454.92%5.01%4.97%6.62%4.10%8.79%2.47%
201461.90%2.17%2.03%6.22%-0.25%-1.00%0.62%
20147-0.47%-1.08%-0.59%-4.44%1.48%1.61%0.20%
201488.55%7.94%8.65%11.95%6.97%14.42%2.94%
20149-3.45%-3.74%-3.48%-4.44%-2.97%-6.65%-2.04%
2014104.80%4.40%4.84%6.03%4.19%8.06%1.95%
2014115.68%4.89%5.76%8.34%4.34%9.08%0.84%
2014122.98%2.41%2.84%-1.54%5.33%9.38%2.43%
201516.42%5.43%5.95%-9.47%14.25%31.01%6.06%
20152-1.65%-0.73%-1.16%17.48%-9.12%-17.87%-3.42%
20153-0.81%-1.04%-0.94%-5.28%1.45%2.57%0.52%
20154-2.91%-2.30%-2.74%2.59%-5.62%-10.30%-2.65%
20155-1.17%-1.32%-1.03%3.43%-3.64%-7.91%-2.46%
20156-6.12%-5.79%-6.12%-6.21%-6.07%-12.49%-3.33%
201576.75%6.00%6.74%6.17%7.04%13.40%3.17%
20158-6.72%-7.63%-7.08%-18.87%-0.79%-2.75%-1.81%
20159-0.87%-1.01%-1.07%-8.64%2.23%5.10%0.92%
2015108.57%8.99%9.11%26.79%-0.41%-1.73%0.94%
201511-0.57%-0.36%-0.52%0.81%-1.43%-2.71%-0.51%
201512-2.84%-3.33%-2.95%-6.06%-0.77%-2.41%-1.30%
201610.57%-0.78%0.10%-15.38%8.43%17.74%2.24%
201622.48%2.63%2.37%-1.68%4.07%8.71%2.46%
201635.59%7.17%5.98%21.50%-0.19%-0.64%3.01%
20164-0.47%0.54%-0.44%0.81%-1.10%-2.39%1.44%
201652.24%1.94%2.31%4.65%1.02%1.86%0.16%
201666.33%6.51%6.12%-0.20%9.72%21.23%5.92%
201675.92%5.38%6.08%11.13%3.35%6.07%1.25%
20168-0.92%-0.45%-0.89%0.11%-1.47%-3.58%0.34%
20169-1.71%-1.47%-1.67%-0.54%-2.34%-4.78%-0.94%
201610-6.00%-5.68%-5.99%-5.62%-6.18%-13.32%-2.91%
201611-4.02%-3.30%-3.57%11.05%-11.49%-23.91%-5.94%
2016122.09%2.63%2.23%5.96%-0.31%-0.99%1.02%
201712.53%2.32%2.61%5.14%1.25%1.49%0.73%
201725.32%5.75%5.52%11.91%1.95%4.41%1.91%
20173-0.70%-0.69%-0.69%-0.22%-0.97%-2.35%-0.42%
201742.15%2.51%2.17%2.77%1.84%4.43%1.63%
201753.36%2.81%3.37%3.70%3.20%5.17%1.31%
201761.34%1.42%1.35%1.51%1.26%1.98%1.13%
201771.09%1.70%1.24%5.87%-1.26%-2.43%0.41%
201783.27%2.85%3.18%0.21%4.89%10.13%2.13%
20179-0.32%0.11%-0.14%5.69%-3.35%-7.29%-0.93%
2017102.32%2.29%2.45%6.83%0.09%-0.53%0.27%
2017113.94%3.56%4.10%8.87%1.35%1.73%0.42%
2017123.27%3.13%3.27%3.45%3.16%5.04%2.16%
201813.15%3.35%3.60%18.22%-4.27%-9.77%-1.84%
20182-7.79%-8.23%-7.98%-13.53%-4.29%-9.57%-3.47%
20183-0.43%-1.11%-0.69%-8.69%4.12%8.44%1.38%
20184-1.90%-2.33%-1.85%-0.14%-2.77%-6.71%-2.21%
201853.72%3.60%3.80%6.46%2.33%5.27%1.04%
201861.33%0.42%1.33%1.29%1.35%1.49%-0.60%
201872.06%2.94%2.32%10.73%-2.21%-4.70%0.50%
201884.31%4.08%4.47%9.09%1.65%3.36%0.60%
20189-2.12%-1.41%-2.00%1.20%-4.10%-8.77%-0.88%
201810-9.94%-10.22%-10.27%-20.78%-4.61%-9.11%-3.52%
2018112.79%2.40%2.83%4.28%2.18%4.76%0.54%
201812-2.03%-2.65%-2.68%-26.25%8.08%17.93%3.47%
201918.00%9.38%8.48%23.89%0.18%0.41%2.90%
201922.42%2.41%2.65%9.28%-1.77%-4.52%-0.68%
201936.43%6.58%6.37%4.85%7.50%17.00%4.53%
201941.89%2.37%2.19%11.81%-3.00%-6.56%-0.72%
20195-0.63%-1.41%-1.23%-18.89%9.74%21.11%4.07%
201966.85%8.18%7.24%21.37%0.75%1.90%2.91%
201971.55%1.70%1.62%3.80%0.44%0.32%0.78%
201988.02%7.45%7.57%-6.62%15.47%35.11%7.10%
20199-0.94%-1.32%-0.77%5.30%-3.50%-9.07%-1.75%
2019100.55%1.06%0.70%5.70%-1.99%-4.11%-0.16%
2019113.67%3.55%3.89%10.73%-0.08%-2.01%0.39%
2019120.24%1.03%0.51%8.38%-4.56%-10.05%-0.94%

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1
TickerNameCategoryWeightYieldFeesDurationReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
UPROProShares UltraPro S&P500Leveraged Equity33.00%0.10%0.93%$38,55741.98%
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Trs ETFLong Government67.00%2.15%0.07%24.28$19,07158.02%
100.00%1.47%0.35%24.28$57,628100.00%

Asset Allocation

Fixed Income Credit Quality

Fixed Income Maturity

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 2

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 2
TickerNameCategoryWeightYieldFeesDurationReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
UPROProShares UltraPro S&P500Leveraged Equity33.00%0.10%0.93%$37,17757.02%
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETFLeveraged Debt18.00%3.02%1.06%$8,93321.88%
ILTBiShares Core 10+ Year USD Bond ETFLong-Term Bond49.00%2.99%0.06%15.59$10,34021.11%
100.00%2.04%0.53%15.59$56,449100.00%

Asset Allocation

Fixed Income Credit Quality

Fixed Income Maturity

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 3

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 3
TickerNameCategoryWeightYieldFeesDurationReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
UPROProShares UltraPro S&P500Leveraged Equity35.00%0.10%0.93%$41,90850.92%
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Trs ETFLong Government65.00%2.15%0.07%24.28$19,09449.08%
100.00%1.43%0.37%24.28$61,002100.00%

Asset Allocation

Fixed Income Credit Quality

Fixed Income Maturity

Fund fundamentals data as of 03/05/2021. (c) 2021 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The fund fundamentals information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)1.68%1.66%1.72%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)22.06%21.87%22.69%
Geometric Mean (monthly)1.61%1.59%1.65%
Geometric Mean (annualized)21.06%20.85%21.65%
Volatility (monthly)3.77%3.79%3.81%
Volatility (annualized)13.05%13.12%13.21%
Downside Deviation (monthly)1.95%2.03%1.98%
Max. Drawdown-13.26%-13.51%-13.20%
US Market Correlation0.400.560.47
Beta(*)0.410.570.48
Alpha (annualized)14.66%12.29%14.19%
R216.12%31.50%21.94%
Sharpe Ratio1.501.481.52
Sortino Ratio2.862.732.89
Treynor Ratio (%)47.9933.8741.73
Calmar Ratio1.731.611.75
Active Return7.77%7.55%8.36%
Tracking Error14.18%12.17%13.45%
Information Ratio0.550.620.62
Skewness-0.24-0.43-0.31
Excess Kurtosis0.660.360.56
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-4.81%-5.16%-4.82%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-4.41%-4.56%-4.46%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-6.90%-7.29%-7.05%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)81.3091.9987.91
Downside Capture Ratio (%)10.5232.6919.21
Safe Withdrawal Rate25.93%25.29%26.43%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate15.95%15.80%16.36%
Positive Periods80 out of 120 (66.67%)82 out of 120 (68.33%)82 out of 120 (68.33%)
Gain/Loss Ratio1.511.371.41
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Feb 2015Sep 20158 monthsMay 20168 months1 year 4 months-13.26%
2Aug 2016Nov 20164 monthsMay 20176 months10 months-12.14%
3Sep 2018Oct 20182 monthsMar 20195 months7 months-11.85%
4May 2013Aug 20134 monthsJan 20145 months9 months-10.13%
5Feb 2018Apr 20183 monthsAug 20184 months7 months-9.92%
6Jun 2011Jun 20111 monthAug 20112 months3 months-4.83%
7Oct 2010Nov 20102 monthsDec 20101 month3 months-3.78%
8Sep 2014Sep 20141 monthOct 20141 month2 months-3.45%
9Sep 2012Dec 20124 monthsFeb 20132 months6 months-2.34%
10May 2010May 20101 monthJul 20102 months3 months-2.20%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Feb 2015Sep 20158 monthsMay 20168 months1 year 4 months-13.51%
2Feb 2018Dec 201811 monthsMar 20193 months1 year 2 months-12.83%
3May 2013Aug 20134 monthsDec 20134 months8 months-10.99%
4Aug 2016Nov 20164 monthsApr 20175 months9 months-10.54%
5Jun 2011Jun 20111 monthSep 20113 months4 months-4.34%
6Sep 2014Sep 20141 monthOct 20141 month2 months-3.74%
7May 2010May 20101 monthJul 20102 months3 months-3.41%
8Oct 2012Oct 20121 monthFeb 20134 months5 months-2.29%
9Oct 2010Nov 20102 monthsDec 20101 month3 months-1.97%
10Jan 2010Jan 20101 monthMar 20102 months3 months-1.82%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Portfolio 3

Drawdowns for Portfolio 3 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Feb 2015Sep 20158 monthsMay 20168 months1 year 4 months-13.20%
2Sep 2018Oct 20182 monthsMar 20195 months7 months-12.07%
3Aug 2016Nov 20164 monthsMay 20176 months10 months-11.65%
4Feb 2018Apr 20183 monthsAug 20184 months7 months-10.30%
5May 2013Aug 20134 monthsDec 20134 months8 months-9.64%
6Jun 2011Jun 20111 monthAug 20112 months3 months-4.86%
7Sep 2014Sep 20141 monthOct 20141 month2 months-3.48%
8Oct 2010Nov 20102 monthsDec 20101 month3 months-3.36%
9May 2010May 20101 monthJul 20102 months3 months-2.85%
10Oct 2012Oct 20121 monthFeb 20134 months5 months-2.34%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
TickerNameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
UPROProShares UltraPro S&P50032.83%38.43%118.49%-25.15%-47.03%0.921.520.99
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Trs ETF9.91%19.62%56.08%-19.86%-26.75%0.551.05-0.52
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF13.80%39.22%109.14%-39.01%-49.74%0.500.95-0.51
ILTBiShares Core 10+ Year USD Bond ETF7.47%8.78%21.50%-9.32%-12.08%0.801.39-0.24

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
TickerNameUPROEDVTMFILTBPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
UPROProShares UltraPro S&P5001.00-0.51-0.50-0.220.420.580.48
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Trs ETF-0.511.000.990.890.560.390.49
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF-0.500.991.000.910.550.400.49
ILTBiShares Core 10+ Year USD Bond ETF-0.220.890.911.000.710.630.66

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
UPROProShares UltraPro S&P500$38,557$37,177$41,908
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Trs ETF$19,071$19,094
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF$8,933
ILTBiShares Core 10+ Year USD Bond ETF$10,340

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
UPROProShares UltraPro S&P50041.98%57.02%50.92%
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Trs ETF58.02%49.08%
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF21.88%
ILTBiShares Core 10+ Year USD Bond ETF21.11%

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
AverageHighLowAverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year21.37%62.32%-8.49%20.93%51.71%-9.91%21.96%61.69%-8.48%
3 years19.21%31.88%8.88%18.93%30.71%9.49%19.87%32.46%9.46%
5 years19.01%31.06%13.33%18.57%29.74%12.61%19.60%31.73%13.55%
7 years19.01%22.74%14.47%18.75%22.31%14.60%19.66%23.38%15.10%