Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks. You can analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, style exposures, and drawdowns. The results cover both returns and fund fundamentals based portfolio style analysis along with risk and return decomposition by each portfolio asset. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

The related asset class level portfolio modeling tool allows you to analyze and compare asset class level portfolios with a longer time horizon starting from 1972.

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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2007 - Dec 2019)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Ticker Name Allocation
VIG Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF 100.00%
Save portfolio »
Portfolio 2
Ticker Name Allocation
VYM Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF 100.00%
Save portfolio »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$10,000$30,424 8.94% 12.79%29.62%-26.69%-41.11% 0.660.970.96
Portfolio 2$10,000$27,107 7.97% 14.00%30.08%-31.91%-51.79% 0.550.790.95
Vanguard 500 Index Investor$10,000$29,522 8.68% 14.59%32.18%-37.02%-50.97% 0.580.841.00
   

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
NameAnnualized ReturnAnnualized Volatility
3 Month1 year3 year5 year10 yearFull3 year5 year
Portfolio 14.76%29.62%15.76%11.24%12.63%8.94%11.34%11.02%
Portfolio 26.49%24.07%10.77%9.79%12.86%7.97%11.14%11.02%
Vanguard 500 Index Investor9.03%31.33%15.12%11.55%13.40%8.68%12.10%11.98%
Trailing annualized return and volatility are for full months ending in December 2019 excluding portfolio cashflows.
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdown analysis is calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
  • The annual income is calculated from the difference between monthly total returns and split adjusted monthly price changes and thus includes both dividends and capital gains distributions.
  • The annual yield as a percentage is based on the portfolio asset allocation and is not impacted by cashflows.
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Vanguard 500 Index InvestorVanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM)
ReturnBalanceYieldIncomeReturnBalanceYieldIncomeReturnBalance
20074.08%5.63%$10,5631.63%$1631.38%$10,1382.65%$2655.39%$10,5395.63%1.38%
20080.09%-26.69%$7,7441.85%$195-31.91%$6,9032.86%$290-37.02%$6,637-26.69%-31.91%
20092.72%19.57%$9,2602.46%$19117.16%$8,0883.53%$24326.49%$8,39519.57%17.16%
20101.50%14.74%$10,6242.25%$20914.22%$9,2382.90%$23514.91%$9,64714.74%14.22%
20112.96%6.16%$11,2792.25%$23910.54%$10,2123.18%$2941.97%$9,8376.16%10.54%
20121.74%11.65%$12,5932.60%$29412.69%$11,5083.56%$36415.82%$11,39311.65%12.69%
20131.50%28.87%$16,2282.35%$29630.08%$14,9703.58%$41232.18%$15,05928.87%30.08%
20140.76%10.08%$17,8632.12%$34513.52%$16,9943.10%$46313.51%$17,09410.08%13.52%
20150.73%-1.95%$17,5152.26%$4040.28%$17,0413.16%$5381.25%$17,307-1.95%0.28%
20162.07%11.97%$19,6122.37%$41517.05%$19,9463.34%$57011.82%$19,35211.97%17.05%
20172.11%22.22%$23,9702.27%$44516.42%$23,2213.21%$63921.67%$23,54522.22%16.42%
20181.91%-2.08%$23,4722.01%$482-5.91%$21,8483.13%$727-4.52%$22,480-2.08%-5.91%
20192.29%29.62%$30,4242.19%$51524.07%$27,1073.69%$80631.33%$29,52229.62%24.07%
Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
YearMonthPortfolio 1 ReturnPortfolio 2 ReturnVanguard 500 Index Investor ReturnVanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM)
200711.56%0.56%1.49%1.56%0.56%
20072-1.74%-1.56%-1.97%-1.74%-1.56%
200730.28%1.24%1.11%0.28%1.24%
200744.44%4.23%4.42%4.44%4.23%
200752.48%3.01%3.48%2.48%3.01%
20076-1.60%-2.06%-1.68%-1.60%-2.06%
20077-2.52%-3.38%-3.08%-2.52%-3.38%
200782.30%1.92%1.50%2.30%1.92%
200793.43%3.57%3.72%3.43%3.57%
200710-0.33%-0.31%1.58%-0.33%-0.31%
200711-2.03%-3.41%-4.19%-2.03%-3.41%
200712-0.49%-2.05%-0.70%-0.49%-2.05%
20081-5.27%-3.27%-6.02%-5.27%-3.27%
20082-1.55%-4.79%-3.25%-1.55%-4.79%
200832.03%1.00%-0.44%2.03%1.00%
200842.57%2.20%4.85%2.57%2.20%
200850.33%-0.12%1.29%0.33%-0.12%
20086-7.86%-10.32%-8.44%-7.86%-10.32%
200871.06%1.94%-0.83%1.06%1.94%
200882.08%1.74%1.45%2.08%1.74%
20089-6.72%-4.69%-8.91%-6.72%-4.69%
200810-14.11%-14.85%-16.79%-14.11%-14.85%
200811-2.55%-5.54%-7.17%-2.55%-5.54%
2008120.88%0.57%1.07%0.88%0.57%
20091-7.62%-12.98%-8.41%-7.62%-12.98%
20092-10.52%-13.65%-10.66%-10.52%-13.65%
200937.03%9.63%8.76%7.03%9.63%
200947.29%10.26%9.56%7.29%10.26%
200954.95%5.80%5.62%4.95%5.80%
200960.49%-0.29%0.22%0.49%-0.29%
200976.56%8.56%7.58%6.56%8.56%
200982.41%4.90%3.60%2.41%4.90%
200993.15%2.89%3.72%3.15%2.89%
200910-0.43%-2.70%-1.87%-0.43%-2.70%
2009115.79%6.07%5.98%5.79%6.07%
2009120.73%1.11%1.95%0.73%1.11%
20101-2.30%-3.08%-3.60%-2.30%-3.08%
201022.42%2.44%3.09%2.42%2.44%
201034.62%5.51%6.01%4.62%5.51%
201042.17%1.69%1.58%2.17%1.69%
20105-7.24%-7.88%-8.01%-7.24%-7.88%
20106-4.34%-4.30%-5.24%-4.34%-4.30%
201076.38%7.30%7.00%6.38%7.30%
20108-3.44%-3.33%-4.53%-3.44%-3.33%
201098.31%7.40%8.92%8.31%7.40%
2010102.83%3.29%3.79%2.83%3.29%
2010110.30%-0.55%0.00%0.30%-0.55%
2010125.34%6.28%6.67%5.34%6.28%
201111.43%1.44%2.36%1.43%1.44%
201123.41%3.50%3.42%3.41%3.50%
201131.06%0.71%0.03%1.06%0.71%
201143.49%4.02%2.95%3.49%4.02%
20115-1.27%-0.59%-1.15%-1.27%-0.59%
20116-0.77%-1.10%-1.67%-0.77%-1.10%
20117-3.46%-2.73%-2.05%-3.46%-2.73%
20118-3.20%-2.83%-5.45%-3.20%-2.83%
20119-6.26%-4.21%-7.04%-6.26%-4.21%
2011109.60%8.07%10.91%9.60%8.07%
2011111.87%1.26%-0.23%1.87%1.26%
2011121.00%3.19%1.02%1.00%3.19%
201212.60%1.77%4.46%2.60%1.77%
201222.76%3.15%4.31%2.76%3.15%
201232.09%2.71%3.28%2.09%2.71%
20124-0.34%-0.02%-0.64%-0.34%-0.02%
20125-4.37%-4.66%-6.02%-4.37%-4.66%
201262.18%4.98%4.11%2.18%4.98%
201271.96%2.14%1.37%1.96%2.14%
201281.90%0.77%2.24%1.90%0.77%
201291.87%2.56%2.58%1.87%2.56%
201210-1.26%-0.99%-1.86%-1.26%-0.99%
2012111.44%-0.34%0.56%1.44%-0.34%
2012120.47%0.27%0.90%0.47%0.27%
201315.93%5.65%5.18%5.93%5.65%
201321.16%2.07%1.34%1.16%2.07%
201333.38%3.61%3.74%3.38%3.61%
201341.67%3.01%1.91%1.67%3.01%
201351.15%0.73%2.33%1.15%0.73%
20136-1.51%-0.13%-1.35%-1.51%-0.13%
201375.41%4.47%5.07%5.41%4.47%
20138-3.57%-3.91%-2.91%-3.57%-3.91%
201393.97%2.35%3.12%3.97%2.35%
2013104.17%4.75%4.59%4.17%4.75%
2013112.32%2.31%3.03%2.32%2.31%
2013121.96%2.03%2.51%1.96%2.03%
20141-5.01%-4.00%-3.47%-5.01%-4.00%
201424.90%3.61%4.56%4.90%3.61%
201430.79%2.48%0.82%0.79%2.48%
201441.01%2.11%0.72%1.01%2.11%
201451.61%1.58%2.33%1.61%1.58%
201461.49%2.02%2.05%1.49%2.02%
20147-3.31%-1.67%-1.39%-3.31%-1.67%
201483.65%3.76%3.98%3.65%3.76%
20149-1.00%-1.16%-1.41%-1.00%-1.16%
2014102.65%2.47%2.42%2.65%2.47%
2014113.22%3.03%2.68%3.22%3.03%
2014120.11%-1.14%-0.26%0.11%-1.14%
20151-3.38%-2.88%-3.02%-3.38%-2.88%
201525.59%4.90%5.74%5.59%4.90%
20153-2.27%-1.83%-1.59%-2.27%-1.83%
20154-0.21%1.70%0.95%-0.21%1.70%
201550.96%0.37%1.27%0.96%0.37%
20156-2.54%-2.65%-1.93%-2.54%-2.65%
201572.16%1.05%2.08%2.16%1.05%
20158-5.87%-5.66%-6.05%-5.87%-5.66%
20159-1.84%-1.56%-2.48%-1.84%-1.56%
2015106.74%8.41%8.42%6.74%8.41%
2015110.27%0.22%0.29%0.27%0.22%
201512-0.87%-1.05%-1.59%-0.87%-1.05%
20161-2.29%-2.82%-4.98%-2.29%-2.82%
201621.13%0.51%-0.15%1.13%0.51%
201636.28%6.64%6.78%6.28%6.64%
20164-0.33%0.72%0.37%-0.33%0.72%
201650.95%1.39%1.78%0.95%1.39%
201662.37%2.18%0.25%2.37%2.18%
201672.29%2.35%3.68%2.29%2.35%
201680.01%-0.30%0.13%0.01%-0.30%
20169-0.97%-0.40%0.01%-0.97%-0.40%
201610-1.93%-1.28%-1.83%-1.93%-1.28%
2016112.98%4.23%3.70%2.98%4.23%
2016121.17%2.97%1.96%1.17%2.97%
201711.76%-0.04%1.88%1.76%-0.04%
201724.33%3.58%3.96%4.33%3.58%
20173-0.07%-0.30%0.10%-0.07%-0.30%
201741.72%-0.08%1.02%1.72%-0.08%
201751.57%0.36%1.39%1.57%0.36%
201760.28%1.13%0.61%0.28%1.13%
201770.73%1.61%2.04%0.73%1.61%
20178-0.36%-0.18%0.29%-0.36%-0.18%
201792.38%3.02%2.06%2.38%3.02%
2017102.10%1.74%2.32%2.10%1.74%
2017114.48%3.07%3.06%4.48%3.07%
2017121.44%1.49%1.10%1.44%1.49%
201815.02%4.11%5.71%5.02%4.11%
20182-4.03%-4.72%-3.69%-4.03%-4.72%
20183-1.35%-2.17%-2.56%-1.35%-2.17%
20184-0.93%0.13%0.37%-0.93%0.13%
201851.77%1.60%2.39%1.77%1.60%
201860.30%-0.29%0.61%0.30%-0.29%
201874.68%4.09%3.71%4.68%4.09%
201882.80%1.11%3.25%2.80%1.11%
201891.68%0.40%0.55%1.68%0.40%
201810-6.36%-4.40%-6.85%-6.36%-4.40%
2018114.14%3.56%2.03%4.14%3.56%
201812-8.73%-8.64%-9.04%-8.73%-8.64%
201916.32%6.10%8.00%6.32%6.10%
201924.58%3.77%3.20%4.58%3.77%
201931.14%0.53%1.94%1.14%0.53%
201943.72%2.84%4.04%3.72%2.84%
20195-4.63%-6.31%-6.36%-4.63%-6.31%
201966.63%6.65%7.03%6.63%6.65%
201972.23%0.72%1.43%2.23%0.72%
201980.59%-2.10%-1.59%0.59%-2.10%
201991.45%3.90%1.86%1.45%3.90%
2019100.03%1.05%2.15%0.03%1.05%
2019112.45%2.34%3.62%2.45%2.34%
2019122.22%2.97%3.01%2.22%2.97%

Returns Based Style Analysis

Returns Based Style Analysis
Style CategoryPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Vanguard 500 Index Investor
Large-cap Value43.64%83.69%46.97%
Large-cap Growth42.34%6.40%52.91%
Mid-cap Value0.00%0.00%0.00%
Mid-cap Growth0.00%0.00%0.00%
Small-cap Value0.00%0.00%0.00%
Small-cap Growth0.30%0.00%0.00%
Global ex-US Developed Markets0.00%0.00%0.00%
Emerging Markets0.00%0.00%0.00%
Corporate Bonds0.00%0.00%0.00%
Long-Term Treasuries2.67%9.92%0.06%
Intermediate-Term Treasuries11.06%0.00%0.06%
Short-Term Treasuries0.00%0.00%0.00%
R Squared94.19%95.84%99.93%
Style analysis is based on monthly returns from January 2007 to December 2019 and uses total portfolio return with monthly rebalancing. Returns based style analysis aims to explain the portfolio returns based on asset class exposures, it does not identify the actual portfolio holdings.

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1
TickerNameCategoryWeightYieldFeesP/EReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
VIGVanguard Dividend Appreciation ETFLarge Blend100.00%1.67%0.06%26.72$20,424100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 2

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 2
TickerNameCategoryWeightYieldFeesP/EReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
VYMVanguard High Dividend Yield ETFLarge Value100.00%3.17%0.06%20.06$17,107100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Fund fundamentals data as of 02/26/2021. (c) 2021 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The fund fundamentals information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Vanguard 500 Index Investor
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)0.78%0.72%0.79%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)9.83%9.04%9.85%
Geometric Mean (monthly)0.72%0.64%0.70%
Geometric Mean (annualized)8.94%7.97%8.68%
Volatility (monthly)3.69%4.04%4.21%
Volatility (annualized)12.79%14.00%14.59%
Downside Deviation (monthly)2.51%2.81%2.90%
Max. Drawdown-41.11%-51.79%-50.97%
US Market Correlation0.960.951.00
Beta(*)0.850.921.00
Alpha (annualized)1.42%0.03%-0.00%
R293.61%91.54%100.00%
Sharpe Ratio0.660.550.58
Sortino Ratio0.970.790.84
Treynor Ratio (%)10.048.488.53
Calmar Ratio1.431.121.12
Active Return0.25%-0.71%N/A
Tracking Error3.92%4.25%N/A
Information Ratio0.06-0.17N/A
Skewness-0.82-0.92-0.79
Excess Kurtosis1.682.421.73
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-6.28%-5.57%-7.08%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-5.29%-5.93%-6.14%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-8.64%-10.03%-9.68%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)86.3189.85100.00
Downside Capture Ratio (%)80.9890.64100.00
Safe Withdrawal Rate9.52%8.75%8.82%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate6.48%5.65%6.27%
Positive Periods105 out of 156 (67.31%)98 out of 156 (62.82%)105 out of 156 (67.31%)
Gain/Loss Ratio0.840.950.77
* Vanguard 500 Index Investor is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEndPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Vanguard 500 Index Investor
Subprime CrisisNov 2007Mar 2009-40.92%-51.59%-50.97%

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Oct 2007Feb 20091 year 5 monthsFeb 20112 years3 years 5 months-41.11%
2May 2011Sep 20115 monthsFeb 20125 months10 months-14.18%
3Oct 2018Dec 20183 monthsMar 20193 months6 months-11.00%
4Mar 2015Sep 20157 monthsMar 20166 months1 year 1 month-9.41%
5Feb 2018Apr 20183 monthsJul 20183 months6 months-6.20%
6Jan 2014Jan 20141 monthMar 20142 months3 months-5.01%
7Apr 2012May 20122 monthsAug 20123 months5 months-4.70%
8May 2019May 20191 monthJun 20191 month2 months-4.63%
9Jun 2007Jul 20072 monthsSep 20072 months4 months-4.08%
10Aug 2013Aug 20131 monthSep 20131 month2 months-3.57%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jun 2007Feb 20091 year 9 monthsMar 20123 years 1 month4 years 10 months-51.79%
2Feb 2018Dec 201811 monthsMar 20193 months1 year 2 months-9.63%
3Jun 2015Sep 20154 monthsMar 20166 months10 months-8.64%
4May 2019May 20191 monthJul 20192 months3 months-6.31%
5Apr 2012May 20122 monthsJun 20121 month3 months-4.68%
6Jan 2014Jan 20141 monthMar 20142 months3 months-4.00%
7Dec 2014Jan 20152 monthsFeb 20151 month3 months-3.99%
8Aug 2013Aug 20131 monthOct 20132 months3 months-3.91%
9Aug 2019Aug 20191 monthSep 20191 month2 months-2.10%
10Aug 2016Oct 20163 monthsNov 20161 month4 months-1.96%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Vanguard 500 Index Investor

Drawdowns for Vanguard 500 Index Investor (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsAug 20123 years 6 months4 years 10 months-50.97%
2Oct 2018Dec 20183 monthsApr 20194 months7 months-13.55%
3Aug 2015Sep 20152 monthsMay 20168 months10 months-8.38%
4May 2019May 20191 monthJun 20191 month2 months-6.36%
5Feb 2018Mar 20182 monthsJul 20184 months6 months-6.16%
6Jun 2007Jul 20072 monthsSep 20072 months4 months-4.71%
7Jan 2014Jan 20141 monthFeb 20141 month2 months-3.47%
8Dec 2014Jan 20152 monthsFeb 20151 month3 months-3.27%
9Aug 2013Aug 20131 monthSep 20131 month2 months-2.91%
10Feb 2007Feb 20071 monthApr 20072 months3 months-1.97%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
TickerNameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
VIGVanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF8.94%12.79%29.62%-26.69%-41.11%0.660.970.96
VYMVanguard High Dividend Yield ETF7.97%14.00%30.08%-31.91%-51.79%0.550.790.95

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
TickerNameVIGVYMPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Vanguard 500 Index Investor
VIGVanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF1.000.951.000.950.97
VYMVanguard High Dividend Yield ETF0.951.000.951.000.96

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
VIGVanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF$20,424
VYMVanguard High Dividend Yield ETF$17,107

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
VIGVanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF100.00%
VYMVanguard High Dividend Yield ETF100.00%

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Vanguard 500 Index Investor
AverageHighLowAverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year9.43%44.75%-35.02%8.89%54.80%-44.44%9.50%53.61%-43.32%
3 years10.44%22.93%-5.88%10.70%27.37%-10.34%10.92%25.43%-9.84%
5 years10.77%20.36%1.55%11.50%23.48%-0.50%11.54%22.85%-1.00%
7 years11.07%15.27%6.14%11.84%18.12%5.23%11.93%17.12%5.27%
10 years10.32%15.09%6.97%10.50%16.58%6.73%10.73%16.52%6.82%