Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected mutual funds, ETFs and stocks to analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, standard deviation, annual returns and rolling returns. The results include a visualization of the portfolio growth chart and rolling returns, CAGR, standard deviation, Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, annual returns and inflation adjusted returns. A periodic contribution or withdrawal can also be specified together with the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy. You can also analyze and compare asset class based lazy portfolios with a longer time horizon starting from 1972.

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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2010 - Nov 2019)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Ticker Name Allocation
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 120.00%
CASHX Cash -20.00%
Save portfolio »
Portfolio 2
Ticker Name Allocation
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P500 40.00%
CASHX Cash 60.00%
Save portfolio »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$10,000$42,308 15.66% 14.90%38.77%-5.80%-19.16% 1.021.691.00
Portfolio 2$10,000$38,690 14.62% 15.87%47.40%-8.98%-21.54% 0.911.450.98
   
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • The annual results for 2019 are based on full calendar months from January to November
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (1-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdowns are calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The backtested results include annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationReturnBalanceSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)Cash (CASHX)ProShares UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO)
Portfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 1Portfolio 2
20101.50%18.05%14.60%$11,805$11,46015.06%0.10%36.34%
20112.96%2.26%-4.73%$12,071$10,9181.89%0.04%-11.88%
20121.74%19.18%18.75%$14,386$12,96615.99%0.06%46.80%
20131.50%38.77%47.40%$19,963$19,11132.31%0.00%118.49%
20140.76%16.15%15.20%$23,188$22,01613.46%0.00%38.00%
20150.73%1.50%-2.09%$23,536$21,5551.25%0.01%-5.24%
20162.07%14.36%12.44%$26,915$24,23712.00%0.21%30.79%
20172.11%25.87%29.03%$33,878$31,27221.70%0.79%71.37%
20181.91%-5.80%-8.98%$31,913$28,465-4.56%1.80%-25.15%
20192.43%32.57%35.92%$42,308$38,69027.52%2.09%86.67%
Annual returns for 2019 are based on partial year data
Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
YearMonthReturnBalanceSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)Cash (CASHX)ProShares UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO)
Portfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 1Portfolio 2
20101-4.36%-4.48%$9,564$9,552-3.63%0.00%-11.19%
201023.77%3.32%$9,925$9,8703.12%0.00%8.94%
201037.32%7.42%$10,651$10,6026.09%0.01%18.90%
201041.84%1.78%$10,846$10,7901.55%0.01%4.08%
20105-9.41%-10.71%$9,825$9,634-7.95%0.01%-24.15%
20106-6.23%-6.24%$9,213$9,033-5.17%0.01%-16.58%
201078.31%7.11%$9,979$9,6756.83%0.01%21.17%
20108-5.40%-5.10%$9,440$9,181-4.50%0.01%-13.46%
2010910.85%9.68%$10,464$10,0708.96%0.01%27.94%
2010104.55%4.63%$10,940$10,5363.82%0.01%11.44%
201011-0.00%-0.35%$10,940$10,4990.00%0.01%-0.82%
2010127.90%9.15%$11,805$11,4606.68%0.01%21.36%
201112.79%2.63%$12,134$11,7612.33%0.01%6.56%
201124.15%4.32%$12,638$12,2693.47%0.01%10.39%
201130.01%-0.34%$12,639$12,2270.01%0.01%-0.80%
201143.44%3.82%$13,073$12,6942.90%0.00%8.73%
20115-1.32%-1.80%$12,900$12,465-1.12%0.00%-3.93%
20116-2.00%-2.63%$12,643$12,137-1.69%0.00%-5.87%
20117-2.37%-2.77%$12,343$11,801-2.00%0.00%-6.39%
20118-6.55%-8.79%$11,534$10,764-5.50%0.01%-21.09%
20119-8.37%-7.47%$10,569$9,960-6.94%0.00%-20.69%
20111013.35%10.09%$11,980$10,96410.91%0.00%32.61%
201111-0.49%-1.25%$11,922$10,827-0.41%0.00%-3.35%
2011121.25%0.84%$12,071$10,9181.04%0.00%2.30%
201215.56%5.56%$12,743$11,5254.64%0.00%13.90%
201225.16%5.71%$13,401$12,1834.34%0.00%13.24%
201233.80%4.30%$13,909$12,7073.22%0.00%9.29%
20124-0.78%-1.15%$13,800$12,560-0.67%0.00%-2.38%
20125-7.06%-8.30%$12,826$11,518-6.01%0.01%-17.35%
201264.82%4.95%$13,444$12,0884.05%0.00%11.47%
201271.40%1.61%$13,632$12,2831.18%0.00%3.52%
201282.95%3.05%$14,033$12,6572.51%0.01%6.53%
201292.97%3.63%$14,450$13,1172.54%0.01%7.52%
201210-2.13%-2.98%$14,143$12,726-1.82%0.01%-5.96%
2012110.66%0.50%$14,236$12,7890.57%0.01%1.01%
2012121.05%1.38%$14,386$12,9660.90%0.01%2.82%
201316.14%6.16%$15,270$13,7645.12%0.00%15.39%
201321.52%1.55%$15,501$13,9771.28%0.00%3.56%
201334.50%4.89%$16,199$14,6613.80%0.00%11.03%
201342.26%2.56%$16,566$15,0361.92%0.00%5.45%
201352.77%3.28%$17,025$15,5292.36%0.00%6.80%
20136-1.56%-2.61%$16,759$15,124-1.34%0.00%-5.23%
201376.05%7.97%$17,774$16,3305.17%0.00%16.41%
20138-3.48%-4.82%$17,154$15,542-3.00%0.00%-9.21%
201393.70%4.79%$17,789$16,2873.17%0.00%9.60%
2013105.38%7.19%$18,746$17,4584.63%0.00%13.76%
2013113.42%4.92%$19,387$18,3172.96%0.00%8.87%
2013122.97%4.34%$19,963$19,1112.59%0.00%7.54%
20141-4.23%-4.29%$19,119$18,292-3.52%0.00%-10.72%
201425.50%5.09%$20,171$19,2234.55%0.00%13.65%
201431.00%0.87%$20,372$19,3900.83%0.00%2.15%
201440.83%0.68%$20,541$19,5210.70%0.00%1.65%
201452.77%2.73%$21,110$20,0552.32%0.00%6.62%
201462.45%2.67%$21,628$20,5892.06%0.00%6.22%
20147-1.59%-1.97%$21,284$20,184-1.34%0.00%-4.44%
201484.69%5.16%$22,282$21,2263.95%0.00%11.95%
20149-1.63%-2.04%$21,919$20,793-1.38%0.00%-4.44%
2014102.78%2.71%$22,529$21,3562.36%0.00%6.03%
2014113.23%3.86%$23,258$22,1812.75%0.00%8.34%
201412-0.30%-0.74%$23,188$22,016-0.26%0.00%-1.54%
20151-3.56%-3.79%$22,364$21,182-2.96%0.00%-9.47%
201526.79%6.58%$23,881$22,5765.62%0.00%17.48%
20153-1.88%-2.19%$23,432$22,081-1.57%0.00%-5.28%
201541.18%1.04%$23,708$22,3110.98%0.00%2.59%
201551.54%1.40%$24,073$22,6241.29%0.00%3.43%
20156-2.42%-2.58%$23,490$22,039-2.03%0.00%-6.21%
201572.70%2.47%$24,126$22,5842.26%0.00%6.17%
20158-7.27%-7.83%$22,373$20,816-6.10%0.00%-18.87%
20159-3.07%-3.16%$21,686$20,159-2.54%0.00%-8.64%
20151010.33%9.23%$23,925$22,0218.51%0.00%26.79%
2015110.44%0.33%$24,029$22,0920.37%0.00%0.81%
201512-2.05%-2.43%$23,536$21,555-1.72%0.01%-6.06%
20161-5.98%-6.15%$22,130$20,231-4.98%0.01%-15.38%
20162-0.10%-0.59%$22,106$20,111-0.08%0.02%-1.68%
201638.15%7.68%$23,909$21,6556.72%0.02%21.50%
201640.47%0.33%$24,021$21,7270.39%0.01%0.81%
201652.03%1.89%$24,509$22,1371.70%0.01%4.65%
201660.41%-0.07%$24,610$22,1210.35%0.02%-0.20%
201674.34%4.63%$25,679$23,1453.65%0.02%11.13%
201680.14%0.06%$25,714$23,1590.12%0.02%0.11%
201690.01%-0.23%$25,716$23,1070.01%0.02%-0.54%
201610-2.05%-2.46%$25,187$22,538-1.73%0.02%-5.62%
2016114.37%4.70%$26,288$23,5993.68%0.01%11.05%
2016122.39%2.70%$26,915$24,2372.03%0.03%5.96%
201712.14%2.08%$27,491$24,7411.79%0.04%5.14%
201724.69%4.93%$28,781$25,9603.93%0.04%11.91%
201730.14%-0.08%$28,822$25,9400.13%0.03%-0.22%
201741.17%1.24%$29,159$26,2620.99%0.05%2.77%
201751.66%1.68%$29,643$26,7041.41%0.06%3.70%
201760.74%0.72%$29,863$26,8960.64%0.06%1.51%
201772.41%2.73%$30,584$27,6302.06%0.07%5.87%
201780.33%0.15%$30,684$27,6700.29%0.09%0.21%
201792.35%2.73%$31,405$28,4262.01%0.09%5.69%
2017102.74%3.37%$32,267$29,3832.36%0.09%6.83%
2017113.55%4.49%$33,414$30,7043.06%0.08%8.87%
2017121.39%1.85%$33,878$31,2721.21%0.09%3.45%
201816.74%7.35%$36,162$33,5715.64%0.11%18.22%
20182-4.34%-5.90%$34,593$31,591-3.64%0.11%-13.53%
20183-3.30%-3.44%$33,451$30,502-2.74%0.12%-8.69%
201840.59%0.03%$33,649$30,5130.52%0.14%-0.14%
201852.89%2.56%$34,622$31,2932.43%0.14%6.46%
201860.66%0.59%$34,851$31,4790.58%0.14%1.29%
201874.39%4.38%$36,383$32,8583.70%0.16%10.73%
201883.76%3.94%$37,749$34,1543.19%0.16%9.09%
201890.67%0.62%$38,004$34,3650.59%0.15%1.20%
201810-8.18%-9.19%$34,897$31,207-6.91%0.19%-20.78%
2018112.18%1.78%$35,658$31,7621.85%0.18%4.28%
201812-10.50%-10.38%$31,913$28,465-8.79%0.19%-26.25%
201919.57%9.68%$34,966$31,2218.01%0.21%23.89%
201923.80%4.29%$36,295$32,5613.24%0.18%9.28%
201932.09%2.40%$37,054$33,3421.81%0.19%4.85%
201944.75%5.83%$38,815$35,2874.09%0.21%11.81%
20195-7.46%-9.57%$35,920$31,909-6.38%0.21%-18.89%
201968.16%9.91%$38,852$35,0726.96%0.18%21.37%
201971.73%2.02%$39,524$35,7821.51%0.19%3.80%
20198-1.97%-3.34%$38,745$34,587-1.67%0.16%-6.62%
201992.24%2.73%$39,613$35,5321.95%0.18%5.30%
2019102.54%3.00%$40,618$36,5982.21%0.18%5.70%
2019114.16%5.71%$42,308$38,6903.62%0.18%10.73%

Returns Based Style Analysis

Returns Based Style Analysis
Style CategoryPortfolio 2
Large-cap Value35.39%
Large-cap Growth49.47%
Mid-cap Value2.46%
Mid-cap Growth0.00%
Small-cap Value9.31%
Small-cap Growth0.00%
Global ex-US Developed Markets2.41%
Emerging Markets0.97%
REITs0.00%
Corporate Bonds0.00%
Long-Term Treasuries0.00%
Intermediate-Term Treasuries0.00%
Short-Term Treasuries0.00%
R Squared96.35%
Style analysis is based on monthly returns from Jan 2010 to Nov 2019 and uses total portfolio return with monthly rebalancing. Returns based style analysis aims to explain the portfolio returns based on asset class exposures, it does not identify the actual portfolio holdings.

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 2

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 2
TickerNameCategoryERWeightReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
UPROProShares UltraPro S&P500Leveraged Equity0.92%40.00%$27,838100.00%
CASHXCashCash60.00%$8520.00%

Asset Allocation

Fund fundamentals data as of 12/04/2019. (c) 2019 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The fund fundamentals information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)1.31%1.25%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)16.92%16.05%
Geometric Mean (monthly)1.22%1.14%
Geometric Mean (annualized)15.66%14.62%
Volatility (monthly)4.30%4.58%
Volatility (annualized)14.90%15.87%
Downside Deviation (monthly)2.57%2.87%
Max. Drawdown-19.16%-21.54%
US Market Correlation1.000.98
Beta(*)1.151.21
Alpha (annualized)0.56%-0.99%
R299.28%96.90%
Sharpe Ratio1.020.91
Sortino Ratio1.691.45
Treynor Ratio (%)13.2311.95
Calmar Ratio1.071.04
Active Return2.56%1.52%
Tracking Error2.31%3.90%
Information Ratio1.110.39
Skewness-0.30-0.50
Excess Kurtosis0.570.11
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-7.27%-8.30%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-5.76%-6.08%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-8.78%-9.73%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)119.08124.86
Downside Capture Ratio (%)113.94129.82
Safe Withdrawal Rate19.78%18.30%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate13.13%12.27%
Positive Periods84 out of 119 (70.59%)80 out of 119 (67.23%)
Gain/Loss Ratio0.900.96
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1May 2011Sep 20115 monthsFeb 20125 months10 months-19.16%
2Oct 2018Dec 20183 monthsApr 20194 months7 months-16.03%
3May 2010Jun 20102 monthsOct 20104 months6 months-15.06%
4Aug 2015Sep 20152 monthsMay 20168 months10 months-10.11%
5Apr 2012May 20122 monthsAug 20123 months5 months-7.79%
6Feb 2018Mar 20182 monthsJul 20184 months6 months-7.50%
7May 2019May 20191 monthJun 20191 month2 months-7.46%
8Jan 2010Jan 20101 monthMar 20102 months3 months-4.36%
9Jan 2014Jan 20141 monthFeb 20141 month2 months-4.23%
10Dec 2014Jan 20152 monthsFeb 20151 month3 months-3.84%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1May 2011Sep 20115 monthsMar 20126 months11 months-21.54%
2Oct 2018Dec 20183 monthsApr 20194 months7 months-17.17%
3May 2010Jun 20102 monthsDec 20106 months8 months-16.29%
4Jun 2015Feb 20169 monthsJul 20165 months1 year 2 months-11.11%
5May 2019May 20191 monthJul 20192 months3 months-9.57%
6Apr 2012May 20122 monthsSep 20124 months6 months-9.35%
7Feb 2018Mar 20182 monthsAug 20185 months7 months-9.14%
8Aug 2013Aug 20131 monthOct 20132 months3 months-4.82%
9Dec 2014Jan 20152 monthsFeb 20151 month3 months-4.50%
10Jan 2010Jan 20101 monthMar 20102 months3 months-4.48%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
TickerNameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust13.23%12.48%32.31%-4.56%-16.23%1.021.691.00
CASHXCash0.51%0.23%2.09%0.00%0.00%-0.42-0.54-0.01
UPROProShares UltraPro S&P50032.08%38.55%118.49%-25.15%-47.03%0.911.490.99

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
TickerNameSPYCASHXUPROPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust--0.011.001.000.99
CASHXCash-0.01--0.01-0.010.01
UPROProShares UltraPro S&P5001.00-0.01-1.000.99

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust$32,618
CASHXCash-$311$852
UPROProShares UltraPro S&P500$27,838

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust100.00%
CASHXCash0.00%0.00%
UPROProShares UltraPro S&P500100.00%

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
AverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year14.48%38.77%-5.80%13.51%47.40%-8.98%
3 years15.54%24.31%10.47%14.69%26.34%8.24%
5 years15.81%18.68%9.84%15.08%19.25%8.29%
7 years15.45%16.25%14.90%14.52%15.42%13.48%
Result statistics are based on annualized rolling returns over full calendar year periods