Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks. You can analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, style exposures, and drawdowns. The results cover both returns and fund fundamentals based portfolio style analysis along with risk and return decomposition by each portfolio asset. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy. The related asset class level portfolio modeling tool allows you to analyze and compare asset class level portfolios with a longer time horizon starting from 1972.

Time Period

Start Year

First Month

End Year

Last Month

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End Date

Initial Amount

$ .00

Cashflows

Contribution Amount

$ .00

Inflation Adjusted

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Frequency

Rebalancing

Absolute Deviation

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Display Income

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Benchmark

Benchmark Ticker

Portfolio Assets

Portfolio #1

Portfolio #2

Portfolio #3

Asset 1

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Asset 2

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Asset 3

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Asset 4

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Asset 5

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Asset 6

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Asset 7

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Asset 8

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Asset 9

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Asset 10

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Total

Total allocation for portfolio 1 %

Total allocation for portfolio 2 %

Total allocation for portfolio 3 %

Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2014 - Dec 2018)

Note: The time period was constrained by the available data for Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (BNDX) [Jul 2013 - Dec 2019]. You can extend the backtesting period by using Vanguard Total Intl Bd Idx Institutional (VTIFX), which is the oldest share class of the fund.

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Ticker	Name	Allocation
ITOT	iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt ETF	42.00%
VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-Wld ex-US ETF	18.00%
AGG	iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF	30.00%
BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond ETF	10.00%
Save portfolio »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
Portfolio	Initial Balance	Final Balance	CAGR	Stdev	Best Year	Worst Year	Max. Drawdown	Sharpe Ratio	Sortino Ratio	US Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1	$10,000	$12,688	4.88%	6.50%	15.21%	-4.40%	-7.60%	0.67	0.98	0.96

Notes on results:

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
Drawdowns are calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
The backtested results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation

Annual returns for the configured portfolios
Year	Inflation	Portfolio 1 Return	Portfolio 1 Balance	iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt ETF (ITOT)	Vanguard FTSE All-Wld ex-US ETF (VEU)	iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)	Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (BNDX)
2014	0.76%	7.53%	$10,753	13.52%	-4.54%	6.00%	8.74%
2015	0.73%	-0.22%	$10,730	0.91%	-4.78%	0.48%	1.19%
2016	2.07%	7.37%	$11,521	12.61%	4.91%	2.42%	4.61%
2017	2.11%	15.21%	$13,272	21.38%	27.39%	3.52%	2.40%
2018	1.91%	-4.40%	$12,688	-5.31%	-14.19%	0.33%	2.81%

Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
Year	Month	Portfolio 1 Return	Portfolio 1 Balance	iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt ETF (ITOT)	Vanguard FTSE All-Wld ex-US ETF (VEU)	iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)	Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (BNDX)
2014	1	-1.86%	$9,814	-3.39%	-5.80%	1.54%	1.43%
2014	2	3.01%	$10,109	4.53%	5.63%	0.38%	0.48%
2014	3	0.41%	$10,150	0.80%	0.46%	-0.15%	0.32%
2014	4	0.73%	$10,224	0.37%	1.47%	0.82%	0.60%
2014	5	1.71%	$10,398	2.23%	1.92%	1.18%	0.74%
2014	6	1.31%	$10,534	2.28%	1.68%	-0.06%	0.61%
2014	7	-1.00%	$10,429	-1.67%	-1.47%	-0.25%	0.50%
2014	8	2.38%	$10,677	4.07%	1.01%	1.15%	1.37%
2014	9	-1.81%	$10,484	-1.76%	-4.88%	-0.61%	-0.13%
2014	10	1.53%	$10,644	2.59%	0.20%	1.06%	0.60%
2014	11	1.31%	$10,783	2.49%	-0.32%	0.66%	0.91%
2014	12	-0.28%	$10,753	0.53%	-3.96%	0.15%	0.98%
2015	1	-0.42%	$10,709	-2.88%	-0.02%	2.05%	1.79%
2015	2	3.09%	$11,039	5.68%	5.85%	-0.89%	-0.18%
2015	3	-0.64%	$10,969	-1.27%	-1.41%	0.38%	0.49%
2015	4	0.94%	$11,072	0.63%	4.74%	-0.32%	-1.03%
2015	5	0.18%	$11,091	1.33%	-1.04%	-0.44%	-0.52%
2015	6	-1.74%	$10,898	-1.81%	-2.81%	-1.08%	-1.35%
2015	7	1.14%	$11,022	1.93%	-0.29%	0.86%	1.28%
2015	8	-4.17%	$10,562	-6.09%	-7.75%	-0.34%	-0.70%
2015	9	-1.47%	$10,408	-2.61%	-4.04%	0.81%	0.81%
2015	10	4.61%	$10,888	8.23%	6.69%	0.07%	0.59%
2015	11	-0.15%	$10,872	0.43%	-1.32%	-0.39%	0.19%
2015	12	-1.31%	$10,730	-1.86%	-2.52%	-0.19%	-0.14%
2016	1	-2.97%	$10,411	-5.87%	-5.60%	1.24%	1.30%
2016	2	0.03%	$10,414	0.11%	-2.44%	0.89%	1.26%
2016	3	4.69%	$10,903	7.16%	8.31%	0.88%	0.75%
2016	4	0.66%	$10,976	0.58%	2.11%	0.26%	-0.26%
2016	5	0.68%	$11,051	1.79%	-0.79%	0.01%	0.75%
2016	6	0.72%	$11,130	0.16%	-0.72%	1.94%	1.95%
2016	7	2.65%	$11,425	3.96%	4.25%	0.54%	0.82%
2016	8	0.19%	$11,447	0.30%	0.69%	-0.21%	0.07%
2016	9	0.38%	$11,490	0.19%	1.58%	0.05%	0.01%
2016	10	-1.64%	$11,302	-2.28%	-1.69%	-0.82%	-1.26%
2016	11	0.59%	$11,369	4.42%	-2.13%	-2.57%	-1.25%
2016	12	1.34%	$11,521	2.02%	1.93%	0.25%	0.43%
2017	1	1.56%	$11,700	2.01%	4.14%	0.21%	-0.98%
2017	2	2.02%	$11,936	3.57%	1.26%	0.65%	0.88%
2017	3	0.58%	$12,005	0.12%	2.99%	-0.05%	-0.03%
2017	4	1.13%	$12,141	1.00%	2.09%	0.91%	0.49%
2017	5	1.30%	$12,298	1.06%	3.05%	0.69%	0.73%
2017	6	0.44%	$12,352	0.93%	0.51%	-0.02%	-0.54%
2017	7	1.57%	$12,546	1.89%	3.38%	0.33%	0.16%
2017	8	0.53%	$12,613	0.12%	0.64%	0.94%	0.93%
2017	9	1.19%	$12,762	2.40%	1.84%	-0.57%	-0.40%
2017	10	1.44%	$12,946	2.24%	1.95%	0.10%	0.62%
2017	11	1.43%	$13,130	3.04%	0.63%	-0.15%	0.23%
2017	12	1.08%	$13,272	1.21%	2.05%	0.44%	0.27%
2018	1	2.82%	$13,647	5.22%	5.70%	-1.13%	-0.57%
2018	2	-2.88%	$13,254	-3.79%	-5.31%	-1.01%	0.26%
2018	3	-0.58%	$13,177	-1.91%	-0.44%	0.67%	1.15%
2018	4	-0.06%	$13,169	0.31%	0.57%	-0.94%	-0.14%
2018	5	0.99%	$13,300	2.80%	-1.99%	0.66%	-0.23%
2018	6	0.01%	$13,301	0.69%	-2.14%	0.10%	0.60%
2018	7	1.93%	$13,558	3.29%	2.89%	-0.03%	0.14%
2018	8	1.29%	$13,732	3.48%	-2.34%	0.57%	0.06%
2018	9	-0.06%	$13,724	0.15%	0.44%	-0.62%	-0.24%
2018	10	-4.87%	$13,055	-7.35%	-8.30%	-0.64%	0.07%
2018	11	1.28%	$13,222	1.91%	1.47%	0.52%	0.52%
2018	12	-4.04%	$12,688	-9.13%	-4.94%	2.22%	1.17%

Returns Based Style Analysis

Returns Based Style Analysis
Style Category	Portfolio 1
Large-cap Value	16.70%
Large-cap Growth	21.79%
Mid-cap Value	2.43%
Mid-cap Growth	0.00%
Small-cap Value	1.70%
Small-cap Growth	0.56%
Global ex-US Developed Markets	13.59%
Emerging Markets	4.04%
REITs	0.00%
Corporate Bonds	7.66%
Long-Term Treasuries	5.90%
Intermediate-Term Treasuries	0.00%
Short-Term Treasuries	25.63%
R Squared	99.66%
Style analysis is based on monthly returns from Jan 2014 to Dec 2018 and uses total portfolio return with monthly rebalancing. Returns based style analysis aims to explain the portfolio returns based on asset class exposures, it does not identify the actual portfolio holdings.

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1
Ticker	Name	Category	Duration	ER	Weight	Return Contribution	Risk Contribution
ITOT	iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt ETF	Large Blend		0.03%	42.00%	$1,916	69.31%
VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-Wld ex-US ETF	Foreign Large Blend		0.09%	18.00%	$150	29.72%
AGG	iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF	Intermediate Core Bond	5.53	0.05%	30.00%	$408	0.71%
BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond ETF	World Bond-USD Hedged	8.26	0.09%	10.00%	$215	0.26%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Fixed Income Credit Quality

Fixed Income Maturity

Fund fundamentals data as of 01/06/2020. (c) 2020 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The fund fundamentals information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Portfolio return and risk metrics
Metric	Portfolio 1
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)	0.41%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)	5.10%
Geometric Mean (monthly)	0.40%
Geometric Mean (annualized)	4.88%
Volatility (monthly)	1.88%
Volatility (annualized)	6.50%
Downside Deviation (monthly)	1.24%
Max. Drawdown	-7.60%
US Market Correlation	0.96
Beta^(*)	0.56
Alpha (annualized)	0.42%
R²	92.09%
Sharpe Ratio	0.67
Sortino Ratio	0.98
Treynor Ratio (%)	7.78
Calmar Ratio	0.76
Active Return	-2.92%
Tracking Error	5.25%
Information Ratio	-0.56
Skewness	-0.59
Excess Kurtosis	1.12
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)	-3.99%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)	-2.64%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)	-4.36%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)	57.88
Downside Capture Ratio (%)	59.22
Safe Withdrawal Rate	22.58%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate	3.21%
Positive Periods	41 out of 60 (68.33%)
Gain/Loss Ratio	0.82
^* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1
Rank	Start	End	Length	Recovery By	Recovery Time	Underwater Period	Drawdown
1	Sep 2018	Dec 2018	4 months				-7.60%
2	Jun 2015	Sep 2015	4 months	Jun 2016	9 months	1 year 1 month	-6.17%
3	Feb 2018	Apr 2018	3 months	Aug 2018	4 months	7 months	-3.50%
4	Jan 2014	Jan 2014	1 month	Feb 2014	1 month	2 months	-1.86%
5	Sep 2014	Sep 2014	1 month	Nov 2014	2 months	3 months	-1.81%
6	Oct 2016	Oct 2016	1 month	Dec 2016	2 months	3 months	-1.64%
7	Jul 2014	Jul 2014	1 month	Aug 2014	1 month	2 months	-1.00%
8	Dec 2014	Jan 2015	2 months	Feb 2015	1 month	3 months	-0.70%
9	Mar 2015	Mar 2015	1 month	Apr 2015	1 month	2 months	-0.64%

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
Ticker	Name	CAGR	Stdev	Best Year	Worst Year	Max. Drawdown	Sharpe Ratio	Sortino Ratio	US Mkt Correlation
ITOT	iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt ETF	8.20%	11.15%	21.38%	-5.31%	-14.20%	0.71	1.05	1.00
VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-Wld ex-US ETF	0.83%	11.94%	27.39%	-14.19%	-20.36%	0.08	0.11	0.79
AGG	iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF	2.53%	2.92%	6.00%	0.33%	-3.52%	0.65	1.06	-0.16
BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond ETF	3.92%	2.55%	8.74%	1.19%	-3.03%	1.26	2.34	-0.08

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
Ticker	Name	ITOT	VEU	AGG	BNDX	Portfolio 1
ITOT	iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt ETF	-	0.79	-0.16	-0.08	0.96
VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-Wld ex-US ETF	0.79	-	-0.00	-0.07	0.90
AGG	iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF	-0.16	-0.00	-	0.80	0.05
BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond ETF	-0.08	-0.07	0.80	-	0.07

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
Ticker	Name	Portfolio 1
ITOT	iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt ETF	$1,916
VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-Wld ex-US ETF	$150
AGG	iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF	$408
BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond ETF	$215

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
Ticker	Name	Portfolio 1
ITOT	iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt ETF	69.31%
VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-Wld ex-US ETF	29.72%
AGG	iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF	0.71%
BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond ETF	0.26%

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll Period	Average	High	Low
1 year	5.10%	15.21%	-4.40%
3 years	5.95%	7.27%	4.83%
5 years	4.88%	4.88%	4.88%
Result statistics are based on annualized rolling returns over full calendar year periods