Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks. You can analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, style exposures, and drawdowns. The results cover both returns and fund fundamentals based portfolio style analysis along with risk and return decomposition by each portfolio asset. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

The related asset class level portfolio modeling tool allows you to analyze and compare asset class level portfolios with a longer time horizon starting from 1972.

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Portfolio Assets 
Asset 1
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Asset 2
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Asset 3
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Asset 4
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Asset 5
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Asset 6
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Asset 7
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Asset 8
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Asset 9
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Asset 10
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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 1985 - Dec 2018)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Ticker Name Allocation
VFINX Vanguard 500 Index Investor 100.00%
Save portfolio »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$10,000$314,933 10.68% 14.82%37.45%-37.02%-50.97% 0.540.770.99
   

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
NameAnnualized ReturnAnnualized Volatility
3 Month1 year3 year5 year10 yearFull3 year5 year
Portfolio 1-13.55%-4.52%9.11%8.34%12.97%10.68%10.96%10.95%
Trailing annualized return and volatility are for full months ending in December 2018 excluding portfolio cashflows.
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdown analysis is calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationPortfolio 1 ReturnPortfolio 1 BalanceVanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)
19853.80%31.23%$13,12331.23%
19861.10%18.06%$15,49318.06%
19874.43%4.71%$16,2224.71%
19884.42%16.22%$18,85316.22%
19894.65%31.36%$24,76631.36%
19906.11%-3.32%$23,943-3.32%
19913.06%30.22%$31,17930.22%
19922.90%7.42%$33,4937.42%
19932.75%9.89%$36,8079.89%
19942.67%1.18%$37,2401.18%
19952.54%37.45%$51,18437.45%
19963.32%22.88%$62,89422.88%
19971.70%33.19%$83,76833.19%
19981.61%28.62%$107,74028.62%
19992.68%21.07%$130,43921.07%
20003.39%-9.06%$118,627-9.06%
20011.55%-12.02%$104,364-12.02%
20022.38%-22.15%$81,252-22.15%
20031.88%28.50%$104,41128.50%
20043.26%10.74%$115,62510.74%
20053.42%4.77%$121,1454.77%
20062.54%15.64%$140,09515.64%
20074.08%5.39%$147,6415.39%
20080.09%-37.02%$92,983-37.02%
20092.72%26.49%$117,61026.49%
20101.50%14.91%$135,15114.91%
20112.96%1.97%$137,8081.97%
20121.74%15.82%$159,61515.82%
20131.50%32.18%$210,97232.18%
20140.76%13.51%$239,47113.51%
20150.73%1.25%$242,4611.25%
20162.07%11.82%$271,11211.82%
20172.11%21.67%$329,85621.67%
20181.91%-4.52%$314,933-4.52%
Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
YearMonthPortfolio 1 ReturnVanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)
198517.58%7.58%
198521.38%1.38%
198530.01%0.01%
19854-0.28%-0.28%
198556.03%6.03%
198561.43%1.43%
19857-0.22%-0.22%
19858-0.67%-0.67%
19859-3.14%-3.14%
1985104.40%4.40%
1985116.94%6.94%
1985124.67%4.67%
198610.43%0.43%
198627.58%7.58%
198635.48%5.48%
19864-1.35%-1.35%
198655.45%5.45%
198661.67%1.67%
19867-5.74%-5.74%
198687.45%7.45%
19869-8.31%-8.31%
1986105.63%5.63%
1986112.55%2.55%
198612-2.64%-2.64%
1987113.27%13.27%
198723.97%3.97%
198732.89%2.89%
19874-1.03%-1.03%
198751.04%1.04%
198765.02%5.02%
198774.91%4.91%
198783.84%3.84%
19879-2.29%-2.29%
198710-21.73%-21.73%
198711-8.19%-8.19%
1987127.55%7.55%
198814.17%4.17%
198824.59%4.59%
19883-3.04%-3.04%
198841.01%1.01%
198850.81%0.81%
198864.56%4.56%
19887-0.37%-0.37%
19888-3.40%-3.40%
198894.26%4.26%
1988102.73%2.73%
198811-1.40%-1.40%
1988121.66%1.66%
198917.32%7.32%
19892-2.47%-2.47%
198932.26%2.26%
198945.18%5.18%
198954.04%4.04%
19896-0.59%-0.59%
198979.01%9.01%
198981.86%1.86%
19899-0.40%-0.40%
198910-2.34%-2.34%
1989112.04%2.04%
1989122.38%2.38%
19901-6.72%-6.72%
199021.27%1.27%
199032.61%2.61%
19904-2.50%-2.50%
199059.69%9.69%
19906-0.66%-0.66%
19907-0.35%-0.35%
19908-9.03%-9.03%
19909-4.89%-4.89%
199010-0.41%-0.41%
1990116.44%6.44%
1990122.72%2.72%
199114.32%4.32%
199127.15%7.15%
199132.41%2.41%
199140.20%0.20%
199154.27%4.27%
19916-4.56%-4.56%
199174.63%4.63%
199182.33%2.33%
19919-1.67%-1.67%
1991101.33%1.33%
199111-4.01%-4.01%
19911211.41%11.41%
19921-1.88%-1.88%
199221.24%1.24%
19923-1.93%-1.93%
199242.91%2.91%
199250.48%0.48%
19926-1.49%-1.49%
199274.04%4.04%
19928-2.07%-2.07%
199291.17%1.17%
1992100.33%0.33%
1992113.40%3.40%
1992121.21%1.21%
199310.81%0.81%
199321.36%1.36%
199332.11%2.11%
19934-2.42%-2.42%
199352.65%2.65%
199360.27%0.27%
19937-0.42%-0.42%
199383.79%3.79%
19939-0.79%-0.79%
1993102.08%2.08%
199311-1.00%-1.00%
1993121.22%1.22%
199413.38%3.38%
19942-2.71%-2.71%
19943-4.39%-4.39%
199441.29%1.29%
199451.63%1.63%
19946-2.47%-2.47%
199473.28%3.28%
199484.08%4.08%
19949-2.45%-2.45%
1994102.25%2.25%
199411-3.65%-3.65%
1994121.46%1.46%
199512.58%2.58%
199523.88%3.88%
199532.95%2.95%
199542.94%2.94%
199553.95%3.95%
199562.31%2.31%
199573.30%3.30%
199580.25%0.25%
199594.23%4.23%
199510-0.36%-0.36%
1995114.38%4.38%
1995121.93%1.93%
199613.39%3.39%
199620.92%0.92%
199630.98%0.98%
199641.46%1.46%
199652.54%2.54%
199660.38%0.38%
19967-4.42%-4.42%
199682.10%2.10%
199695.61%5.61%
1996102.76%2.76%
1996117.56%7.56%
199612-1.96%-1.96%
199716.22%6.22%
199720.79%0.79%
19973-4.14%-4.14%
199745.96%5.96%
199756.09%6.09%
199764.45%4.45%
199777.97%7.97%
19978-5.61%-5.61%
199795.47%5.47%
199710-3.35%-3.35%
1997114.60%4.60%
1997121.72%1.72%
199811.11%1.11%
199827.19%7.19%
199835.10%5.10%
199841.01%1.01%
19985-1.74%-1.74%
199864.07%4.07%
19987-1.05%-1.05%
19988-14.47%-14.47%
199896.41%6.41%
1998108.16%8.16%
1998116.07%6.07%
1998125.81%5.81%
199914.20%4.20%
19992-3.12%-3.12%
199934.00%4.00%
199943.85%3.85%
19995-2.39%-2.39%
199965.56%5.56%
19997-3.13%-3.13%
19998-0.50%-0.50%
19999-2.74%-2.74%
1999106.33%6.33%
1999112.02%2.02%
1999125.98%5.98%
20001-5.03%-5.03%
20002-1.91%-1.91%
200039.75%9.75%
20004-3.00%-3.00%
20005-2.04%-2.04%
200062.49%2.49%
20007-1.50%-1.50%
200086.19%6.19%
20009-5.29%-5.29%
200010-0.43%-0.43%
200011-7.89%-7.89%
2000120.51%0.51%
200113.55%3.55%
20012-9.14%-9.14%
20013-6.36%-6.36%
200147.77%7.77%
200150.65%0.65%
20016-2.45%-2.45%
20017-1.00%-1.00%
20018-6.27%-6.27%
20019-8.09%-8.09%
2001101.90%1.90%
2001117.65%7.65%
2001120.87%0.87%
20021-1.47%-1.47%
20022-1.94%-1.94%
200233.74%3.74%
20024-6.07%-6.07%
20025-0.75%-0.75%
20026-7.13%-7.13%
20027-7.72%-7.72%
200280.65%0.65%
20029-10.87%-10.87%
2002108.78%8.78%
2002115.88%5.88%
200212-5.89%-5.89%
20031-2.62%-2.62%
20032-1.52%-1.52%
200330.96%0.96%
200348.25%8.25%
200355.26%5.26%
200361.26%1.26%
200371.74%1.74%
200381.93%1.93%
20039-1.07%-1.07%
2003105.64%5.64%
2003110.86%0.86%
2003125.22%5.22%
200411.82%1.82%
200421.38%1.38%
20043-1.51%-1.51%
20044-1.58%-1.58%
200451.36%1.36%
200461.93%1.93%
20047-3.31%-3.31%
200480.38%0.38%
200491.07%1.07%
2004101.51%1.51%
2004114.05%4.05%
2004123.39%3.39%
20051-2.45%-2.45%
200522.09%2.09%
20053-1.76%-1.76%
20054-1.91%-1.91%
200553.17%3.17%
200560.13%0.13%
200573.71%3.71%
20058-0.91%-0.91%
200590.79%0.79%
200510-1.68%-1.68%
2005113.76%3.76%
2005120.02%0.02%
200612.65%2.65%
200620.26%0.26%
200631.23%1.23%
200641.33%1.33%
20065-2.90%-2.90%
200660.13%0.13%
200670.61%0.61%
200682.36%2.36%
200692.56%2.56%
2006103.25%3.25%
2006111.89%1.89%
2006121.39%1.39%
200711.49%1.49%
20072-1.97%-1.97%
200731.11%1.11%
200744.42%4.42%
200753.48%3.48%
20076-1.68%-1.68%
20077-3.08%-3.08%
200781.50%1.50%
200793.72%3.72%
2007101.58%1.58%
200711-4.19%-4.19%
200712-0.70%-0.70%
20081-6.02%-6.02%
20082-3.25%-3.25%
20083-0.44%-0.44%
200844.85%4.85%
200851.29%1.29%
20086-8.44%-8.44%
20087-0.83%-0.83%
200881.45%1.45%
20089-8.91%-8.91%
200810-16.79%-16.79%
200811-7.17%-7.17%
2008121.07%1.07%
20091-8.41%-8.41%
20092-10.66%-10.66%
200938.76%8.76%
200949.56%9.56%
200955.62%5.62%
200960.22%0.22%
200977.58%7.58%
200983.60%3.60%
200993.72%3.72%
200910-1.87%-1.87%
2009115.98%5.98%
2009121.95%1.95%
20101-3.60%-3.60%
201023.09%3.09%
201036.01%6.01%
201041.58%1.58%
20105-8.01%-8.01%
20106-5.24%-5.24%
201077.00%7.00%
20108-4.53%-4.53%
201098.92%8.92%
2010103.79%3.79%
2010110.00%0.00%
2010126.67%6.67%
201112.36%2.36%
201123.42%3.42%
201130.03%0.03%
201142.95%2.95%
20115-1.15%-1.15%
20116-1.67%-1.67%
20117-2.05%-2.05%
20118-5.45%-5.45%
20119-7.04%-7.04%
20111010.91%10.91%
201111-0.23%-0.23%
2011121.02%1.02%
201214.46%4.46%
201224.31%4.31%
201233.28%3.28%
20124-0.64%-0.64%
20125-6.02%-6.02%
201264.11%4.11%
201271.37%1.37%
201282.24%2.24%
201292.58%2.58%
201210-1.86%-1.86%
2012110.56%0.56%
2012120.90%0.90%
201315.18%5.18%
201321.34%1.34%
201333.74%3.74%
201341.91%1.91%
201352.33%2.33%
20136-1.35%-1.35%
201375.07%5.07%
20138-2.91%-2.91%
201393.12%3.12%
2013104.59%4.59%
2013113.03%3.03%
2013122.51%2.51%
20141-3.47%-3.47%
201424.56%4.56%
201430.82%0.82%
201440.72%0.72%
201452.33%2.33%
201462.05%2.05%
20147-1.39%-1.39%
201483.98%3.98%
20149-1.41%-1.41%
2014102.42%2.42%
2014112.68%2.68%
201412-0.26%-0.26%
20151-3.02%-3.02%
201525.74%5.74%
20153-1.59%-1.59%
201540.95%0.95%
201551.27%1.27%
20156-1.93%-1.93%
201572.08%2.08%
20158-6.05%-6.05%
20159-2.48%-2.48%
2015108.42%8.42%
2015110.29%0.29%
201512-1.59%-1.59%
20161-4.98%-4.98%
20162-0.15%-0.15%
201636.78%6.78%
201640.37%0.37%
201651.78%1.78%
201660.25%0.25%
201673.68%3.68%
201680.13%0.13%
201690.01%0.01%
201610-1.83%-1.83%
2016113.70%3.70%
2016121.96%1.96%
201711.88%1.88%
201723.96%3.96%
201730.10%0.10%
201741.02%1.02%
201751.39%1.39%
201760.61%0.61%
201772.04%2.04%
201780.29%0.29%
201792.06%2.06%
2017102.32%2.32%
2017113.06%3.06%
2017121.10%1.10%
201815.71%5.71%
20182-3.69%-3.69%
20183-2.56%-2.56%
201840.37%0.37%
201852.39%2.39%
201860.61%0.61%
201873.71%3.71%
201883.25%3.25%
201890.55%0.55%
201810-6.85%-6.85%
2018112.03%2.03%
201812-9.04%-9.04%

Returns Based Style Analysis

Returns Based Style Analysis
Style CategoryPortfolio 1
Large-cap Value47.21%
Large-cap Growth52.57%
Mid-cap Value0.00%
Mid-cap Growth0.00%
Small-cap Value0.00%
Small-cap Growth0.00%
Global ex-US Developed Markets0.00%
Emerging Markets0.00%
Corporate Bonds0.00%
Long-Term Treasuries0.00%
Intermediate-Term Treasuries0.22%
Short-Term Treasuries0.00%
R Squared99.91%
Style analysis is based on monthly returns from April 2005 to December 2018 and uses total portfolio return with monthly rebalancing. Returns based style analysis aims to explain the portfolio returns based on asset class exposures, it does not identify the actual portfolio holdings.

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1
TickerNameCategoryWeightYieldFeesP/EReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
VFINXVanguard 500 Index InvestorLarge Blend100.00%1.40%0.14%27.41$304,933100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Fixed Income Maturity

Fund fundamentals data as of 02/26/2021. (c) 2021 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The fund fundamentals information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)0.94%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)11.91%
Geometric Mean (monthly)0.85%
Geometric Mean (annualized)10.68%
Volatility (monthly)4.28%
Volatility (annualized)14.82%
Downside Deviation (monthly)2.84%
Max. Drawdown-50.97%
US Market Correlation0.99
Beta(*)0.98
Alpha (annualized)0.40%
R297.82%
Sharpe Ratio0.54
Sortino Ratio0.77
Treynor Ratio (%)8.12
Calmar Ratio0.67
Active Return0.20%
Tracking Error2.21%
Information Ratio0.09
Skewness-0.81
Excess Kurtosis2.59
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-6.80%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-6.09%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-9.71%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)98.13
Downside Capture Ratio (%)96.45
Safe Withdrawal Rate11.18%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate7.31%
Positive Periods268 out of 408 (65.69%)
Gain/Loss Ratio0.92
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEndPortfolio 1
Black Monday PeriodSep 1987Nov 1987-29.78%
Asian CrisisJul 1997Jan 1998-5.61%
Russian Debt DefaultJul 1998Oct 1998-15.38%
Dotcom CrashMar 2000Oct 2002-44.82%
Subprime CrisisNov 2007Mar 2009-50.97%

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsAug 20123 years 6 months4 years 10 months-50.97%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 monthNov 20064 years 2 months6 years 3 months-44.82%
3Sep 1987Nov 19873 monthsMay 19891 year 6 months1 year 9 months-29.78%
4Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-15.38%
5Jun 1990Oct 19905 monthsFeb 19914 months9 months-14.70%
6Oct 2018Dec 20183 months-13.55%
7Aug 2015Sep 20152 monthsMay 20168 months10 months-8.38%
8Sep 1986Sep 19861 monthJan 19874 months5 months-8.31%
9Feb 1994Mar 19942 monthsAug 19945 months7 months-6.98%
10Jan 2000Feb 20002 monthsMar 20001 month3 months-6.84%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
TickerNameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
VFINXVanguard 500 Index Investor10.68%14.82%37.45%-37.02%-50.97%0.540.770.99

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodAverageHighLow
1 year12.19%53.61%-43.32%
3 years10.67%32.68%-16.14%
5 years10.38%28.49%-6.73%
7 years10.00%21.51%-3.94%
10 years9.45%19.37%-3.51%
15 years8.87%18.68%3.64%