Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks. You can analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, style exposures, and drawdowns. The results cover both returns and fund fundamentals based portfolio style analysis along with risk and return decomposition by each portfolio asset. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

The related asset class level portfolio modeling tool allows you to analyze and compare asset class level portfolios with a longer time horizon starting from 1972.

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Portfolio Analysis Results (Sep 2019 - Sep 2020)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Ticker Name Allocation
NTSX WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced 34.00%
GLD SPDR Gold Shares 29.00%
VIESX Virtus KAR Emerging Markets Small-Cap I 13.00%
JOHIX JOHCM International Select I 13.00%
CASHX Cash 11.00%
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Portfolio 2
Ticker Name Allocation
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 100.00%
Save portfolio »
Portfolio 3
Ticker Name Allocation
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 40.00%
VGTSX Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv 20.00%
VBMFX Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv 40.00%
Save portfolio »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$10,000$12,098 19.22% 14.19%15.69%4.56%-9.69% 1.242.400.94
Portfolio 2$10,000$11,730 15.87% 22.50%11.11%5.58%-19.43% 0.721.101.00
Portfolio 3$10,000$11,089 10.01% 12.82%6.60%4.02%-11.49% 0.731.070.99
   

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
Name3 MonthYTD1 yearFull
Portfolio 17.40%15.69%21.67%19.22%
Portfolio 29.04%5.58%15.06%15.87%
Portfolio 34.95%4.02%9.70%10.01%
Trailing returns are for full months ending in September 2020 excluding portfolio cashflows.
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • The annual results for 2019 are based on monthly returns from September to December
  • The annual results for 2020 are based on monthly returns from January to September
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdown analysis is calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
  • Portfolio cashflows and rebalancing for quarterly and annual periods are aligned with calendar periods.
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationReturnBalanceWisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced (NTSX)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)Virtus KAR Emerging Markets Small-Cap I (VIESX)JOHCM International Select I (JOHIX)Cash (CASHX)SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX)Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX)
Portfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3Portfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
20190.16%4.56%11.11%6.60%$10,456$11,111$10,6608.19%-0.59%7.50%7.01%0.57%11.11%11.95%-0.59%
20201.29%15.69%5.58%4.02%$12,098$11,730$11,08913.09%23.95%18.10%14.61%0.42%5.58%-4.88%6.92%
Annual returns for 2019 and 2020 are based on partial years
Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
YearMonthReturnBalanceWisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced (NTSX)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)Virtus KAR Emerging Markets Small-Cap I (VIESX)JOHCM International Select I (JOHIX)Cash (CASHX)SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv (VGTSX)Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv (VBMFX)
Portfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3Portfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
20199-0.57%1.95%1.09%$9,943$10,195$10,1091.09%-3.39%0.75%-0.53%0.16%1.95%2.72%-0.60%
2019101.68%2.21%1.66%$10,110$10,420$10,2771.65%2.56%0.99%1.86%0.15%2.21%3.38%0.21%
2019110.78%3.62%1.67%$10,189$10,797$10,4483.07%-3.21%1.38%3.35%0.13%3.62%1.11%-0.06%
2019122.62%2.90%2.02%$10,456$11,111$10,6602.16%3.66%4.22%2.19%0.13%2.90%4.27%-0.15%
202011.90%-0.04%0.17%$10,655$11,106$10,6782.03%4.50%-1.10%0.25%0.13%-0.04%-3.30%2.11%
20202-3.99%-7.92%-3.76%$10,229$10,227$10,276-6.55%-0.64%-4.53%-7.93%0.13%-7.92%-6.72%1.71%
20203-5.94%-12.46%-8.03%$9,622$8,952$9,451-8.64%-0.22%-15.83%-8.39%0.10%-12.46%-16.11%-0.59%
202049.02%12.70%6.79%$10,491$10,089$10,09211.76%7.26%14.75%10.14%0.01%12.70%8.09%1.69%
202054.61%4.76%2.90%$10,974$10,570$10,3855.04%2.59%9.75%8.00%0.01%4.76%4.80%0.54%
202062.64%1.78%1.74%$11,264$10,758$10,5661.34%2.74%7.00%3.77%0.01%1.78%4.24%0.70%
202076.61%5.89%3.71%$12,009$11,391$10,9576.08%10.79%3.60%5.94%0.01%5.89%4.10%1.55%
202083.00%6.98%3.13%$12,369$12,186$11,3016.26%-0.32%5.11%3.43%0.01%6.98%4.31%-1.02%
20209-2.20%-3.74%-1.88%$12,098$11,730$11,089-3.17%-4.17%1.28%0.22%0.01%-3.74%-1.96%0.08%

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1
TickerNameCategoryWeightERP/EReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
NTSXWisdomTree 90/60 US BalancedLarge Blend34.00%0.20%26.00$74442.50%
GLDSPDR Gold SharesCommodities Focused29.00%0.40%$70922.02%
VIESXVirtus KAR Emerging Markets Small-Cap IDiversified Emerging Mkts13.00%1.62%17.85$34319.91%
JOHIXJOHCM International Select IForeign Large Growth13.00%0.99%26.17$29015.65%
CASHXCashCash11.00%$11.12-0.08%
100.00%0.59%24.27$2,098100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Fixed Income Maturity

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 2

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 2
TickerNameCategoryWeightERP/EReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustLarge Blend100.00%0.09%25.89$1,730100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 3

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 3
TickerNameCategoryWeightERP/EDurationReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustLarge Blend40.00%0.09%25.89$68266.10%
VGTSXVanguard Total Intl Stock Index InvForeign Large Blend20.00%0.17%18.00$13531.75%
VBMFXVanguard Total Bond Market Index InvIntermediate Core Bond40.00%0.15%6.55$2712.15%
100.00%0.13%23.266.55$1,089100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Fixed Income Credit Quality

Fixed Income Maturity

Fund fundamentals data as of 10/27/2020. (c) 2020 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The fund fundamentals information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)1.55%1.43%0.86%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)20.30%18.62%10.85%
Geometric Mean (monthly)1.48%1.24%0.80%
Geometric Mean (annualized)19.22%15.87%10.01%
Volatility (monthly)4.10%6.49%3.70%
Volatility (annualized)14.19%22.50%12.82%
Downside Deviation (monthly)2.08%4.22%2.51%
Max. Drawdown-9.69%-19.43%-11.49%
US Market Correlation0.941.000.99
Beta(*)0.560.940.53
Alpha (annualized)9.08%1.03%1.20%
R287.45%99.76%98.32%
Sharpe Ratio1.240.720.73
Sortino Ratio2.401.101.07
Treynor Ratio (%)31.7517.2317.65
Active Return3.77%0.43%-5.43%
Tracking Error11.65%1.72%11.20%
Information Ratio0.320.25-0.49
Skewness-0.10-0.68-1.10
Excess Kurtosis0.080.982.03
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-5.94%-12.46%-8.03%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-5.01%-9.25%-5.24%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)N/AN/AN/A
Upside Capture Ratio (%)65.1196.4652.06
Downside Capture Ratio (%)41.9194.5754.56
Safe Withdrawal Rate100.00%100.00%100.00%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate16.14%13.52%8.51%
Positive Periods9 out of 13 (69.23%)9 out of 13 (69.23%)10 out of 13 (76.92%)
Gain/Loss Ratio1.150.790.55
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Feb 2020Mar 20202 monthsMay 20202 months4 months-9.69%
2Sep 2020Sep 20201 month-2.20%
3Sep 2019Sep 20191 monthOct 20191 month2 months-0.57%

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 2020Mar 20203 monthsJul 20204 months7 months-19.43%
2Sep 2020Sep 20201 month-3.74%

Drawdowns for Portfolio 3

Drawdowns for Portfolio 3
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Feb 2020Mar 20202 monthsJul 20204 months6 months-11.49%
2Sep 2020Sep 20201 month-1.88%

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
TickerNameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
NTSXWisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced20.48%18.81%13.09%8.19%-14.63%1.031.770.98
GLDSPDR Gold Shares21.25%15.02%23.95%-0.59%-4.48%1.293.130.46
VIESXVirtus KAR Emerging Markets Small-Cap I24.64%25.27%18.10%7.50%-20.54%0.961.520.92
JOHIXJOHCM International Select I20.74%18.52%14.61%7.01%-15.66%1.051.750.94
CASHXCash0.92%0.23%0.57%0.42%0.00%N/AN/A-0.40
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust15.87%22.50%11.11%5.58%-19.43%0.721.101.00
VGTSXVanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv5.98%22.22%11.95%-4.88%-24.33%0.330.420.94
VBMFXVanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv5.79%3.51%6.92%-0.59%-1.02%1.353.340.14

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
TickerNameNTSXGLDVIESXJOHIXCASHXSPYVGTSXVBMFXPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
NTSXWisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced1.000.550.870.94-0.420.990.870.200.960.990.97
GLDSPDR Gold Shares0.551.000.390.51-0.320.470.370.620.730.470.50
VIESXVirtus KAR Emerging Markets Small-Cap I0.870.391.000.92-0.530.900.940.230.880.900.93
JOHIXJOHCM International Select I0.940.510.921.00-0.560.930.890.170.940.930.93
CASHXCash-0.42-0.32-0.53-0.561.00-0.39-0.35-0.12-0.49-0.39-0.37
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust0.990.470.900.93-0.391.000.930.130.941.000.99
VGTSXVanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv0.870.370.940.89-0.350.931.000.080.850.930.96
VBMFXVanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv0.200.620.230.17-0.120.130.081.000.360.130.21

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
NTSXWisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced$744
GLDSPDR Gold Shares$709
VIESXVirtus KAR Emerging Markets Small-Cap I$343
JOHIXJOHCM International Select I$290
CASHXCash$11.12
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust$1,730$682
VGTSXVanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv$135
VBMFXVanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv$271

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
NTSXWisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced42.50%
GLDSPDR Gold Shares22.02%
VIESXVirtus KAR Emerging Markets Small-Cap I19.91%
JOHIXJOHCM International Select I15.65%
CASHXCash-0.08%
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust100.00%66.10%
VGTSXVanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv31.75%
VBMFXVanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv2.15%

Annual Asset Returns