Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks. You can analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, style exposures, and drawdowns. The results cover both returns and fund fundamentals based portfolio style analysis along with risk and return decomposition by each portfolio asset. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

The related asset class level portfolio modeling tool allows you to analyze and compare asset class level portfolios with a longer time horizon starting from 1972.

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Portfolio Analysis Results (Nov 2013 - Aug 2021)

Portfolio Allocations

80/20
Ticker Name Allocation
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 80.00%
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 20.00%
Save portfolio »
70/20/10
Ticker Name Allocation
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 30.00%
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 20.00%
GLD SPDR Gold Shares 10.00%
NOBL ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats 20.00%
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust 20.00%
Save portfolio »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
80/20$10,000$27,182 13.62% 10.69%28.31%-4.07%-14.10% 1.181.990.97
70/20/10$10,000$28,641 14.38% 10.24%28.62%-2.53%-11.63% 1.302.350.94
   

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
NameAnnualized ReturnAnnualized Volatility
3 MonthYTD1 year3 year5 yearFull3 year5 year
80/207.87%17.59%24.94%16.77%15.43%13.62%14.53%11.85%
70/20/108.21%15.87%22.31%18.86%16.51%14.38%13.74%11.36%
Trailing annualized return and volatility are for full months ending in August 2021 excluding portfolio cashflows.
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • The annual results for 2013 are based on monthly returns from November to December
  • The annual results for 2021 are based on monthly returns from January to August
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdown analysis is calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The results assume no rebalancing of portfolio assets per parameterization. See the allocation drift section for details
  • Portfolio cashflows and rebalancing for quarterly and annual periods are aligned with calendar periods.
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflation80/2070/20/10SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (NOBL)Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)
ReturnBalanceReturnBalance
2013-0.21%3.60%$10,3601.94%$10,1945.63%-4.52%-9.10%3.76%6.58%
20140.76%16.01%$12,01916.28%$11,85413.46%27.30%-2.19%15.55%19.18%
20150.73%0.64%$12,0961.33%$12,0111.25%-1.79%-10.67%0.44%9.45%
20162.07%9.87%$13,2898.38%$13,01812.00%1.18%8.03%11.65%7.10%
20172.11%19.42%$15,87021.16%$15,77221.70%9.18%12.81%21.02%32.66%
20181.91%-4.07%$15,225-2.53%$15,374-4.56%-1.61%-1.94%-3.28%-0.12%
20192.29%28.31%$19,53528.62%$19,77331.22%14.12%17.86%26.94%38.96%
20201.36%18.34%$23,11725.01%$24,71918.37%18.15%24.81%8.37%48.40%
20215.03%17.59%$27,18215.87%$28,64121.57%-4.78%-4.86%19.16%21.39%
Annual return for 2013 is from 11/01/2013 to 12/31/2013 and annual return for 2021 is from 01/01/2021 to 08/31/2021
Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
YearMonth80/2070/20/10SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (NOBL)Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)
ReturnBalanceReturnBalance
2013111.83%$10,1830.84%$10,0842.96%-2.70%-5.51%1.66%3.55%
2013121.74%$10,3601.09%$10,1942.59%-1.87%-3.79%2.06%2.92%
20141-1.71%$10,183-0.94%$10,098-3.52%6.30%3.42%-4.58%-1.92%
201423.75%$10,5644.05%$10,5084.55%0.52%6.27%4.70%5.15%
201430.81%$10,650-0.27%$10,4790.83%0.73%-3.14%1.05%-2.73%
201440.97%$10,7530.83%$10,5670.70%2.10%0.49%1.13%-0.32%
201452.44%$11,0162.26%$10,8052.32%2.95%-3.05%1.67%4.49%
201461.61%$11,1932.07%$11,0282.06%-0.25%6.32%1.44%3.12%
20147-0.96%$11,086-0.91%$10,928-1.34%0.67%-3.63%-2.73%1.18%
201484.10%$11,5404.01%$11,3663.95%4.72%0.38%3.93%5.01%
20149-1.52%$11,364-1.54%$11,191-1.38%-2.11%-6.18%-0.06%-0.76%
2014102.44%$11,6422.45%$11,4652.36%2.81%-3.05%4.29%2.64%
2014112.79%$11,9673.19%$11,8302.75%2.97%-0.49%4.01%4.55%
2014120.43%$12,0190.20%$11,854-0.26%3.25%1.31%0.13%-2.24%
20151-0.38%$11,9740.76%$11,944-2.96%9.82%8.69%-2.75%-2.08%
201523.00%$12,3332.21%$12,2085.62%-6.14%-5.91%4.68%7.22%
20153-1.03%$12,205-1.15%$12,067-1.57%1.10%-2.15%-1.14%-2.36%
201540.07%$12,214-0.23%$12,0400.98%-3.43%-0.17%-1.04%1.92%
201550.55%$12,2810.70%$12,1241.29%-2.37%0.56%1.29%2.25%
20156-2.43%$11,983-2.45%$11,827-2.03%-4.07%-1.52%-1.80%-2.48%
201572.70%$12,3062.60%$12,1342.26%4.55%-6.62%2.46%4.56%
20158-5.04%$11,686-4.31%$11,612-6.10%-0.69%3.71%-4.98%-6.82%
20159-1.63%$11,496-1.46%$11,442-2.54%1.97%-1.80%-2.41%-2.20%
2015106.62%$12,2576.56%$12,1938.51%-0.41%2.28%7.33%11.37%
2015110.12%$12,272-0.35%$12,1500.37%-0.87%-6.75%0.24%0.61%
201512-1.44%$12,096-1.14%$12,011-1.72%-0.30%-0.45%-0.81%-1.59%
20161-2.90%$11,745-2.09%$11,761-4.98%5.57%5.41%-2.21%-6.91%
201620.60%$11,8161.45%$11,931-0.08%3.09%10.93%1.89%-1.57%
201635.23%$12,4334.71%$12,4936.72%-0.09%-0.84%6.87%6.85%
201640.16%$12,453-0.19%$12,4690.39%-0.74%5.11%0.80%-3.19%
201651.52%$12,6411.28%$12,6281.70%0.81%-6.14%0.76%4.37%
201661.70%$12,8572.27%$12,9150.35%6.93%8.97%2.86%-2.27%
201673.31%$13,2833.63%$13,3843.65%2.10%1.98%2.28%7.15%
20168-0.12%$13,266-0.31%$13,3430.12%-1.01%-3.26%-0.54%1.05%
20169-0.31%$13,225-0.06%$13,3350.01%-1.51%0.69%-1.35%2.21%
201610-2.29%$12,922-2.89%$12,950-1.73%-4.38%-2.94%-4.60%-1.46%
2016111.25%$13,084-0.41%$12,8963.68%-8.21%-8.36%3.45%0.44%
2016121.57%$13,2890.94%$13,0182.03%-0.46%-1.91%1.33%1.13%
201711.61%$13,5032.39%$13,3291.79%0.81%5.42%0.69%5.14%
201723.51%$13,9773.50%$13,7953.93%1.59%3.18%3.67%4.38%
20173-0.01%$13,9750.42%$13,8540.13%-0.65%-0.43%0.24%2.03%
201741.09%$14,1281.66%$14,0840.99%1.57%1.73%1.48%2.73%
201751.50%$14,3391.86%$14,3461.41%1.89%-0.12%0.75%3.90%
201760.66%$14,434-0.20%$14,3170.64%0.79%-2.16%0.90%-2.32%
201771.57%$14,6621.88%$14,5862.06%-0.66%2.31%1.09%4.06%
201780.83%$14,7841.34%$14,7820.29%3.41%4.20%-0.63%2.07%
201791.24%$14,9670.51%$14,8572.01%-2.32%-3.37%3.02%-0.29%
2017101.94%$15,2582.11%$15,1712.36%-0.04%-0.75%1.43%4.61%
2017112.67%$15,6652.53%$15,5553.06%0.74%0.36%4.61%1.97%
2017121.31%$15,8701.39%$15,7721.21%1.81%2.11%2.11%0.60%
201814.16%$16,5304.36%$16,4605.64%-3.26%3.23%3.59%8.76%
20182-3.54%$15,944-3.10%$15,950-3.64%-3.04%-2.08%-4.91%-1.29%
20183-1.87%$15,646-1.66%$15,686-2.74%2.86%0.63%-0.94%-4.08%
201840.09%$15,660-0.31%$15,6370.52%-2.09%-0.95%-1.00%0.51%
201852.36%$16,0302.69%$16,0582.43%2.01%-1.20%0.96%5.67%
201860.59%$16,1240.55%$16,1460.58%0.65%-3.61%0.87%1.15%
201872.89%$16,5902.53%$16,5553.70%-1.44%-2.24%4.88%2.80%
201882.91%$17,0733.03%$17,0573.19%1.31%-2.14%1.80%5.78%
201890.08%$17,086-0.17%$17,0280.59%-2.86%-0.66%0.90%-0.28%
201810-6.33%$16,004-6.04%$16,000-6.91%-2.93%2.12%-5.46%-8.60%
2018111.84%$16,2991.79%$16,2871.85%1.79%0.34%4.84%-0.26%
201812-6.59%$15,225-5.61%$15,374-8.79%5.85%4.94%-7.93%-8.65%
201916.71%$16,2466.13%$16,3168.01%0.38%2.89%5.40%9.01%
201922.50%$16,6522.50%$16,7233.24%-1.38%-0.61%4.67%2.99%
201932.39%$17,0502.68%$17,1721.81%5.57%-1.60%1.48%3.92%
201943.12%$17,5822.75%$17,6434.09%-1.99%-0.66%1.68%5.50%
20195-4.38%$16,812-4.28%$16,889-6.38%6.84%1.76%-5.50%-8.23%
201965.94%$17,8116.20%$17,9366.96%0.95%8.00%7.11%7.59%
201971.31%$18,0451.32%$18,1721.51%0.26%0.01%0.88%2.33%
201980.35%$18,1081.04%$18,362-1.67%11.04%7.91%-0.60%-1.90%
201991.13%$18,3130.84%$18,5161.95%-2.68%-3.39%3.43%0.92%
2019101.65%$18,6152.04%$18,8942.21%-1.11%2.56%1.22%4.38%
2019112.96%$19,1652.57%$19,3803.62%-0.41%-3.21%3.08%4.07%
2019121.93%$19,5352.03%$19,7732.90%-3.20%3.66%1.81%3.89%
202011.13%$19,7561.71%$20,111-0.04%7.69%4.50%-2.61%3.04%
20202-5.57%$18,655-4.80%$19,146-7.92%6.63%-0.64%-8.63%-6.06%
20203-9.03%$16,971-7.18%$17,772-12.46%6.38%-0.22%-13.74%-7.29%
2020410.25%$18,71110.22%$19,58812.70%1.22%7.26%10.27%14.97%
202053.49%$19,3634.02%$20,3754.76%-1.76%2.59%5.24%6.60%
202061.51%$19,6552.83%$20,9511.78%0.34%2.74%1.27%6.28%
202075.62%$20,7606.25%$22,2605.89%4.44%10.79%5.06%7.35%
202084.80%$21,7565.20%$23,4176.98%-5.05%-0.32%4.07%10.94%
20209-3.00%$21,104-3.36%$22,632-3.74%0.77%-4.17%-1.44%-5.78%
202010-2.65%$20,546-2.59%$22,045-2.49%-3.39%-0.52%-1.93%-3.04%
2020119.31%$22,4598.70%$23,96310.88%1.66%-5.41%11.96%11.23%
2020122.93%$23,1173.16%$24,7193.71%-1.23%7.01%1.52%4.90%
20211-1.41%$22,790-1.27%$24,404-1.02%-3.63%-3.22%-2.05%0.26%
202121.52%$23,1370.15%$24,4402.78%-5.73%-6.26%2.89%-0.13%
202133.20%$23,8762.58%$25,0724.54%-5.24%-1.14%7.64%1.71%
202144.94%$25,0554.90%$26,3005.29%2.49%3.56%4.37%5.91%
202150.58%$25,1990.64%$26,4690.66%0.00%7.68%2.45%-1.20%
202162.51%$25,8332.65%$27,1712.25%4.42%-7.15%-1.27%6.26%
202172.60%$26,5052.68%$27,9002.44%3.72%2.53%2.14%2.86%
202182.56%$27,1822.65%$28,6412.98%-0.34%-0.08%1.87%4.22%

Returns Based Style Analysis

Returns Based Style Analysis
Style Category80/2070/20/10
Large-cap Value36.66%22.91%
Large-cap Growth43.31%44.58%
Mid-cap Value0.00%0.21%
Mid-cap Growth0.00%0.00%
Small-cap Value0.00%0.00%
Small-cap Growth0.00%0.00%
Global ex-US Developed Markets0.00%0.36%
Emerging Markets0.00%3.38%
Corporate Bonds0.00%0.00%
Long-Term Treasuries19.58%23.02%
Intermediate-Term Treasuries0.45%5.53%
Short-Term Treasuries0.00%0.00%
R Squared99.94%97.66%
Style analysis is based on monthly returns from November 2013 to August 2021 and uses total portfolio return with monthly rebalancing. Returns based style analysis aims to explain the portfolio returns based on asset class exposures, it does not identify the actual portfolio holdings.

Holdings Based Style Analysis for 80/20

Holdings Based Style Analysis for 80/20
TickerNameCategoryWeightYieldFeesP/EDurationReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustLarge Blend80.00%1.23%0.09%25.30$15,850102.60%
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFLong Government20.00%1.45%0.15%19.01$1,332-2.60%
100.00%1.27%0.11%25.3019.01$17,182100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Fixed Income Credit Quality

Fixed Income Maturity

Holdings Based Style Analysis for 70/20/10

Holdings Based Style Analysis for 70/20/10
TickerNameCategoryWeightYieldFeesP/EDurationReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustLarge Blend30.00%1.23%0.09%25.30$5,94441.00%
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFLong Government20.00%1.45%0.15%19.01$1,332-0.27%
GLDSPDR Gold SharesCommodities Focused10.00%0.40%$3283.16%
NOBLProShares S&P 500 Dividend AristocratsLarge Value20.00%1.87%0.35%23.99$3,15824.95%
QQQInvesco QQQ TrustLarge Growth20.00%0.46%0.20%33.89$7,87831.17%
100.00%1.13%0.21%27.3819.01$18,641100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Fixed Income Credit Quality

Fixed Income Maturity

Fund fundamentals data as of 09/27/2021. (c) 2021 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The fund fundamentals information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Portfolio return and risk metrics
Metric80/2070/20/10
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)1.12%1.17%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)14.25%14.96%
Geometric Mean (monthly)1.07%1.13%
Geometric Mean (annualized)13.62%14.38%
Volatility (monthly)3.09%2.95%
Volatility (annualized)10.69%10.24%
Downside Deviation (monthly)1.81%1.60%
Max. Drawdown-14.10%-11.63%
US Market Correlation0.970.94
Beta(*)0.740.68
Alpha (annualized)2.50%3.98%
R294.92%87.94%
Sharpe Ratio1.181.30
Sortino Ratio1.992.35
Treynor Ratio (%)17.1619.55
Calmar Ratio1.191.62
Active Return-1.06%-0.30%
Tracking Error4.41%5.75%
Information Ratio-0.24-0.05
Skewness-0.34-0.11
Excess Kurtosis1.811.16
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-4.61%-4.29%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-3.78%-3.34%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-6.51%-5.59%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)79.9977.48
Downside Capture Ratio (%)70.3359.94
Safe Withdrawal Rate17.15%17.12%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate9.99%10.57%
Positive Periods70 out of 94 (74.47%)64 out of 94 (68.09%)
Gain/Loss Ratio0.891.31
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEnd80/2070/20/10
COVID-19 StartJan 2020Mar 2020-14.10%-11.63%

Drawdowns for 80/20

Drawdowns for 80/20 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Feb 2020Mar 20202 monthsJul 20204 months6 months-14.10%
2Oct 2018Dec 20183 monthsApr 20194 months7 months-10.89%
3Mar 2015Sep 20157 monthsMar 20166 months1 year 1 month-6.78%
4Sep 2020Oct 20202 monthsNov 20201 month3 months-5.56%
5Feb 2018Mar 20182 monthsJul 20184 months6 months-5.35%
6May 2019May 20191 monthJun 20191 month2 months-4.38%
7Aug 2016Oct 20163 monthsDec 20162 months5 months-2.71%
8Jan 2014Jan 20141 monthFeb 20141 month2 months-1.71%
9Sep 2014Sep 20141 monthOct 20141 month2 months-1.52%
10Jan 2021Jan 20211 monthFeb 20211 month2 months-1.41%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for 70/20/10

Drawdowns for 70/20/10 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Feb 2020Mar 20202 monthsMay 20202 months4 months-11.63%
2Sep 2018Dec 20184 monthsMar 20193 months7 months-9.87%
3Mar 2015Sep 20157 monthsMar 20166 months1 year 1 month-6.28%
4Sep 2020Oct 20202 monthsNov 20201 month3 months-5.86%
5Feb 2018Apr 20183 monthsJul 20183 months6 months-5.00%
6May 2019May 20191 monthJun 20191 month2 months-4.28%
7Aug 2016Nov 20164 monthsFeb 20173 months7 months-3.64%
8Sep 2014Sep 20141 monthOct 20141 month2 months-1.54%
9Jan 2021Jan 20211 monthMar 20212 months3 months-1.27%
10Jan 2014Jan 20141 monthFeb 20141 month2 months-0.94%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
TickerNameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust14.96%13.55%31.22%-4.56%-19.43%1.051.691.00
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF6.73%12.12%27.30%-4.78%-20.09%0.540.94-0.30
GLDSPDR Gold Shares3.69%14.56%24.81%-10.67%-20.76%0.270.44-0.01
NOBLProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats12.86%13.18%26.94%-3.28%-23.23%0.931.470.93
QQQInvesco QQQ Trust22.62%15.88%48.40%-0.12%-16.96%1.322.520.90

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
TickerNameSPYTLTGLDNOBLQQQ80/2070/20/10
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust1.00-0.30-0.000.940.910.980.95
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.301.000.42-0.26-0.19-0.11-0.01
GLDSPDR Gold Shares-0.000.421.000.030.000.090.20
NOBLProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats0.94-0.260.031.000.760.930.89
QQQInvesco QQQ Trust0.91-0.190.000.761.000.910.92

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
TickerName80/2070/20/10
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust$15,850$5,944
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF$1,332$1,332
GLDSPDR Gold Shares$328
NOBLProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats$3,158
QQQInvesco QQQ Trust$7,878

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
TickerName80/2070/20/10
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust102.60%41.00%
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-2.60%-0.27%
GLDSPDR Gold Shares3.16%
NOBLProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats24.95%
QQQInvesco QQQ Trust31.17%

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll Period80/2070/20/10
AverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year12.53%40.69%-4.19%13.69%41.07%-2.53%
3 years11.24%17.01%6.69%12.18%19.00%8.49%
5 years11.21%15.43%6.81%12.16%16.51%8.05%
7 years12.33%13.26%10.83%13.44%14.33%11.96%

80/20 Allocation Drift

Annual allocation drift for 80/20
YearSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) AllocationiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Allocation
201380.00%20.00%
201481.57%18.43%
201579.77%20.23%
201680.26%19.74%
201781.82%18.18%
201883.38%16.62%
201982.95%17.05%
202084.84%15.16%
202184.86%15.14%

70/20/10 Allocation Drift

Annual allocation drift for 70/20/10
YearSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) AllocationiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) AllocationSPDR Gold Shares (GLD) AllocationProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (NOBL) AllocationInvesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) Allocation
201330.00%20.00%10.00%20.00%20.00%
201431.08%18.73%8.92%20.36%20.91%
201530.33%20.51%7.50%20.23%21.43%
201630.31%19.88%6.61%20.05%23.15%
201731.32%18.56%6.59%20.66%22.87%
201831.46%16.72%6.14%20.63%25.05%
201930.81%16.88%6.17%20.47%25.67%
202031.43%14.98%5.66%20.20%27.73%
202129.76%14.16%5.65%17.51%32.92%