Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

Portfolio Model Configuration

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Portfolio Analysis Results (Aug 2010 - Dec 2022)

1: Golden Butterfly Classic

Ticker Name Allocation
VFINX Vanguard 500 Index Investor 20.00%
VBR Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF 20.00%
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 20.00%
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF 20.00%
GLD SPDR Gold Shares 20.00%
Save portfolio »

2: GB w/UGL at 20%

Ticker Name Allocation
VFINX Vanguard 500 Index Investor 20.00%
VBR Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF 20.00%
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 20.00%
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF 20.00%
UGL ProShares Ultra Gold 20.00%
Save portfolio »

3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22%

Ticker Name Allocation
VFINX Vanguard 500 Index Investor 22.00%
VBR Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF 22.00%
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 22.00%
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF 22.00%
UGL ProShares Ultra Gold 12.00%
Save portfolio »

Performance Summary

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioMarket Correlation
1: Golden Butterfly Classic$10,000$22,589 6.78% 7.60%18.06%-12.97%-17.77% 0.821.340.81
2: GB w/UGL at 20%$10,000$22,224 6.64% 9.85%21.41%-14.36%-20.13% 0.641.060.65
3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22%$10,000$23,404 7.09% 8.51%18.99%-15.04%-19.99% 0.771.270.78

Portfolio Growth

   

Annual Returns

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
NameTotal ReturnAnnualized ReturnAnnualized Standard Deviation
3 MonthYear To Date1 year3 year5 year10 yearFull3 year5 year
1: Golden Butterfly Classic5.84%-12.97%-12.97%3.99%4.95%5.67%6.78%11.22%9.58%
2: GB w/UGL at 20%7.22%-14.36%-14.36%3.39%5.25%4.84%6.64%13.08%11.20%
3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22%6.18%-15.04%-15.04%3.52%4.94%5.82%7.09%12.43%10.54%
Trailing return and volatility are as of last full calendar month ending December 2022
Notes and Disclosures
  • IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by Portfolio Visualizer regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
  • Asset allocation and diversification strategies do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
  • Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, commissions, or actual taxes due on investment returns.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • Refer to the related documentation sections for more details on terms and definitions, methodology, and data sources.
  • Portfolio model information represents a blended portfolio consisting of the model's underlying positions and assigned weights provided by the user and rebalanced at the specified schedule. The results were constructed using net of fee mutual fund performance. Portfolio Visualizer does not provide preferential treatment to any specific security or investment.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • Market capitalization refers to the total value of all a company's shares of stock. It is calculated by multiplying the price of a stock by its total number of outstanding shares. Large cap refers to a company with a market capitalization value of more than $10 billion, mid cap refers to a company with a market capitalization value between $2 and $10 billion, and small cap refers to a company with a market capitalization value below $2 billion. For funds and portfolios the equity market capitalization is calculated based on the long position of the equity holdings.
  • Credit quality measures the ability of a bond issuer to repay a bond's interest and principal in a timely manner. Ratings agencies research the financial health of each bond issuer and assign ratings to the bonds being offered. Lower-rated bonds generally offer higher yields to compensate investors for the additional risk. AAA is the highest possible rating that may be assigned to an issuer's bonds by any of the major credit rating agencies. Bonds rated AAA to AA are known as high-grade bonds, bonds rated A to BBB are known as medium-grade bonds, and bonds rated BB to C are known as non-investment grade bonds. An issuer will receive a rating of D if it is already in default on some of its debt. For funds and portfolios the fixed income credit quality break-down is calculated based on the long position of the fixed income holdings.
  • A fixed income maturity date refers to the specific date on which the investor's principal will be repaid. Duration measures a bond's or fixed income portfolio's price sensitivity to interest rate changes. If a bond has a duration of 5 years, and interest rates increase by 1%, the bond's price will decline by approximately 5%. Conversely, if a bond has a duration of 5 years and interest rates fall by 1%, the bond's price will increase by approximately 5%. A fixed income portfolio's duration is computed as the weighted average of individual bond durations held in the portfolio.
  • Compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) is the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio. It is calculated from the portfolio start and end balance and is thus impacted by any cashflows.
  • The time-weighted rate of return (TWRR) is a measure of the compound rate of growth in a portfolio. This is calculated from the holding period returns (e.g. monthly returns), and TWRR will thus not be impacted by cashflows. If there are no external cashflows, TWRR will equal CAGR.
  • The money-weighted rate of return (MWRR) is the internal rate of return (IRR) taking into account cashflows. This is the discount rate at which the present value of cash inflows equals the present value of cash outflows.
  • Total return is the combined return in income and capital appreciation from investment in an asset. Yield measures the current cash income received from investment in an asset. Bonds provide yield in the form of interest payments and stocks through dividends.
  • Standard deviation (Stdev) is used to measure the dispersion of returns around the mean and is often used as a measure of risk. A higher standard deviation implies greater the dispersion of data points around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio, and it is calculated by dividing the mean monthly excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the standard deviation of excess return, and the displayed value is annualized.
  • Sortino Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted return which is a modification of the Sharpe Ratio. While the latter is the ratio of average returns in excess of a risk-free rate divided by the standard deviation of those excess returns, the Sortino Ratio has the same denominator divided by the standard deviation of returns below the risk-free rate.
  • Treynor Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is similar to the Sharpe Ratio, but it uses portfolio beta (systematic risk) as the risk metric in the denominator.
  • Calmar Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is calculated as the annualized return over the past 36 months divided by the maximum drawdown over the past 36 months based on monthly returns.
  • Risk-free returns are calculated based on the Federal Reserve 3-Month Treasury Bill (secondary market) rates.
  • Downside deviation measures the downside volatility of the portfolio returns unlike standard deviation, which includes both upside and downside deviations. Downside deviation is calculated based on negative returns that hurt the portfolio performance.
  • Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other. Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much. Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution or returns from a normal Gaussian distribution shape about its mean. Negative skewness is associated with the left (typically negative returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the right tail; and positive skewness is associated with the right (typically positive returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the left tail.
  • Excess kurtosis is a measure of whether a data distribution is peaked or flat relative to a normal distribution. Distributions with high kurtosis tend to have a distinct peak near the mean, decline rather rapidly, and have heavy or fat tails.
  • A drawdown refers to the decline in value of a single investment or an investment portfolio from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown (Max Drawdown) is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. Drawdown values are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Value at Risk (VaR) measures the scale of loss at a given confidence level. If the 5% VaR is -3% the portfolio return is expected to be greater than -3% 95% of the time and less than -3% 5% of the time. Value at Risk can be calculated directly based on historical returns based on a given percentile or analytically based on the mean and standard deviation of the returns.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measures the scale of the expected loss once the specific Value at Risk (VaR) breakpoint has been breached, i.e., it calculates the average tail loss by taking a weighted average between the value at risk and losses exceeding the value at risk.
  • Beta is a measure of systematic risk and measures the volatility of a particular investment relative to the market or its benchmark. Alpha measures the active return of the investment compared to the market benchmark return. R-squared is the percentage of a portfolio's movements that can be explained by movements in the selected benchmark index.
  • Active return is the investment return minus the return of its benchmark. For periods longer than 12 months this is displayed as annualized value, i.e., annualized investment return minus annualized benchmark return.
  • Tracking error, also known as active risk, is the standard deviation of active return. This is displayed as annualized value based on the standard deviation of monthly active returns.
  • Information ratio is the active return divided by the tracking error. It measures whether the investment outperformed its benchmark consistently.
  • Gain/Loss ratio is a measure of downside risk, and it is calculated as the average positive return in up periods divided by the average negative return in down periods.
  • Upside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was up, and Downside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was down. An upside capture ratio greater than 100 would indicate that the fund outperformed its benchmark when the market was up, and a downside capture ratio below 100 would indicate that the fund lost less than its benchmark when the market was down. To calculate upside capture ratio a new series from the portfolio returns is constructed by dropping all time periods where the benchmark return is less than equal to zero. The up capture is then the quotient of the annualized return of the resulting manager series, divided by the annualized return of the resulting benchmark series. The downside capture ratio is calculated analogously.
  • All risk measures for the portfolio and portfolio assets are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Gross expense ratio reflects the total annual operating expenses paid by each fund. Net expense ratio reflects what investors were charged after waivers, reductions, and reimbursements.
  • Price to earnings (P/E) ratio of a stock is calculated by dividing the current price of the stock by its trailing 12 months' earnings per share. For funds the price to earnings ratio is computed as the weighted average of fund holdings.
  • The annual results for 2010 are based on monthly returns from August to December.
  • The results assume bands based (5.00% absolute, 20.00% relative) rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation.
  • Portfolio cashflows and rebalancing for quarterly and annual periods are aligned with calendar periods.

Annual Returns

Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflation1: Golden Butterfly Classic2: GB w/UGL at 20%3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22%Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL)
ReturnBalanceReturnBalanceReturnBalance
20100.54%9.73%$10,97313.73%$11,37310.94%$11,09415.12%17.62%-4.41%0.21%20.11%41.41%
20112.96%8.98%$11,95911.63%$12,6969.72%$12,1711.97%-4.23%33.96%1.44%9.57%11.72%
20121.74%8.86%$13,0189.14%$13,8579.26%$13,29815.82%18.98%2.63%0.28%6.60%8.01%
20131.50%4.47%$13,600-3.01%$13,4404.00%$13,83032.18%36.55%-13.37%0.21%-28.33%-51.65%
20140.76%9.98%$14,9569.19%$14,67510.52%$15,28513.51%10.55%27.30%0.45%-2.19%-6.91%
20150.73%-2.75%$14,545-5.55%$13,860-3.75%$14,7121.25%-4.76%-1.79%0.43%-10.67%-22.60%
20162.07%9.56%$15,9359.89%$15,23111.46%$16,39811.82%24.90%1.18%0.82%8.03%11.67%
20172.11%11.32%$17,73812.99%$17,20912.13%$18,38821.67%11.80%9.18%0.26%12.81%22.50%
20181.91%-3.82%$17,060-3.75%$16,564-3.55%$17,736-4.52%-12.26%-1.61%1.46%-1.94%-8.02%
20192.29%17.74%$20,08721.41%$20,11018.96%$21,09931.33%22.77%14.12%3.38%17.86%31.11%
20201.36%18.06%$23,71519.99%$24,12918.99%$25,10518.25%5.87%18.15%3.03%24.81%39.04%
20217.04%9.45%$25,9557.55%$25,9519.72%$27,54628.53%28.06%-4.60%-0.72%-4.15%-12.30%
20226.45%-12.97%$22,589-14.36%$22,224-15.04%$23,404-18.23%-9.36%-31.24%-3.88%-0.77%-7.59%
Annual return for 2010 is from 08/01/2010 to 12/31/2010

Monthly Returns

Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
YearMonth1: Golden Butterfly Classic2: GB w/UGL at 20%3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22%Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX)Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL)
ReturnBalanceReturnBalanceReturnBalance
201080.63%$10,0631.77%$10,1770.81%$10,081-4.53%-6.66%8.40%0.24%5.71%11.42%
201094.11%$10,4775.16%$10,7024.68%$10,5528.92%10.43%-2.51%0.12%4.78%9.51%
2010101.38%$10,6212.20%$10,9371.63%$10,7253.79%3.60%-4.47%0.22%3.68%7.05%
2010110.56%$10,6800.95%$11,0410.51%$10,7800.00%2.28%-1.69%-0.20%2.11%3.57%
2010122.74%$10,9733.01%$11,3732.91%$11,0946.67%7.69%-3.68%-0.16%2.44%4.54%
20111-1.29%$10,832-2.50%$11,089-1.50%$10,9272.36%0.60%-3.08%0.13%-6.38%-12.63%
201123.28%$11,1874.24%$11,5593.58%$11,3183.42%4.70%1.65%-0.12%6.00%12.12%
201130.65%$11,2600.83%$11,6550.66%$11,3930.03%1.47%0.03%-0.13%1.60%2.67%
201143.57%$11,6625.30%$12,2734.07%$11,8572.95%2.34%2.34%0.53%8.94%18.26%
20115-0.49%$11,605-0.88%$12,165-0.58%$11,788-1.15%-2.12%3.42%0.36%-1.79%-3.80%
20116-1.75%$11,401-2.32%$11,883-2.03%$11,548-1.67%-2.08%-2.33%-0.00%-2.43%-5.12%
201171.51%$11,5743.35%$12,2811.92%$11,770-2.05%-3.32%4.42%0.29%8.42%17.15%
201181.85%$11,7885.01%$12,8952.14%$12,022-5.45%-8.19%9.66%0.34%12.27%24.49%
20119-3.13%$11,419-5.32%$12,210-3.65%$11,583-7.04%-10.64%13.20%-0.10%-11.06%-21.99%
2011104.95%$11,9845.82%$12,9205.37%$12,20610.91%14.43%-3.84%0.03%5.87%11.30%
2011110.67%$12,0640.85%$13,0300.68%$12,289-0.23%-0.14%1.98%0.04%1.67%2.79%
201112-0.87%$11,959-2.56%$12,696-0.95%$12,1711.02%0.82%3.44%0.05%-10.66%-20.93%
201214.19%$12,4606.88%$13,5695.25%$12,8104.46%6.97%-0.33%0.08%11.40%23.20%
201220.29%$12,497-0.65%$13,4820.03%$12,8144.31%2.55%-2.59%-0.14%-2.96%-6.46%
201230.08%$12,507-0.25%$13,4480.04%$12,8203.28%2.41%-4.23%-0.08%-1.32%-2.91%
201240.63%$12,5850.37%$13,4970.49%$12,883-0.64%-0.99%4.83%0.20%-0.15%-0.83%
20125-1.84%$12,353-3.55%$13,018-2.60%$12,547-6.02%-6.31%9.03%0.06%-6.34%-12.60%
201261.74%$12,5692.15%$13,2981.97%$12,7954.11%4.47%-1.68%-0.10%2.35%4.07%
201271.24%$12,7251.27%$13,4671.26%$12,9561.37%-0.43%3.82%0.22%0.84%1.38%
201281.60%$12,9282.66%$13,8251.99%$13,2142.24%2.99%-1.32%0.01%4.94%9.59%
201291.36%$13,1042.55%$14,1781.85%$13,4582.58%2.80%-2.53%0.02%4.67%9.40%
201210-1.18%$12,950-1.98%$13,897-1.52%$13,254-1.86%-0.70%-0.48%-0.07%-2.94%-6.12%
2012110.57%$13,0230.33%$13,9430.50%$13,3200.56%1.01%1.38%0.05%-0.47%-1.27%
201212-0.04%$13,018-0.62%$13,857-0.16%$13,2980.90%3.34%-2.49%0.02%-2.43%-5.00%
201311.80%$13,2521.63%$14,0831.93%$13,5555.18%6.46%-3.19%0.01%-0.51%-1.41%
201320.12%$13,268-1.04%$13,936-0.18%$13,5311.34%1.62%1.24%0.06%-5.09%-10.10%
201331.77%$13,5032.15%$14,2362.18%$13,8273.74%4.56%-0.42%0.03%0.95%1.81%
20134-0.16%$13,481-1.81%$13,978-0.21%$13,7981.91%0.09%4.68%0.07%-7.56%-15.80%
20135-1.43%$13,288-2.50%$13,628-1.83%$13,5462.33%3.11%-6.76%-0.13%-6.20%-12.55%
20136-3.15%$12,869-5.46%$12,885-3.59%$13,060-1.35%-1.27%-3.27%-0.10%-11.06%-21.29%
201373.41%$13,3084.33%$13,4423.79%$13,5555.07%6.85%-2.26%0.16%7.43%13.60%
20138-0.99%$13,1760.25%$13,475-0.42%$13,498-2.91%-4.17%-1.34%-0.10%5.20%11.18%
201391.17%$13,329-0.08%$13,4650.87%$13,6163.12%5.30%0.66%0.22%-4.78%-9.77%
2013102.14%$13,6141.84%$13,7132.11%$13,9044.59%3.92%1.43%0.07%-0.34%-1.38%
2013110.01%$13,615-1.12%$13,560-0.32%$13,8593.03%2.93%-2.70%0.09%-5.51%-10.93%
201312-0.12%$13,600-0.89%$13,440-0.21%$13,8302.51%2.74%-1.87%-0.18%-3.79%-7.65%
201410.65%$13,6881.20%$13,6020.71%$13,929-3.47%-2.78%6.30%0.20%3.42%6.50%
201423.24%$14,1324.49%$14,2123.69%$14,4424.56%4.97%0.52%0.04%6.27%12.65%
20143-0.08%$14,120-0.80%$14,098-0.21%$14,4130.82%1.31%0.73%-0.11%-3.14%-6.38%
201440.46%$14,1850.57%$14,1790.52%$14,4880.72%-1.13%2.10%0.11%0.49%1.06%
201450.84%$14,3040.16%$14,2020.82%$14,6072.33%1.64%2.95%0.18%-3.05%-6.36%
201462.43%$14,6523.61%$14,7152.77%$15,0112.05%4.32%-0.25%-0.08%6.32%12.68%
20147-1.87%$14,379-2.59%$14,335-2.13%$14,692-1.39%-4.79%0.67%-0.08%-3.63%-7.08%
201482.95%$14,8032.96%$14,7593.20%$15,1623.98%5.12%4.72%0.19%0.38%0.44%
20149-3.06%$14,350-4.16%$14,144-3.43%$14,643-1.41%-5.54%-2.11%-0.07%-6.18%-11.97%
2014101.58%$14,5771.03%$14,2901.68%$14,8882.42%4.85%2.81%0.26%-3.05%-6.50%
2014111.38%$14,7781.32%$14,4781.38%$15,0932.68%1.10%2.97%0.11%-0.49%-1.08%
2014121.21%$14,9561.36%$14,6751.27%$15,285-0.26%1.79%3.25%-0.29%1.31%2.32%
201512.51%$15,3324.39%$15,3193.05%$15,751-3.02%-3.30%9.82%0.63%8.69%17.47%
20152-0.19%$15,304-1.81%$15,042-0.70%$15,6405.74%5.66%-6.14%-0.29%-5.91%-11.19%
20153-0.21%$15,271-0.77%$14,926-0.34%$15,587-1.59%1.30%1.10%0.25%-2.15%-4.82%
20154-0.76%$15,155-0.89%$14,793-0.94%$15,4410.95%-1.30%-3.43%0.03%-0.17%-0.52%
201550.24%$15,1910.29%$14,8360.19%$15,4701.27%1.37%-2.37%0.04%0.56%1.16%
20156-1.75%$14,925-2.19%$14,510-2.07%$15,150-1.93%-1.51%-4.07%0.03%-1.52%-3.49%
20157-0.19%$14,897-1.44%$14,301-0.25%$15,1122.08%-0.95%4.55%0.04%-6.62%-12.99%
20158-1.86%$14,621-1.16%$14,135-1.92%$14,822-6.05%-4.84%-0.69%-0.05%3.71%7.26%
20159-1.17%$14,449-1.47%$13,926-1.24%$14,639-2.48%-3.58%1.97%0.30%-1.80%-3.88%
2015103.40%$14,9413.64%$14,4333.58%$15,1638.42%6.63%-0.41%-0.14%2.28%4.36%
201511-1.10%$14,776-2.36%$14,093-1.32%$14,9620.29%1.32%-0.87%-0.26%-6.75%-13.24%
201512-1.57%$14,545-1.65%$13,860-1.67%$14,712-1.59%-4.90%-0.30%-0.15%-0.45%-1.20%
20161-0.29%$14,5020.80%$13,9700.26%$14,751-4.98%-6.37%5.57%0.65%5.41%11.00%
201622.90%$14,9235.06%$14,6774.02%$15,344-0.15%1.50%3.09%0.11%10.93%22.48%
201632.94%$15,3622.53%$15,0483.25%$15,8436.78%8.94%-0.09%0.14%-0.84%-1.81%
201641.34%$15,5692.26%$15,3891.51%$16,0810.37%2.10%-0.74%0.04%5.11%9.50%
20165-0.42%$15,503-1.92%$15,093-0.64%$15,9781.78%1.40%0.81%-0.12%-6.14%-12.31%
201663.21%$16,0005.20%$15,8783.66%$16,5620.25%0.15%6.93%0.60%8.97%18.16%
201672.50%$16,4012.86%$16,3322.81%$17,0273.68%4.64%2.10%-0.05%1.98%3.80%
20168-0.70%$16,285-1.56%$16,077-0.90%$16,8750.13%0.73%-1.01%-0.23%-3.26%-6.63%
20169-0.08%$16,273-0.06%$16,067-0.13%$16,8530.01%0.30%-1.51%0.13%0.69%0.85%
201610-2.43%$15,877-3.16%$15,559-2.78%$16,384-1.83%-2.92%-4.38%-0.05%-2.94%-6.09%
201611-0.33%$15,825-2.38%$15,189-0.40%$16,3183.70%10.21%-8.21%-0.47%-8.36%-16.31%
2016120.70%$15,9350.27%$15,2310.49%$16,3981.96%2.86%-0.46%0.07%-1.91%-4.02%
201711.67%$16,2002.47%$15,6061.95%$16,7181.88%0.65%0.81%0.11%5.42%10.30%
201722.21%$16,5582.66%$16,0212.40%$17,1193.96%2.01%1.59%0.04%3.18%5.79%
20173-0.32%$16,505-0.39%$15,958-0.36%$17,0580.10%-0.72%-0.65%0.06%-0.43%-0.75%
201740.94%$16,6601.22%$16,1541.09%$17,2441.02%0.40%1.57%0.19%1.73%3.12%
201750.08%$16,6730.06%$16,1620.15%$17,2701.39%-2.40%1.89%0.07%-0.12%-0.45%
201760.43%$16,745-0.05%$16,1540.23%$17,3100.61%2.44%0.79%-0.08%-2.16%-4.54%
201771.04%$16,9191.37%$16,3751.12%$17,5052.04%1.02%-0.66%0.19%2.31%4.35%
201781.10%$17,1051.97%$16,6971.58%$17,7810.29%-1.46%3.41%0.20%4.20%8.29%
201790.53%$17,197-0.35%$16,6380.03%$17,7862.06%4.95%-2.32%-0.19%-3.37%-7.00%
2017100.60%$17,3000.35%$16,6960.47%$17,8702.32%0.86%-0.04%-0.09%-0.75%-1.87%
2017111.42%$17,5461.61%$16,9651.61%$18,1593.06%3.17%0.74%-0.22%0.36%0.51%
2017121.10%$17,7381.44%$17,2091.26%$18,3881.10%0.50%1.81%-0.02%2.11%4.12%
201811.49%$18,0032.26%$17,5991.87%$18,7325.71%1.93%-3.26%-0.29%3.23%6.39%
20182-2.76%$17,505-3.45%$16,992-3.26%$18,120-3.69%-4.74%-3.04%-0.10%-2.08%-4.90%
201830.35%$17,5660.31%$17,0450.29%$18,173-2.56%0.82%2.86%0.25%0.63%0.97%
20184-0.49%$17,479-0.62%$16,939-0.56%$18,0720.37%0.40%-2.09%-0.23%-0.95%-2.00%
201851.61%$17,7611.48%$17,1901.72%$18,3822.39%4.52%2.01%0.35%-1.20%-2.85%
20186-0.39%$17,693-0.99%$17,019-0.55%$18,2810.61%0.36%0.65%0.04%-3.61%-7.58%
201870.57%$17,7940.44%$17,0940.67%$18,4043.71%2.49%-1.44%-0.06%-2.24%-4.62%
201881.13%$17,9960.54%$17,1861.25%$18,6343.25%2.41%1.31%0.35%-2.14%-4.62%
20189-0.93%$17,828-1.12%$16,993-1.02%$18,4440.55%-1.67%-2.86%-0.14%-0.66%-1.53%
201810-3.60%$17,186-3.13%$16,461-3.68%$17,766-6.85%-9.05%-2.93%0.15%2.12%3.60%
2018111.39%$17,4251.38%$16,6881.46%$18,0252.03%2.35%1.79%0.38%0.34%0.44%
201812-2.09%$17,060-0.74%$16,564-1.60%$17,736-9.04%-11.41%5.85%0.76%4.94%9.77%
201914.39%$17,8094.62%$17,3304.54%$18,5428.00%11.16%0.38%0.25%2.89%4.95%
201921.08%$18,0010.73%$17,4560.94%$18,7153.20%3.99%-1.38%0.09%-0.61%-1.55%
201930.90%$18,1630.46%$17,5370.89%$18,8811.94%-1.92%5.57%0.63%-1.60%-3.65%
201941.15%$18,3720.77%$17,6730.98%$19,0654.04%3.91%-1.99%0.18%-0.66%-1.77%
20195-1.25%$18,142-0.69%$17,551-0.96%$18,883-6.36%-8.13%6.84%0.72%1.76%3.03%
201964.61%$18,9796.27%$18,6525.28%$19,8807.03%6.84%0.95%0.46%8.00%16.21%
201970.49%$19,0720.38%$18,7230.49%$19,9771.43%0.75%0.26%-0.06%0.01%-0.30%
201982.58%$19,5654.75%$19,6122.90%$20,557-1.59%-5.44%11.04%0.78%7.91%15.64%
20199-0.24%$19,518-0.81%$19,454-0.41%$20,4741.86%3.98%-2.68%-0.13%-3.39%-7.05%
2019101.12%$19,7371.52%$19,7501.22%$20,7252.15%1.75%-1.11%0.31%2.56%4.62%
2019110.48%$19,832-0.10%$19,7290.36%$20,7993.62%2.48%-0.41%-0.05%-3.21%-6.66%
2019121.29%$20,0871.93%$20,1101.44%$21,0993.01%2.78%-3.20%0.16%3.66%7.00%
202011.89%$20,4672.38%$20,5892.10%$21,541-0.05%-3.37%7.69%0.58%4.50%8.54%
20202-2.26%$20,003-2.75%$20,022-2.53%$20,996-8.24%-10.18%6.63%0.88%-0.64%-1.75%
20203-5.13%$18,977-5.76%$18,868-5.67%$19,804-12.37%-25.08%6.38%1.24%-0.22%-0.59%
202046.93%$20,2938.06%$20,3887.57%$21,30412.81%13.11%1.22%0.27%7.26%12.87%
202052.19%$20,7372.56%$20,9102.37%$21,8104.76%4.80%-1.76%-0.08%2.59%4.34%
202061.49%$21,0462.17%$21,3651.78%$22,1981.98%2.05%0.34%0.02%2.74%5.86%
202074.96%$22,0896.79%$22,8145.48%$23,4135.63%3.29%4.44%0.09%10.79%18.56%
202081.59%$22,4400.85%$23,0091.18%$23,6917.18%4.63%-5.05%-0.02%-0.32%-2.47%
20209-2.45%$21,890-3.08%$22,300-2.56%$23,085-3.81%-3.71%0.77%-0.00%-4.17%-8.51%
202010-0.62%$21,753-0.90%$22,099-0.83%$22,893-2.67%3.14%-3.39%-0.05%-0.52%-1.72%
2020115.54%$22,9594.27%$23,0435.67%$24,19210.94%17.42%1.66%0.02%-5.41%-11.34%
2020123.29%$23,7154.71%$24,1293.77%$25,1053.84%6.80%-1.23%0.04%7.01%14.12%
20211-1.14%$23,444-2.01%$23,645-1.45%$24,741-1.02%2.04%-3.63%0.02%-3.22%-7.07%
202120.08%$23,464-1.29%$23,339-0.10%$24,7152.76%8.79%-5.73%-0.06%-6.26%-12.76%
202130.99%$23,6950.76%$23,5161.05%$24,9754.37%5.31%-5.24%-0.06%-1.14%-2.50%
202143.09%$24,4273.74%$24,3953.43%$25,8325.32%4.01%2.49%0.06%3.56%6.81%
202152.15%$24,9513.84%$25,3312.61%$26,5060.69%2.24%0.00%0.06%7.68%15.72%
20216-0.43%$24,845-2.18%$24,779-0.79%$26,2972.31%-1.02%4.42%-0.17%-7.15%-14.12%
202171.45%$25,2051.90%$25,2491.61%$26,7222.38%-1.65%3.72%0.17%2.53%4.72%
202180.95%$25,4430.89%$25,4741.01%$26,9933.03%2.08%-0.34%-0.03%-0.08%-0.30%
20219-2.75%$24,744-3.52%$24,578-3.16%$26,138-4.66%-2.55%-2.91%-0.10%-3.22%-6.95%
2021103.09%$25,5093.39%$25,4113.43%$27,0356.99%4.56%2.46%-0.34%1.48%2.99%
202111-0.33%$25,424-0.54%$25,273-0.43%$26,919-0.71%-3.02%2.77%-0.06%-0.69%-1.75%
2021122.09%$25,9552.68%$25,9512.33%$27,5464.47%4.90%-2.01%-0.21%3.30%6.33%
20221-3.27%$25,106-3.68%$24,995-3.67%$26,534-5.19%-4.41%-3.91%-0.69%-1.68%-3.78%
202220.48%$25,2261.76%$25,4350.69%$26,718-3.00%1.63%-1.63%-0.43%6.12%12.44%
202230.03%$25,2340.26%$25,5020.04%$26,7293.69%1.63%-5.45%-1.40%1.27%2.21%
20224-5.46%$23,856-5.99%$23,974-6.14%$25,088-8.73%-6.34%-9.42%-0.50%-2.07%-4.67%
20225-0.59%$23,714-1.50%$23,614-0.85%$24,8730.17%1.86%-2.25%0.60%-3.26%-7.09%
20226-4.54%$22,637-4.96%$22,441-5.12%$23,600-8.27%-10.32%-1.27%-0.59%-1.57%-3.55%
202273.72%$23,4793.10%$23,1384.05%$24,5569.21%9.83%2.43%0.41%-2.59%-5.43%
20228-3.02%$22,770-3.72%$22,276-3.45%$23,709-4.09%-2.75%-4.56%-0.81%-2.94%-6.44%
20229-6.27%$21,342-6.95%$20,727-7.04%$22,041-9.22%-9.91%-8.23%-1.19%-2.89%-6.12%
2022102.59%$21,8942.21%$21,1862.84%$22,6678.08%12.00%-5.97%-0.13%-1.78%-4.16%
2022115.49%$23,0976.92%$22,6525.99%$24,0255.58%5.56%7.15%0.69%8.49%17.01%
202212-2.20%$22,589-1.89%$22,224-2.59%$23,404-5.77%-5.67%-2.63%0.12%2.93%5.02%

Returns Based Style Analysis

Returns Based Style Analysis
Style Category1: Golden Butterfly Classic3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22%
Large-cap Value7.58%8.52%
Large-cap Growth6.67%6.48%
Mid-cap Value14.72%15.67%
Mid-cap Growth7.76%9.08%
Small-cap Value0.00%0.00%
Small-cap Growth0.00%0.00%
Global ex-US Developed Markets0.00%0.00%
Emerging Markets8.23%9.94%
Corporate Bonds0.00%0.00%
Long-Term Treasuries17.01%17.98%
Intermediate-Term Treasuries23.59%31.42%
Short-Term Treasuries14.44%0.91%
R Squared87.04%85.36%
Style analysis is based on monthly returns from August 2010 to December 2022 and uses total portfolio return with monthly rebalancing. Returns based style analysis aims to explain the portfolio returns based on asset class exposures, it does not identify the actual portfolio holdings.

Holdings Based Style Analysis for 1: Golden Butterfly Classic

Holdings Based Style Analysis for 1: Golden Butterfly Classic
TickerNameCategoryWeightYieldExpense RatioP/EDurationContribution
SECTTMNetGrossReturnRisk
VFINXVanguard 500 Index InvestorLarge Blend20.00%1.58%1.57%0.14%0.14%19.04$5,12630.96%
VBRVanguard Small-Cap Value ETFSmall Value20.00%2.19%2.03%0.07%0.07%10.13$4,98336.47%
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFLong Government20.00%3.92%2.68%0.15%0.15%17.40$7857.88%
SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETFShort Government20.00%4.30%1.30%0.15%0.15%1.88$1630.80%
GLDSPDR Gold SharesCommodities Focused20.00%0.40%0.40%$1,53323.90%
100.00%2.40%1.52%0.18%0.18%14.599.64$12,589100.00%
Asset Allocation
Equity Market Capitalization
Equity Sectors
Fixed Income Credit Quality
Fixed Income Maturity

Holdings Based Style Analysis for 2: GB w/UGL at 20%

Holdings Based Style Analysis for 2: GB w/UGL at 20%
TickerNameCategoryWeightYieldExpense RatioP/EDurationContribution
SECTTMNetGrossReturnRisk
VFINXVanguard 500 Index InvestorLarge Blend20.00%1.58%1.57%0.14%0.14%19.04$5,06719.28%
VBRVanguard Small-Cap Value ETFSmall Value20.00%2.19%2.03%0.07%0.07%10.13$4,85822.33%
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFLong Government20.00%3.92%2.68%0.15%0.15%17.40$6587.28%
SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETFShort Government20.00%4.30%1.30%0.15%0.15%1.88$1760.71%
UGLProShares Ultra GoldLeveraged Commodities20.00%1.35%1.35%$1,46650.40%
100.00%2.40%1.52%0.37%0.37%14.599.64$12,224100.00%
Asset Allocation
Equity Market Capitalization
Equity Sectors
Fixed Income Credit Quality
Fixed Income Maturity

Holdings Based Style Analysis for 3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22%

Holdings Based Style Analysis for 3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22%
TickerNameCategoryWeightYieldExpense RatioP/EDurationContribution
SECTTMNetGrossReturnRisk
VFINXVanguard 500 Index InvestorLarge Blend22.00%1.58%1.57%0.14%0.14%19.04$5,73329.29%
VBRVanguard Small-Cap Value ETFSmall Value22.00%2.19%2.03%0.07%0.07%10.13$5,51834.37%
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFLong Government22.00%3.92%2.68%0.15%0.15%17.40$7618.23%
SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETFShort Government22.00%4.30%1.30%0.15%0.15%1.88$1970.83%
UGLProShares Ultra GoldLeveraged Commodities12.00%1.35%1.35%$1,19427.28%
100.00%2.64%1.67%0.27%0.27%14.599.64$13,404100.00%
Asset Allocation
Equity Market Capitalization
Equity Sectors
Fixed Income Credit Quality
Fixed Income Maturity

Fund fundamentals data as of 01/27/2023. (c) 2023 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The fund fundamentals information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Risk and Return Metrics

Portfolio return and risk metrics
Metric1: Golden Butterfly Classic2: GB w/UGL at 20%3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22%
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)0.57%0.58%0.60%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)7.09%7.15%7.47%
Geometric Mean (monthly)0.55%0.54%0.57%
Geometric Mean (annualized)6.78%6.64%7.09%
Standard Deviation (monthly)2.19%2.84%2.46%
Standard Deviation (annualized)7.60%9.85%8.51%
Downside Deviation (monthly)1.31%1.68%1.47%
Maximum Drawdown-17.77%-20.13%-19.99%
Stock Market Correlation0.810.650.78
Beta(*)0.410.420.44
Alpha (annualized)1.64%1.50%1.58%
R265.69%42.23%61.21%
Sharpe Ratio0.820.640.77
Sortino Ratio1.341.061.27
Treynor Ratio (%)15.2914.8714.97
Calmar Ratio0.220.170.18
Active Return-5.53%-5.67%-5.23%
Tracking Error9.99%11.48%9.97%
Information Ratio-0.55-0.49-0.52
Skewness-0.200.04-0.19
Excess Kurtosis0.760.010.64
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-3.10%-3.71%-3.53%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-3.06%-4.07%-3.46%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-4.32%-5.29%-4.82%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)39.8539.5742.51
Downside Capture Ratio (%)34.2134.5937.19
Safe Withdrawal Rate11.07%11.06%11.39%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate3.82%3.70%4.08%
Positive Periods94 out of 149 (63.09%)87 out of 149 (58.39%)92 out of 149 (61.74%)
Gain/Loss Ratio1.161.191.18
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns

Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEnd1: Golden Butterfly Classic2: GB w/UGL at 20%3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22%
COVID-19 StartJan 2020Mar 2020-7.28%-8.36%-8.06%

Drawdowns for 1: Golden Butterfly Classic

Drawdowns for 1: Golden Butterfly Classic (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 2022Sep 20229 months-17.77%
2Feb 2020Mar 20202 monthsMay 20202 months4 months-7.28%
3Feb 2015Sep 20158 monthsMar 20166 months1 year 2 months-5.76%
4Feb 2018Dec 201811 monthsMar 20193 months1 year 2 months-5.24%
5Apr 2013Jun 20133 monthsOct 20134 months7 months-4.69%
6Aug 2016Nov 20164 monthsFeb 20173 months7 months-3.51%
7Sep 2011Sep 20111 monthOct 20111 month2 months-3.13%
8Sep 2020Oct 20202 monthsNov 20201 month3 months-3.06%
9Sep 2014Sep 20141 monthDec 20143 months4 months-3.06%
10Sep 2021Sep 20211 monthOct 20211 month2 months-2.75%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for 2: GB w/UGL at 20%

Drawdowns for 2: GB w/UGL at 20% (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 2022Sep 20229 months-20.13%
2Feb 2015Dec 201511 monthsApr 20164 months1 year 3 months-9.53%
3Apr 2013Jun 20133 monthsJun 20141 year1 year 3 months-9.49%
4Feb 2020Mar 20202 monthsMay 20202 months4 months-8.36%
5Aug 2016Nov 20164 monthsJul 20178 months1 year-7.00%
6Feb 2018Oct 20189 monthsApr 20196 months1 year 3 months-6.47%
7Sep 2011Sep 20111 monthOct 20111 month2 months-5.32%
8Sep 2014Sep 20141 monthJan 20154 months5 months-4.16%
9Feb 2012May 20124 monthsAug 20123 months7 months-4.07%
10Sep 2020Oct 20202 monthsNov 20201 month3 months-3.96%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for 3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22%

Drawdowns for 3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22% (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 2022Sep 20229 months-19.99%
2Feb 2020Mar 20202 monthsMay 20202 months4 months-8.06%
3Feb 2015Sep 20158 monthsMar 20166 months1 year 2 months-7.06%
4Apr 2013Jun 20133 monthsOct 20134 months7 months-5.54%
5Feb 2018Dec 201811 monthsMar 20193 months1 year 2 months-5.32%
6Aug 2016Nov 20164 monthsFeb 20173 months7 months-4.17%
7Sep 2011Sep 20111 monthOct 20111 month2 months-3.65%
8Sep 2014Sep 20141 monthDec 20143 months4 months-3.43%
9Sep 2020Oct 20202 monthsNov 20201 month3 months-3.37%
10Sep 2021Sep 20211 monthOct 20211 month2 months-3.16%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
TickerNameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioMarket Correlation
VFINXVanguard 500 Index Investor12.63%14.63%32.18%-18.23%-23.95%0.841.341.00
VBRVanguard Small-Cap Value ETF10.77%18.61%36.55%-12.26%-35.27%0.610.910.93
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF2.56%13.50%33.96%-31.24%-41.64%0.210.33-0.23
SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF0.58%1.13%3.38%-3.88%-5.36%-0.04-0.05-0.07
GLDSPDR Gold Shares3.15%16.03%24.81%-28.33%-42.91%0.230.360.11
UGLProShares Ultra Gold0.81%31.92%41.41%-51.65%-73.45%0.160.250.10

Portfolio Asset Performance

Performance of portfolio assets
NameTotal ReturnAnnualized ReturnExpense Ratio
3 MonthYear To Date1 year3 year5 year10 yearNetGross
Vanguard 500 Index Investor7.52%-18.23%-18.23%7.51%9.28%12.41%0.14%0.14%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF11.52%-9.36%-9.36%7.11%5.77%10.27%0.07%0.07%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.89%-31.24%-31.24%-8.15%-2.74%0.40%0.15%0.15%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF0.68%-3.88%-3.88%-0.56%0.62%0.53%0.15%0.15%
SPDR Gold Shares9.68%-0.77%-0.77%5.88%6.53%0.46%0.40%0.40%
ProShares Ultra Gold17.77%-7.59%-7.59%4.06%6.33%-4.25%1.35%1.35%
Trailing returns as of last calendar month ending December 2022

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
TickerNameVFINXVBRTLTSHYGLDUGL1: Golden Butterfly Classic2: GB w/UGL at 20%3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22%
VFINXVanguard 500 Index Investor1.000.91-0.21-0.060.110.100.810.650.78
VBRVanguard Small-Cap Value ETF0.911.00-0.34-0.160.070.060.750.590.72
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.21-0.341.000.610.250.250.220.260.24
SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.06-0.160.611.000.300.300.270.310.28
GLDSPDR Gold Shares0.110.070.250.301.001.000.570.780.61
UGLProShares Ultra Gold0.100.060.250.301.001.000.560.770.61

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
TickerName1: Golden Butterfly Classic2: GB w/UGL at 20%3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22%
VFINXVanguard 500 Index Investor$5,126$5,067$5,733
VBRVanguard Small-Cap Value ETF$4,983$4,858$5,518
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF$785$658$761
SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF$163$176$197
GLDSPDR Gold Shares$1,533
UGLProShares Ultra Gold$1,466$1,194
Return attribution decomposes portfolio gains into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to returns by each of the assets.

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
TickerName1: Golden Butterfly Classic2: GB w/UGL at 20%3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22%
VFINXVanguard 500 Index Investor30.96%19.28%29.29%
VBRVanguard Small-Cap Value ETF36.47%22.33%34.37%
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF7.88%7.28%8.23%
SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF0.80%0.71%0.83%
GLDSPDR Gold Shares23.90%
UGLProShares Ultra Gold50.40%27.28%
Risk attribution decomposes portfolio risk into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to overall volatility by each of the assets.

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll Period1: Golden Butterfly Classic2: GB w/UGL at 20%3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22%
AverageHighLowAverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year7.10%24.86%-14.17%6.85%26.71%-16.63%7.47%26.11%-16.16%
3 years7.16%15.01%3.02%6.62%16.14%-0.59%7.55%15.81%2.49%
5 years6.75%10.27%4.41%6.22%11.73%2.84%7.15%11.28%4.38%
7 years6.78%8.35%4.98%6.27%8.72%3.52%7.20%8.92%5.27%
10 years7.26%8.35%5.00%6.69%8.60%3.87%7.64%8.92%5.06%

Annualized Rolling Return - 3 Years

Annualized Rolling Return - 5 Years

1: Golden Butterfly Classic Rebalancing Events

Rebalancing dates for 1: golden butterfly classic
#DateAllocation
108/31/2011Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 19.17%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 18.57%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 18.92%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 17.24%
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): 26.11%
202/28/2013Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 22.79%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 23.54%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 20.53%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 17.84%
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): 15.30%
311/30/2013Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 23.58%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 23.94%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 17.55%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 19.55%
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): 15.37%
401/31/2015Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 20.04%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 19.51%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 24.36%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 17.92%
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): 18.17%
510/31/2017Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 24.16%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 23.51%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 17.07%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 17.93%
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): 17.33%
603/31/2020Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 19.14%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 13.24%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 25.65%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 19.60%
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): 22.37%
711/30/2020Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 23.42%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 25.20%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 16.19%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 16.57%
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): 18.61%
803/31/2021Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 21.36%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 24.20%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 16.48%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 19.37%
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): 18.60%
910/31/2022Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 21.54%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 21.58%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 15.81%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 20.51%
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): 20.56%

2: GB w/UGL at 20% Rebalancing Events

Rebalancing dates for 2: gb w/ugl at 20%
#DateAllocation
111/30/2010Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 19.55%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 19.78%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 17.98%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 18.18%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 24.50%
208/31/2011Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 17.92%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 17.16%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 19.24%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 17.34%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 28.34%
312/31/2011Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 21.11%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 20.91%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 23.33%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 20.32%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 14.33%
403/31/2013Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 22.84%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 24.00%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 17.87%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 17.90%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 17.38%
505/31/2013Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 21.79%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 21.56%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 20.39%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 20.88%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 15.38%
611/30/2013Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 22.48%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 22.89%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 18.63%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 20.17%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 15.84%
711/30/2014Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 21.86%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 20.90%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 22.66%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 18.84%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 15.74%
807/31/2018Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 24.76%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 24.23%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 18.14%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 17.14%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 15.73%
908/31/2019Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 18.50%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 15.95%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 22.07%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 18.24%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 25.25%
1003/31/2020Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 18.55%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 15.06%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 23.56%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 21.42%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 21.41%
1107/31/2020Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 21.06%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 20.67%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 17.23%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 16.59%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 24.45%
1211/30/2020Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 22.04%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 24.16%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 18.61%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 19.79%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 15.40%
1303/31/2021Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 21.60%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 24.47%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 16.66%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 19.59%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 17.68%

3: GB w/UGL at 12%, others at 22% Rebalancing Events

Rebalancing dates for 3: gb w/ugl at 12%, others at 22%
#DateAllocation
110/31/2010Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 22.14%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 21.91%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 20.71%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 20.63%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 14.61%
207/31/2011Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 22.19%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 22.38%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 20.19%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 20.18%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 15.06%
308/31/2011Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 20.37%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 19.77%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 23.62%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 21.61%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 14.63%
412/31/2011Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 22.58%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 22.37%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 24.95%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 21.74%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 8.36%
504/30/2013Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 25.33%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 26.14%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 20.35%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 19.49%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 8.69%
606/30/2013Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 23.46%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 23.66%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 20.96%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 23.19%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 8.73%
708/31/2013Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 21.71%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 21.79%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 20.53%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 21.30%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 14.66%
811/30/2013Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 23.81%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 24.13%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 21.28%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 21.51%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 9.26%
910/31/2014Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 23.27%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 22.60%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 24.06%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 20.57%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 9.49%
1011/30/2015Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 23.07%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 22.56%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 22.93%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 21.98%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 9.47%
1102/29/2016Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 20.03%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 19.39%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 23.28%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 21.58%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 15.72%
1211/30/2016Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 23.91%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 26.43%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 19.32%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 20.68%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 9.66%
1309/30/2018Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 26.67%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 23.82%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 19.90%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 19.56%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 10.05%
1406/30/2019Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 20.90%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 19.46%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 23.58%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 21.16%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 14.89%
1503/31/2020Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 19.67%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 15.25%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 27.87%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 22.91%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 14.30%
1607/31/2020Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 23.69%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 23.25%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 19.39%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 18.67%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 15.00%
1711/30/2020Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 23.70%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 25.98%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 20.01%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 21.28%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 9.03%
1803/31/2021Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX): 23.49%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): 26.61%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): 18.12%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): 21.30%
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): 10.49%