Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks. You can analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, style exposures, and drawdowns. The results cover both returns and fund fundamentals based portfolio style analysis along with risk and return decomposition by each portfolio asset. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

The related asset class level portfolio modeling tool allows you to analyze and compare asset class level portfolios with a longer time horizon starting from 1972.

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Portfolio Analysis Results (Sep 2018 - Mar 2021)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Ticker Name Allocation
NTSX WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced 100.00%
Save portfolio »
Portfolio 2
Ticker Name Allocation
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 90.00%
IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF 20.00%
IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF 40.00%
CASHX Cash -50.00%
Save portfolio »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$10,000$14,973 16.91% 16.83%32.15%-11.24%-14.63% 0.941.600.98
Portfolio 2$10,000$15,093 17.28% 16.28%31.78%-10.51%-13.61% 0.981.680.98
   

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
Name3 MonthYTD1 yearFull
Portfolio 12.24%2.24%46.55%16.91%
Portfolio 22.98%2.98%45.76%17.28%
Trailing annualized returns are for full months ending in March 2021 excluding portfolio cashflows.
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • The annual results for 2018 are based on monthly returns from September to December
  • The annual results for 2021 are based on monthly returns from January to March
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdown analysis is calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The results assume quarterly rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
  • Portfolio cashflows and rebalancing for quarterly and annual periods are aligned with calendar periods.
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationPortfolio 1Portfolio 2WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced (NTSX)SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI)iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)Cash (CASHX)
ReturnBalanceReturnBalance
2018-0.36%-11.24%$8,876-10.51%$8,949-11.24%-13.01%2.01%2.60%0.74%
20192.29%32.15%$11,73031.78%$11,79232.15%31.22%5.70%8.03%2.13%
20201.36%24.85%$14,64524.30%$14,65724.85%18.37%6.95%10.01%0.44%
20210.98%2.24%$14,9732.98%$15,0932.24%6.35%-2.20%-5.73%0.02%
Annual return for 2018 is from 09/01/2018 to 12/31/2018 and annual return for 2021 is from 01/01/2021 to 03/31/2021
Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
YearMonthPortfolio 1Portfolio 2WisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced (NTSX)SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI)iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)Cash (CASHX)
ReturnBalanceReturnBalance
20189-0.12%$9,988-0.17%$9,983-0.12%0.59%-0.66%-1.20%0.17%
201810-5.95%$9,394-6.42%$9,343-5.95%-6.91%0.07%-0.30%0.18%
2018111.49%$9,5342.30%$9,5581.49%1.85%0.82%1.33%0.19%
201812-6.90%$8,876-6.37%$8,949-6.90%-8.79%1.78%2.80%0.19%
201917.86%$9,5747.47%$9,6177.86%8.01%0.52%0.65%0.20%
201922.48%$9,8112.60%$9,8672.48%3.24%-0.22%-0.52%0.20%
201932.86%$10,0922.80%$10,1432.86%1.81%1.56%2.66%0.20%
201943.45%$10,4403.36%$10,4843.45%4.09%-0.05%-0.52%0.20%
20195-4.27%$9,994-4.35%$10,028-4.27%-6.38%1.81%3.05%0.20%
201966.63%$10,6576.75%$10,7056.63%6.96%0.87%1.22%0.19%
201971.33%$10,7991.26%$10,8401.33%1.51%-0.16%0.04%0.17%
201980.40%$10,8420.38%$10,8810.40%-1.67%2.09%3.95%0.17%
201991.09%$10,9591.04%$10,9941.09%1.95%-0.58%-1.19%0.16%
2019101.65%$11,1402.05%$11,2191.65%2.21%0.29%0.19%0.15%
2019113.07%$11,4822.86%$11,5393.07%3.62%-0.37%-0.69%0.13%
2019122.16%$11,7302.19%$11,7922.16%2.90%-0.16%-0.93%0.13%
202012.03%$11,9681.65%$11,9872.03%-0.04%1.84%3.47%0.13%
20202-6.55%$11,184-5.48%$11,330-6.55%-7.92%1.89%2.96%0.13%
20203-8.64%$10,217-8.60%$10,355-8.64%-12.46%2.49%3.72%0.10%
2020411.76%$11,41911.56%$11,55211.76%12.70%0.12%0.27%0.01%
202055.04%$11,9944.50%$12,0725.04%4.76%0.32%0.33%0.01%
202061.34%$12,1541.65%$12,2711.34%1.78%0.12%0.04%0.01%
202076.08%$12,8945.71%$12,9726.08%5.89%0.38%0.85%0.01%
202086.26%$13,7015.87%$13,7336.26%6.98%-0.27%-0.97%0.01%
20209-3.17%$13,266-3.28%$13,283-3.17%-3.74%0.08%0.33%0.01%
202010-3.22%$12,840-2.89%$12,899-3.22%-2.49%-0.44%-1.38%0.01%
20201110.43%$14,1799.99%$14,18810.43%10.88%0.14%0.34%0.01%
2020123.29%$14,6453.31%$14,6573.29%3.71%0.11%-0.24%0.01%
20211-1.42%$14,437-1.41%$14,450-1.42%-1.02%-0.28%-1.09%0.01%
202120.61%$14,5251.34%$14,6440.61%2.78%-1.10%-2.36%0.01%
202133.09%$14,9733.07%$15,0933.09%4.54%-0.84%-2.39%0.00%

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1
TickerNameCategoryWeightYieldFeesP/EReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
NTSXWisdomTree 90/60 US BalancedLarge Blend100.00%0.98%0.20%29.20$4,973100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Fixed Income Maturity

Fund fundamentals data as of 04/14/2021. (c) 2021 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The fund fundamentals information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)1.42%1.44%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)18.49%18.76%
Geometric Mean (monthly)1.31%1.34%
Geometric Mean (annualized)16.91%17.28%
Volatility (monthly)4.86%4.70%
Volatility (annualized)16.83%16.28%
Downside Deviation (monthly)2.79%2.70%
Max. Drawdown-14.63%-13.61%
US Market Correlation0.980.98
Beta(*)0.790.77
Alpha (annualized)4.09%4.69%
R295.76%96.45%
Sharpe Ratio0.940.98
Sortino Ratio1.601.68
Treynor Ratio (%)19.9120.81
Active Return1.67%2.03%
Tracking Error5.50%5.66%
Information Ratio0.300.36
Skewness-0.12-0.16
Excess Kurtosis0.020.09
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-6.73%-6.39%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-6.57%-6.28%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-7.77%-7.51%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)83.6283.36
Downside Capture Ratio (%)72.1670.43
Safe Withdrawal Rate37.08%37.28%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate11.35%11.59%
Positive Periods22 out of 31 (70.97%)22 out of 31 (70.97%)
Gain/Loss Ratio0.860.88
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Feb 2020Mar 20202 monthsMay 20202 months4 months-14.63%
2Sep 2018Dec 20184 monthsMar 20193 months7 months-11.24%
3Sep 2020Oct 20202 monthsNov 20201 month3 months-6.29%
4May 2019May 20191 monthJun 20191 month2 months-4.27%
5Jan 2021Jan 20211 monthMar 20212 months3 months-1.42%

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Feb 2020Mar 20202 monthsMay 20202 months4 months-13.61%
2Sep 2018Dec 20184 monthsMar 20193 months7 months-10.51%
3Sep 2020Oct 20202 monthsNov 20201 month3 months-6.07%
4May 2019May 20191 monthJun 20191 month2 months-4.35%
5Jan 2021Jan 20211 monthMar 20212 months3 months-1.41%

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
TickerNameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
NTSXWisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced16.91%16.83%32.15%-11.24%-14.63%0.941.600.98
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust15.07%19.63%31.22%-13.01%-19.43%0.751.151.00
IEIiShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF4.77%3.29%6.95%-2.20%-2.57%1.082.69-0.52
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF5.54%6.09%10.01%-5.73%-7.54%0.721.47-0.46
CASHXCash1.28%0.29%2.13%0.02%0.00%N/AN/A-0.29

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
TickerNameNTSXSPYIEIIEFCASHXPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
NTSXWisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced1.000.98-0.36-0.30-0.231.001.00
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust0.981.00-0.51-0.46-0.270.980.99
IEIiShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.36-0.511.000.990.40-0.36-0.36
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.30-0.460.991.000.41-0.30-0.30
CASHXCash-0.23-0.270.400.411.00-0.23-0.23

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
NTSXWisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced$4,973
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust$4,476
IEIiShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF$247
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF$540
CASHXCash-$170

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
NTSXWisdomTree 90/60 US Balanced100.00%
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust105.71%
IEIiShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.45%
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-4.46%
CASHXCash0.20%

Annual Asset Returns