Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks. You can analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, style exposures, and drawdowns. The results cover both returns and fund fundamentals based portfolio style analysis along with risk and return decomposition by each portfolio asset. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

The related asset class level portfolio modeling tool allows you to analyze and compare asset class level portfolios with a longer time horizon starting from 1972.

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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2011 - Dec 2019)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Ticker Name Allocation
NUGT Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X ETF 100.00%
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Portfolio 2
Ticker Name Allocation
GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF 100.00%
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Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$50,000$118 -48.96% 105.62%100.67%-95.00%-99.91% -0.14-0.220.03
Portfolio 2$50,000$25,300 -7.29% 35.41%52.92%-54.02%-77.47% -0.06-0.090.03
   

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
NameAnnualized ReturnAnnualized Volatility
3 Month1 year3 year5 yearFull3 year5 year
Portfolio 125.65%100.67%4.91%-16.94%-48.96%72.28%115.97%
Portfolio 210.38%39.79%12.60%10.45%-7.29%23.72%36.87%
Trailing annualized return and volatility are for full months ending in December 2019 excluding portfolio cashflows.
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdown analysis is calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X ETF (NUGT)VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
ReturnBalanceReturnBalance
20112.96%-47.85%$26,074-16.10%$41,952-47.85%-16.10%
20121.74%-43.94%$14,616-8.87%$38,231-43.94%-8.87%
20131.50%-95.00%$730-54.02%$17,577-95.00%-54.02%
20140.76%-59.28%$297-12.41%$15,395-59.28%-12.41%
20150.73%-78.24%$64.70-24.72%$11,589-78.24%-24.72%
20162.07%57.33%$10252.92%$17,72157.33%52.92%
20172.11%3.73%$10611.97%$19,8433.73%11.97%
20181.91%-44.52%$58.58-8.79%$18,099-44.52%-8.79%
20192.29%100.67%$11839.79%$25,300100.67%39.79%
Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
YearMonthPortfolio 1 ReturnPortfolio 2 ReturnDirexion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X ETF (NUGT)VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
20111-23.52%-12.28%-23.52%-12.28%
2011222.38%10.96%22.38%10.96%
201130.11%0.45%0.11%0.45%
201146.43%3.49%6.43%3.49%
20115-13.33%-6.51%-13.33%-6.51%
20116-12.57%-6.12%-12.57%-6.12%
201178.04%4.21%8.04%4.21%
2011820.12%10.39%20.12%10.39%
20119-24.25%-12.12%-24.25%-12.12%
20111011.57%6.60%11.57%6.60%
2011113.11%2.69%3.11%2.69%
201112-38.98%-14.62%-38.98%-14.62%
2012127.80%9.78%27.80%9.78%
20122-6.64%-1.88%-6.64%-1.88%
20123-29.94%-10.58%-29.94%-10.58%
20124-19.80%-6.36%-19.80%-6.36%
20125-19.36%-5.63%-19.36%-5.63%
201263.21%2.26%3.21%2.26%
20127-13.92%-4.33%-13.92%-4.33%
2012837.23%11.93%37.23%11.93%
2012937.36%11.99%37.36%11.99%
201210-6.60%-1.47%-6.60%-1.47%
201211-29.18%-10.11%-29.18%-10.11%
201212-6.40%-1.43%-6.40%-1.43%
20131-29.17%-10.28%-29.17%-10.28%
20132-28.96%-10.14%-28.96%-10.14%
201331.81%1.20%1.81%1.20%
20134-53.95%-19.79%-53.95%-19.79%
20135-13.76%-2.83%-13.76%-2.83%
20136-47.49%-16.98%-47.49%-16.98%
2013725.43%10.21%25.43%10.21%
201383.44%4.22%3.44%4.22%
20139-33.89%-11.06%-33.89%-11.06%
201310-4.02%0.32%-4.02%0.32%
201311-32.42%-11.24%-32.42%-11.24%
201312-15.92%-4.27%-15.92%-4.27%
2014133.27%11.12%33.27%11.12%
2014229.78%10.22%29.78%10.22%
20143-26.91%-8.77%-26.91%-8.77%
201445.02%2.12%5.02%2.12%
20145-20.25%-6.68%-20.25%-6.68%
2014659.34%17.56%59.34%17.56%
20147-7.66%-2.04%-7.66%-2.04%
201487.12%3.01%7.12%3.01%
20149-49.98%-19.97%-49.98%-19.97%
201410-52.27%-19.43%-52.27%-19.43%
2014119.25%6.68%9.25%6.68%
201412-6.45%0.80%-6.45%0.80%
2015166.31%21.27%66.31%21.27%
20152-15.57%-4.53%-15.57%-4.53%
20153-39.89%-14.29%-39.89%-14.29%
2015429.51%10.25%29.51%10.25%
20155-9.84%-2.64%-9.84%-2.64%
20156-26.27%-9.30%-26.27%-9.30%
20157-57.71%-22.58%-57.71%-22.58%
20158-3.21%2.62%-3.21%2.62%
20159-13.25%-2.62%-13.25%-2.62%
20151020.45%8.88%20.45%8.88%
201511-26.64%-8.02%-26.64%-8.02%
201512-4.60%0.55%-4.60%0.55%
201615.72%3.57%5.72%3.57%
20162126.10%36.38%126.10%36.38%
201630.86%3.04%0.86%3.04%
20164103.40%29.34%103.40%29.34%
20165-38.63%-12.58%-38.63%-12.58%
2016672.60%22.72%72.60%22.72%
2016727.27%10.39%27.27%10.39%
20168-44.58%-16.67%-44.58%-16.67%
201696.41%3.69%6.41%3.69%
201610-25.73%-7.23%-25.73%-7.23%
201611-43.60%-15.05%-43.60%-15.05%
201612-3.66%0.72%-3.66%0.72%
2017145.03%14.39%45.03%14.39%
20172-14.44%-4.51%-14.44%-4.51%
20173-5.17%-0.18%-5.17%-0.18%
20174-9.34%-2.54%-9.34%-2.54%
201753.80%2.07%3.80%2.07%
20176-10.58%-2.69%-10.58%-2.69%
201778.39%3.53%8.39%3.53%
2017821.65%8.14%21.65%8.14%
20179-20.20%-7.12%-20.20%-7.12%
201710-8.48%-2.09%-8.48%-2.09%
201711-2.75%-0.04%-2.75%-0.04%
20171211.86%4.25%11.86%4.25%
201812.18%2.19%2.18%2.19%
20182-29.76%-10.11%-29.76%-10.11%
201837.57%2.95%7.57%2.95%
201843.32%1.36%3.32%1.36%
201850.04%0.27%0.04%0.27%
20186-3.53%-0.13%-3.53%-0.13%
20187-13.19%-4.62%-13.19%-4.62%
20188-37.03%-12.83%-37.03%-12.83%
20189-2.63%-0.16%-2.63%-0.16%
2018102.32%2.21%2.32%2.21%
2018110.53%0.85%0.53%0.85%
20181231.65%11.04%31.65%11.04%
2019121.94%7.59%21.94%7.59%
20192-7.26%-1.98%-7.26%-1.98%
201930.14%0.81%0.14%0.81%
20194-20.67%-6.82%-20.67%-6.82%
201958.79%3.35%8.79%3.35%
2019660.89%18.39%60.89%18.39%
201977.18%3.68%7.18%3.68%
2019838.13%12.68%38.13%12.68%
20199-31.40%-10.55%-31.40%-10.55%
20191013.24%5.39%13.24%5.39%
201911-12.33%-3.80%-12.33%-3.80%
20191226.56%8.87%26.56%8.87%

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 1
TickerNameCategoryWeightFeesP/EReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
NUGTDirexion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X ETFLeveraged Equity100.00%1.14%12.98-$49,882100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 2

Holdings Based Style Analysis for Portfolio 2
TickerNameCategoryWeightYieldFeesP/EReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
GDXVanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETFEquity Precious Metals100.00%0.70%0.53%20.02-$24,700100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Fund fundamentals data as of 03/05/2021. (c) 2021 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The fund fundamentals information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)-1.15%-0.12%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)-12.93%-1.43%
Geometric Mean (monthly)-5.45%-0.63%
Geometric Mean (annualized)-48.96%-7.29%
Volatility (monthly)30.49%10.22%
Volatility (annualized)105.62%35.41%
Downside Deviation (monthly)19.18%6.90%
Max. Drawdown-99.91%-77.47%
US Market Correlation0.030.03
Beta(*)0.230.10
Alpha (annualized)-16.78%-2.74%
R20.07%0.12%
Sharpe Ratio-0.14-0.06
Sortino Ratio-0.22-0.09
Treynor Ratio (%)-61.32-20.21
Calmar Ratio0.070.51
Active Return-61.84%-20.17%
Tracking Error105.98%36.99%
Information Ratio-0.58-0.55
Skewness1.190.51
Excess Kurtosis3.081.16
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-44.24%-16.10%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-51.30%-16.93%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-51.00%-19.24%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)-155.36-24.77
Downside Capture Ratio (%)146.329.56
Safe Withdrawal Rate0.03%3.97%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate0.00%0.00%
Positive Periods50 out of 108 (46.30%)55 out of 108 (50.93%)
Gain/Loss Ratio1.050.93
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 2011Sep 20187 years 9 months-99.91%

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Sep 2011Sep 20154 years 1 month-77.47%
2Jan 2011Jan 20111 monthApr 20113 months4 months-12.28%
3May 2011Jun 20112 monthsAug 20112 months4 months-12.23%

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
TickerNameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
NUGTDirexion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X ETF-48.96%105.62%100.67%-95.00%-99.91%-0.14-0.220.03
GDXVanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF-7.29%35.41%52.92%-54.02%-77.47%-0.06-0.090.03

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
TickerNameNUGTGDXPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
NUGTDirexion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X ETF1.000.991.000.99
GDXVanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF0.991.000.991.00

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
NUGTDirexion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X ETF-$49,882
GDXVanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF-$24,700

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
NUGTDirexion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X ETF100.00%
GDXVanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF100.00%

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
AverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year-28.33%367.96%-95.00%-4.46%124.35%-54.02%
3 years-50.36%4.91%-85.19%-8.22%17.50%-35.95%
5 years-54.26%-16.94%-73.55%-8.38%11.03%-25.35%
7 years-57.01%-49.79%-63.25%-10.72%-5.73%-15.40%