Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected mutual funds, ETFs and stocks to analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, standard deviation, annual returns and rolling returns. The results include a visualization of the portfolio growth chart and rolling returns, CAGR, standard deviation, Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, annual returns and inflation adjusted returns. A periodic contribution or withdrawal can also be specified together with the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy. You can also analyze and compare asset class based lazy portfolios with a longer time horizon starting from 1972.

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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2010 - Dec 2015)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Ticker Name Allocation
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF 50.00%
EET ProShares Ultra MSCI Emerging Markets 50.00%
Save portfolio »
Portfolio 2
Ticker Name Allocation
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF 100.00%
Save portfolio »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$10,000$8,355 -2.95% 19.31%17.59%-18.64%-30.83% -0.06-0.090.79
Portfolio 2$10,000$8,736 -2.23% 19.84%19.10%-18.82%-29.09% -0.02-0.020.80
   
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. See Disclaimer and Terms of Use
  • The entered time period is automatically adjusted based on the available return data for the specified assets
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (1-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdowns are calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The backtested results include quarterly rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
  • The results use total return and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested. Taxes and transaction fees are not included
  • Portfolio cashflows and rebalancing for quarterly and annual periods are aligned with calendar periods.
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationReturnBalanceiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY)ProShares Ultra MSCI Emerging Markets (EET)iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)
Portfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 1Portfolio 2
20101.50%15.98%16.51%$11,598$11,6512.28%25.17%16.51%
20112.96%-18.64%-18.82%$9,436$9,4581.44%-41.65%-18.82%
20121.74%17.59%19.10%$11,096$11,2650.28%33.95%19.10%
20131.50%-5.08%-3.69%$10,532$10,8490.21%-11.36%-3.69%
20140.76%-5.08%-3.93%$9,997$10,4230.45%-10.98%-3.93%
20150.73%-16.42%-16.18%$8,355$8,7360.43%-33.42%-16.18%
Monthly returns for the configured portfolios
YearMonthReturnBalanceiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY)ProShares Ultra MSCI Emerging Markets (EET)iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)
Portfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 1Portfolio 2
20101-6.63%-7.76%$9,337$9,2240.80%-14.06%-7.76%
201020.83%1.78%$9,414$9,3880.16%1.62%1.78%
201037.36%8.11%$10,107$10,149-0.27%16.17%8.11%
201040.08%-0.17%$10,114$10,1330.30%-0.15%-0.17%
20105-9.50%-9.39%$9,153$9,1810.45%-19.50%-9.39%
20106-1.42%-1.40%$9,024$9,0520.42%-3.72%-1.40%
2010710.51%10.93%$9,972$10,0420.19%20.82%10.93%
20108-3.54%-3.24%$9,618$9,7170.24%-6.68%-3.24%
2010912.80%11.76%$10,849$10,8590.12%24.10%11.76%
2010103.08%3.02%$11,183$11,1870.22%5.94%3.02%
201011-3.19%-2.91%$10,827$10,862-0.20%-6.01%-2.91%
2010127.12%7.27%$11,598$11,651-0.16%14.44%7.27%
20111-3.91%-3.84%$11,145$11,2030.13%-7.94%-3.84%
20112-0.23%-0.04%$11,119$11,198-0.12%-0.35%-0.04%
201135.64%6.29%$11,746$11,903-0.13%11.93%6.29%
201142.83%2.73%$12,079$12,2280.53%5.12%2.73%
20115-3.03%-2.94%$11,713$11,8680.36%-6.27%-2.94%
20116-1.21%-0.93%$11,571$11,759-0.00%-2.45%-0.93%
20117-1.05%-1.03%$11,450$11,6370.29%-2.38%-1.03%
20118-9.82%-9.25%$10,325$10,5600.34%-20.27%-9.25%
20119-14.57%-17.89%$8,821$8,671-0.10%-33.27%-17.89%
20111015.86%16.27%$10,220$10,0810.03%31.68%16.27%
201111-3.02%-1.96%$9,911$9,8840.04%-5.35%-1.96%
201112-4.79%-4.30%$9,436$9,4580.05%-8.67%-4.30%
2012110.98%10.99%$10,473$10,4980.08%21.89%10.99%
201225.46%5.27%$11,044$11,051-0.14%10.05%5.27%
20123-3.63%-3.11%$10,644$10,707-0.08%-6.27%-3.11%
20124-1.82%-1.70%$10,450$10,5250.20%-3.83%-1.70%
20125-9.87%-10.71%$9,419$9,3990.06%-20.21%-10.71%
201263.81%5.08%$9,778$9,876-0.10%8.92%5.08%
20127-0.02%-0.03%$9,776$9,8740.22%-0.25%-0.03%
201280.15%0.41%$9,791$9,9140.01%0.30%0.41%
201295.03%5.22%$10,283$10,4320.02%10.05%5.22%
201210-0.43%-0.44%$10,240$10,386-0.07%-0.78%-0.44%
2012111.30%1.56%$10,373$10,5480.05%2.56%1.56%
2012126.97%6.80%$11,096$11,2650.02%13.80%6.80%
20131-0.34%-0.29%$11,058$11,2320.01%-0.69%-0.29%
20132-2.35%-2.28%$10,799$10,9750.06%-4.77%-2.28%
20133-1.12%-1.02%$10,677$10,8640.03%-2.35%-1.02%
201341.03%1.22%$10,787$10,9960.07%1.99%1.22%
20135-4.77%-4.83%$10,272$10,465-0.13%-9.33%-4.83%
20136-5.42%-5.35%$9,715$9,905-0.10%-11.17%-5.35%
201371.27%1.32%$9,839$10,0360.16%2.39%1.32%
20138-2.81%-2.54%$9,563$9,781-0.10%-5.46%-2.54%
201397.04%7.21%$10,236$10,4860.22%14.09%7.21%
2013104.90%4.17%$10,738$10,9240.07%9.73%4.17%
201311-1.01%-0.26%$10,629$10,8950.09%-2.02%-0.26%
201312-0.91%-0.42%$10,532$10,849-0.18%-1.59%-0.42%
20141-8.20%-8.64%$9,669$9,9120.20%-16.60%-8.64%
201422.57%3.38%$9,917$10,2470.04%5.61%3.38%
201434.06%3.88%$10,319$10,644-0.11%8.80%3.88%
201440.35%0.78%$10,355$10,7270.11%0.59%0.78%
201453.26%2.95%$10,693$11,0440.18%6.33%2.95%
201462.10%2.40%$10,918$11,309-0.08%4.14%2.40%
201471.09%1.36%$11,036$11,463-0.08%2.25%1.36%
201482.94%2.83%$11,360$11,7880.19%5.63%2.83%
20149-7.88%-7.77%$10,465$10,872-0.07%-15.12%-7.77%
2014101.44%1.42%$10,616$11,0260.26%2.63%1.42%
201411-1.57%-1.54%$10,449$10,8560.11%-3.20%-1.54%
201412-4.33%-3.99%$9,997$10,423-0.29%-8.41%-3.99%
20151-0.49%-0.69%$9,948$10,3510.63%-1.60%-0.69%
201524.33%4.41%$10,379$10,807-0.29%9.06%4.41%
20153-1.96%-1.50%$10,176$10,6460.25%-4.03%-1.50%
201547.40%6.85%$10,928$11,3750.03%14.76%6.85%
20155-4.58%-4.10%$10,428$10,9080.04%-8.60%-4.10%
20156-2.89%-2.93%$10,127$10,5890.03%-5.67%-2.93%
20157-6.76%-6.31%$9,442$9,9210.04%-13.57%-6.31%
20158-8.24%-8.84%$8,664$9,044-0.05%-17.73%-8.84%
20159-2.82%-3.13%$8,419$8,7610.30%-7.21%-3.13%
2015106.71%6.38%$8,984$9,319-0.14%13.56%6.38%
201511-3.44%-2.52%$8,675$9,084-0.26%-6.24%-2.52%
201512-3.68%-3.83%$8,355$8,736-0.15%-6.99%-3.83%

Portfolio Returns Based Style Analysis

Portfolio Returns Based Style Analysis
Style CategoryPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
Large-cap Value0.00%0.00%
Large-cap Growth0.00%0.00%
Mid-cap Value0.00%0.00%
Mid-cap Growth0.00%0.00%
Small-cap Value1.46%2.34%
Small-cap Growth0.00%0.00%
Global ex-US Developed Markets0.00%0.00%
Emerging Markets97.83%97.66%
Corporate Bonds0.00%0.00%
Long-Term Treasuries0.00%0.00%
Intermediate-Term Treasuries0.00%0.00%
Short-Term Treasuries0.71%0.00%
R Squared99.01%99.33%
Style analysis is based on monthly returns from Jan 2010 to Dec 2015 and uses total portfolio return with monthly rebalancing. Returns based style analysis aims to explain the portfolio returns based on asset class exposures, it does not identify the actual portfolio holdings.

Holdings Based Exposures for Portfolio 1

Holdings Based Exposures for Portfolio 1
TickerNameCategoryDurationERWeightReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETFShort Government1.880.15%50.00%$267-0.22%
EETProShares Ultra MSCI Emerging MarketsLeveraged Equity0.95%50.00%-$1,912100.22%

Asset Allocation

Fixed Income Credit Quality

Fixed Income Maturity

Holdings Based Exposures for Portfolio 2

Holdings Based Exposures for Portfolio 2
TickerNameCategoryDurationERWeightReturn ContributionRisk Contribution
EEMiShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETFDiversified Emerging Mkts0.67%100.00%-$1,264100.00%

Asset Allocation

Equity Market Capitalization

Equity Sectors

Fixed Income Maturity

Fund fundamentals data as of 09/05/2019. © 2019 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The fund fundamentals information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)-0.10%-0.02%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)-1.16%-0.30%
Geometric Mean (monthly)-0.25%-0.19%
Geometric Mean (annualized)-2.95%-2.23%
Volatility (monthly)5.57%5.73%
Volatility (annualized)19.31%19.84%
Downside Deviation (monthly)3.80%3.99%
Max. Drawdown-30.83%-29.09%
US Market Correlation0.790.80
Beta(*)1.131.18
Alpha (annualized)-15.96%-15.65%
R262.85%64.12%
Sharpe Ratio-0.06-0.02
Sortino Ratio-0.09-0.02
Treynor Ratio (%)-1.06-0.28
Calmar Ratio-0.34-0.31
Active Return-15.81%-15.09%
Tracking Error11.91%12.12%
Information Ratio-1.33-1.24
Skewness0.270.00
Excess Kurtosis0.531.05
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-9.61%-9.30%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-9.35%-9.45%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-11.42%-12.66%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)62.9868.59
Downside Capture Ratio (%)143.96148.02
Safe Withdrawal Rate15.71%16.10%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate0.00%0.00%
Positive Periods32 out of 72 (44.44%)31 out of 72 (43.06%)
Gain/Loss Ratio1.191.31
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1May 2011Dec 20154 years 8 months-30.83%
2May 2010Jun 20102 monthsSep 20103 months5 months-10.79%
3Jan 2010Jan 20101 monthMar 20102 months3 months-6.63%
4Jan 2011Feb 20112 monthsMar 20111 month3 months-4.13%
5Nov 2010Nov 20101 monthDec 20101 month2 months-3.19%

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1May 2011Sep 20115 months-29.09%
2Apr 2010Jun 20103 monthsSep 20103 months6 months-10.81%
3Jan 2010Jan 20101 monthMar 20102 months3 months-7.76%
4Jan 2011Feb 20112 monthsMar 20111 month3 months-3.88%
5Nov 2010Nov 20101 monthDec 20101 month2 months-2.91%

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
TickerNameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF0.85%0.73%2.28%0.21%-0.55%1.112.51-0.28
EETProShares Ultra MSCI Emerging Markets-10.50%39.30%33.95%-41.65%-61.96%-0.09-0.120.80
EEMiShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF-2.23%19.84%19.10%-18.82%-29.09%-0.02-0.020.80

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
TickerNameSHYEETEEMPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF--0.14-0.13-0.12-0.13
EETProShares Ultra MSCI Emerging Markets-0.14-1.001.001.00
EEMiShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF-0.131.00-0.991.00

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF$267
EETProShares Ultra MSCI Emerging Markets-$1,912
EEMiShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF-$1,264

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
TickerNamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.22%
EETProShares Ultra MSCI Emerging Markets100.22%
EEMiShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF100.00%

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
AverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year-1.94%17.59%-18.64%-1.17%19.10%-18.82%
3 years-1.68%3.53%-9.02%-0.78%4.05%-8.13%
5 years-3.18%-0.01%-6.35%-2.38%0.83%-5.60%
Result statistics are based on annualized rolling returns over full calendar year periods