Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation

Portfolio Model Configuration

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Asset Class Allocation

Asset Allocation
US Stock Market
US Large Cap
US Large Cap Value
US Large Cap Growth
US Mid Cap
US Mid Cap Value
US Mid Cap Growth
US Small Cap
US Small Cap Value
US Small Cap Growth
US Micro Cap
Global ex-US Stock Market
Intl Developed ex-US Market
International ex-US Small Cap
International ex-US Value
European Stocks
Pacific Stocks
Emerging Markets
Short Term Treasury
Intermediate Term Treasury
10-year Treasury
Long Term Treasury
Total US Bond Market
Global Bonds (Unhedged)
Global Bonds (USD Hedged)
Short-Term Investment Grade
Corporate Bonds
Long-Term Corporate Bonds
High Yield Corporate Bonds
Short-Term Tax-Exempt
Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt
Long-Term Tax-Exempt
Precious Metals

Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 1986 - Dec 2019)

Portfolio 1

Asset Class Allocation
US Large Cap 6.00%
US Mid Cap 6.00%
US Small Cap 6.00%
Global ex-US Stock Market 16.00%
Long Term Treasury 33.00%
Gold 33.00%
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Portfolio 2

Asset Class Allocation
US Stock Market 34.00%
Long Term Treasury 33.00%
Gold 33.00%
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Portfolio 3

Asset Class Allocation
US Stock Market 60.00%
Long Term Treasury 40.00%
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Performance Summary

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioMarket Correlation
Portfolio 1$10,000$134,819 7.95% 8.21%29.28%-5.26%-20.84% 0.580.920.51
Portfolio 2$10,000$164,514 8.59% 7.81%24.04%-3.69%-18.90% 0.681.100.59
Portfolio 3$10,000$271,561 10.20% 9.75%33.66%-14.12%-27.61% 0.721.080.91

Portfolio Growth


Annual Returns

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
NameTotal ReturnAnnualized ReturnAnnualized Standard Deviation
3 MonthYear To Date1 year3 year5 year10 yearFull3 year5 year
Portfolio 12.05%19.47%19.47%9.10%5.59%6.92%7.95%6.34%7.55%
Portfolio 22.74%21.53%21.53%10.39%6.79%8.35%8.59%6.28%7.26%
Portfolio 34.35%24.94%24.94%11.76%8.49%11.50%10.20%7.92%7.72%
Trailing return and volatility are as of last calendar month ending December 2019
Notes and Disclosures
  • IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by Portfolio Visualizer regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
  • Asset allocation and diversification strategies do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
  • Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, commissions, or actual taxes due on investment returns.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • Refer to the related documentation sections for more details on terms and definitions, methodology, and data sources.
  • Portfolio model information represents a blended portfolio consisting of the model's underlying positions and assigned weights provided by the user and rebalanced at the specified schedule. The results were constructed using net of fee mutual fund performance. Portfolio Visualizer does not provide preferential treatment to any specific security or investment.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • Compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) is the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio. It is calculated from the portfolio start and end balance and is thus impacted by any cashflows.
  • The time-weighted rate of return (TWRR) is a measure of the compound rate of growth in a portfolio. This is calculated from the holding period returns (e.g. monthly returns), and TWRR will thus not be impacted by cashflows. If there are no external cashflows, TWRR will equal CAGR.
  • The money-weighted rate of return (MWRR) is the internal rate of return (IRR) taking into account cashflows. This is the discount rate at which the present value of cash inflows equals the present value of cash outflows.
  • Standard deviation (Stdev) is used to measure the dispersion of returns around the mean and is often used as a measure of risk. A higher standard deviation implies greater the dispersion of data points around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio, and it is calculated by dividing the mean monthly excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the standard deviation of excess return, and the displayed value is annualized.
  • Sortino Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted return which is a modification of the Sharpe Ratio. While the latter is the ratio of average returns in excess of a risk-free rate divided by the standard deviation of those excess returns, the Sortino Ratio has the same denominator divided by the standard deviation of returns below the risk-free rate.
  • Treynor Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is similar to the Sharpe Ratio, but it uses portfolio beta (systematic risk) as the risk metric in the denominator.
  • Calmar Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is calculated as the annualized return over the past 36 months divided by the maximum drawdown over the past 36 months based on monthly returns.
  • Risk-free returns are calculated based on the Federal Reserve 3-Month Treasury Bill (secondary market) rates.
  • Downside deviation measures the downside volatility of the portfolio returns unlike standard deviation, which includes both upside and downside deviations. Downside deviation is calculated based on negative returns that hurt the portfolio performance.
  • Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other. Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much. Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution or returns from a normal Gaussian distribution shape about its mean. Negative skewness is associated with the left (typically negative returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the right tail; and positive skewness is associated with the right (typically positive returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the left tail.
  • Excess kurtosis is a measure of whether a data distribution is peaked or flat relative to a normal distribution. Distributions with high kurtosis tend to have a distinct peak near the mean, decline rather rapidly, and have heavy or fat tails.
  • A drawdown refers to the decline in value of a single investment or an investment portfolio from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown (Max Drawdown) is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. Drawdown values are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Value at Risk (VaR) measures the scale of loss at a given confidence level. For example, if the 95% confidence one-month VaR is 3%, there is 95% confidence that over the next month the portfolio will not lose more than 3%. Value at Risk can be calculated directly based on historical returns based on a given percentile or analytically based on the mean and standard deviation of the returns.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measures the scale of the expected loss once the specific Value at Risk (VaR) breakpoint has been breached, i.e., it calculates the average tail loss by taking a weighted average between the value at risk and losses exceeding the value at risk.
  • Beta is a measure of systematic risk and measures the volatility of a particular investment relative to the market or its benchmark. Alpha measures the active return of the investment compared to the market benchmark return. R-squared is the percentage of a portfolio's movements that can be explained by movements in the selected benchmark index.
  • Active return is the investment return minus the return of its benchmark. For periods longer than 12 months this is displayed as annualized value, i.e., annualized investment return minus annualized benchmark return.
  • Tracking error, also known as active risk, is the standard deviation of active return. This is displayed as annualized value based on the standard deviation of monthly active returns.
  • Information ratio is the active return divided by the tracking error. It measures whether the investment outperformed its benchmark consistently.
  • Gain/Loss ratio is a measure of downside risk, and it is calculated as the average positive return in up periods divided by the average negative return in down periods.
  • Upside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was up, and Downside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was down. An upside capture ratio greater than 100 would indicate that the fund outperformed its benchmark when the market was up, and a downside capture ratio below 100 would indicate that the fund lost less than its benchmark when the market was down. To calculate upside capture ratio a new series from the portfolio returns is constructed by dropping all time periods where the benchmark return is less than equal to zero. The up capture is then the quotient of the annualized return of the resulting manager series, divided by the annualized return of the resulting benchmark series. The downside capture ratio is calculated analogously.
  • All risk measures for the portfolio and portfolio assets are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • The results assume bands based (10.00% corridor) rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation.

Annual Returns

Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3US Large CapUS Mid CapUS Small CapGlobal ex-US Stock MarketLong Term TreasuryGoldUS Stock Market

Risk and Return Metrics

Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)0.67%0.71%0.85%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)8.31%8.91%10.72%
Geometric Mean (monthly)0.64%0.69%0.81%
Geometric Mean (annualized)7.95%8.59%10.20%
Standard Deviation (monthly)2.37%2.26%2.81%
Standard Deviation (annualized)8.21%7.81%9.75%
Downside Deviation (monthly)1.39%1.29%1.75%
Maximum Drawdown-20.84%-18.90%-27.61%
Stock Market Correlation0.510.590.91
Alpha (annualized)4.88%5.15%3.60%
Sharpe Ratio0.580.680.72
Sortino Ratio0.921.101.08
Treynor Ratio (%)17.1017.4711.82
Calmar Ratio1.141.881.26
Active Return-2.51%-1.88%-0.27%
Tracking Error12.87%12.15%7.25%
Information Ratio-0.20-0.15-0.04
Excess Kurtosis2.582.622.19
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)2.97%2.89%4.01%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)3.23%3.00%3.78%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)4.51%4.15%6.03%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)36.1940.1466.91
Downside Capture Ratio (%)16.1519.2053.85
Safe Withdrawal Rate6.69%6.75%8.78%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate5.01%5.56%6.94%
Positive Periods255 out of 408 (62.50%)261 out of 408 (63.97%)278 out of 408 (68.14%)
Gain/Loss Ratio1.251.281.02
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are monthly values.


Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEndPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
Black Monday PeriodSep 1987Nov 1987-6.73%-7.60%-18.41%
Asian CrisisJul 1997Jan 1998-3.63%-2.26%-3.27%
Russian Debt DefaultJul 1998Oct 1998-7.22%-7.30%-9.38%
Dotcom CrashMar 2000Oct 2002-7.36%-7.79%-20.49%
Subprime CrisisNov 2007Mar 2009-20.84%-18.90%-27.61%

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Mar 2008Oct 20088 monthsNov 20091 year 1 month1 year 9 months-20.84%
2Feb 2015Dec 201511 monthsJun 20166 months1 year 5 months-9.61%
3Jan 1990Sep 19909 monthsMay 19918 months1 year 5 months-9.51%
4Aug 2016Dec 20165 monthsAug 20178 months1 year 1 month-9.27%
5Oct 2012Jun 20139 monthsMay 201411 months1 year 8 months-9.27%
6Feb 2018Oct 20189 monthsMay 20197 months1 year 4 months-8.00%
7May 1998Aug 19984 monthsNov 19983 months7 months-7.55%
8Sep 2000Mar 20017 monthsApr 20021 year 1 month1 year 8 months-7.36%
9Sep 1987Oct 19872 monthsMar 19885 months7 months-6.73%
10Apr 2004Apr 20041 monthOct 20046 months7 months-5.83%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Mar 2008Oct 20088 monthsSep 200911 months1 year 7 months-18.90%
2Oct 2012Jun 20139 monthsFeb 20148 months1 year 5 months-8.58%
3Aug 2016Nov 20164 monthsAug 20179 months1 year 1 month-8.31%
4Feb 2015Sep 20158 monthsApr 20167 months1 year 3 months-8.07%
5Sep 2000Mar 20017 monthsMar 20021 year1 year 7 months-7.79%
6Sep 1987Nov 19873 monthsMay 19891 year 6 months1 year 9 months-7.60%
7Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-7.30%
8Jan 1990Oct 199010 monthsFeb 19914 months1 year 2 months-7.12%
9Jun 2002Jul 20022 monthsDec 20025 months7 months-5.91%
10Feb 1994Jun 19945 monthsMar 19959 months1 year 2 months-5.69%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Portfolio 3

Drawdowns for Portfolio 3 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsApr 20101 year 2 months2 years 6 months-27.61%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 monthDec 20031 year 3 months3 years 4 months-20.49%
3Sep 1987Nov 19873 monthsJan 19891 year 2 months1 year 5 months-18.41%
4Jul 1990Sep 19903 monthsJan 19914 months7 months-10.09%
5Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-9.38%
6Sep 2018Dec 20184 monthsMar 20193 months7 months-9.31%
7Feb 1994Jun 19945 monthsFeb 19958 months1 year 1 month-8.43%
8Jan 1990Apr 19904 monthsMay 19901 month5 months-6.32%
9Sep 1986Sep 19861 monthJan 19874 months5 months-6.26%
10Apr 2000May 20002 monthsAug 20003 months5 months-6.14%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
NameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioMarket Correlation
US Large Cap10.68%14.84%37.45%-37.02%-50.97%0.550.790.99
US Mid Cap11.87%16.40%40.44%-41.82%-54.14%0.580.830.96
US Small Cap10.40%18.64%45.63%-36.07%-53.95%0.460.640.90
Global ex-US Stock Market7.03%17.64%63.38%-44.10%-58.50%0.290.430.70
Long Term Treasury8.09%10.16%30.87%-13.03%-16.68%0.500.86-0.08
US Stock Market10.46%14.99%35.79%-37.04%-50.89%0.530.751.00

Portfolio Asset Performance

Performance of portfolio assets
NameTotal ReturnAnnualized Return
3 MonthYear To Date1 year3 year5 year10 year
US Large Cap9.03%31.33%31.33%15.12%11.55%13.40%
US Mid Cap6.83%30.86%30.86%12.22%9.12%12.93%
US Small Cap8.11%27.22%27.22%10.19%8.75%12.66%
Global ex-US Stock Market8.99%21.43%21.43%9.79%5.78%5.05%
Long Term Treasury-4.44%14.13%14.13%6.73%3.91%6.76%
US Stock Market8.97%30.65%30.65%14.43%11.08%13.30%
Trailing returns as of last calendar month ending December 2019

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
NameUS Large CapUS Mid CapUS Small CapGlobal ex-US Stock MarketLong Term TreasuryGoldUS Stock MarketPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
US Large Cap1.000.930.840.69-0.06-0.080.990.490.580.91
US Mid Cap0.931.000.940.68-0.09-0.020.960.530.580.87
US Small Cap0.840.941.000.64-0.14-0.010.900.490.530.80
Global ex-US Stock Market0.690.680.641.00-
Long Term Treasury-0.06-0.09-0.14-
US Stock Market0.990.960.900.70-0.08-

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
NamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
US Large Cap$11,860
US Mid Cap$12,597
US Small Cap$11,395
Global ex-US Stock Market$13,982
Long Term Treasury$40,550$43,580$70,845
US Stock Market$75,105$190,716
Return attribution decomposes portfolio gains into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to returns by each of the assets.

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
NamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
US Large Cap5.44%
US Mid Cap6.48%
US Small Cap6.82%
Global ex-US Stock Market21.84%
Long Term Treasury18.12%19.91%13.53%
US Stock Market39.34%86.47%
Risk attribution decomposes portfolio risk into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to overall volatility by each of the assets.

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
1 year7.71%32.62%-16.99%8.40%25.70%-14.28%10.22%36.67%-23.21%
3 years7.26%19.97%-0.47%8.14%21.29%0.76%9.95%23.82%-5.77%
5 years7.31%15.51%2.03%8.25%13.98%3.39%9.91%20.27%-0.24%
7 years7.49%12.90%2.52%8.40%12.84%4.03%9.85%16.91%2.47%
10 years7.67%12.11%4.82%8.57%12.29%6.36%9.63%15.62%2.23%
15 years7.71%9.18%5.01%8.46%9.80%6.23%9.05%13.20%6.53%

Annualized Rolling Return - 3 Years

Annualized Rolling Return - 5 Years

Portfolio 1 Rebalancing Events

Rebalancing dates for portfolio 1
103/31/1988US Large Cap: 5.14%
US Mid Cap: 5.21%
US Small Cap: 4.68%
Global ex-US Stock Market: 26.23%
Long Term Treasury: 28.46%
Gold: 30.27%
203/31/1991US Large Cap: 8.58%
US Mid Cap: 7.68%
US Small Cap: 7.24%
Global ex-US Stock Market: 13.99%
Long Term Treasury: 39.54%
Gold: 22.96%
310/31/1996US Large Cap: 8.51%
US Mid Cap: 9.07%
US Small Cap: 8.73%
Global ex-US Stock Market: 13.88%
Long Term Treasury: 36.85%
Gold: 22.95%
411/30/1998US Large Cap: 9.12%
US Mid Cap: 7.36%
US Small Cap: 6.52%
Global ex-US Stock Market: 16.01%
Long Term Treasury: 38.18%
Gold: 22.81%
501/31/2008US Large Cap: 3.57%
US Mid Cap: 6.64%
US Small Cap: 5.66%
Global ex-US Stock Market: 14.06%
Long Term Treasury: 25.62%
Gold: 44.46%
607/31/2011US Large Cap: 4.57%
US Mid Cap: 5.16%
US Small Cap: 5.55%
Global ex-US Stock Market: 11.43%
Long Term Treasury: 30.24%
Gold: 43.06%
712/31/2013US Large Cap: 8.56%
US Mid Cap: 8.35%
US Small Cap: 8.67%
Global ex-US Stock Market: 17.25%
Long Term Treasury: 34.21%
Gold: 22.95%

Portfolio 2 Rebalancing Events

Rebalancing dates for portfolio 2
103/31/1991US Stock Market: 40.92%
Long Term Treasury: 36.52%
Gold: 22.56%
212/31/1995US Stock Market: 40.53%
Long Term Treasury: 36.66%
Gold: 22.81%
307/31/1997US Stock Market: 45.33%
Long Term Treasury: 30.46%
Gold: 24.21%
412/31/1999US Stock Market: 45.03%
Long Term Treasury: 30.33%
Gold: 24.64%
510/31/2001US Stock Market: 24.56%
Long Term Treasury: 43.94%
Gold: 31.50%
603/31/2006US Stock Market: 30.83%
Long Term Treasury: 25.77%
Gold: 43.40%
711/30/2008US Stock Market: 21.57%
Long Term Treasury: 37.95%
Gold: 40.48%
804/30/2011US Stock Market: 37.00%
Long Term Treasury: 22.47%
Gold: 40.53%
912/31/2013US Stock Market: 43.46%
Long Term Treasury: 34.04%
Gold: 22.50%

Portfolio 3 Rebalancing Events

Rebalancing dates for portfolio 3
105/31/1997US Stock Market: 70.67%
Long Term Treasury: 29.33%
209/30/2002US Stock Market: 47.63%
Long Term Treasury: 52.37%
303/31/2006US Stock Market: 70.20%
Long Term Treasury: 29.80%
411/30/2008US Stock Market: 45.28%
Long Term Treasury: 54.72%
502/28/2011US Stock Market: 70.28%
Long Term Treasury: 29.72%
609/30/2011US Stock Market: 49.76%
Long Term Treasury: 50.24%
707/31/2013US Stock Market: 71.20%
Long Term Treasury: 28.80%