Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation

This online portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct a portfolio based on the selected asset class allocation to analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics (Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio), standard deviation, annual returns and rolling returns. The results include a visualization of the portfolio growth chart and rolling returns, CAGR, standard deviation, annual returns and inflation adjusted returns. A periodic contribution or withdrawal can be specified together with the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy and you can compare the given portfolio allocation against multiple lazy portfolios. You can also use the portfolio backtesting tool to build a portfolio based on specific mutual funds, ETFs and stocks.

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Asset Allocation
US Stock Market
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US Large Cap
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US Large Cap Value
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US Large Cap Growth
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US Mid Cap
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US Mid Cap Value
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US Mid Cap Growth
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US Small Cap
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US Small Cap Value
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US Small Cap Growth
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US Micro Cap
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Global ex-US Stock Market
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Intl Developed ex-US Market
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International ex-US Small Cap
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International ex-US Value
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European Stocks
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Pacific Stocks
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Emerging Markets
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Cash
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Short Term Treasury
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Intermediate Term Treasury
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10-year Treasury
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Long Term Treasury
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Total US Bond Market
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TIPS
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Global Bonds (Unhedged)
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Global Bonds (USD Hedged)
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Short-Term Investment Grade
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Corporate Bonds
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Long-Term Corporate Bonds
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High Yield Corporate Bonds
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Short-Term Tax-Exempt
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Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt
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Long-Term Tax-Exempt
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REIT
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Gold
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Precious Metals
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Commodities
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Total
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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 1987 - Dec 2017)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Asset Class Allocation
US Stock Market 60.00%
Total US Bond Market 40.00%
Save asset allocation »
Portfolio 2
Asset Class Allocation
US Stock Market 55.00%
Total US Bond Market 35.00%
Gold 10.00%
Save asset allocation »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$10,000$141,659 8.93% 9.20%28.74%-20.20%-30.72% 0.640.930.98
Portfolio 2$10,000$129,892 8.62% 8.54%26.14%-18.11%-27.04% 0.650.950.96
   
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns and data and other errors may exist. See Disclaimer and Terms of Use
  • The entered time period is automatically adjusted based on the available return data for the specified assets
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (1-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdowns are calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The backtested results include annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
  • The results use total return and assume that all dividends and distributions are reinvested. Taxes and transaction fees are not included
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationReturnBalanceUS Stock MarketTotal US Bond MarketGold
Portfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 1Portfolio 2
19874.43%2.18%4.43%$10,218$10,4432.61%1.54%24.53%
19884.42%13.33%10.57%$11,580$11,54717.32%7.35%-15.26%
19894.65%22.33%19.96%$14,166$13,85128.12%13.64%-2.84%
19906.11%-0.19%-0.63%$14,140$13,765-6.08%8.65%-3.11%
19913.06%25.53%22.30%$17,750$16,83332.39%15.25%-8.56%
19922.90%8.32%6.94%$19,227$18,0019.11%7.14%-5.73%
19932.75%10.25%11.00%$21,198$19,98110.62%9.68%17.68%
19942.67%-1.16%-1.24%$20,951$19,733-0.17%-2.66%-2.17%
19952.54%28.74%26.14%$26,973$24,89235.79%18.18%0.98%
19963.32%14.01%12.32%$30,752$27,96020.96%3.58%-4.59%
19971.70%22.37%18.21%$37,632$33,05230.99%9.44%-21.41%
19981.61%17.39%15.72%$44,177$38,24623.26%8.58%-0.83%
19992.68%13.98%12.92%$50,355$43,18623.81%-0.76%0.85%
20003.39%-1.79%-2.37%$49,455$42,161-10.57%11.39%-5.44%
20011.55%-3.21%-3.01%$47,868$40,894-10.97%8.43%0.75%
20022.38%-9.27%-6.08%$43,429$38,407-20.96%8.26%25.57%
20031.88%20.40%20.62%$52,289$46,32831.35%3.97%19.89%
20043.26%9.20%8.83%$57,102$50,41912.52%4.24%4.65%
20053.42%4.55%5.90%$59,698$53,3965.98%2.40%17.76%
20062.54%11.01%12.28%$66,273$59,95315.51%4.27%22.55%
20074.08%6.06%8.49%$70,291$65,0425.49%6.92%30.45%
20080.09%-20.20%-18.11%$56,091$53,263-37.04%5.05%4.92%
20092.72%19.59%20.26%$67,081$64,05628.70%5.93%24.03%
20101.50%12.82%14.58%$75,684$73,39217.09%6.42%29.27%
20112.96%3.60%4.13%$78,408$76,4240.96%7.56%9.57%
20121.74%11.37%11.02%$87,324$84,84216.25%4.05%6.60%
20131.50%19.10%14.72%$104,007$97,32933.35%-2.26%-28.33%
20140.76%9.76%8.63%$114,159$105,73112.43%5.76%-2.19%
20150.73%0.29%-0.80%$114,494$104,8820.29%0.30%-10.67%
20162.07%8.52%8.57%$124,249$113,87312.53%2.50%8.03%
20172.11%14.01%14.07%$141,659$129,89221.05%3.45%12.81%
Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)0.75%0.72%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)9.39%9.02%
Geometric Mean (monthly)0.72%0.69%
Geometric Mean (annualized)8.93%8.62%
Volatility (monthly)2.66%2.47%
Volatility (annualized)9.20%8.54%
Downside Deviation (monthly)1.71%1.57%
Max. Drawdown-30.72%-27.04%
US Market Correlation0.980.96
Beta(*)0.610.55
Alpha (annualized)2.36%2.63%
R296.95%92.97%
Sharpe Ratio0.640.65
Sortino Ratio0.930.95
Treynor Ratio (%)9.7510.11
Calmar Ratio1.401.29
Active Return-1.36%-1.66%
Tracking Error6.12%7.10%
Information Ratio-0.22-0.23
Skewness-0.91-0.96
Excess Kurtosis3.203.67
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-3.86%-3.50%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-3.62%-3.33%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-5.96%-5.47%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)64.7059.27
Downside Capture Ratio (%)56.9350.18
Safe Withdrawal Rate7.65%7.16%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate5.79%5.53%
Positive Periods252 out of 372 (67.74%)250 out of 372 (67.20%)
Gain/Loss Ratio0.991.04
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEndPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
Black Monday PeriodSep 1987Nov 1987-19.17%-16.77%
Asian CrisisJul 1997Jan 1998-2.69%-2.54%
Russian Debt DefaultJul 1998Oct 1998-10.18%-10.15%
Dotcom CrashMar 2000Oct 2002-21.68%-18.78%
Subprime CrisisNov 2007Mar 2009-30.72%-27.04%

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsOct 20101 year 8 months3 years-30.72%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 monthJan 20041 year 4 months3 years 5 months-21.68%
3Sep 1987Nov 19873 monthsJan 19891 year 2 months1 year 5 months-19.17%
4Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-10.18%
5May 2011Sep 20115 monthsJan 20124 months9 months-9.08%
6Jul 1990Oct 19904 monthsJan 19913 months7 months-8.52%
7Feb 1994Jun 19945 monthsFeb 19958 months1 year 1 month-6.47%
8Apr 2000May 20002 monthsAug 20003 months5 months-5.35%
9Jun 2015Sep 20154 monthsApr 20167 months11 months-5.33%
10Jan 1990Jan 19901 monthMay 19904 months5 months-4.96%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsMar 20101 year 1 month2 years 5 months-27.04%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 monthDec 20031 year 3 months3 years 4 months-18.78%
3Sep 1987Nov 19873 monthsApr 19891 year 5 months1 year 8 months-16.77%
4Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-10.15%
5May 2011Sep 20115 monthsJan 20124 months9 months-7.99%
6Aug 1990Oct 19903 monthsJan 19913 months6 months-7.58%
7May 2010Jun 20102 monthsSep 20103 months5 months-6.00%
8Feb 1994Jun 19945 monthsFeb 19958 months1 year 1 month-5.62%
9Jun 2015Sep 20154 monthsMar 20166 months10 months-5.52%
10Apr 2000May 20002 monthsAug 20003 months5 months-5.08%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
NameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
US Stock Market10.28%14.97%35.79%-37.04%-50.89%0.530.741.00
Total US Bond Market5.97%3.83%18.18%-2.66%-5.86%0.741.170.07
Gold3.78%15.30%30.45%-28.33%-48.26%0.120.18-0.05

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
NameUS Stock MarketTotal US Bond MarketGoldPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
US Stock Market-0.07-0.050.980.96
Total US Bond Market0.07-0.130.230.25
Gold-0.050.13--0.020.16

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
NamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
US Stock Market$100,902$86,815
Total US Bond Market$30,757$24,710
Gold$8,367

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
NamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
US Stock Market96.16%93.25%
Total US Bond Market3.84%3.90%
Gold2.85%

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
AverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year9.45%28.74%-20.20%9.04%26.14%-18.11%
3 years9.09%21.56%-4.81%8.69%18.76%-3.83%
5 years9.01%19.17%1.41%8.67%16.96%2.83%
7 years8.71%15.01%2.29%8.49%13.33%3.85%
10 years8.42%14.33%2.42%8.28%12.72%3.37%
15 years7.99%11.00%5.61%7.94%9.84%6.15%
Result statistics are based on annualized rolling returns over full calendar year periods