Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected asset class level allocations in order to analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, drawdowns, and rolling returns. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

You can also use the portfolio backtesting tool to build and compare portfolios based on specific mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks.

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Asset Allocation 
Asset Class
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Asset 2
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Asset 3
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Asset 4
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Asset 5
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Asset 6
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Asset 7
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Asset 8
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Asset 9
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Asset 10
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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 1987 - May 2020)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Asset Class Allocation
US Stock Market 70.00%
Global ex-US Stock Market 25.00%
Total US Bond Market 5.00%
Save asset allocation »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRTWRRMWRRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$10,000$2,347,999 17.75% 8.83%8.07%14.26%32.23%-36.70%-50.57%
(-47.80%)
0.450.630.98
* The number in parentheses shows the calculated value taking into account the periodic contributions.
   
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • The annual results for 2020 are based on monthly returns from January to May
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • TWRR = Annualized time weighted rate of return
  • MWRR = Annualized money weighted rate of return (internal rate of return) taking into account the periodic cashflows
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdown analysis is calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The backtested results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
  • Inflation adjusted annual contribution of $10,000 was applied at the end of each period. This is reflected in the CAGR and maximum drawdown shown above.
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationPortfolio 1 ReturnPortfolio 1 BalancePortfolio 1 AdjustmentUS Stock MarketGlobal ex-US Stock MarketTotal US Bond Market
19874.43%9.53%$21,396$10,4432.61%30.48%1.54%
19884.42%18.91%$36,346$10,90517.32%25.66%7.35%
19894.65%23.58%$56,328$11,41228.12%12.85%13.64%
19906.11%-10.02%$62,794$12,109-6.08%-24.79%8.65%
19913.06%25.81%$91,478$12,48032.39%9.48%15.25%
19922.90%3.03%$107,096$12,8429.11%-14.79%7.14%
19932.75%15.40%$136,786$13,19510.62%29.92%9.68%
19942.67%2.19%$153,328$13,548-0.17%9.76%-2.66%
19952.54%26.95%$208,548$13,89135.79%3.98%18.18%
19963.32%16.02%$256,315$14,35320.96%4.68%3.58%
19971.70%21.97%$327,236$14,59730.99%-0.77%9.44%
19981.61%20.61%$409,528$14,83323.26%15.60%8.58%
19992.68%24.11%$523,499$15,23123.81%29.92%-0.76%
20003.39%-10.74%$483,043$15,747-10.57%-15.61%11.39%
20011.55%-12.29%$439,653$15,991-10.97%-20.15%8.43%
20022.38%-18.03%$376,754$16,371-20.96%-15.08%8.26%
20031.88%32.23%$514,865$16,67931.35%40.34%3.97%
20043.26%14.18%$605,106$17,22212.52%20.84%4.24%
20053.42%8.20%$672,527$17,8105.98%15.57%2.40%
20062.54%17.73%$810,032$18,26315.51%26.64%4.27%
20074.08%8.07%$894,405$19,0085.49%15.52%6.92%
20080.09%-36.70%$585,193$19,025-37.04%-44.10%5.05%
20092.72%29.57%$777,760$19,54328.70%36.73%5.93%
20101.50%15.07%$914,779$19,83517.09%11.12%6.42%
20112.96%-2.59%$911,510$20,4230.96%-14.56%7.56%
20121.74%16.11%$1,079,178$20,77816.25%18.14%4.05%
20131.50%26.99%$1,391,570$21,09033.35%15.04%-2.26%
20140.76%7.93%$1,523,157$21,25012.43%-4.24%5.76%
20150.73%-0.87%$1,531,238$21,4050.29%-4.38%0.30%
20162.07%10.06%$1,707,152$21,84912.53%4.65%2.50%
20172.11%21.76%$2,100,898$22,31021.05%27.40%3.45%
20181.91%-7.30%$1,970,345$22,736-5.26%-14.44%-0.13%
20192.29%27.24%$2,530,369$23,25630.65%21.43%8.61%
2020-0.23%-7.21%$2,347,999$0.00-5.59%-14.29%5.56%
Annual returns for 2020 are based on partial year data
Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)0.79%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)9.95%
Geometric Mean (monthly)0.71%
Geometric Mean (annualized)8.83%
Volatility (monthly)4.12%
Volatility (annualized)14.26%
Downside Deviation (monthly)2.84%
Max. Drawdown-50.57%
US Market Correlation0.98
Beta(*)0.91
Alpha (annualized)-0.30%
R295.79%
Sharpe Ratio0.45
Sortino Ratio0.63
Treynor Ratio (%)7.07
Calmar Ratio0.33
Active Return-1.19%
Tracking Error3.23%
Information Ratio-0.37
Skewness-0.88
Excess Kurtosis2.55
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-7.10%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-5.98%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-9.92%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)88.61
Downside Capture Ratio (%)91.18
Safe Withdrawal Rate7.75%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate5.84%
Positive Periods264 out of 401 (65.84%)
Gain/Loss Ratio0.86
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEndPortfolio 1
Black Monday PeriodSep 1987Nov 1987-23.82%
Asian CrisisJul 1997Jan 1998-4.73%
Russian Debt DefaultJul 1998Oct 1998-15.48%
Dotcom CrashMar 2000Oct 2002-41.71%
Subprime CrisisNov 2007Mar 2009-50.57%

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsDec 20123 years 10 months5 years 2 months-50.57%
2Apr 2000Sep 20022 years 6 monthsNov 20053 years 2 months5 years 8 months-41.71%
3Sep 1987Nov 19873 monthsJan 19891 year 2 months1 year 5 months-23.82%
4Jan 2020Mar 20203 months-20.54%
5Jan 1990Sep 19909 monthsFeb 19915 months1 year 2 months-16.87%
6Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-15.48%
7Oct 2018Dec 20183 monthsApr 20194 months7 months-12.96%
8Jun 2015Feb 20169 monthsJul 20165 months1 year 2 months-10.79%
9May 2019May 20191 monthJun 20191 month2 months-5.86%
10Feb 1994Mar 19942 monthsAug 19945 months7 months-5.42%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
NameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
US Stock Market10.02%15.32%35.79%-37.04%-50.89%0.500.711.00
Global ex-US Stock Market5.11%17.71%40.34%-44.10%-58.50%0.200.280.73
Total US Bond Market5.96%3.81%18.18%-2.66%-5.86%0.741.190.06

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
NameUS Stock MarketGlobal ex-US Stock MarketTotal US Bond MarketPortfolio 1
US Stock Market1.000.730.060.98
Global ex-US Stock Market0.731.000.030.86
Total US Bond Market0.060.031.000.07

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
NamePortfolio 1
US Stock Market$1,495,531
Global ex-US Stock Market$227,411
Total US Bond Market$54,628

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
NamePortfolio 1
US Stock Market73.39%
Global ex-US Stock Market26.52%
Total US Bond Market0.09%

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodAverageHighLow
1 year10.45%32.23%-36.70%
3 years9.25%22.22%-13.74%
5 years8.86%21.88%-0.80%
7 years8.73%17.93%1.09%
10 years8.40%13.98%0.47%
15 years7.67%10.81%4.56%
Result statistics are based on annualized rolling returns over full calendar year periods