Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected asset class level allocations in order to analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, drawdowns, and rolling returns. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

You can also use the portfolio backtesting tool to build and compare portfolios based on specific mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks.

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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2001 - Oct 2022)

Portfolio Allocations

TIPS
Asset Class Allocation
TIPS 100.00%
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Intermediate Term Treasury
Asset Class Allocation
Intermediate Term Treasury 100.00%
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10-year Treasury
Asset Class Allocation
10-year Treasury 100.00%
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Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioMarket Correlation
TIPS$10,000$25,357 4.35% 5.95%16.61%-12.52%-13.61% 0.530.770.15
Intermediate Term Treasury$10,000$21,424 3.55% 4.66%14.15%-11.98%-14.24% 0.490.78-0.24
10-year Treasury$10,000$21,067 3.47% 7.41%20.53%-16.91%-21.22% 0.320.49-0.28
   

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
NameTotal ReturnAnnualized ReturnAnnualized Standard Deviation
3 MonthYear To Date1 year3 year5 year10 yearFull3 year5 year
TIPS-7.99%-12.52%-11.55%1.01%1.93%0.83%4.35%6.69%5.57%
Intermediate Term Treasury-6.84%-11.98%-11.91%-2.60%-0.08%0.55%3.55%4.67%4.31%
10-year Treasury-9.77%-16.91%-16.44%-4.56%-0.78%0.17%3.47%7.09%6.52%
Trailing return and volatility are as of last full calendar month ending October 2022
Notes on results:
  • IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by Portfolio Visualizer regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
  • Asset allocation and diversification strategies do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
  • Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, commissions, or actual taxes due on investment returns.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • Refer to the related documentation sections for more details on terms and definitions, methodology, and data sources.
  • Portfolio model information represents a blended portfolio consisting of the model's underlying positions and assigned weights provided by the user and rebalanced at the specified schedule. The results were constructed using net of fee mutual fund performance. Portfolio Visualizer does not provide preferential treatment to any specific security or investment.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • Compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) is the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio. It is calculated from the portfolio start and end balance and is thus impacted by any cashflows.
  • The time-weighted rate of return (TWRR) is a measure of the compound rate of growth in a portfolio. This is calculated from the holding period returns (e.g. monthly returns), and TWRR will thus not be impacted by cashflows. If there are no external cashflows, TWRR will equal CAGR.
  • The money-weighted rate of return (MWRR) is the internal rate of return (IRR) taking into account cashflows. This is the discount rate at which the present value of cash inflows equals the present value of cash outflows.
  • Standard deviation (Stdev) is used to measure the dispersion of returns around the mean and is often used as a measure of risk. A higher standard deviation implies greater the dispersion of data points around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio, and it is calculated by dividing the mean monthly excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the standard deviation of excess return, and the displayed value is annualized.
  • Sortino Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted return which is a modification of the Sharpe Ratio. While the latter is the ratio of average returns in excess of a risk-free rate divided by the standard deviation of those excess returns, the Sortino Ratio has the same denominator divided by the standard deviation of returns below the risk-free rate.
  • Treynor Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is similar to the Sharpe Ratio, but it uses portfolio beta (systematic risk) as the risk metric in the denominator.
  • Calmar Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is calculated as the annualized return over the past 36 months divided by the maximum drawdown over the past 36 months based on monthly returns.
  • Risk-free returns are calculated based on the Federal Reserve 3-Month Treasury Bill (secondary market) rates.
  • Downside deviation measures the downside volatility of the portfolio returns unlike standard deviation, which includes both upside and downside deviations. Downside deviation is calculated based on negative returns that hurt the portfolio performance.
  • Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other. Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much. Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution or returns from a normal Gaussian distribution shape about its mean. Negative skewness is associated with the left (typically negative returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the right tail; and positive skewness is associated with the right (typically positive returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the left tail.
  • Excess kurtosis is a measure of whether a data distribution is peaked or flat relative to a normal distribution. Distributions with high kurtosis tend to have a distinct peak near the mean, decline rather rapidly, and have heavy or fat tails.
  • A drawdown refers to the decline in value of a single investment or an investment portfolio from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown (Max Drawdown) is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. Drawdown values are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Value at Risk (VaR) measures the scale of loss at a given confidence level. If the 5% VaR is -3% the portfolio return is expected to be greater than -3% 95% of the time and less than -3% 5% of the time. Value at Risk can be calculated directly based on historical returns based on a given percentile or analytically based on the mean and standard deviation of the returns.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measures the scale of the expected loss once the specific Value at Risk (VaR) breakpoint has been breached, i.e., it calculates the average tail loss by taking a weighted average between the value at risk and losses exceeding the value at risk.
  • Beta is a measure of systematic risk and measures the volatility of a particular investment relative to the market or its benchmark. Alpha measures the active return of the investment compared to the market benchmark return. R-squared is the percentage of a portfolio's movements that can be explained by movements in the selected benchmark index.
  • Active return is the investment return minus the return of its benchmark. For periods longer than 12 months this is displayed as annualized value, i.e., annualized investment return minus annualized benchmark return.
  • Tracking error, also known as active risk, is the standard deviation of active return. This is displayed as annualized value based on the standard deviation of monthly active returns.
  • Information ratio is the active return divided by the tracking error. It measures whether the investment outperformed its benchmark consistently.
  • Gain/Loss ratio is a measure of downside risk, and it is calculated as the average positive return in up periods divided by the average negative return in down periods.
  • Upside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was up, and Downside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was down. An upside capture ratio greater than 100 would indicate that the fund outperformed its benchmark when the market was up, and a downside capture ratio below 100 would indicate that the fund lost less than its benchmark when the market was down. To calculate upside capture ratio a new series from the portfolio returns is constructed by dropping all time periods where the benchmark return is less than equal to zero. The up capture is then the quotient of the annualized return of the resulting manager series, divided by the annualized return of the resulting benchmark series. The downside capture ratio is calculated analogously.
  • All risk measures for the portfolio and portfolio assets are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • The annual results for 2022 are based on monthly returns from January to October.
  • The results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation.
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationTIPSIntermediate Term Treasury10-year TreasuryTIPSIntermediate Term Treasury10-year Treasury
ReturnBalanceReturnBalanceReturnBalance
20011.55%7.61%$10,7617.55%$10,7555.40%$10,5407.61%7.55%5.40%
20022.38%16.61%$12,54814.15%$12,27615.45%$12,16916.61%14.15%15.45%
20031.88%8.00%$13,5532.37%$12,5670.15%$12,1878.00%2.37%0.15%
20043.26%8.27%$14,6743.40%$12,9954.50%$12,7358.27%3.40%4.50%
20053.42%2.59%$15,0542.31%$13,2953.01%$13,1192.59%2.31%3.01%
20062.54%0.43%$15,1183.14%$13,7122.19%$13,4070.43%3.14%2.19%
20074.08%11.59%$16,8719.98%$15,08110.42%$14,80411.59%9.98%10.42%
20080.09%-2.85%$16,39113.32%$17,09020.53%$17,844-2.85%13.32%20.53%
20092.72%10.80%$18,161-1.69%$16,800-10.17%$16,02910.80%-1.69%-10.17%
20101.50%6.17%$19,2817.35%$18,0357.92%$17,2986.17%7.35%7.92%
20112.96%13.23%$21,8339.79%$19,80016.24%$20,10813.23%9.79%16.24%
20121.74%6.77%$23,3122.67%$20,3302.73%$20,6586.77%2.67%2.73%
20131.50%-8.92%$21,233-3.09%$19,702-8.57%$18,888-8.92%-3.09%-8.57%
20140.76%3.83%$22,0464.32%$20,55310.63%$20,8963.83%4.32%10.63%
20150.73%-1.83%$21,6431.50%$20,8621.12%$21,131-1.83%1.50%1.12%
20162.07%4.52%$22,6221.19%$21,1091.00%$21,3434.52%1.19%1.00%
20172.11%2.81%$23,2581.58%$21,4432.39%$21,8542.81%1.58%2.39%
20181.91%-1.49%$22,9121.00%$21,6580.99%$22,070-1.49%1.00%0.99%
20192.29%8.06%$24,7586.29%$23,0198.03%$23,8428.06%6.29%8.03%
20201.36%10.90%$27,4578.21%$24,90910.01%$26,22810.90%8.21%10.01%
20217.04%5.56%$28,984-2.29%$24,339-3.33%$25,3555.56%-2.29%-3.33%
20226.89%-12.52%$25,357-11.98%$21,424-16.91%$21,067-12.52%-11.98%-16.91%
Annual return for 2022 is from 01/01/2022 to 10/31/2022
Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricTIPSIntermediate Term Treasury10-year Treasury
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)0.37%0.30%0.31%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)4.54%3.66%3.75%
Geometric Mean (monthly)0.36%0.29%0.28%
Geometric Mean (annualized)4.35%3.55%3.47%
Standard Deviation (monthly)1.72%1.35%2.14%
Standard Deviation (annualized)5.95%4.66%7.41%
Downside Deviation (monthly)1.14%0.79%1.34%
Maximum Drawdown-13.61%-14.24%-21.22%
Stock Market Correlation0.15-0.24-0.28
Beta(*)0.06-0.07-0.13
Alpha (annualized)3.98%4.18%4.80%
R22.19%5.57%8.08%
Sharpe Ratio0.530.490.32
Sortino Ratio0.770.780.49
Treynor Ratio (%)56.18-32.84-17.79
Calmar Ratio0.07-0.18-0.21
Active Return-2.96%-3.77%-3.85%
Tracking Error16.04%17.50%19.27%
Information Ratio-0.18-0.22-0.20
Skewness-0.830.040.09
Excess Kurtosis4.331.001.56
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-2.22%-1.84%-3.40%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-2.46%-1.91%-3.21%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-3.90%-2.71%-4.45%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)10.531.28-3.47
Downside Capture Ratio (%)-8.19-19.40-27.44
Safe Withdrawal Rate7.05%6.54%6.53%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate1.85%1.06%0.98%
Positive Periods171 out of 262 (65.27%)155 out of 262 (59.16%)146 out of 262 (55.73%)
Gain/Loss Ratio0.921.241.16
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEndTIPSIntermediate Term Treasury10-year Treasury
Subprime CrisisNov 2007Mar 2009-12.50%-3.43%-6.16%
COVID-19 StartJan 2020Mar 2020-1.31%0.00%0.00%

Drawdowns for TIPS

Drawdowns for TIPS (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 2022Sep 20229 months-13.61%
2Apr 2008Oct 20087 monthsSep 200911 months1 year 6 months-12.50%
3Dec 2012Dec 20131 year 1 monthMar 20195 years 3 months6 years 4 months-9.43%
4Jun 2003Jul 20032 monthsDec 20035 months7 months-5.32%
5Apr 2004Apr 20041 monthAug 20044 months5 months-4.69%
6Nov 2001Dec 20012 monthsApr 20024 months6 months-3.37%
7Nov 2010Dec 20102 monthsApr 20114 months6 months-3.22%
8Oct 2002Oct 20021 monthDec 20022 months3 months-2.75%
9Feb 2006Apr 20063 monthsAug 20064 months7 months-2.38%
10Dec 2006Dec 20061 monthMar 20073 months4 months-2.32%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Intermediate Term Treasury

Drawdowns for Intermediate Term Treasury (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Aug 2020Oct 20222 years 3 months-14.24%
2Aug 2016Apr 20181 year 9 monthsMar 201911 months2 years 8 months-4.48%
3May 2013Aug 20134 monthsNov 20141 year 3 months1 year 7 months-4.30%
4Jun 2003Jul 20032 monthsFeb 20047 months9 months-4.29%
5Nov 2001Mar 20025 monthsJun 20023 months8 months-4.03%
6Apr 2004May 20042 monthsOct 20045 months7 months-3.74%
7Nov 2010Mar 20115 monthsJul 20114 months9 months-3.51%
8Apr 2008May 20082 monthsNov 20086 months8 months-3.43%
9Apr 2009Jun 20093 monthsNov 20095 months8 months-3.20%
10Dec 2009Dec 20091 monthMay 20105 months6 months-3.14%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for 10-year Treasury

Drawdowns for 10-year Treasury (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Aug 2020Oct 20222 years 3 months-21.22%
2Aug 2012Dec 20131 year 5 monthsJan 20151 year 1 month2 years 6 months-10.21%
3Jan 2009Dec 20091 yearAug 20108 months1 year 8 months-10.17%
4Jun 2003Jul 20032 monthsOct 20041 year 3 months1 year 5 months-8.35%
5Aug 2016Apr 20181 year 9 monthsMay 20191 year 1 month2 years 10 months-7.32%
6Sep 2010Jan 20115 monthsAug 20117 months1 year-6.82%
7Nov 2001Mar 20025 monthsJul 20024 months9 months-6.60%
8Sep 2005Apr 20068 monthsSep 20065 months1 year 1 month-5.26%
9Feb 2015Jun 20155 monthsFeb 20168 months1 year 1 month-5.11%
10Apr 2008May 20082 monthsNov 20086 months8 months-4.36%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
NameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioMarket Correlation
TIPS4.35%5.95%16.61%-12.52%-13.61%0.530.770.15
Intermediate Term Treasury3.55%4.66%14.15%-11.98%-14.24%0.490.78-0.24
10-year Treasury3.47%7.41%20.53%-16.91%-21.22%0.320.49-0.28

Portfolio Asset Performance

Performance of portfolio assets
NameTotal ReturnAnnualized Return
3 MonthYear To Date1 year3 year5 year10 year
TIPS-7.99%-12.52%-11.55%1.01%1.93%0.83%
Intermediate Term Treasury-6.84%-11.98%-11.91%-2.60%-0.08%0.55%
10-year Treasury-9.77%-16.91%-16.44%-4.56%-0.78%0.17%
Trailing returns as of last calendar month ending October 2022

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
NameTIPSIntermediate Term Treasury10-year TreasuryTIPSIntermediate Term Treasury10-year Treasury
TIPS1.000.730.691.000.730.69
Intermediate Term Treasury0.731.000.970.731.000.97
10-year Treasury0.690.971.000.690.971.00

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
NameTIPSIntermediate Term Treasury10-year Treasury
TIPS$15,357
Intermediate Term Treasury$11,424
10-year Treasury$11,067
Return attribution decomposes portfolio gains into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to returns by each of the assets.

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
NameTIPSIntermediate Term Treasury10-year Treasury
TIPS100.00%
Intermediate Term Treasury100.00%
10-year Treasury100.00%
Risk attribution decomposes portfolio risk into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to overall volatility by each of the assets.

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodTIPSIntermediate Term Treasury10-year Treasury
AverageHighLowAverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year4.81%19.26%-11.68%3.96%16.07%-11.91%4.20%20.53%-16.44%
3 years4.58%11.84%-2.45%4.05%9.23%-2.60%4.34%10.80%-4.56%
5 years4.24%8.53%-0.33%3.96%7.86%-0.08%4.26%9.11%-0.78%
7 years4.20%8.03%0.59%4.09%6.95%0.27%4.42%7.81%-0.13%
10 years4.25%7.50%0.78%4.08%6.33%0.55%4.42%6.83%0.17%
15 years4.19%5.29%3.00%4.07%5.21%2.62%4.40%5.62%2.67%