This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected asset class level allocations in order to analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, drawdowns, and rolling returns. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.
You can also use the portfolio backtesting tool to build and compare portfolios based on specific mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks.
Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 1978 - Dec 2021)
Note: The time period was constrained by the available data for Long Term Treasury [Jan 1978 - Sep 2022].
Trailing return and volatility are as of last full calendar month ending December 2021
Notes on results:
IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by Portfolio Visualizer regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time.
The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities. All use is subject to terms of service.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Asset allocation and diversification strategies do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, commissions, or actual taxes due on investment returns.
The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
Portfolio model information represents a blended portfolio consisting of the model's underlying positions and assigned weights provided by the user and rebalanced at the specified schedule. The results were constructed using net of fee mutual fund performance. Portfolio Visualizer does not provide preferential treatment to any specific security or investment.
The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
Compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) is the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio. It is calculated from the portfolio start and end balance and is thus impacted by any cashflows.
The time-weighted rate of return (TWRR) is a measure of the compound rate of growth in a portfolio. This is calculated from the holding period returns (e.g. monthly returns), and TWRR will thus not be impacted by cashflows. If there are no external cashflows, TWRR will equal CAGR.
The money-weighted rate of return (MWRR) is the internal rate of return (IRR) taking into account cashflows. This is the discount rate at which the present value of cash inflows equals the present value of cash outflows.
Standard deviation (Stdev) is used to measure the dispersion of returns around the mean and is often used as a measure of risk. A higher standard deviation implies greater the dispersion of data points around the mean.
Sharpe Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio, and it is calculated by dividing the mean monthly excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the standard deviation of excess return, and the displayed value is annualized.
Sortino Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted return which is a modification of the Sharpe Ratio. While the latter is the ratio of average returns in excess of a risk-free rate divided by the standard deviation of those excess returns, the Sortino Ratio has the same denominator divided by the standard deviation of returns below the risk-free rate.
Treynor Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is similar to the Sharpe Ratio, but it uses portfolio beta (systematic risk) as the risk metric in the denominator.
Calmar Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is calculated as the annualized return over the past 36 months divided by the maximum drawdown over the past 36 months based on monthly returns.
Risk-free returns are calculated based on the Federal Reserve 3-Month Treasury Bill (secondary market) rates.
Downside deviation measures the downside volatility of the portfolio returns unlike standard deviation, which includes both upside and downside deviations. Downside deviation is calculated based on negative returns that hurt the portfolio performance.
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other. Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much. Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution or returns from a normal Gaussian distribution shape about its mean. Negative skewness is associated with the left (typically negative returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the right tail; and positive skewness is associated with the right (typically positive returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the left tail.
Excess kurtosis is a measure of whether a data distribution is peaked or flat relative to a normal distribution. Distributions with high kurtosis tend to have a distinct peak near the mean, decline rather rapidly, and have heavy or fat tails.
A drawdown refers to the decline in value of a single investment or an investment portfolio from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown (Max Drawdown) is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. Drawdown values are calculated based on monthly returns.
Value at Risk (VaR) measures the scale of loss at a given confidence level. If the 5% VaR is -3% the portfolio return is expected to be greater than -3% 95% of the time and less than -3% 5% of the time. Value at Risk can be calculated directly based on historical returns based on a given percentile or analytically based on the mean and standard deviation of the returns.
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measures the scale of the expected loss once the specific Value at Risk (VaR) breakpoint has been breached, i.e., it calculates the average tail loss by taking a weighted average between the value at risk and losses exceeding the value at risk.
Beta is a measure of systematic risk and measures the volatility of a particular investment relative to the market or its benchmark. Alpha measures the active return of the investment compared to the market benchmark return. R-squared is the percentage of a portfolio's movements that can be explained by movements in the selected benchmark index.
Active return is the investment return minus the return of its benchmark. For periods longer than 12 months this is displayed as annualized value, i.e., annualized investment return minus annualized benchmark return.
Tracking error, also known as active risk, is the standard deviation of active return. This is displayed as annualized value based on the standard deviation of monthly active returns.
Information ratio is the active return divided by the tracking error. It measures whether the investment outperformed its benchmark consistently.
Gain/Loss ratio is a measure of downside risk, and it is calculated as the average positive return in up periods divided by the average negative return in down periods.
Upside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was up, and Downside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was down. An upside capture ratio greater than 100 would indicate that the fund outperformed its benchmark when the market was up, and a downside capture ratio below 100 would indicate that the fund lost less than its benchmark when the market was down. To calculate upside capture ratio a new series from the portfolio returns is constructed by dropping all time periods where the benchmark return is less than equal to zero. The up capture is then the quotient of the annualized return of the resulting manager series, divided by the annualized return of the resulting benchmark series. The downside capture ratio is calculated analogously.
All risk measures for the portfolio and portfolio assets are calculated based on monthly returns.
The results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation.
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
Year
Inflation
WBP Short
WBP Long
US Large Cap
Short Term Treasury
Long Term Treasury
Return
Balance
Return
Balance
1978
9.02%
5.62%
$10,562
5.13%
$10,513
5.87%
3.35%
-1.55%
1979
13.29%
17.05%
$12,363
16.03%
$12,198
18.05%
8.08%
-2.10%
1980
12.52%
29.60%
$16,023
28.23%
$15,641
31.92%
8.81%
-4.99%
1981
8.92%
-3.26%
$15,501
-4.62%
$14,919
-5.21%
14.26%
0.65%
1982
3.83%
21.09%
$18,769
23.58%
$18,437
20.97%
22.12%
47.10%
1983
3.79%
19.96%
$22,516
19.03%
$21,947
21.29%
8.00%
-1.29%
1984
3.95%
6.99%
$24,090
7.21%
$23,530
6.21%
14.01%
16.24%
1985
3.80%
29.49%
$31,194
31.80%
$31,012
31.23%
13.83%
36.90%
1986
1.10%
17.29%
$36,588
19.34%
$37,010
18.06%
10.35%
30.87%
1987
4.43%
4.71%
$38,312
3.94%
$38,469
4.71%
4.78%
-2.92%
1988
4.42%
15.17%
$44,123
15.51%
$44,437
16.22%
5.67%
9.15%
1989
4.65%
29.38%
$57,084
30.02%
$57,778
31.36%
11.48%
17.93%
1990
6.11%
-2.00%
$55,942
-2.41%
$56,383
-3.32%
9.92%
5.78%
1991
3.06%
28.35%
$71,801
28.94%
$72,702
30.22%
11.49%
17.43%
1992
2.90%
7.36%
$77,083
7.42%
$78,097
7.42%
6.75%
7.41%
1993
2.75%
9.53%
$84,432
10.58%
$86,361
9.89%
6.31%
16.78%
1994
2.67%
1.01%
$85,285
0.35%
$86,668
1.18%
-0.48%
-7.04%
1995
2.54%
34.91%
$115,060
36.71%
$118,484
37.45%
12.11%
30.09%
1996
3.32%
21.03%
$139,256
20.46%
$142,730
22.88%
4.39%
-1.26%
1997
1.70%
30.52%
$181,759
31.26%
$187,350
33.19%
6.51%
13.90%
1998
1.61%
26.49%
$229,910
27.06%
$238,048
28.62%
7.36%
13.05%
1999
2.68%
19.15%
$273,930
18.10%
$281,124
21.07%
1.85%
-8.66%
2000
3.39%
-7.27%
$254,023
-6.18%
$263,755
-9.06%
8.83%
19.72%
2001
1.55%
-10.04%
$228,516
-10.39%
$236,351
-12.02%
7.80%
4.31%
2002
2.38%
-19.13%
$184,804
-18.26%
$193,186
-22.15%
8.02%
16.67%
2003
1.88%
25.89%
$232,650
25.92%
$243,258
28.50%
2.38%
2.68%
2004
3.26%
9.77%
$255,379
10.38%
$268,504
10.74%
1.03%
7.12%
2005
3.42%
4.47%
$266,804
4.96%
$281,816
4.77%
1.77%
6.61%
2006
2.54%
14.45%
$305,368
14.25%
$321,979
15.64%
3.77%
1.74%
2007
4.08%
5.64%
$322,581
5.77%
$340,564
5.39%
7.89%
9.24%
2008
0.09%
-32.65%
$217,256
-31.07%
$234,760
-37.02%
6.68%
22.51%
2009
2.72%
23.98%
$269,356
22.63%
$287,889
26.49%
1.44%
-12.06%
2010
1.50%
13.69%
$306,219
14.32%
$329,101
14.91%
2.63%
8.93%
2011
2.96%
1.99%
$312,328
4.70%
$344,559
1.97%
2.26%
29.28%
2012
1.74%
14.31%
$357,028
14.59%
$394,826
15.82%
0.69%
3.46%
2013
1.50%
28.95%
$460,381
27.66%
$504,016
32.18%
-0.10%
-13.03%
2014
0.76%
12.23%
$516,682
14.69%
$578,032
13.51%
0.71%
25.27%
2015
0.73%
1.17%
$522,735
0.97%
$583,652
1.25%
0.45%
-1.54%
2016
2.07%
10.74%
$578,850
10.76%
$646,431
11.82%
1.00%
1.21%
2017
2.11%
19.54%
$691,961
20.36%
$778,044
21.67%
0.40%
8.59%
2018
1.91%
-3.94%
$664,699
-4.27%
$744,856
-4.53%
1.35%
-1.90%
2019
2.29%
28.55%
$854,494
29.61%
$965,385
31.33%
3.59%
14.13%
2020
1.36%
16.82%
$998,209
18.25%
$1,141,586
18.25%
3.96%
18.29%
2021
7.04%
25.60%
$1,253,797
25.22%
$1,429,476
28.55%
-0.87%
-4.73%
Portfolio return and risk metrics
Metric
WBP Short
WBP Long
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)
1.00%
1.02%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)
12.63%
12.97%
Geometric Mean (monthly)
0.92%
0.94%
Geometric Mean (annualized)
11.61%
11.94%
Standard Deviation (monthly)
3.90%
3.92%
Standard Deviation (annualized)
13.52%
13.56%
Downside Deviation (monthly)
2.48%
2.47%
Maximum Drawdown
-46.02%
-45.27%
Stock Market Correlation
0.99
0.98
Beta(*)
0.87
0.87
Alpha (annualized)
0.93%
1.24%
R2
97.79%
96.95%
Sharpe Ratio
0.56
0.59
Sortino Ratio
0.83
0.87
Treynor Ratio (%)
8.80
9.16
Calmar Ratio
1.35
1.50
Active Return
-0.50%
-0.17%
Tracking Error
2.84%
3.11%
Information Ratio
-0.18
-0.05
Skewness
-0.62
-0.60
Excess Kurtosis
2.11
2.12
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)
-5.89%
-5.52%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)
-5.42%
-5.42%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)
-8.46%
-8.43%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)
87.80
88.54
Downside Capture Ratio (%)
85.06
84.34
Safe Withdrawal Rate
7.75%
7.79%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
7.29%
7.57%
Positive Periods
346 out of 528 (65.53%)
349 out of 528 (66.10%)
Gain/Loss Ratio
1.02
1.01
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.
Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress Period
Start
End
WBP Short
WBP Long
Black Monday Period
Sep 1987
Nov 1987
-27.35%
-27.54%
Asian Crisis
Jul 1997
Jan 1998
-5.15%
-5.35%
Russian Debt Default
Jul 1998
Oct 1998
-13.83%
-13.59%
Dotcom Crash
Mar 2000
Oct 2002
-39.67%
-38.91%
Subprime Crisis
Nov 2007
Mar 2009
-46.02%
-45.27%
COVID-19 Start
Jan 2020
Mar 2020
-17.42%
-16.16%
Drawdowns for WBP Short
Drawdowns for WBP Short (worst 10)
Rank
Start
End
Length
Recovery By
Recovery Time
Underwater Period
Drawdown
1
Nov 2007
Feb 2009
1 year 4 months
Feb 2012
3 years
4 years 4 months
-46.02%
2
Sep 2000
Sep 2002
2 years 1 month
Sep 2006
4 years
6 years 1 month
-39.67%
3
Sep 1987
Nov 1987
3 months
May 1989
1 year 6 months
1 year 9 months
-27.35%
4
Feb 2020
Mar 2020
2 months
Jul 2020
4 months
6 months
-17.42%
5
Jul 1998
Aug 1998
2 months
Nov 1998
3 months
5 months
-13.83%
6
Dec 1980
Jul 1982
1 year 8 months
Oct 1982
3 months
1 year 11 months
-13.08%
7
Jun 1990
Oct 1990
5 months
Feb 1991
4 months
9 months
-12.77%
8
Oct 2018
Dec 2018
3 months
Apr 2019
4 months
7 months
-12.19%
9
Feb 1980
Mar 1980
2 months
May 1980
2 months
4 months
-8.82%
10
Sep 1978
Oct 1978
2 months
Mar 1979
5 months
7 months
-8.58%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above
Drawdowns for WBP Long
Drawdowns for WBP Long (worst 10)
Rank
Start
End
Length
Recovery By
Recovery Time
Underwater Period
Drawdown
1
Nov 2007
Feb 2009
1 year 4 months
Apr 2011
2 years 2 months
3 years 6 months
-45.27%
2
Sep 2000
Sep 2002
2 years 1 month
Aug 2006
3 years 11 months
6 years
-38.91%
3
Sep 1987
Nov 1987
3 months
Apr 1989
1 year 5 months
1 year 8 months
-27.54%
4
Feb 2020
Mar 2020
2 months
Jul 2020
4 months
6 months
-16.16%
5
Dec 1980
Jul 1982
1 year 8 months
Oct 1982
3 months
1 year 11 months
-14.25%
6
Jul 1998
Aug 1998
2 months
Nov 1998
3 months
5 months
-13.59%
7
Jun 1990
Oct 1990
5 months
Feb 1991
4 months
9 months
-13.14%
8
May 2011
Sep 2011
5 months
Jan 2012
4 months
9 months
-12.34%
9
Oct 2018
Dec 2018
3 months
Apr 2019
4 months
7 months
-12.01%
10
Feb 1980
Mar 1980
2 months
May 1980
2 months
4 months
-9.31%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above
Portfolio Assets
Performance statistics for portfolio components
Name
CAGR
Stdev
Best Year
Worst Year
Max Drawdown
Sharpe Ratio
Sortino Ratio
Market Correlation
US Large Cap
12.11%
15.02%
37.45%
-37.02%
-50.97%
0.55
0.82
0.99
Short Term Treasury
5.72%
3.08%
22.12%
-0.87%
-4.26%
0.46
0.75
0.04
Long Term Treasury
8.33%
11.12%
47.10%
-13.03%
-23.12%
0.39
0.63
0.02
Portfolio Asset Performance
Performance of portfolio assets
Name
Total Return
Annualized Return
3 Month
Year To Date
1 year
3 year
5 year
10 year
US Large Cap
10.99%
28.55%
28.55%
25.91%
18.32%
16.39%
Short Term Treasury
-0.59%
-0.87%
-0.87%
2.20%
1.67%
1.11%
Long Term Treasury
2.72%
-4.73%
-4.73%
8.75%
6.50%
4.41%
Trailing returns as of last calendar month ending December 2021
Monthly Correlations
Correlations for the portfolio assets
Name
US Large Cap
Short Term Treasury
Long Term Treasury
WBP Short
WBP Long
US Large Cap
1.00
0.05
0.03
1.00
1.00
Short Term Treasury
0.05
1.00
0.70
0.07
0.11
Long Term Treasury
0.03
0.70
1.00
0.05
0.12
Portfolio Return Decomposition
Portfolio return decomposition
Name
WBP Short
WBP Long
US Large Cap
$1,212,646
$1,337,665
Short Term Treasury
$31,151
Long Term Treasury
$81,811
Return attribution decomposes portfolio gains into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to returns by each of the assets.
Portfolio Risk Decomposition
Portfolio risk decomposition
Name
WBP Short
WBP Long
US Large Cap
99.84%
99.05%
Short Term Treasury
0.16%
Long Term Treasury
0.95%
Risk attribution decomposes portfolio risk into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to overall volatility by each of the assets.