Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected asset class level allocations in order to analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, drawdowns, and rolling returns. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

You can also use the portfolio backtesting tool to build and compare portfolios based on specific mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks.

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Asset Allocation 
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Asset 6
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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 1978 - Dec 2020)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Asset Class Allocation
US Stock Market 100.00%
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Portfolio 2
Asset Class Allocation
US Stock Market 90.00%
Long Term Treasury 10.00%
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Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$100,000$12,151,560 11.81% 15.47%35.79%-37.04%-50.89% 0.520.751.00
Portfolio 2$100,000$11,660,772 11.70% 13.95%35.22%-31.08%-45.20% 0.550.801.00
   

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
NameAnnualized ReturnAnnualized Volatility
3 Month1 year3 year5 year10 yearFull3 year5 year
Portfolio 114.65%20.87%14.37%15.30%13.66%11.81%19.67%16.01%
Portfolio 212.69%20.61%13.94%14.57%13.19%11.70%17.06%13.88%
Trailing annualized return and volatility are for full months ending in December 2020 excluding portfolio cashflows.
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdown analysis is calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationPortfolio 1Portfolio 2US Stock MarketLong Term Treasury
ReturnBalanceReturnBalance
19789.02%8.45%$108,4547.45%$107,4548.45%-1.55%
197913.29%24.25%$134,75221.61%$130,67824.25%-2.10%
198012.52%33.15%$179,42729.34%$169,01833.15%-4.99%
19818.92%-4.15%$171,981-3.67%$162,815-4.15%0.65%
19823.83%20.50%$207,23023.16%$200,51820.50%47.10%
19833.79%22.66%$254,19020.26%$241,15322.66%-1.29%
19843.95%2.19%$259,7453.59%$249,8122.19%16.24%
19853.80%31.27%$340,97331.83%$329,33931.27%36.90%
19861.10%14.57%$390,66516.20%$382,70214.57%30.87%
19874.43%2.61%$400,8772.06%$390,5862.61%-2.92%
19884.42%17.32%$470,29516.50%$455,03317.32%9.15%
19894.65%28.12%$602,54227.10%$578,35328.12%17.93%
19906.11%-6.08%$565,920-4.89%$550,060-6.08%5.78%
19913.06%32.39%$749,23230.90%$720,00532.39%17.43%
19922.90%9.11%$817,4668.94%$784,3529.11%7.41%
19932.75%10.62%$904,31711.24%$872,51610.62%16.78%
19942.67%-0.17%$902,792-0.86%$865,051-0.17%-7.04%
19952.54%35.79%$1,225,85935.22%$1,169,68935.79%30.09%
19963.32%20.96%$1,482,82518.74%$1,388,89220.96%-1.26%
19971.70%30.99%$1,942,41729.29%$1,795,63230.99%13.90%
19981.61%23.26%$2,394,30622.24%$2,195,03623.26%13.05%
19992.68%23.81%$2,964,46120.57%$2,646,46023.81%-8.66%
20003.39%-10.57%$2,650,983-7.54%$2,446,789-10.57%19.72%
20011.55%-10.97%$2,360,280-9.44%$2,215,848-10.97%4.31%
20022.38%-20.96%$1,865,547-17.20%$1,834,784-20.96%16.67%
20031.88%31.35%$2,450,47028.49%$2,357,44431.35%2.68%
20043.26%12.52%$2,757,16511.98%$2,639,77612.52%7.12%
20053.42%5.98%$2,922,0556.04%$2,799,2945.98%6.61%
20062.54%15.51%$3,375,30114.13%$3,194,95215.51%1.74%
20074.08%5.49%$3,560,5915.86%$3,382,3265.49%9.24%
20080.09%-37.04%$2,241,829-31.08%$2,331,008-37.04%22.51%
20092.72%28.70%$2,885,18724.62%$2,904,95928.70%-12.06%
20101.50%17.09%$3,378,37516.28%$3,377,80917.09%8.93%
20112.96%0.96%$3,410,8723.79%$3,505,9450.96%29.28%
20121.74%16.25%$3,965,24614.97%$4,030,92616.25%3.46%
20131.50%33.35%$5,287,64528.71%$5,188,28933.35%-13.03%
20140.76%12.43%$5,944,86113.71%$5,899,80012.43%25.27%
20150.73%0.29%$5,962,1990.11%$5,906,2180.29%-1.54%
20162.07%12.53%$6,709,46011.40%$6,579,58212.53%1.21%
20172.11%21.05%$8,121,90519.81%$7,882,69921.05%8.59%
20181.91%-5.26%$7,695,004-4.92%$7,494,789-5.26%-1.90%
20192.29%30.65%$10,053,42529.00%$9,668,01130.65%14.13%
20201.36%20.87%$12,151,56020.61%$11,660,77220.87%18.29%
Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)1.04%1.01%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)13.16%12.80%
Geometric Mean (monthly)0.93%0.93%
Geometric Mean (annualized)11.81%11.70%
Volatility (monthly)4.47%4.03%
Volatility (annualized)15.47%13.95%
Downside Deviation (monthly)2.92%2.59%
Max. Drawdown-50.89%-45.20%
US Market Correlation1.001.00
Beta(*)1.000.90
Alpha (annualized)-0.00%0.93%
R2100.00%99.28%
Sharpe Ratio0.520.55
Sortino Ratio0.750.80
Treynor Ratio (%)8.038.57
Calmar Ratio0.690.81
Active Return0.00%-0.11%
Tracking Error0.00%1.97%
Information RatioN/A-0.05
Skewness-0.72-0.70
Excess Kurtosis2.232.23
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-7.03%-5.94%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-6.31%-5.62%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-10.07%-8.93%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)100.0091.32
Downside Capture Ratio (%)100.0088.30
Safe Withdrawal Rate8.38%8.08%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate7.53%7.44%
Positive Periods333 out of 516 (64.53%)339 out of 516 (65.70%)
Gain/Loss Ratio1.001.00
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEndPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
Black Monday PeriodSep 1987Nov 1987-29.34%-27.08%
Asian CrisisJul 1997Jan 1998-3.72%-3.62%
Russian Debt DefaultJul 1998Oct 1998-17.57%-15.55%
Dotcom CrashMar 2000Oct 2002-44.11%-38.24%
Subprime CrisisNov 2007Mar 2009-50.89%-45.20%

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsMar 20123 years 1 month4 years 5 months-50.89%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 monthApr 20063 years 7 months5 years 8 months-44.11%
3Sep 1987Nov 19873 monthsMay 19891 year 6 months1 year 9 months-29.34%
4Jan 2020Mar 20203 monthsJul 20204 months7 months-20.89%
5Dec 1980Jul 19821 year 8 monthsOct 19823 months1 year 11 months-17.85%
6Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-17.57%
7Jun 1990Oct 19905 monthsFeb 19914 months9 months-16.20%
8Oct 2018Dec 20183 monthsApr 20194 months7 months-14.28%
9Mar 1980Mar 19801 monthJun 19803 months4 months-11.98%
10Sep 1978Oct 19782 monthsMar 19795 months7 months-11.64%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsFeb 20112 years3 years 4 months-45.20%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 monthNov 20053 years 2 months5 years 3 months-38.24%
3Sep 1987Nov 19873 monthsApr 19891 year 5 months1 year 8 months-27.08%
4Feb 2020Mar 20202 monthsJul 20204 months6 months-17.26%
5Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-15.55%
6Dec 1980Jul 19821 year 8 monthsOct 19823 months1 year 11 months-15.02%
7Jun 1990Oct 19905 monthsFeb 19914 months9 months-14.47%
8May 2011Sep 20115 monthsFeb 20125 months10 months-13.66%
9Sep 2018Dec 20184 monthsApr 20194 months8 months-12.75%
10Feb 1980Mar 19802 monthsJun 19803 months5 months-11.47%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
NameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
US Stock Market11.81%15.47%35.79%-37.04%-50.89%0.520.751.00
Long Term Treasury8.65%11.11%47.10%-13.03%-23.12%0.410.660.02

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
NameUS Stock MarketLong Term TreasuryPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
US Stock Market1.000.021.001.00
Long Term Treasury0.021.000.020.10

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
NamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
US Stock Market$12,051,560$10,687,653
Long Term Treasury$873,119

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
NamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
US Stock Market100.00%99.21%
Long Term Treasury0.79%

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
AverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year12.75%66.73%-43.18%12.47%64.35%-37.98%
3 years11.73%30.70%-16.27%11.63%29.83%-13.49%
5 years11.46%27.25%-6.23%11.45%26.81%-4.57%
7 years11.24%21.23%-3.02%11.28%21.07%-1.54%
10 years10.82%18.89%-2.57%10.89%18.04%-1.20%
15 years10.50%18.21%4.25%10.58%17.82%4.94%