Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected asset class level allocations in order to analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, drawdowns, and rolling returns. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

You can also use the portfolio backtesting tool to build and compare portfolios based on specific mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks.

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Asset Allocation 
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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 1995 - Dec 2019)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Asset Class Allocation
US Large Cap 35.00%
US Mid Cap 15.00%
US Small Cap 15.00%
Global ex-US Stock Market 12.50%
International ex-US Small Cap 12.50%
REIT 5.00%
Emerging Markets 5.00%
Save portfolio »
Portfolio 2
Asset Class Allocation
US Large Cap 100.00%
Save portfolio »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$10,000$97,934 9.56% 14.95%39.96%-39.86%-54.75% 0.530.760.97
Portfolio 2$10,000$111,062 10.11% 14.55%37.45%-37.02%-50.97% 0.580.840.99
   

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
NameTotal ReturnAnnualized ReturnAnnualized Standard Deviation
3 MonthYear To Date1 year3 year5 year10 yearFull3 year5 year
Portfolio 18.43%27.47%27.47%12.02%8.89%10.84%9.56%11.76%11.68%
Portfolio 29.03%31.33%31.33%15.12%11.55%13.40%10.11%12.10%11.98%
Trailing return and volatility are as of last full calendar month ending December 2019
Notes on results:
  • IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by Portfolio Visualizer regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
  • Asset allocation and diversification strategies do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
  • Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or actual taxes due on investment returns.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • Refer to the related documentation sections for more details on terms and definitions, methodology, and data sources.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdown analysis is calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationPortfolio 1Portfolio 2US Large CapUS Mid CapUS Small CapGlobal ex-US Stock MarketInternational ex-US Small CapREITEmerging Markets
ReturnBalanceReturnBalance
19952.54%23.68%$12,36837.45%$13,74537.45%33.22%28.74%3.98%1.16%12.13%0.56%
19963.32%16.76%$14,44022.88%$16,88922.88%18.97%18.12%4.68%0.95%33.84%15.83%
19971.70%16.32%$16,79633.19%$22,49433.19%25.66%24.59%-0.77%-22.72%18.77%-16.82%
19981.61%12.00%$18,81128.62%$28,93228.62%9.90%-2.61%15.60%5.27%-16.32%-18.12%
19992.68%22.14%$22,97521.07%$35,02721.07%15.32%23.13%29.92%19.04%-4.04%61.57%
20003.39%-3.25%$22,228-9.06%$31,855-9.06%18.10%-2.67%-15.61%-3.08%26.35%-27.56%
20011.55%-6.44%$20,797-12.02%$28,025-12.02%-0.50%3.10%-20.15%-4.59%12.35%-2.88%
20022.38%-14.29%$17,825-22.15%$21,819-22.15%-14.61%-20.02%-15.08%5.79%3.75%-7.43%
20031.88%39.96%$24,94828.50%$28,03828.50%34.14%45.63%40.34%66.48%35.66%57.65%
20043.26%19.60%$29,83610.74%$31,04910.74%20.35%19.90%20.84%34.80%30.76%26.12%
20053.42%11.91%$33,3904.77%$32,5324.77%13.93%7.36%15.57%23.23%11.89%32.05%
20062.54%19.96%$40,05715.64%$37,62015.64%13.60%15.66%26.64%28.39%35.07%29.39%
20074.08%6.39%$42,6175.39%$39,6465.39%6.02%1.16%15.52%2.95%-16.46%38.90%
20080.09%-39.86%$25,631-37.02%$24,969-37.02%-41.82%-36.07%-44.10%-41.68%-37.05%-52.81%
20092.72%36.53%$34,99426.49%$31,58226.49%40.22%36.12%36.73%47.52%29.58%75.98%
20101.50%20.15%$42,04414.91%$36,29214.91%25.46%27.72%11.12%25.60%28.30%18.86%
20112.96%-4.84%$40,0101.97%$37,0061.97%-2.11%-2.80%-14.56%-19.63%8.47%-18.78%
20121.74%17.28%$46,92415.82%$42,86215.82%15.80%18.04%18.14%20.73%17.53%18.64%
20131.50%25.97%$59,10832.18%$56,65332.18%35.00%37.62%15.04%16.60%2.31%-5.19%
20140.76%8.24%$63,97813.51%$64,30613.51%13.60%7.37%-4.24%-5.06%30.13%0.42%
20150.73%-1.56%$62,9821.25%$65,1111.25%-1.45%-3.78%-4.38%-0.01%2.22%-15.47%
20162.07%10.63%$69,67611.82%$72,80511.82%11.07%18.17%4.65%4.26%8.34%11.50%
20172.11%21.92%$84,94621.67%$88,58021.67%19.12%16.10%27.40%30.60%4.83%31.15%
20181.91%-9.56%$76,829-4.53%$84,569-4.53%-9.34%-9.43%-14.44%-18.47%-6.11%-14.71%
20192.29%27.47%$97,93431.33%$111,06231.33%30.86%27.22%21.43%21.36%28.78%20.13%
Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)0.86%0.89%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)10.80%11.28%
Geometric Mean (monthly)0.76%0.81%
Geometric Mean (annualized)9.56%10.11%
Standard Deviation (monthly)4.31%4.20%
Standard Deviation (annualized)14.95%14.55%
Downside Deviation (monthly)2.95%2.81%
Max. Drawdown-54.75%-50.97%
US Market Correlation0.970.99
Beta(*)0.970.96
Alpha (annualized)-0.16%0.32%
R293.18%97.74%
Sharpe Ratio0.530.58
Sortino Ratio0.760.84
Treynor Ratio (%)8.248.72
Calmar Ratio0.851.12
Active Return-0.56%-0.01%
Tracking Error3.93%2.25%
Information Ratio-0.14-0.01
Skewness-0.86-0.72
Excess Kurtosis2.611.28
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-7.10%-7.05%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-6.24%-6.01%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-10.35%-9.52%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)95.3196.15
Downside Capture Ratio (%)96.7795.07
Safe Withdrawal Rate9.42%10.45%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate6.73%7.20%
Positive Periods195 out of 300 (65.00%)201 out of 300 (67.00%)
Gain/Loss Ratio0.910.84
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEndPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
Asian CrisisJul 1997Jan 1998-5.07%-5.61%
Russian Debt DefaultJul 1998Oct 1998-17.40%-15.38%
Dotcom CrashMar 2000Oct 2002-30.78%-44.82%
Subprime CrisisNov 2007Mar 2009-54.75%-50.97%

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsApr 20112 years 2 months3 years 6 months-54.75%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 monthDec 20031 year 3 months3 years 4 months-30.78%
3May 2011Sep 20115 monthsDec 20121 year 3 months1 year 8 months-21.16%
4May 1998Aug 19984 monthsMar 19997 months11 months-19.09%
5Sep 2018Dec 20184 monthsApr 20194 months8 months-14.22%
6Jun 2015Feb 20169 monthsJul 20165 months1 year 2 months-12.03%
7Apr 2000May 20002 monthsAug 20003 months5 months-5.99%
8May 2019May 20191 monthJun 20191 month2 months-5.91%
9Jun 1996Jul 19962 monthsSep 19962 months4 months-5.77%
10Oct 1997Oct 19971 monthFeb 19984 months5 months-5.07%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsAug 20123 years 6 months4 years 10 months-50.97%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 monthNov 20064 years 2 months6 years 3 months-44.82%
3Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-15.38%
4Oct 2018Dec 20183 monthsApr 20194 months7 months-13.55%
5Aug 2015Sep 20152 monthsMay 20168 months10 months-8.38%
6Jan 2000Feb 20002 monthsMar 20001 month3 months-6.84%
7May 2019May 20191 monthJun 20191 month2 months-6.36%
8Jul 1999Sep 19993 monthsNov 19992 months5 months-6.25%
9Feb 2018Mar 20182 monthsJul 20184 months6 months-6.16%
10Aug 1997Aug 19971 monthNov 19973 months4 months-5.61%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
NameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
US Large Cap10.11%14.55%37.45%-37.02%-50.97%0.580.840.99
US Mid Cap11.57%16.29%40.22%-41.82%-54.14%0.610.900.95
US Small Cap10.25%18.73%45.63%-36.07%-53.95%0.490.720.90
Global ex-US Stock Market4.93%16.56%40.34%-44.10%-58.50%0.230.330.84
International ex-US Small Cap7.08%16.54%66.48%-41.68%-57.69%0.360.530.70
REIT10.37%19.14%35.66%-37.05%-68.28%0.490.720.56
Emerging Markets6.22%22.55%75.98%-52.81%-62.70%0.280.400.77

Portfolio Asset Performance

Performance of portfolio assets
NameTotal ReturnAnnualized Return
3 MonthYear To Date1 year3 year5 year10 year
US Large Cap9.03%31.33%31.33%15.12%11.55%13.40%
US Mid Cap6.83%30.86%30.86%12.22%9.12%12.93%
US Small Cap8.11%27.22%27.22%10.19%8.75%12.66%
Global ex-US Stock Market8.99%21.43%21.43%9.79%5.78%5.05%
International ex-US Small Cap11.12%21.36%21.36%8.92%6.14%6.16%
REIT0.58%28.78%28.78%8.22%7.02%11.82%
Emerging Markets11.26%20.13%20.13%10.35%4.84%3.28%
Trailing returns as of last calendar month ending December 2019

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
NameUS Large CapUS Mid CapUS Small CapGlobal ex-US Stock MarketInternational ex-US Small CapREITEmerging MarketsPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
US Large Cap1.000.910.830.830.680.540.740.941.00
US Mid Cap0.911.000.930.830.740.620.780.960.91
US Small Cap0.830.931.000.770.700.630.740.920.83
Global ex-US Stock Market0.830.830.771.000.890.550.880.920.83
International ex-US Small Cap0.680.740.700.891.000.550.790.840.68
REIT0.540.620.630.550.551.000.490.660.54
Emerging Markets0.740.780.740.880.790.491.000.850.74

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
NamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
US Large Cap$34,082$101,062
US Mid Cap$15,544
US Small Cap$14,138
Global ex-US Stock Market$6,709
International ex-US Small Cap$8,995
REIT$4,750
Emerging Markets$3,716
Return attribution decomposes portfolio gains into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to returns by each of the holdings.

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
NamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2
US Large Cap32.06%100.00%
US Mid Cap15.73%
US Small Cap17.30%
Global ex-US Stock Market12.74%
International ex-US Small Cap11.55%
REIT4.20%
Emerging Markets6.42%
Risk attribution decomposes portfolio risk into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to overall volatility by each of the holdings.

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodPortfolio 1Portfolio 2
AverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year10.52%67.24%-47.20%10.80%53.61%-43.32%
3 years9.10%28.98%-16.22%9.04%32.68%-16.14%
5 years8.49%23.85%-4.59%7.62%28.49%-6.73%
7 years8.23%16.18%0.17%6.82%17.13%-3.94%
10 years8.22%15.34%1.28%6.45%16.52%-3.51%
15 years8.18%11.47%6.37%6.37%10.39%3.64%