Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation

Portfolio Model Configuration

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Asset Class Allocation

Asset Allocation 
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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2007 - Dec 2022)

GBFly with TIPS

Asset Class Allocation
US Large Cap Growth 20.00%
US Small Cap Value 20.00%
Long Term Treasury 20.00%
Gold 20.00%
TIPS 20.00%
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GBFly with Short-Term Treasuries

Asset Class Allocation
US Large Cap Growth 20.00%
US Small Cap Value 20.00%
Long Term Treasury 20.00%
Gold 20.00%
Short Term Treasury 20.00%
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GBFly with Commodities

Asset Class Allocation
US Large Cap Growth 20.00%
US Small Cap Value 20.00%
Long Term Treasury 20.00%
Gold 20.00%
Commodities 20.00%
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Performance Summary

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioMarket Correlation
GBFly with TIPS$10,000$29,075 6.90% 9.07%19.95%-17.00%-20.74% 0.681.030.78
GBFly with Short-Term Treasuries$10,000$27,891 6.62% 8.35%19.05%-15.54%-19.07% 0.701.080.79
GBFly with Commodities$10,000$25,042 5.91% 11.02%21.46%-17.74%-31.78% 0.500.700.82

Portfolio Growth

   

Annual Returns

Trailing Returns

Trailing Returns
NameTotal ReturnAnnualized ReturnAnnualized Standard Deviation
3 MonthYear To Date1 year3 year5 year10 yearFull3 year5 year
GBFly with TIPS4.71%-17.00%-17.00%3.18%4.76%5.53%6.90%12.25%10.47%
GBFly with Short-Term Treasuries4.36%-15.54%-15.54%2.98%4.61%5.51%6.62%11.21%9.68%
GBFly with Commodities4.87%-9.78%-9.78%6.04%6.20%5.07%5.91%13.79%12.07%
Trailing return and volatility are as of last calendar month ending December 2022
Notes and Disclosures
  • IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by Portfolio Visualizer regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
  • Asset allocation and diversification strategies do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
  • Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, commissions, or actual taxes due on investment returns.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • Refer to the related documentation sections for more details on terms and definitions, methodology, and data sources.
  • Portfolio model information represents a blended portfolio consisting of the model's underlying positions and assigned weights provided by the user and rebalanced at the specified schedule. The results were constructed using net of fee mutual fund performance. Portfolio Visualizer does not provide preferential treatment to any specific security or investment.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • Compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) is the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio. It is calculated from the portfolio start and end balance and is thus impacted by any cashflows.
  • The time-weighted rate of return (TWRR) is a measure of the compound rate of growth in a portfolio. This is calculated from the holding period returns (e.g. monthly returns), and TWRR will thus not be impacted by cashflows. If there are no external cashflows, TWRR will equal CAGR.
  • The money-weighted rate of return (MWRR) is the internal rate of return (IRR) taking into account cashflows. This is the discount rate at which the present value of cash inflows equals the present value of cash outflows.
  • Standard deviation (Stdev) is used to measure the dispersion of returns around the mean and is often used as a measure of risk. A higher standard deviation implies greater the dispersion of data points around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio, and it is calculated by dividing the mean monthly excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the standard deviation of excess return, and the displayed value is annualized.
  • Sortino Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted return which is a modification of the Sharpe Ratio. While the latter is the ratio of average returns in excess of a risk-free rate divided by the standard deviation of those excess returns, the Sortino Ratio has the same denominator divided by the standard deviation of returns below the risk-free rate.
  • Treynor Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is similar to the Sharpe Ratio, but it uses portfolio beta (systematic risk) as the risk metric in the denominator.
  • Calmar Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is calculated as the annualized return over the past 36 months divided by the maximum drawdown over the past 36 months based on monthly returns.
  • Risk-free returns are calculated based on the Federal Reserve 3-Month Treasury Bill (secondary market) rates.
  • Downside deviation measures the downside volatility of the portfolio returns unlike standard deviation, which includes both upside and downside deviations. Downside deviation is calculated based on negative returns that hurt the portfolio performance.
  • Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other. Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much. Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution or returns from a normal Gaussian distribution shape about its mean. Negative skewness is associated with the left (typically negative returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the right tail; and positive skewness is associated with the right (typically positive returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the left tail.
  • Excess kurtosis is a measure of whether a data distribution is peaked or flat relative to a normal distribution. Distributions with high kurtosis tend to have a distinct peak near the mean, decline rather rapidly, and have heavy or fat tails.
  • A drawdown refers to the decline in value of a single investment or an investment portfolio from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown (Max Drawdown) is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. Drawdown values are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Value at Risk (VaR) measures the scale of loss at a given confidence level. For example, if the 95% confidence one-month VaR is 3%, there is 95% confidence that over the next month the portfolio will not lose more than 3%. Value at Risk can be calculated directly based on historical returns based on a given percentile or analytically based on the mean and standard deviation of the returns.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measures the scale of the expected loss once the specific Value at Risk (VaR) breakpoint has been breached, i.e., it calculates the average tail loss by taking a weighted average between the value at risk and losses exceeding the value at risk.
  • Beta is a measure of systematic risk and measures the volatility of a particular investment relative to the market or its benchmark. Alpha measures the active return of the investment compared to the market benchmark return. R-squared is the percentage of a portfolio's movements that can be explained by movements in the selected benchmark index.
  • Active return is the investment return minus the return of its benchmark. For periods longer than 12 months this is displayed as annualized value, i.e., annualized investment return minus annualized benchmark return.
  • Tracking error, also known as active risk, is the standard deviation of active return. This is displayed as annualized value based on the standard deviation of monthly active returns.
  • Information ratio is the active return divided by the tracking error. It measures whether the investment outperformed its benchmark consistently.
  • Gain/Loss ratio is a measure of downside risk, and it is calculated as the average positive return in up periods divided by the average negative return in down periods.
  • Upside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was up, and Downside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was down. An upside capture ratio greater than 100 would indicate that the fund outperformed its benchmark when the market was up, and a downside capture ratio below 100 would indicate that the fund lost less than its benchmark when the market was down. To calculate upside capture ratio a new series from the portfolio returns is constructed by dropping all time periods where the benchmark return is less than equal to zero. The up capture is then the quotient of the annualized return of the resulting manager series, divided by the annualized return of the resulting benchmark series. The downside capture ratio is calculated analogously.
  • All risk measures for the portfolio and portfolio assets are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • The results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation.

Annual Returns

Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationGBFly with TIPSGBFly with Short-Term TreasuriesGBFly with CommoditiesUS Large Cap GrowthUS Small Cap ValueLong Term TreasuryGoldTIPSShort Term TreasuryCommodities
ReturnBalanceReturnBalanceReturnBalance
20074.08%11.36%$11,13610.61%$11,06115.36%$11,53612.56%-7.07%9.24%30.45%11.59%7.89%31.62%
20080.09%-9.16%$10,116-7.25%$10,259-17.74%$9,490-38.32%-32.05%22.51%4.92%-2.85%6.68%-45.75%
20092.72%17.88%$11,92516.01%$11,90217.96%$11,19536.29%30.34%-12.06%24.03%10.80%1.44%11.22%
20101.50%17.23%$13,97916.52%$13,86817.43%$13,14616.96%24.82%8.93%29.27%6.17%2.63%7.17%
20112.96%9.92%$15,3667.73%$14,9406.62%$14,0161.71%-4.16%29.28%9.57%13.23%2.26%-3.28%
20121.74%10.46%$16,9739.24%$16,3208.99%$15,27616.89%18.56%3.46%6.60%6.77%0.69%-0.58%
20131.50%3.66%$17,5955.42%$17,2055.08%$16,05132.16%36.41%-13.03%-28.33%-8.92%-0.10%-1.83%
20140.76%10.15%$19,3819.53%$18,8452.80%$16,50013.47%10.39%25.27%-2.19%3.83%0.71%-32.96%
20150.73%-3.13%$18,775-2.67%$18,342-9.57%$14,9203.17%-4.77%-1.54%-10.67%-1.83%0.45%-34.06%
20162.07%8.88%$20,4428.18%$19,84210.00%$16,4125.99%24.65%1.21%8.03%4.52%1.00%10.12%
20172.11%12.71%$23,04012.22%$22,26712.92%$18,53327.65%11.67%8.59%12.81%2.81%0.40%3.89%
20181.91%-4.23%$22,066-3.66%$21,452-6.71%$17,290-3.46%-12.34%-1.90%-1.94%-1.49%1.35%-13.88%
20192.29%19.95%$26,46719.05%$25,53921.46%$21,00137.08%22.61%14.13%17.86%8.06%3.59%15.62%
20201.36%19.95%$31,74718.56%$30,28012.98%$23,72740.01%5.72%18.29%24.81%10.90%3.96%-23.94%
20217.04%10.35%$35,0329.06%$33,02416.99%$27,75827.10%27.96%-4.73%-4.15%5.56%-0.87%38.77%
20226.45%-17.00%$29,075-15.54%$27,891-9.78%$25,042-33.22%-9.43%-29.58%-0.77%-12.02%-4.71%24.08%

Risk and Return Metrics

Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricGBFly with TIPSGBFly with Short-Term TreasuriesGBFly with Commodities
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)0.59%0.56%0.53%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)7.34%6.99%6.56%
Geometric Mean (monthly)0.56%0.54%0.48%
Geometric Mean (annualized)6.90%6.62%5.91%
Standard Deviation (monthly)2.62%2.41%3.18%
Standard Deviation (annualized)9.07%8.35%11.02%
Downside Deviation (monthly)1.71%1.54%2.25%
Maximum Drawdown-20.74%-19.07%-31.78%
Stock Market Correlation0.780.790.82
Beta(*)0.430.400.55
Alpha (annualized)3.05%2.97%1.18%
R260.28%62.94%67.06%
Sharpe Ratio0.680.700.50
Sortino Ratio1.031.080.70
Treynor Ratio (%)14.5414.6510.01
Calmar Ratio0.150.160.36
Active Return-1.50%-1.78%-2.50%
Tracking Error11.01%11.06%9.76%
Information Ratio-0.14-0.16-0.26
Skewness-0.87-0.70-1.24
Excess Kurtosis3.582.455.09
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)3.74%3.43%4.61%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)3.72%3.40%4.70%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)5.76%5.23%7.41%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)44.5042.4752.24
Downside Capture Ratio (%)34.4332.8550.93
Safe Withdrawal Rate9.63%9.42%8.42%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate4.17%3.92%3.27%
Positive Periods118 out of 192 (61.46%)119 out of 192 (61.98%)117 out of 192 (60.94%)
Gain/Loss Ratio1.141.131.00
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are monthly values.

Drawdowns

Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEndGBFly with TIPSGBFly with Short-Term TreasuriesGBFly with Commodities
Subprime CrisisNov 2007Mar 2009-18.02%-15.92%-31.78%
COVID-19 StartJan 2020Mar 2020-7.02%-6.56%-13.52%

Drawdowns for GBFly with TIPS

Drawdowns for GBFly with TIPS (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 2022Sep 20229 months-20.74%
2Jun 2008Oct 20085 monthsSep 200911 months1 year 4 months-18.02%
3Feb 2020Mar 20202 monthsMay 20202 months4 months-7.02%
4Feb 2015Sep 20158 monthsMar 20166 months1 year 2 months-6.42%
5Sep 2018Dec 20184 monthsMar 20193 months7 months-6.38%
6Apr 2013Jun 20133 monthsOct 20134 months7 months-6.10%
7Aug 2016Nov 20164 monthsApr 20175 months9 months-4.89%
8Sep 2020Oct 20202 monthsNov 20201 month3 months-3.67%
9Sep 2011Sep 20111 monthOct 20111 month2 months-3.62%
10Sep 2014Sep 20141 monthDec 20143 months4 months-3.61%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for GBFly with Short-Term Treasuries

Drawdowns for GBFly with Short-Term Treasuries (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 2022Sep 20229 months-19.07%
2Jun 2008Feb 20099 monthsSep 20097 months1 year 4 months-15.92%
3Feb 2020Mar 20202 monthsMay 20202 months4 months-6.56%
4Sep 2018Dec 20184 monthsMar 20193 months7 months-5.86%
5Feb 2015Sep 20158 monthsMar 20166 months1 year 2 months-5.58%
6Apr 2013Jun 20133 monthsOct 20134 months7 months-4.77%
7Aug 2016Nov 20164 monthsApr 20175 months9 months-4.64%
8Sep 2011Sep 20111 monthOct 20111 month2 months-3.73%
9Sep 2020Oct 20202 monthsNov 20201 month3 months-3.51%
10Sep 2014Sep 20141 monthDec 20143 months4 months-3.18%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for GBFly with Commodities

Drawdowns for GBFly with Commodities (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jul 2008Feb 20098 monthsOct 20101 year 8 months2 years 4 months-31.78%
2Apr 2022Sep 20226 months-16.69%
3Jul 2014Jan 20161 year 7 monthsAug 20171 year 7 months3 years 2 months-15.64%
4Feb 2020Mar 20202 monthsJul 20204 months6 months-13.52%
5Sep 2018Dec 20184 monthsApr 20194 months8 months-10.06%
6May 2011Sep 20115 monthsNov 20112 months7 months-6.96%
7Apr 2013Jun 20133 monthsOct 20134 months7 months-5.91%
8May 2012May 20121 monthAug 20123 months4 months-5.01%
9Sep 2020Oct 20202 monthsNov 20201 month3 months-4.73%
10May 2019May 20191 monthJun 20191 month2 months-3.31%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
NameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioMarket Correlation
US Large Cap Growth9.59%17.28%40.01%-38.32%-47.19%0.570.840.96
US Small Cap Value7.26%20.56%36.41%-32.05%-56.13%0.400.570.94
Long Term Treasury3.73%12.36%29.28%-29.58%-40.02%0.290.46-0.18
Gold6.36%17.17%30.45%-28.33%-42.91%0.390.630.07
TIPS3.32%5.95%13.23%-12.02%-13.54%0.430.610.30
Short Term Treasury1.67%1.67%7.89%-4.71%-6.29%0.490.77-0.15
Commodities-3.89%23.74%38.77%-45.75%-88.68%-0.08-0.100.51

Portfolio Asset Performance

Performance of portfolio assets
NameTotal ReturnAnnualized Return
3 MonthYear To Date1 year3 year5 year10 year
US Large Cap Growth-0.18%-33.22%-33.22%5.92%9.48%12.65%
US Small Cap Value11.57%-9.43%-9.43%7.00%5.66%10.15%
Long Term Treasury-1.24%-29.58%-29.58%-7.41%-2.34%0.47%
Gold9.68%-0.77%-0.77%5.88%6.53%0.46%
TIPS1.76%-12.02%-12.02%0.99%1.86%0.90%
Short Term Treasury0.51%-4.71%-4.71%-0.60%0.61%0.55%
Commodities3.16%24.08%24.08%9.41%5.45%-4.25%
Trailing returns as of last calendar month ending December 2022

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
NameUS Large Cap GrowthUS Small Cap ValueLong Term TreasuryGoldTIPSShort Term TreasuryCommoditiesGBFly with TIPSGBFly with Short-Term TreasuriesGBFly with Commodities
US Large Cap Growth1.000.84-0.090.110.36-0.090.460.790.800.80
US Small Cap Value0.841.00-0.260.020.22-0.190.510.710.730.77
Long Term Treasury-0.09-0.261.000.300.580.62-0.360.320.290.05
Gold0.110.020.301.000.490.350.210.580.570.52
TIPS0.360.220.580.491.000.590.190.690.630.55
Short Term Treasury-0.09-0.190.620.350.591.00-0.190.260.240.07
Commodities0.460.51-0.360.210.19-0.191.000.390.390.72

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
NameGBFly with TIPSGBFly with Short-Term TreasuriesGBFly with Commodities
US Large Cap Growth$7,135$6,981$5,836
US Small Cap Value$5,470$5,318$4,436
Long Term Treasury$1,496$1,551$1,543
Gold$3,441$3,416$2,991
TIPS$1,533
Short Term Treasury$625
Commodities$236
Return attribution decomposes portfolio gains into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to returns by each of the assets.

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
NameGBFly with TIPSGBFly with Short-Term TreasuriesGBFly with Commodities
US Large Cap Growth29.63%32.59%24.63%
US Small Cap Value31.41%35.05%28.06%
Long Term Treasury8.54%8.29%1.14%
Gold21.53%23.12%15.89%
TIPS8.88%
Short Term Treasury0.94%
Commodities30.27%
Risk attribution decomposes portfolio risk into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to overall volatility by each of the assets.

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodGBFly with TIPSGBFly with Short-Term TreasuriesGBFly with Commodities
AverageHighLowAverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year7.84%29.54%-17.86%7.43%27.53%-16.52%6.93%33.25%-28.84%
3 years8.55%20.40%2.71%8.14%18.54%2.62%6.73%21.14%-2.00%
5 years8.12%14.63%4.48%7.76%13.68%4.33%6.26%14.76%1.50%
7 years7.81%11.05%5.26%7.50%10.39%5.29%5.73%8.67%2.06%
10 years7.90%9.68%4.96%7.57%9.18%4.96%5.94%8.30%4.38%
15 years7.51%8.72%6.46%7.16%8.29%6.19%6.30%7.11%5.27%

Annualized Rolling Return - 3 Years

Annualized Rolling Return - 5 Years