Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation

Asset Class Allocation Overview

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected asset class level allocations in order to analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, drawdowns, and rolling returns. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

You can also use the portfolio backtesting tool to build and compare portfolios based on specific mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks.

Portfolio Model Configuration

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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 1972 - Dec 2002)

Conservative (45% Stocks)

Asset Class Allocation
US Large Cap 45.00%
Intermediate Term Treasury 50.00%
Cash 5.00%
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Moderate (60% Stocks)

Asset Class Allocation
US Large Cap 60.00%
Intermediate Term Treasury 35.00%
Cash 5.00%
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Growth (75% Stocks)

Asset Class Allocation
US Large Cap 75.00%
Intermediate Term Treasury 20.00%
Cash 5.00%
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Performance Summary

PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRTWRRMWRRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioMarket Correlation
Conservative (45% Stocks)$1,000,000$5,375,659 5.58% 9.85%9.54%8.33%27.36%-8.86%-18.69%
(-24.15%) 		0.390.590.91
Moderate (60% Stocks)$1,000,000$5,798,409 5.83% 10.12%9.83%10.15%29.91%-13.75%-26.18%
(-31.13%) 		0.360.540.96
Growth (75% Stocks)$1,000,000$6,130,190 6.02% 10.31%10.06%12.17%32.46%-18.65%-33.34%
(-37.81%) 		0.330.490.98
* The number in parentheses shows the calculated value taking into account the percentage based periodic withdrawals.

Portfolio Growth

   

Annual Returns

Trailing Returns

NameTotal ReturnAnnualized ReturnAnnualized Standard Deviation
3 MonthYear To Date1 year3 year5 year10 yearFull3 year5 year
Conservative (45% Stocks)3.21%-2.81%-2.81%-0.37%4.80%8.86%9.85%6.90%7.56%
Moderate (60% Stocks)4.36%-8.25%-8.25%-4.34%3.43%9.05%10.12%9.75%10.41%
Growth (75% Stocks)5.70%-13.70%-13.70%-8.33%1.93%9.15%10.31%12.97%13.50%
Trailing return and volatility are as of last full calendar month ending December 2002

Annual Withdrawals

Notes and Disclosures
  • IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by Portfolio Visualizer regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
  • Asset allocation and diversification strategies do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
  • Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, commissions, or actual taxes due on investment returns.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • Refer to the related documentation sections for more details on terms and definitions, methodology, and data sources.
  • Portfolio model information represents a blended portfolio consisting of the model's underlying positions and assigned weights provided by the user and rebalanced at the specified schedule. The results were constructed using net of fee mutual fund performance. Portfolio Visualizer does not provide preferential treatment to any specific security or investment.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • Compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) is the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio. It is calculated from the portfolio start and end balance and is thus impacted by any cashflows.
  • The time-weighted rate of return (TWRR) is a measure of the compound rate of growth in a portfolio. This is calculated from the holding period returns (e.g. monthly returns), and TWRR will thus not be impacted by cashflows. If there are no external cashflows, TWRR will equal CAGR.
  • The money-weighted rate of return (MWRR) is the internal rate of return (IRR) taking into account cashflows. This is the discount rate at which the present value of cash inflows equals the present value of cash outflows.
  • Standard deviation (Stdev) is used to measure the dispersion of returns around the mean and is often used as a measure of risk. A higher standard deviation implies greater the dispersion of data points around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio, and it is calculated by dividing the mean monthly excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the standard deviation of excess return, and the displayed value is annualized.
  • Sortino Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted return which is a modification of the Sharpe Ratio. While the latter is the ratio of average returns in excess of a risk-free rate divided by the standard deviation of those excess returns, the Sortino Ratio has the same denominator divided by the standard deviation of returns below the risk-free rate.
  • Treynor Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is similar to the Sharpe Ratio, but it uses portfolio beta (systematic risk) as the risk metric in the denominator.
  • Calmar Ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It is calculated as the annualized return over the past 36 months divided by the maximum drawdown over the past 36 months based on monthly returns.
  • Risk-free returns are calculated based on the Federal Reserve 3-Month Treasury Bill (secondary market) rates.
  • Downside deviation measures the downside volatility of the portfolio returns unlike standard deviation, which includes both upside and downside deviations. Downside deviation is calculated based on negative returns that hurt the portfolio performance.
  • Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other. Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much. Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution or returns from a normal Gaussian distribution shape about its mean. Negative skewness is associated with the left (typically negative returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the right tail; and positive skewness is associated with the right (typically positive returns) tail of the distribution extending further than the left tail.
  • Excess kurtosis is a measure of whether a data distribution is peaked or flat relative to a normal distribution. Distributions with high kurtosis tend to have a distinct peak near the mean, decline rather rapidly, and have heavy or fat tails.
  • A drawdown refers to the decline in value of a single investment or an investment portfolio from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown (Max Drawdown) is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. Drawdown values are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Value at Risk (VaR) measures the scale of loss at a given confidence level. If the 5% VaR is -3% the portfolio return is expected to be greater than -3% 95% of the time and less than -3% 5% of the time. Value at Risk can be calculated directly based on historical returns based on a given percentile or analytically based on the mean and standard deviation of the returns.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measures the scale of the expected loss once the specific Value at Risk (VaR) breakpoint has been breached, i.e., it calculates the average tail loss by taking a weighted average between the value at risk and losses exceeding the value at risk.
  • Beta is a measure of systematic risk and measures the volatility of a particular investment relative to the market or its benchmark. Alpha measures the active return of the investment compared to the market benchmark return. R-squared is the percentage of a portfolio's movements that can be explained by movements in the selected benchmark index.
  • Active return is the investment return minus the return of its benchmark. For periods longer than 12 months this is displayed as annualized value, i.e., annualized investment return minus annualized benchmark return.
  • Tracking error, also known as active risk, is the standard deviation of active return. This is displayed as annualized value based on the standard deviation of monthly active returns.
  • Information ratio is the active return divided by the tracking error. It measures whether the investment outperformed its benchmark consistently.
  • Gain/Loss ratio is a measure of downside risk, and it is calculated as the average positive return in up periods divided by the average negative return in down periods.
  • Upside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was up, and Downside Capture Ratio measures how well the fund performed relative to the benchmark when the market was down. An upside capture ratio greater than 100 would indicate that the fund outperformed its benchmark when the market was up, and a downside capture ratio below 100 would indicate that the fund lost less than its benchmark when the market was down. To calculate upside capture ratio a new series from the portfolio returns is constructed by dropping all time periods where the benchmark return is less than equal to zero. The up capture is then the quotient of the annualized return of the resulting manager series, divided by the annualized return of the resulting benchmark series. The downside capture ratio is calculated analogously.
  • All risk measures for the portfolio and portfolio assets are calculated based on monthly returns.
  • Drawdown analysis is calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows.
  • The results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation.
  • Monthly withdrawal of 0.33% of portfolio balance is reflected in the CAGR and maximum drawdown shown above.

Annual Returns

YearInflationConservative (45% Stocks)Moderate (60% Stocks)Growth (75% Stocks)US Large CapIntermediate Term TreasuryCash
ReturnBalanceCashflowReturnBalanceCashflowReturnBalanceCashflow
19723.41%10.10%$1,058,144-$40,74912.53%$1,081,548-$41,23814.97%$1,104,953-$41,72618.95%2.72%4.13%
19738.71%-4.69%$969,337-$39,664-7.78%$958,571-$39,877-10.88%$946,412-$40,061-16.18%4.47%7.17%
197412.34%-8.86%$849,091-$35,136-13.75%$794,576-$33,881-18.65%$739,984-$32,597-26.93%5.70%8.14%
19756.94%20.61%$984,263-$37,97425.05%$954,962-$36,82429.49%$920,914-$35,49336.95%7.36%6.09%
19764.86%18.02%$1,116,428-$42,20319.58%$1,097,553-$41,52921.15%$1,072,271-$40,60924.18%13.75%5.19%
19776.70%-2.74%$1,043,571-$41,983-4.08%$1,011,880-$40,812-5.41%$974,846-$39,421-7.84%1.04%5.34%
19789.02%3.59%$1,038,975-$41,3204.30%$1,014,317-$40,1865.01%$983,835-$38,8315.87%1.15%7.45%
197913.29%11.32%$1,111,631-$43,27013.23%$1,103,812-$42,61115.13%$1,088,647-$41,68818.05%5.35%10.49%
198012.52%16.41%$1,243,742-$46,29620.77%$1,281,193-$46,78225.12%$1,309,155-$46,93931.92%2.88%12.15%
19818.92%3.13%$1,232,747-$48,1650.93%$1,242,871-$49,251-1.26%$1,242,411-$49,954-5.21%9.41%15.29%
19823.83%25.58%$1,487,847-$51,37724.05%$1,481,856-$50,98522.53%$1,463,105-$50,15320.97%31.13%11.45%
19833.79%12.64%$1,610,806-$63,02015.06%$1,638,652-$63,94217.47%$1,651,814-$64,29521.29%5.22%9.03%
19843.95%10.81%$1,715,542-$64,0349.49%$1,724,403-$64,7168.17%$1,717,292-$64,8066.21%15.01%10.17%
19853.80%25.57%$2,070,424-$74,91626.92%$2,103,452-$75,81628.26%$2,117,019-$76,01531.23%22.24%7.88%
19861.10%15.99%$2,308,165-$89,99016.44%$2,353,949-$92,05216.88%$2,378,153-$93,27618.06%15.10%6.28%
19874.43%3.19%$2,289,202-$97,5713.66%$2,345,301-$102,3054.14%$2,380,217-$106,1834.71%1.55%5.93%
19884.42%10.27%$2,426,071-$95,09611.91%$2,522,597-$98,30713.56%$2,597,777-$100,66416.22%5.26%6.80%
19894.65%21.80%$2,840,147-$106,55824.33%$3,014,407-$112,51926.86%$3,167,330-$117,64531.36%14.52%8.61%
19906.11%3.63%$2,828,757-$110,0311.71%$2,946,756-$115,598-0.21%$3,037,865-$120,219-3.32%9.46%7.89%
19913.06%21.87%$3,313,314-$122,05724.01%$3,512,079-$129,12626.15%$3,683,093-$135,15830.22%15.97%5.71%
19922.90%7.41%$3,420,375-$131,6077.36%$3,623,765-$139,2417.30%$3,798,334-$145,7487.42%7.78%3.57%
19932.75%10.32%$3,626,617-$142,08810.09%$3,834,231-$149,9019.86%$4,010,510-$156,4569.89%11.43%3.05%
19942.67%-1.42%$3,435,944-$138,889-0.60%$3,663,058-$147,6370.23%$3,863,281-$155,2581.18%-4.33%4.20%
19952.54%27.36%$4,205,749-$153,93429.91%$4,573,542-$166,05132.46%$4,918,237-$177,17537.45%20.44%5.71%
19963.32%11.51%$4,507,540-$170,72214.66%$5,039,919-$188,85717.80%$5,568,371-$206,53722.88%1.92%5.17%
19971.70%19.68%$5,184,705-$193,77623.31%$5,973,112-$221,29326.95%$6,793,922-$249,61133.19%8.96%5.22%
19981.61%18.43%$5,901,404-$219,31121.13%$6,953,901-$255,21523.83%$8,085,908-$293,19128.62%10.61%4.97%
19992.68%7.96%$6,123,290-$236,14511.65%$7,461,881-$282,88815.34%$8,963,231-$334,31921.07%-3.52%4.77%
20003.39%3.24%$6,075,839-$242,160-0.22%$7,155,690-$291,482-3.69%$8,297,096-$345,787-9.06%14.03%5.99%
20011.55%-1.45%$5,754,775-$232,400-4.39%$6,575,674-$267,548-7.32%$7,390,470-$303,087-12.02%7.55%3.70%
20022.38%-2.81%$5,375,659-$218,150-8.25%$5,798,409-$241,647-13.70%$6,130,190-$263,024-22.15%14.15%1.65%

Risk and Return Metrics

MetricConservative (45% Stocks)Moderate (60% Stocks)Growth (75% Stocks)
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)0.81%0.85%0.88%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)10.22%10.68%11.12%
Geometric Mean (monthly)0.79%0.81%0.82%
Geometric Mean (annualized)9.85%10.12%10.31%
Standard Deviation (monthly)2.41%2.93%3.51%
Standard Deviation (annualized)8.33%10.15%12.17%
Downside Deviation (monthly)1.30%1.69%2.12%
Maximum Drawdown-18.69%-26.18%-33.34%
Stock Market Correlation0.910.960.98
Beta(*)0.470.600.74
Alpha (annualized)4.48%3.37%2.24%
R282.18%91.99%96.00%
Sharpe Ratio0.390.360.33
Sortino Ratio0.590.540.49
Treynor Ratio (%)6.956.085.52
Calmar Ratio-0.04-0.21-0.27
Active Return-0.61%-0.34%-0.14%
Tracking Error9.26%7.00%4.86%
Information Ratio-0.07-0.05-0.03
Skewness-0.08-0.25-0.33
Excess Kurtosis0.971.451.81
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-3.22%-3.77%-4.87%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-3.14%-3.97%-4.89%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-4.30%-5.58%-7.04%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)54.2365.3976.76
Downside Capture Ratio (%)37.8053.6769.32
Safe Withdrawal Rate4.56%4.63%4.65%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate4.51%4.74%4.91%
Positive Periods236 out of 372 (63.44%)231 out of 372 (62.10%)227 out of 372 (61.02%)
Gain/Loss Ratio1.391.291.23
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns

Historical Market Stress Periods

Stress PeriodStartEndConservative (45% Stocks)Moderate (60% Stocks)Growth (75% Stocks)
Oil CrisisOct 1973Mar 1974-5.74%-7.58%-9.51%
Black Monday PeriodSep 1987Nov 1987-14.81%-19.42%-23.60%
Asian CrisisJul 1997Jan 1998-3.25%-3.93%-4.57%
Russian Debt DefaultJul 1998Oct 1998-5.74%-8.53%-11.22%
Dotcom CrashMar 2000Oct 2002-9.28%-20.26%-30.41%

Drawdowns for Conservative (45% Stocks)

RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 1973Sep 19741 year 9 monthsMay 19758 months2 years 5 months-18.69%
2Sep 1987Nov 19873 monthsJan 19891 year 2 months1 year 5 months-14.81%
3Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 month-9.28%
4Feb 1980Mar 19802 monthsMay 19802 months4 months-7.16%
5Apr 1981Sep 19816 monthsNov 19812 months8 months-6.47%
6Jul 1975Sep 19753 monthsDec 19753 months6 months-6.44%
7Jan 1977Feb 19781 year 2 monthsJul 19785 months1 year 7 months-6.04%
8Aug 1990Sep 19902 monthsDec 19903 months5 months-5.95%
9Feb 1994Jun 19945 monthsFeb 19958 months1 year 1 month-5.93%
10Oct 1979Oct 19791 monthJan 19803 months4 months-5.76%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Moderate (60% Stocks)

RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 1973Sep 19741 year 9 monthsJun 19759 months2 years 6 months-26.18%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 month-20.26%
3Sep 1987Nov 19873 monthsApr 19891 year 5 months1 year 8 months-19.42%
4Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsOct 19982 months4 months-8.53%
5Jan 1977Feb 19781 year 2 monthsJul 19785 months1 year 7 months-8.42%
6Jul 1975Sep 19753 monthsJan 19764 months7 months-8.08%
7Dec 1980Sep 198110 monthsNov 19812 months1 year-8.03%
8Aug 1990Sep 19902 monthsJan 19914 months6 months-7.98%
9Feb 1980Mar 19802 monthsMay 19802 months4 months-7.70%
10Sep 1978Oct 19782 monthsMar 19795 months7 months-6.29%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Growth (75% Stocks)

RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Jan 1973Sep 19741 year 9 monthsJan 19761 year 4 months3 years 1 month-33.34%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 month-30.41%
3Sep 1987Nov 19873 monthsApr 19891 year 5 months1 year 8 months-23.60%
4Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-11.22%
5Jan 1977Feb 19781 year 2 monthsJul 19785 months1 year 7 months-10.76%
6Dec 1980Sep 198110 monthsAug 198211 months1 year 9 months-10.12%
7Jun 1990Sep 19904 monthsJan 19914 months8 months-10.08%
8Feb 1980Mar 19802 monthsMay 19802 months4 months-8.22%
9Sep 1978Oct 19782 monthsMar 19795 months7 months-7.43%
10Sep 1986Sep 19861 monthJan 19874 months5 months-6.70%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

NameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioMarket Correlation
US Large Cap10.58%15.88%37.45%-26.93%-44.87%0.300.450.99
Intermediate Term Treasury8.73%6.39%31.13%-4.33%-10.70%0.330.500.16
Cash6.71%0.81%15.29%1.65%0.00%N/AN/A-0.01

Portfolio Asset Performance

NameTotal ReturnAnnualized Return
3 MonthYear To Date1 year3 year5 year10 year
US Large Cap8.39%-22.15%-22.15%-14.60%-0.61%9.27%
Intermediate Term Treasury0.51%14.15%14.15%11.87%8.36%7.85%
Cash0.35%1.65%1.65%3.76%4.21%4.44%
Trailing returns as of last calendar month ending December 2002

Monthly Correlations

NameUS Large CapIntermediate Term TreasuryCashConservative (45% Stocks)Moderate (60% Stocks)Growth (75% Stocks)
US Large Cap1.000.17-0.010.920.970.99
Intermediate Term Treasury0.171.000.110.530.380.28
Cash-0.010.111.000.040.020.01

Portfolio Return Decomposition

NameConservative (45% Stocks)Moderate (60% Stocks)Growth (75% Stocks)
US Large Cap$3,926,389$5,494,793$7,153,750
Intermediate Term Treasury$3,588,504$2,725,617$1,677,836
Cash$231,357$248,115$264,530
Return attribution decomposes portfolio gains into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to returns by each of the assets.

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

NameConservative (45% Stocks)Moderate (60% Stocks)Growth (75% Stocks)
US Large Cap79.46%91.52%97.11%
Intermediate Term Treasury20.52%8.47%2.89%
Cash0.02%0.01%0.00%
Risk attribution decomposes portfolio risk into its constituent parts and identifies the contribution to overall volatility by each of the assets.

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling Returns

Roll PeriodConservative (45% Stocks)Moderate (60% Stocks)Growth (75% Stocks)
AverageHighLowAverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year10.44%40.51%-17.61%10.96%45.03%-24.01%11.47%49.63%-30.27%
3 years11.00%23.23%-1.48%11.63%25.74%-4.34%12.22%28.23%-8.33%
5 years11.42%21.01%3.40%12.15%23.08%2.18%12.84%25.14%0.85%
7 years11.63%18.02%4.38%12.38%18.84%3.98%13.09%19.93%3.41%
10 years11.88%15.24%5.78%12.57%16.12%5.60%13.22%16.99%5.23%
15 years12.05%14.53%9.17%12.75%15.79%9.13%13.41%17.03%9.02%

Annualized Rolling Return - 3 Years

Annualized Rolling Return - 5 Years