Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation

This portfolio backtesting tool allows you to construct one or more portfolios based on the selected asset class level allocations in order to analyze and backtest portfolio returns, risk characteristics, drawdowns, and rolling returns. You can compare up to three different portfolios against the selected benchmark, and you can also specify any periodic contribution or withdrawal cashflows and the preferred portfolio rebalancing strategy.

You can also use the portfolio backtesting tool to build and compare portfolios based on specific mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks.

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Asset Allocation
US Stock Market
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US Large Cap
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US Large Cap Value
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US Large Cap Growth
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US Mid Cap
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US Mid Cap Value
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US Mid Cap Growth
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US Small Cap
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US Small Cap Value
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US Small Cap Growth
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US Micro Cap
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Global ex-US Stock Market
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Intl Developed ex-US Market
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International ex-US Small Cap
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International ex-US Value
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European Stocks
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Pacific Stocks
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Emerging Markets
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Cash
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Short Term Treasury
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Intermediate Term Treasury
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10-year Treasury
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Long Term Treasury
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Total US Bond Market
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TIPS
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Global Bonds (Unhedged)
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Global Bonds (USD Hedged)
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Short-Term Investment Grade
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Corporate Bonds
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Long-Term Corporate Bonds
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High Yield Corporate Bonds
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Short-Term Tax-Exempt
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Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt
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Long-Term Tax-Exempt
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REIT
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Gold
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Precious Metals
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Commodities
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Total
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Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 1987 - Dec 2015)

Portfolio Allocations

Portfolio 1
Asset Class Allocation
US Stock Market 100.00%
Save asset allocation »
Portfolio 2
Asset Class Allocation
US Stock Market 80.00%
Total US Bond Market 20.00%
Save asset allocation »
Portfolio 3
Asset Class Allocation
US Stock Market 90.00%
Gold 10.00%
Save asset allocation »

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
PortfolioInitial BalanceFinal BalanceCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
Portfolio 1$10,000$152,617 9.85% 15.32%35.79%-37.04%-50.89% 0.470.671.00
Portfolio 2$10,000$134,756 9.38% 12.32%32.26%-28.62%-41.22% 0.520.741.00
Portfolio 3$10,000$138,781 9.49% 13.81%32.30%-32.84%-45.41% 0.490.690.99
   
Notes on results:
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which may vary. All use is subject to terms of service.
  • Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of the investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate over time.
  • All portfolio returns presented are hypothetical and backtested. Hypothetical returns do not reflect trading costs, transaction fees, or taxes.
  • The results are based on information from a variety of sources we consider reliable, but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.
  • The results do not constitute investment advice or recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
  • The results are based on the total return of assets and assume that all received dividends and distributions are reinvested.
  • CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • Stdev = Annualized standard deviation of monthly returns
  • Sharpe and Sortino ratios are calculated and annualized from monthly excess returns over risk free rate (3-month treasury bill)
  • Stock market correlation is based on the correlation of monthly returns
  • Drawdown analysis is calculated based on monthly returns excluding cashflows
  • The backtested results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets to match the specified allocation
Annual returns for the configured portfolios
YearInflationReturnBalanceUS Stock MarketTotal US Bond MarketGold
Portfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3Portfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
19874.43%2.61%2.40%4.81%$10,261$10,240$10,4812.61%1.54%24.53%
19884.42%17.32%15.32%14.06%$12,038$11,809$11,95417.32%7.35%-15.26%
19894.65%28.12%25.22%25.02%$15,423$14,788$14,94528.12%13.64%-2.84%
19906.11%-6.08%-3.13%-5.78%$14,486$14,325$14,081-6.08%8.65%-3.11%
19913.06%32.39%28.96%28.30%$19,178$18,473$18,06632.39%15.25%-8.56%
19922.90%9.11%8.71%7.62%$20,925$20,083$19,4439.11%7.14%-5.73%
19932.75%10.62%10.44%11.33%$23,148$22,179$21,64610.62%9.68%17.68%
19942.67%-0.17%-0.67%-0.37%$23,109$22,031$21,566-0.17%-2.66%-2.17%
19952.54%35.79%32.26%32.30%$31,379$29,140$28,53335.79%18.18%0.98%
19963.32%20.96%17.49%18.41%$37,956$34,235$33,78520.96%3.58%-4.59%
19971.70%30.99%26.68%25.75%$49,721$43,370$42,48630.99%9.44%-21.41%
19981.61%23.26%20.33%20.86%$61,288$52,186$51,34723.26%8.58%-0.83%
19992.68%23.81%18.90%21.52%$75,882$62,049$62,39523.81%-0.76%0.85%
20003.39%-10.57%-6.18%-10.06%$67,858$58,213$56,117-10.57%11.39%-5.44%
20011.55%-10.97%-7.09%-9.79%$60,417$54,088$50,621-10.97%8.43%0.75%
20022.38%-20.96%-15.12%-16.31%$47,753$45,911$42,366-20.96%8.26%25.57%
20031.88%31.35%25.88%30.21%$62,726$57,792$55,16331.35%3.97%19.89%
20043.26%12.52%10.86%11.73%$70,576$64,068$61,63312.52%4.24%4.65%
20053.42%5.98%5.26%7.16%$74,797$67,441$66,0455.98%2.40%17.76%
20062.54%15.51%13.26%16.21%$86,399$76,385$76,75515.51%4.27%22.55%
20074.08%5.49%5.78%7.99%$91,142$80,797$82,8845.49%6.92%30.45%
20080.09%-37.04%-28.62%-32.84%$57,385$57,673$55,664-37.04%5.05%4.92%
20092.72%28.70%24.15%28.23%$73,853$71,598$71,37828.70%5.93%24.03%
20101.50%17.09%14.96%18.31%$86,477$82,309$84,44917.09%6.42%29.27%
20112.96%0.96%2.28%1.82%$87,309$84,186$85,9880.96%7.56%9.57%
20121.74%16.25%13.81%15.29%$101,500$95,814$99,13316.25%4.05%6.60%
20131.50%33.35%26.23%27.18%$135,350$120,943$126,07933.35%-2.26%-28.33%
20140.76%12.43%11.09%10.97%$152,173$134,362$139,90712.43%5.76%-2.19%
20150.73%0.29%0.29%-0.80%$152,617$134,756$138,7810.29%0.30%-10.67%
Portfolio return and risk metrics
MetricPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
Arithmetic Mean (monthly)0.89%0.81%0.84%
Arithmetic Mean (annualized)11.17%10.22%10.55%
Geometric Mean (monthly)0.79%0.75%0.76%
Geometric Mean (annualized)9.85%9.38%9.49%
Volatility (monthly)4.42%3.56%3.99%
Volatility (annualized)15.32%12.32%13.81%
Downside Deviation (monthly)3.02%2.38%2.70%
Max. Drawdown-50.89%-41.22%-45.41%
US Market Correlation1.001.000.99
Beta(*)1.000.800.89
Alpha (annualized)0.00%1.24%0.56%
R2100.00%99.51%98.70%
Sharpe Ratio0.470.520.49
Sortino Ratio0.670.740.69
Treynor Ratio (%)7.277.997.50
Calmar Ratio1.641.691.37
Active Return0.00%-0.47%-0.36%
Tracking Error0.00%3.15%2.25%
Information RatioN/A-0.15-0.16
Skewness-0.93-0.94-0.97
Excess Kurtosis2.903.043.31
Historical Value-at-Risk (5%)-7.12%-5.57%-6.32%
Analytical Value-at-Risk (5%)-6.39%-5.04%-5.72%
Conditional Value-at-Risk (5%)-10.47%-8.23%-9.34%
Upside Capture Ratio (%)100.0082.0989.68
Downside Capture Ratio (%)100.0078.6588.34
Safe Withdrawal Rate8.94%8.43%8.35%
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate6.55%6.15%6.24%
Positive Periods221 out of 348 (63.51%)225 out of 348 (64.66%)224 out of 348 (64.37%)
Gain/Loss Ratio0.960.980.95
* US stock market is used as the benchmark for calculations. Value-at-risk metrics are based on monthly values.

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods

Drawdowns for Historical Market Stress Periods
Stress PeriodStartEndPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
Black Monday PeriodSep 1987Nov 1987-29.34%-24.55%-26.02%
Asian CrisisJul 1997Jan 1998-3.72%-3.22%-3.60%
Russian Debt DefaultJul 1998Oct 1998-17.57%-13.95%-16.69%
Dotcom CrashMar 2000Oct 2002-44.11%-33.48%-39.12%
Subprime CrisisNov 2007Mar 2009-50.89%-41.22%-45.41%

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1

Drawdowns for Portfolio 1 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsMar 20123 years 1 month4 years 5 months-50.89%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 monthApr 20063 years 7 months5 years 8 months-44.11%
3Sep 1987Nov 19873 monthsMay 19891 year 6 months1 year 9 months-29.34%
4Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-17.57%
5Jun 1990Oct 19905 monthsFeb 19914 months9 months-16.20%
6Jun 2015Sep 20154 months-8.88%
7Apr 2000May 20002 monthsAug 20003 months5 months-8.44%
8Feb 1994Jun 19945 monthsFeb 19958 months1 year 1 month-7.43%
9Jan 1990Jan 19901 monthMay 19904 months5 months-7.01%
10Apr 2012May 20122 monthsAug 20123 months5 months-6.85%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2

Drawdowns for Portfolio 2 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsFeb 20112 years3 years 4 months-41.22%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 monthJul 20052 years 10 months4 years 11 months-33.48%
3Sep 1987Nov 19873 monthsApr 19891 year 5 months1 year 8 months-24.55%
4Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-13.95%
5May 2011Sep 20115 monthsFeb 20125 months10 months-13.48%
6Jun 1990Oct 19905 monthsFeb 19914 months9 months-12.23%
7Jun 2015Sep 20154 months-7.11%
8Feb 1994Jun 19945 monthsFeb 19958 months1 year 1 month-6.95%
9Apr 2000May 20002 monthsAug 20003 months5 months-6.90%
10Jan 1990Jan 19901 monthMay 19904 months5 months-5.99%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Drawdowns for Portfolio 3

Drawdowns for Portfolio 3 (worst 10)
RankStartEndLengthRecovery ByRecovery TimeUnderwater PeriodDrawdown
1Nov 2007Feb 20091 year 4 monthsFeb 20112 years3 years 4 months-45.41%
2Sep 2000Sep 20022 years 1 monthNov 20053 years 2 months5 years 3 months-39.12%
3Sep 1987Nov 19873 monthsMay 19891 year 6 months1 year 9 months-26.02%
4Jul 1998Aug 19982 monthsNov 19983 months5 months-16.69%
5May 2011Sep 20115 monthsFeb 20125 months10 months-15.59%
6Jun 1990Oct 19905 monthsFeb 19914 months9 months-14.33%
7Jun 2015Sep 20154 months-8.63%
8Apr 2000May 20002 monthsAug 20003 months5 months-7.81%
9Apr 2012May 20122 monthsAug 20123 months5 months-6.81%
10Feb 1994Jun 19945 monthsFeb 19958 months1 year 1 month-6.47%
Worst 10 drawdowns included above

Portfolio Assets

Performance statistics for portfolio components
NameCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino RatioUS Mkt Correlation
US Stock Market9.85%15.32%35.79%-37.04%-50.89%0.470.671.00
Total US Bond Market6.18%3.88%18.18%-2.66%-5.86%0.711.130.08
Gold3.34%15.30%30.45%-28.33%-48.26%0.070.11-0.04

Monthly Correlations

Correlations for the portfolio assets
NameUS Stock MarketTotal US Bond MarketGoldPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
US Stock Market1.000.08-0.041.001.000.99
Total US Bond Market0.081.000.100.080.140.09
Gold-0.040.101.00-0.04-0.030.08

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Portfolio return decomposition
NamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
US Stock Market$142,617$109,235$121,878
Total US Bond Market$15,520
Gold$6,903

Portfolio Risk Decomposition

Portfolio risk decomposition
NamePortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
US Stock Market100.00%99.12%99.17%
Total US Bond Market0.88%
Gold0.83%

Annual Asset Returns

Rolling returns summary
Roll PeriodPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3
AverageHighLowAverageHighLowAverageHighLow
1 year11.35%35.79%-37.04%10.34%32.26%-28.62%10.66%32.30%-32.84%
3 years10.67%29.10%-14.31%10.02%25.33%-9.55%10.16%25.36%-12.11%
5 years9.95%26.84%-1.76%9.51%23.01%-0.04%9.64%23.67%-0.25%
7 years9.45%20.21%-0.73%9.13%17.49%0.92%9.27%18.12%1.37%
10 years9.32%17.67%-0.66%9.03%16.02%1.00%9.17%15.69%0.81%
15 years8.39%12.74%4.75%8.32%11.91%5.29%8.36%11.42%5.53%
Result statistics are based on annualized rolling returns over full calendar year periods